Latest EB2-I Approval Progress
Just a reminder for those that don't know.
I am keeping a running total of EB2-I approvals.
I update the figures for Trackitt approvals in the FACTS and DATA section 2-3 times a day. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ad-projections
The last post date doesn't change, because it is an edit, so it isn't very obvious.
Some people might find it interesting to follow the progress.
Questions - using up visa numbers, I-485 inventory statistics
How do we know if USCIS/DOL have used all visa numbers for this year by end of the year (September)?
Any news on the latest I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics that is published on uscis.gov website? Last it was published on Jan 5th, 2011. I read somewhere they are going to keep publishing it every 3 months.
btw, appreciate all the contributors to this blog for their work.
Beyond the Current Backlog
Teddy, Bieber, Q, Veni,
I think it is extremely interesting what will happen and worthy of discussion, not least because we all probably have our own views.
Let's hope that there are enough applications already to cover SOFAD, because I think it is too late now to generate any more that will be ready to adjudicate, bar porting cases that already have an I-485.
IF I were CO I would consider the following:
1) Move the Cut Off Date in September (or October if the dates don't get close to the end of the known demand) to generate the realistic Demand required for FY2012.
2) Retrogress the dates back in the following month consistent with using the initial limited allocation.
3) In late March, assess whether sufficient Demand has been generated for the year, taking into account the likely number of spare visas. 5/6 months into the year should be long enough to make an educated guess.
Then either:
a) If insufficient Demand appears to have been generated, taking into account how other Countries/Categories are performing and the best estimate of likely spare visas, move the May VB forward to generate the extra Demand required or;
b) If sufficient Demand appears to exist, continue moving the VB in line with the initial allocation.
5/6 months from the first movement allows the actual Demand to realistically appear.
Option (a) allows a further 5 months for additional Demand to be ready for adjudication, if necessary.
Option (b) allows for the eventuality that either more Demand was generated than expected, or that less visas are available than initially thought.
4) Spillover gets allocated in July to September and the September Cut Off date is advanced sufficiently to generate the next year's Demand, safe in the knowledge that none of the later applications will be ripe for adjudication within the current FY.
5) Rinse and repeat each year.
Once the Cut Off Date moves beyond a person's PD and assuming DOS get their estimates/calculations correct, most people could have a reasonable expectation that they would get their approval the next year. That gives a certain stability to the system.
At some point, if it hasn't happened already, USCIS will have to give DOS a breakdown of approved I-140 applications held by USCIS, rather than the NVC, which DOS already have. With this information, DOS calculations could be quite accurate. The unknown variable would be the number of spare visas available in any given year.
I think the above is broadly within the law, but the law was never designed to deal with this eventuality, so it needs to be bent a little bit whatever DOS decide to do.
What to you think?
How would you tackle it?
