Ok got it.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
My calculations differ way too much from your and ofcourse Spectators calculations - so I will leave it at that.
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Ok got it.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
My calculations differ way too much from your and ofcourse Spectators calculations - so I will leave it at that.
I wish he is given a chance to be an acting chief a single day, we can expect paragraphs and paragraphs of brief from him.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Chinese are expecting India to join them at the end of this FY, their target PD is same as Q's September 2008. They think there is no retrogression for EB2C hereafter.
Sun, same here :)Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Kanmani - ;). I know we have a common view on this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
May we hear your latest thinking?
I won't comment, if you prefer.
I do think it is important to hear all views and I respect both Kanmani and your views.
Send me a PM if you prefer and really don't want to air your thoughts on the forum.
Dont get my hopes up !!! :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Do you know if that's a prediction or they heard from CO (I remember some of them communicating with CO in the past)Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Please allow me to clarify my position on this. I no longer consider Sep 2008 as average case scenario. To me that is best case scenario now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Q, I think early 2013 is best case scenario,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Its seems very difficult to imagine it will cross march 2008
Assuming that CO decides to make a big jump in September, what would the dates be for EB2-I? I know the chances of it happening is very minimal but want to know how big a jump that will be if it were to happen.
Thanks Q, Spec and Indiani for your comments on my numbers. When I reevaluate, I am still landing somewhere in Q1 of CY 2008. Hopefully we will all have some clarity soon with July bulletin or some CO comments.
Kanmani, re:Eb2I catching up with Eb2C, you got my hopes up too :-)
It will be a miracle if the tortoise does catchup with the hare in the real world.
My pd is dec31, 2007. I'm trying to understand the procedure for applications pickup for theoretical movements in PD.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Lets say in August bulletin (effective September 1st), dates move to Jan 1, 2008. So from September 1st onwards applications below jan 1, 2008 will be reviewed.
So I will have only one month for visa date assignment? because we are expecting September bulletin (effective october 1st), dates will be retrogressed.
i have 485 RFE that needs to be cleared in that one month. is my understanding correct?
Dec 2007 - the current retrogression is purely technical. Fundamentally if the dates move to Q1 2008 - then that's where they will stay after Sep 2013.
So you don't have to worrry about retrogression. Retro should happen if we see dates in later part of 2008.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
I think I'm confused.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Lets say in August bulletin, dates move to jan 1, 2008 and in september bulletin, dates move to 2006 or "U".
Is my understanding correct that I have only one month of window (Sept 1 - Sep 30) to be greened.
Thanks
Yes .... but there is no way they will move forward in august and then backward in sep. If at all they will move back in October.
And in this particular situation - if the dates move upto Q1 2008 - I don't think they will retro at all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
Ok great. Thank you for quick reply and clarification.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Perhaps I am being dense, or I don't fully understand what you are saying. Perhaps you can expand on your argument.
As I see it, retrogression to date in FY2013 is a function of CO only using the initial allocation available to EB2-I. That has allowed between 250-285 visas to be allocated to EB2-I each month to date.
Since there have been sufficient cases with a PD before September 2004 to use the numbers available, the Cut Off Date has remained at 01SEP04.
Cut Off Dates will accelerate rapidly when spillover is released, hopefully into 2008.
Won't the same initial conditions be true when FY2014 starts in October 2013?
CO will revert to only using the initial allocation of 2,803 visas, or 252 per month.
Even leaving new porting demand aside, there will be more applicants ready for approval, whose cases were not picked up when they became Current at the end of FY2013 or have replied to a RFE issued towards the end of FY2013, than visas available.
To only use 252 per month, the Cut Off Date will have to retrogress substantially from whatever it reaches at the end of FY2013. How far will depend on porting demand from earlier PD years.
The only way I see the Cut Off Date can be sustained in 2008 is if potential spillover numbers for FY2014 are applied from October 2013 itself. I don't think anyone believes that will happen.
I am confused.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I think part of the confusion lies in that dec2007 is using the date when the VB is published, not when it becomes effective. So, when dec2007 talks about August, they actually mean the September VB and September refers to the October VB.
dec2007, please correct me if I am wrong.
Spec - you need to consider the source of the numbers from 2004. They are no longer original EB2. They are all portings now. And of course that is not a perennial source.
But granted - your logic is that then instead of 2004 - it should move to 2005.
If so - I would agree .. but then that's what I call not based on fundamentals and holding dates back purely on technicality of 2800 quota. The reality is EB2I consistently receives over 10K visas (even in a bad year) and so holding dates so back in history only serves to bring people's morale down. I think VO is insensitive stupid and callous in doing so. Callous because then they are not doing quarterly spillovers as required by law. With those quarterly spillovers - EB2I dates would not linger so back.
Anyway .. but that could be a philosophical difference between us. I guess I get source of your confusion - that you are assuming EB3 porting (prior to X date) to be greater than EB2 monthly quota which then holds the dates back. As I said - I do not think that source is granted nor I assume that CO will not yield anything at all at end of each quarter which then requires for him not to retro in October - to the degree that you think he will.
No, they didn't mention CO, they were in the middle of those 20K additional case discussion.Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Come-on guys! We have seen much more blood and battle than this. Initially we thought 18K FB is ours, then 13K FB + 13 K regular, then 13K alone, now just PD could barely cross 2007 !!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by willywonka
We are capable of more than this. That was just a copy & paste to let you guys know what they discuss about COD movement.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks.
I understand where you are coming from now.
I mentioned it would likely retrogress because clearly that is important to Dec2007 and could adversely affect when they receive an approval by nearly a year.
Philosophically, I understand where you are coming from. I don't think we will ever see a FY2012 pattern again. Perhaps some gentle, safe quarterly spillover.
This FY, even that was not possible, because EB2-WW needed any spare visas purely to allow them to catch up the backlog created last year.
Spec,
It's like quantum physics ... all possibilities exist. The question is which one of them will materialize. I will bet on dates not retrogressing.
p.s. - I always enjoy your posts Spec. I think you know that .... but reiteration can't hurt!Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I ditto that Spec, this year has been exceptionally bad for EB2I so far. Seems like CO was predetermined to hold back EB2I dates to payback for the blunder that he made in 2012.
I hope things start to turn around from the July VB onwards and the dates don't retro that much starting Oct.
My PD of Aug 2007 continues to wait to see the daylight...hope that will happen soon!
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
This is what I'm assuming. Below PD date movements are just randomly picked to just state my question.
Bulletin that will be released in July 1st week (effective August 1st) : August 1, 2007
Bulletin that will be released in August 1st week ( effective Sep 1st) : Jan 1, 2008
Bulletin that will be released in September 1st week ( effective Oct 1st) : June 2006 or "U"
Now in above scenario, since my PD is Dec 31, 2007. I will have only one month (Sep 1st - Sep 30th) to be greened. Correct? Otherwise I have to wait almost until next SO season aka July 2014.
Is there a chance that starting from Oct 1st, the dates maynot retrogress or "U" for few more months.
Thanks,
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Never a truer word spoken!
Ditto about your posts.
We may hold some different views, but I have always said that is a good thing and I mean it. We look at things from different perspectives and it allows different ways to reach a prediction.
I've probably been at this too long. I realize my style can sound rather argumentative. No, does sound argumentative! I can't change that - I am what I am and this year has been the worst to date for information from official and semi-official sources. It is frustrating.
I do think it is a shame if that results in some people not posting their own predictions. For that, I do apologize.
Onwards and Upwards.
Dec2007,
if you read earlier posts on Qeseh/Spec, they are saying chances of PD date retrogressing is very slim after Oct1st(i.e. Sept VB). Spec, also mentioned the reason onto why we had almost no moment in EB2I PD movement from the begining of this year. What I understand from Qeseh earlier post that date will not retrogress less than Jan-2008. If that is the case you will have some time to resolve your RFE and get greened, you must be happy that you are in better state than me, I have NOV2007 PD and waiting to file I485 this time.:)
Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
dec2007,Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
For future reference, most people refer to the VB by the month it takes effect, so it is simpler just to say August VB, September VB, October VB etc. It also saves some typing. :)
Using the dates you have chosen, yes you are only likely to have one month to be approved before dates retrogress before your PD in the October VB. I know Q feels otherwise. It would be a lottery for you - I can't put it any other way.
In many ways, I hope he sets the July VB at 01JAN07.
CO has always been saying that he has no idea of porting numbers. IF he moved the date to 01JAN07 in the July VB, he would get a much better idea of the porting numbers. That would be helpful for future reference and might allow for (more accurate) quarterly movement in future years.
I only said dates wont retro prior to Q1 2008 come Oct 2013. If GC's case is preadjudicated he should expect a GC by 20th Sep 2013. If he files after date become current - then it should take about 4 months.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q, Spec others,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
By Q1 of 2008 are you guys saying jan, feb or march? I have my pd in feb.
I sincerely hope the dates cross well in 2008. Five+ years and waiting, kind of tired keeping track.
Druv
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
To be clear, the reason I said it will be a lottery is that more cases will be Current in September than there are visas available. Often numbers run out after about 2 weeks of September.
a) It is then luck of the draw whether a case is picked up before visa numbers run out.
b) Even if it is picked up and was previously pre-adjudicated, a RFE can still be issued, which would kill any chance of approval in FY2013.
I think (a) is the greater danger.
To be sure, as lotteries go, the odds are quite good for a clean case, but not a certainty. Quantum Uncertainty again!
Spec - I think what you mean is that --- CO will try to overshoot in order not to waste visas and as a result some people may not get GC.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Now that is certainly possible. However regardless of that becoming reality or not - I guarantee you that it won't be lottery. Why? Because of the large preadjudicated backlog which according to the law must be dealt with in order of priority date. So it won't be lottery.
RFE and all is reality only for a very small number of cases when things are at this stage. In fact if there was to be an RFE on those cases then it should've already been issued.
Third - and going back to the topic of overshooting. I would believe that CO has such a great visibility and understanding now of how many visas he is left with and how much ready backlog he has .... that he can move dates precisely to a point where he doesn't have to waste visa nor leave a large number of people high and dry.
Would you agree Spec?
p.s. - As per earlier question that druvraj raised ... to be clear - none of us know for sure. I would say somewhere in Q1 the dates should settle.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I was not aware of the rule that preadjudicated applications needs to be processed as per PD. thanks for info.
Anyways, when I spoke to visa officer on my Infopass appointment, he said my app is preadjudicated.
Nov2007, I can understand your situation. Hang in there my friend...hope for the best.Quote:
Originally Posted by NOV2007
Next Friday will answer lot of questions.
How to take infopass appointment to know if my application is pre-adjudicated, I have Nov 2007 EB2I PD and my response to RFE received in oct 2007, when I raised SR i got the reply that the application cannot be processed further b'cos of lack of visas (PD not current) .Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
I think retrogression most likely might happen next fiscal yr as there is no way CO would know that the amount of porting will not be more than the EB2I regular quota.
next year there might be very little FB spillover (like previous yrs), they just won't know about EB2WW and EB1 usage until atleast 6 months into the fiscal yr.
http://infopass.uscis.gov/Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
You can ask him if it is preadjudicated.
Yes dec2007 - that is the law that any extra visas should be allocated in order of PD for all eligible 485s.
But even otherwise for quota visas - same is true for all applications that fall under quota and are eligible for a visa.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
Gurus
I have a stupid question. The spike we saw in EB2Row during the last few months of last FY...does that have anything to do with EB2 ROWers panicking about the chances of HR3012 passing ?
If so, is there a chance for a similar pattern this FY now that CIR is about to go onto the senate floor in two weeks?
I already opened SR once and got reply.Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
here is the option that I might have to choose when I opned the site
"Case Services follow-up appointment - If it has been over 45 days since you contacted NCSC and have not received a response to your inquiry. You must bring the Service Request ID Number related to your inquiry to the appointment. "
But as I already received the response from them in email, is there any risk of choosing this option or else did u choose any other option?
No, the spike is due to retrogression of EB2WW, whether they panick or not wouldnt changed the fact that everyone would have applied at the earliet oppurtunity.Quote:
Originally Posted by willywonka
Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
There was no spike per se. The retrogression was due to over allocation to EB2IC resulting in insufficient numbers for EB2ROW. There might have been some added urgency but not high enough to point to that as a factor.Quote:
Originally Posted by willywonka