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I agree. Moreover the uncertainty goes beyond last bulletin of the year into first quarter of next year since it is quite possible that CO makes a very large move in last month and so not all folks with then current PDs may be able to get through in the remaining quota.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
the first movement is always conservative. Look at past july movements. So I wont bet anything beyond DEC 2004 in July. The biggest movement will be augustQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I was saying it could be anything. Common sense tells that generally Jul bulletin should start showing movement. But past is random. So I wouldn't bet anyway. The whole preadjudicated cases have allowed CO to withhold any movement right upto last moment in September. So he could very well wait till september and then make a movement in September.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Thanks for clarification Spec/Qeseh.
Qeseh,
Based on your comment, I conclude that people with EB2PD(Straight)/EB3-EB2 Porting people filing for AOS this year cann't get GC for sure. All they can get is EAD by waiting 6 more months after their PD is current. People who filed for AOS last year i.e. in 2012 might be the lucky ones to sail through this year. I guess by the end of this FY there may not be much difference between EB3I and EB2I, I guess. This is a very complicated situation for EB2I too like EB3I. All we can do is hope for the best in the coming days.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Do you mean to say you haven't filed a 485 yet?Quote:
Originally Posted by NOV2007
Hello Gurus,
Can someone explain to me why Mexico is getting over 140k GC per year? I thought there was a limit of 7% per country. The rate for Mexico is too high, India's numbers are not even half of that.
http://www.dhs.gov/publication/us-le...residents-2012
NOV2007,Quote:
Originally Posted by NOV2007
I think it is fair to say that anyone with an approved EB2 I-140 who needs to file a new I-1485 when dates become Current for their PD is unlikely to receive an I-485 approval this FY. I believe most people hold that view.
I didn't quite understand your EAD comment. Those filing an I-485 will receive an EAD as quickly as it is processed - anywhere between 1-4 months. They don't have to wait 6 months after the PD is Current.
People who already have a pending and pre-adjudicated I-485 (whether filed in 2012 or 2007) have an equal chance of approval if their PD becomes Current, their case is picked up by an IO and they do not receive a RFE. The later they become Current, the somewhat less chance they have of their case being picked by an IO, particularly if they only become Current in September.
By September, there will be a big difference between EB2-I and EB3-I Cut Off Dates. The best EB3-I can hope for is a date in 2003, whereas EB2-I dates may end in 2008.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
IMO you are being too optimistic about EB2 I dates. Heres what I am thinking about the numbers
EB1 - 38000- 39000 - 6000 - 7000 SO ( I desperately hope its lower)
EB 2 WW - 43000 - -5000 ( This is what it looks like - with 34400 + 8600 from last year)
EB4 - 8000 - 2300 (Again I hope its lower)
EB5 - 1318
Total SO around 5500 to 6000 . With that dates moving to 2008 could be difficult.
joemontana,Quote:
Originally Posted by joemontana
That number includes all LPR - IR (Cap exempt), FB and EB and several others. In F2A, all Mexico approvals are exempt from the numerical limitation.
Across FB & EB in FY2012, where the 7% limit applies, Mexico received 49.6k visas compared to the 44.9k that India received according to the DOS Visa Statistics. In FY2012, 7% was 26k. China, India and Mexico all exceeded the 7% limit on that basis.
China ------ 10.50%
India ------ 12.09%
Mexico ----- 13.36%
Philippines - 7.07%
However, adjusted for visas that actually count against the 7% limit, it is a different story.
China ------ 10.06%
India ------ 11.92%
Mexico ------ 4.85% (Mexico use by far the most visas under F2A)
Philippines - 6.56%
China and India were able to exceed 7% due to spillover visas.
To be pedandic, I did not say that dates would move to 2008. What I actually said may move to 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
SOme points to note.
EB2-WW allocation is about 39k so your calculation would result in (4)k SO, not (5)k.
If EB4 used 8k, then SO would be 3.2k, not 2.3k since the EB4 allocation is 11.2k.
That would give EB2-I about 10.1k total visas (I've deducted some for EB2-C).
I would agree that, even with a 25% contingency for unapproved cases, that would probably not be enough to move the Cut Off Dates to 2008.
I do think you are using the aggressive end of possible numbers which are resulting in low numbers for EB2-I, but they are not outside the realm of the possible. Historically, EB2-ROW (and probably M & P) only use 40% of normal approvals in September, so 43k might be slightly too high a number. If EB1 does come in that high, 2008 could be quite difficult to achieve.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Per my understanding:
Along with SO of 5.5-6k, EB2I can expect anywhere between 7.5-11.5k (11.5k being absolute best case scenario where EB2-ROw does not take any FB visas) from the 18k FB visa allocation.. That makes total SO of about 13-17k..Subtract about 6k porting and net SO is 7-11k.. Add to that 1.3k from remaining regular quota.. So EB2-I can expect about 8-12k visas.. Anything more than 8k would take the dates into 2008..
If porting is 7.5k(per Matt's calculations), we have 7-11k Visas and the dates would at least hit Mid-Dec 2007..
Thoughts?
Hello Good Morning Everyone.
Gurus - Spec, Q, Kanmani, Teddy, Kochu, Veni, Viz, etc...I missed reading your posts. I just want you to know that I admire you guys for what you do. I have been in hibernation but woke up a couple of days ago to catch up on EB2I things. I just wanted to put my thoughts out here and on trackitt to get further insight. I just feel like I am missing something, don't know what. Is the situation really that grim that if it wasn't for the FB spillover, we are looking at possible retrogression in almost all EB categories?
The Good: The spillover from FB (18k), Low demand for EB2C for 2008
The Bad: The rise in demand across all EB categories (EB5, EB2ROW, EB4, EB1 in order of %rise I believe) and Porting (I believe the total porting for FY2013 is between 5k-6k)
The Ugly: CIR. Yes, I decided to call it ugly because of several reasons. a)Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity...especially when it comes to most of the present congress and the morons who put them there. This bill is NOT going to pass. I will be happy if it does but it wont. b)what it can be potentially but what it will be finally, and the length of time it takes to get there if it does. c)For political reasons, they had to hold us legal immigrants hostage so that they can get some traction on legalizing illegal immigrants !!! Really ? Does their depravity know no bounds ? Argh!!!
Anyway, here is a closer look at spillover to EB2I:
(FB spillover allocation is based on this article. http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb-...dditional.html )
FB:~5100
EB5 - no spillover and more over its going to suck away ~1300 from FB spillover. Net: 0
EB2ROW - no spillover and it is probably going to suck away ~4k from FB spillover. Net: -4000
EB4 - may yield ~2k spillover plus give back all ~1300 from FB spillover. Net: 3300
EB1 - no spillover but will probably give back all ~5100 from FB spillover. Net: 5100
EB3 - as usual a black hole. Net: 0
Chinese Share of spillover - Net: 0
Total spillover for EB2I: 5100 + 0 -4000 + 3300 + 5100 + 0 - 0 = 9500
Assuming the monthly spillover has taken care of all the regular quota (2800) and any pre Sep 2004 porting cases in the next three months, when I apply a spillover of 9500 to the current demand, it should easily clear January 2008. So my estimate is that the date will land some where in Feb 2008 by the end of this FY. I wish that it will clear at least all of 2008 so that me and my buddies can get our green cards but that doesn't seem possible. Even my best case scenario doesn't go past Sep 2008.
I think the date movement in July and August bulletins will be small (numbers wise, not timeframe wise...say up to Sep 2007) and then a big leap to Feb 2008 in Sep bulletin. The dates are going to retrogress again to say Jan 2005 once the fresh porting demand materializes in Q1 of FY 2014. I think porting impact is going to be very bad next FY, but that's a story for next FY.
I would be honored if you rip my post apart.
Thanks Guys !!!
ChampU,Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampU
sbhagwat2000's figures already include the numbers from FB.
when calculating SO, please note that FB is already allocated across all EB.Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampU
So its probably less confusing if everyone uses same method of SO ( i.e from other EB) (including the extra quota which is added to each one).
EB1 and 4 are the only categories we hope to receive spillover for sure and perhaps a very small spill over from EB 5. EB-WW might give very small or NO spillover.
While it is impossible to know how much spillover will be available by the end of the last quarter, also is unknown when CO will make the movements, and if FIFO will be followed.
Apart from applicants before 2007, and early 2007, for most of us it is still a chance.
I do think that, your estimate is almost sure shot , except I could differ slightly on EB5 numbers. Anyways, we have almost reached the last quarter game, and we do not have many more predictive indicators, except from the June end AILA meeting.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
These are my thoughts on few points discussed above:
a) I do think that dates will end in early part of 2008.
b) Regarding a new I-485 filed from July getting approved this fiscal, very slim chance.
c) Date movement- I do think that advantages of moving dates byJuly/ August, outweighs the advantage of making the big move in September. To Q's point, they could do all in one month as most cases are preadjudicated. In that case it will be a bigger jump.
d) Retrogression next fiscal: Aprox 2+ years from where EB3I reaches by end of this fiscal.Need a little more clarity, but a general estimate.
e) Porting- I understand that adjudicating a porting case is very similar and the only extra activity is re-classification of I-485.But, I think that existing pre-adjudicated cases will have a slight lead over porting cases. The time lag may not be huge, it could be a week or two. it is possible that the week or two differece may impact some percentage of porting applications.
My apologies, friends..Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
willywonka - you have very good grasp of the dynamic. Thanks for a simple and lucid post. I guess I will add EBROW porting into ugly and probably upgrade EB1 to possible "Good". EB5 I will definitely put into good column since I would fully expect them to yield at least 3K. Overall I do think that based on EBROW porting dynamic - your Feb 2008 could be come worst case scenario. But I will reiterate that 2007 is a foregone conclusion. Anybody from 2007 should stop worrying. 2008 Mar-Sep is where the uncertainty lies. Anybody beyond Sep 2008 - has almost no chance. Just my quick 2 cents. Thanks again.Quote:
Originally Posted by willywonka
willywonka,Quote:
Originally Posted by willywonka
Thanks for your post. I have no intention of ripping it apart. Without FB numbers, this year would have been very grim indeed.
I would comment on this line:
My reading of the various laws is that EB2-C would be entitled to 7% of any numbers that fall down from EB1, so they would use 588 visas based on your figures, as well as 360 of the 5,148 extra initially available to EB2. That would give them 2,803 + 360 + 588 = 3,751 total visas.Quote:
Chinese Share of spillover - Net: 0
EB1 using 40k visas is quite an aggressive prediction.
Given some of the problems EB5 is experiencing, they may not use the full 11.2k available to them. Even so, I don't expect them to provide huge numbers either.
Let's use your figures anyway.
Total EB2-I number is 9,500 + 2,803 = 12,303 visas.
I think you are assuming that the current Demand Data includes all porting applications. I don't believe that is the case and we are going to see the effect of a lot more (they won't appear in the DD until dates retrogress again after becoming Current).
If every case were approved, I don't think that is enough to move into 2008, but given a healthy contingency for cases that are not approved, that number could move the Cut Off Dates to January/February 2008 depending on the size of porting.
But my guess is as good as yours!
Matt,Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
I can't disagree with anything you have said.
My biggest doubt remains on how many visas EB1 will use. I currently have about a 4k range on that, which can make a big difference.
In fact, there are ranges on everything. Some are quite small, but cumulatively, they all add up to a much higher overall range and thus uncertainty.
DD prior to Jan 2008 is 7925Quote:
Originally Posted by willywonka
Porting which might happen after dates move apprx. 5K
Total Demand approx 12K (assuming 1k of porters not getting GC)
If SO is apprx. 10K, I do not see a scenario where the dates will clear even the latter part of 2007.
Please correct me if I am missing something.
( I personally believe that the SO might be bit higher probably 12K-14K based on the hope that EB1 and EB2-WW might not consume as much and CO can always internally stop issuing GC to EB1/EB2 WW in last 2 weeks of sept.)
Spec,
I don't think the 43k number is aggressive. Look at it in two ways - 34k + 8600 from last yr gives you 43k. But also from trackitt trends- 26k from first 6 mos + normal allocation for the next 2 quarters will give you 43 k. Now I hope it's less and trackitt trends are overestimating similar to FY 2009. Eb1 may be aggressive in my calcs. I think a realistic number could be 35 to 36 k. Lets see how it plays out. Some official word would have been good
sbhagwat2000,Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Good for your for sticking to your guns!
I also have a figure for EB2-WW of over 40k, so we are only talking about 1-2k in our viewpoint. As I said previously, September approvals for EB2-WW in a normal year drop to 40% of other months - probably because September is essentially only a 2 week month (visas run out at that point).
Historically, I tend to slightly overestimate EB2-WW, so I don't feel comfortable using a figure as high as 43k. As you point out, there is always some uncertainty as to the Trackitt ratio to use.
We are estimating EB1 in an almost complete vacuum of information. I am also hoping it will be mid 30's rather than nearer 40k. Frankly, I have no clear idea what the actual figure might be.
I would also like to hear some official word on EB1 progress. I'm not confident that wish will be fulfilled.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
8600 from last year - is this official number? If yes, source please....
not an official number. Its an assumption since 8600 is normal quarterly allocation.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Spec - for a second I thought you are CO! :rolleyes: Tell me you aren't.
About sbhagwat's calculations ... i think what he is missing is the principle of steady flow in a system. EB1 is a category where there is continuous flow and no backlog. So what you see as approx 10K backlog is the normal cases waiting to be adjudicated at any point of time. So that shouldn't be counted towards full 2013 demand. Yes they will go up and down by 2-3K one year to next. But they can never go to zero.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thought another way - you can look at them as 10/40 = 3 months worth backlog which on an average represents 3-4 months of waiting time for an EB1.
Ok got it.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
My calculations differ way too much from your and ofcourse Spectators calculations - so I will leave it at that.
I wish he is given a chance to be an acting chief a single day, we can expect paragraphs and paragraphs of brief from him.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Chinese are expecting India to join them at the end of this FY, their target PD is same as Q's September 2008. They think there is no retrogression for EB2C hereafter.
Sun, same here :)Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Kanmani - ;). I know we have a common view on this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
May we hear your latest thinking?
I won't comment, if you prefer.
I do think it is important to hear all views and I respect both Kanmani and your views.
Send me a PM if you prefer and really don't want to air your thoughts on the forum.
Dont get my hopes up !!! :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Do you know if that's a prediction or they heard from CO (I remember some of them communicating with CO in the past)Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Please allow me to clarify my position on this. I no longer consider Sep 2008 as average case scenario. To me that is best case scenario now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Q, I think early 2013 is best case scenario,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Its seems very difficult to imagine it will cross march 2008
Assuming that CO decides to make a big jump in September, what would the dates be for EB2-I? I know the chances of it happening is very minimal but want to know how big a jump that will be if it were to happen.
Thanks Q, Spec and Indiani for your comments on my numbers. When I reevaluate, I am still landing somewhere in Q1 of CY 2008. Hopefully we will all have some clarity soon with July bulletin or some CO comments.
Kanmani, re:Eb2I catching up with Eb2C, you got my hopes up too :-)
It will be a miracle if the tortoise does catchup with the hare in the real world.
My pd is dec31, 2007. I'm trying to understand the procedure for applications pickup for theoretical movements in PD.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Lets say in August bulletin (effective September 1st), dates move to Jan 1, 2008. So from September 1st onwards applications below jan 1, 2008 will be reviewed.
So I will have only one month for visa date assignment? because we are expecting September bulletin (effective october 1st), dates will be retrogressed.
i have 485 RFE that needs to be cleared in that one month. is my understanding correct?
Dec 2007 - the current retrogression is purely technical. Fundamentally if the dates move to Q1 2008 - then that's where they will stay after Sep 2013.
So you don't have to worrry about retrogression. Retro should happen if we see dates in later part of 2008.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
I think I'm confused.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Lets say in August bulletin, dates move to jan 1, 2008 and in september bulletin, dates move to 2006 or "U".
Is my understanding correct that I have only one month of window (Sept 1 - Sep 30) to be greened.
Thanks
Yes .... but there is no way they will move forward in august and then backward in sep. If at all they will move back in October.
And in this particular situation - if the dates move upto Q1 2008 - I don't think they will retro at all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
Ok great. Thank you for quick reply and clarification.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk