imdeng, i meant... are there any spill over (left over visas) from Family Based quota from last year, which is FY 2011?
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
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imdeng, i meant... are there any spill over (left over visas) from Family Based quota from last year, which is FY 2011?
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
I-485 Inventory got posted in murthy website...
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_485o11.html
I think its curtains for today. No demand data put up, I highly doubt he will directly publish the VB, especially since he is doing it early, then he would like to show some thought went behind it.
Also the 4th sounds very early, almost a hack job, I did random clicks on previous years bulletins, and really none were this early.
Guys there is a comment on the US non immigrants blogspot and someone posted a comment about VB release date . Quote " I just got off the phone. Demand data will be released on Monday and bulletin on Wednesday. Enjoy your weekend. " . Not sure how viable this person is , but wanted to share this to y all anyway.
This weekend surely will give me sleepless nights of anticipation with out bounds for what may come next . Good luck to all of us who are expecting to be current .
Nishant thanks; I did not know that QSP can be applied anytime in that case it is actually happening. This will bring early relief to all. So definitely it’s QSP or its variant or avatar but it’s something good happening for sure. The real test will be when we start to see PWMB approvals for those who filed last month.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Why does Murthy posts these kinds reliable information very late. At this minute every one is waiting for Demand data and VB, No one is waiting for this information at all. But Murthy posts this late news to drag attention.Quote:
Originally Posted by chini9
Nishant,
Murthy just posted I-485 inventory data for October 2011. Any guesses what will be the cut off date based on that.
friend, murthy is late, people on this forum already pounced it on long time back.Quote:
Originally Posted by vchirakala
I will tell you what murthy article doesnt say. The inventory shows big year over year increase in backlog for EB1 and EB2ROW, pointing to decrease in SOFAD by at least 8k for this year. But that assumes:
1. 140 approval rate is what we think it is, if it is lower, the backlog reduction will reduce the 485 but in terms of denials, not approvals
2. this year's incoming demand for EB1, EB2ROW will remain the same. It may get lower, which in case may balance the backlog reduction
3. USCIS will indeed to backlog reduction effort. they may or may not. if CO does QSP, then only in the quarter or next few they do this effort, we would be impacted, not throughout year. So I hope he does QSP.
As far as cut off dates, I have always mentioned, CO should look at past trend and grab minimum that plus buffer, and disregard the backlog kind of factors for now. He like us does not know future, and has to be safe side.
"More and More EB2 Approvals from India and ChinaQuote:
Originally Posted by chini9
It should be noted that, in October and November 2011, the cutoff dates for EB2 India and China have continued to advance to November 1, 2007. This has resulted in many EB2 approvals from India and China with 2007 priority dates in October 2011, and is expected to continue in November 2011. The EB2 India and China inventory for cases with priority dates prior to August 2007 is therefore expected to continue to decline. "
Does not mention where the visas are coming from.
Kanmani this means that CO is allocating numbers to the batch for the Nov VB it’s a very positive sign that numbers are being allocated freely. We know that most of the preadjudicated cases before Jul 15th are approved already. I believe that if the approvals keep coming like this it is some kind of spillover or excess allocation as they have crossed 6K (I+ C Allocation). Note China’s Jul 2007 inventory is higher than India and EB2 I +C inventory excluding PWMB’s for Jul 2007 is more than 3K.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I wonder with whom did he speak on phone..Quote:
Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07
Teddy
So still my theory of left over visas from 2011 is ruled out right?
guess he is just creating a buzz for some traffic to his website. I have seen bulletins released at even 2:10 PM PST
Quote:
Originally Posted by wantgcnow
yes..makes senseQuote:
Originally Posted by cbpds1
I believe 6k has been used up for sure, its upto CO to account for them as either as 6K totally as annual allocation or 30% of 6K + Spillover as per some rules in the first 3 quarters only 30% can be used. Either way it’s very good news for all of us. We now need to see PWMB approvals to strengthen this theory.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Hope he did not speak with CO. For now probability of VB today has gone down, that's what I can say.Quote:
Originally Posted by cbpds1
So this should reduce average wait time for EB2IC by around 6 months?Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
If its thats easy to reach CO and everyone would have called and asked him about VBQuote:
Originally Posted by pdmay2008
Now GC processing is transparent than before, why CO can't tell up front when the VB will be out instead just placing "Coming Soon"
I totally agree with you...instead of "coming soon" banner they can as well put a dateQuote:
Originally Posted by venkimakthal
Is it possible that the visas for these approvals that we are seeing have been already allocated previous quarter? It's just that we are seeing the actual approvals now( a month later).
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Yes definitely otherwise all these cases would have had to wait till the last quarter, but let’s wait for more to happen. Iam basing it on the fact that 6K has definitely been used up. We need to be cognizant about the consumption as well now not really for intake purpose yet but from the annual SOFAD perspective.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
yeah man, who knows, he might be already gone home from work. or taken a sick day :)Quote:
Originally Posted by venkimakthal
Although not to further increase hopes, I think I am already guilty of that a bit, I have seen bulletins get released around 2 PM PST.
But the dates for which they are being alloacated were not current previous quarter. that's the big gotcha, unless they are bending laws.
Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
Refer to the following post. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2246#post12246 -- POST # 1249.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
- On Trackitt the number of EB2 ROW and EB1 numbers in both Aug and Spe are closer to double than usual. This is indicative of actual high number of approvals in these months. Also note that May, June approvals of I140 were very high. I have noticed one thing that whenever CO announces that huge numbers are available like in May even USCIS goes into high gear on 140 and thereby diminishes the actual movement that CO would have done as he is bound to go by USCIS input at that time.
- CO commented in the bulletins about the heavy EB2 ROW and EB1 demands.
- In 2007 the reverse had happened the cap numbers were allocated to the cases when the date became current actual approvals came months later, here however the cap numbers cannot be legally allocated to the case as Apr 15 - Jul 15th were not current in the last 2 months of FY 2011.
- Even now there is a very high number of people in the inventory for both EB2 ROW and EB1 and with I485 processing fast these cases can be virtually made ready for approval in a month’s time.
- For the last 2 years USCIS has been announcing in early September that numbers are over this means that they did a neat job.
- In the inventory published on Oct 01 the demand for EB2 I/C for Apr - Jul is present in full and not reduced strength.
- Effectively 6K numbers have been consumes which is virtually equal to I/C annual cap. The demand data for Oct 2011 showed 2.5K as opposed to 8.5K in Sep 2011 the numbers are normally reduced in the demand data for the month in which the numbers are actually allocated.
All these points strongly indicate that the cutover from 2011 to 2012 was a clean one and all the approvals that came in Oct 2012 are from 2012 cap. I hope all these factors are convincing enough that these are indeed 2012 numbers.
Most likely IMHO these are all from the 2012 cap.
yeah, I think the number 4 messed us up. it just sounds so early :)Quote:
Originally Posted by cbpds1
he was ok with the 5th, but not the 4th.
Anyways, now I think everyone understands why I was saying we shall cleanup thread after the Dec VB pans out :D
I agree that it would be slight bending of the law; But within the framework though. Like he had visas in hand by September 30th and Pre-Adj applications ready.
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Originally Posted by nishant2200
Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
Actually issue of VISA counts, not allocation.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Veni, I understand that your advice is that all the current approvals are from the 2012 cap. What are your thoughts is this QSP or just usage of the annual cap or a mix of both.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
We are not there yet. It will take couple of years to reach that point.Quote:
Originally Posted by venkimakthal
What you described makes mathematical sense :) Little too risky from CO's point of view, for allocating all 6k in the first quarter and opening a huge door for his opponents to attack him for the rest of 9 months.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Today alone I saw more than 20 approvals on MITBBS. These guys have PD after 7/15. Looks like they are approving all the cases between 7/15-10/15.
what is happening? what ever is happening let it happen it is good for now...
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
on a funnier note.Quote:
Originally Posted by venkimakthal
"if that is so Doctors have lesser business"! ;) and might close down their clinics.
Prediction to some extend can be accurate but it all depends on filings from Nov1st to Nov 10th, that effects the date as all knows.
I wish Let all of us in this lengthy journey get the GC ASAP!
Thanks, it maybe 30% of 6K which is legally allowed and QSP which was always legal and never done. using numbers from the previous year may be completely against he law. He may have a tough time in any audit explaining that.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
at least 20 primary applicants got green and that translates around 40 visa numbers. all of them are between 7/15-7/31.
I think they are approving now. A huge wave of GC is coming.......
Quote:
Originally Posted by sha_kus
Woow !, thats great news, are here any PWMB case approvals as well for people who just filed last month.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
maybe some IT guy in USCIS removed the I/C filter in the internal application by mistake, so they removed the restriction b4 HR 3012 is passed :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
I don't think CO can guesstimate the demand based on Nov 1st to Nov 10th. So many people are in hurry to apply as the doors are opened after a long time, many would make sure their application reaches there by Nov 1, at the same time several people are not ready with their docs(birth certificates etc...).Quote:
Originally Posted by immitime
The lesser the number between Nov 1st and VB release date the more the chance of Advancing the date >Mar 1st 2008.
The upcoming IC Demand Data is expected to show Zero documentarily qualified .
What do you guys think?