EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by anuran

I do feel that this year they will move the cutoff by a total of a year and a half at the last just as they did the last year or up to 2 years.

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Anuran that is my intuition too. But there is no overwhelming data to support it.

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
But there could be a chance in September if they want to bank some inventory(in-addition to PWMB) for precessing into next year.

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Here is an interesting fact you may want to consider. Last time under GWB when the economy picking up in 2003-4 everything was made current (including EB3! Can you believe it?). The reason IMHO being that as economy starts revving up they DO WANT the high skilled workforce. So now that there are some signs of recovery, I would imagine that if not this season they could repeat that same act (may not be as drastic as making everything current). But the date has to go forward if economy makes progress.

Since this is not data and is a very subjective topic, I wouldn't bet on it. But looked at this way you can see how DOS tries to play GOD.

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Originally Posted by veni001

Spec,
EB2C may have inched forward than 15OCT2006 since more spillover numbers will be applied in the coming months.

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Veni,

My understanding is that once both Countries start using the spillover, that they have to share the same Cut Off Date, since visas must be allocated on a strictly earliest PD basis.

This was how CO explained the reason they didn't in May, since China was still using their own initial allocation.

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Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit. For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.

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The way I read that is that China will now also begin to use visas under Section 202(a)(5), so the Cut Off Dates will be the same.

I could be wrong.

Spec

I am quite confident that you are right.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,
My understanding is that once both Countries start using the spillover, that they have to share the same Cut Off Date.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

Veni... In this scenario where we have 20 k more for last three months... And as per your previous post 20k is the remaining known count for I/c.... Why are we still sticking to may07?? Pwmb is not at all a concern in my opinion for last three months as they can't get them cleared.... The game is to use all the numbers.... As you said the conservative calc is 32k but if CIS sees more numbers then we have a scenario where they will have more free numbers than demand... If they move the dates > July then atleast DOS can take advantage for CP....

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soggadu,
I am hoping DOS will hint something in the actual VB for June2011.
Best case scenario would be move dates by 3-months each(controlled manner) in the next three bulletins. That will take us in to JULY 2007, if they want to test waters then it will be more than that, let's see!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

My understanding is that once both Countries start using the spillover, that they have to share the same Cut Off Date, since visas must be allocated on a strictly earliest PD basis.

This was how CO explained the reason they didn't in May, since China was still using their own initial allocation.



The way I read that is that China will now also begin to use visas under Section 202(a)(5), so the Cut Off Dates will be the same.

I could be wrong.

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Spec,
You are correct, I am assuming that EB2C may not have used all of its allocation(some cases may have processing delays) if they did, then YES both must have the same Cut Off date.

From the Mumbai consulate website (http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html). EB2-I moved forward by 6K visa numbers to 15th Oct 2006 thats great news.

Category India Most Other Countries
F1 1 May 2004 1 May 2004
FX 22 July 2007 22 July 2007
F2A 22 August 2007 22 August 2007
F2B 15 April 2003 15 April 2003
F3 1 June 2001 1 June 2001
F4 8 March 2000 8 March 2000
E1 Current Current
E2 15 October 2006 Current
E3 22 April 2002 15 September 2005
EW 22 April 2002 8 November 2003
E4 Current Current
E4-Religious Current Current

Teddy wake up!! Somebody beat you by 8 hours!!!

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

From the Mumbai consulate website (http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html). EB2-I moved forward by 6K visa numbers to 15th Oct 2006 thats great news.

Category India Most Other Countries
F1 1 May 2004 1 May 2004
FX 22 July 2007 22 July 2007
F2A 22 August 2007 22 August 2007
F2B 15 April 2003 15 April 2003
F3 1 June 2001 1 June 2001
F4 8 March 2000 8 March 2000
E1 Current Current
E2 15 October 2006 Current
E3 22 April 2002 15 September 2005
EW 22 April 2002 8 November 2003
E4 Current Current
E4-Religious Current Current

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy wake up!! Somebody beat you by 8 hours!!!

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Yes I see that one now :), btw I hope Iam woken up every month for the next 3 months with 3.5 months of movement each time I will be current. All in all this is great news thanks for posting the news about significant movement it has turned out to be true.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Anuran that is my intuition too. But there is no overwhelming data to support it.

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The fact that there is no data does bother me. But remember NVC sent out email asking for the fee from those with PD in June? If they do not move the cutoff to June, hope they put the money in a decent money market account. I do believe there are still more unknowns scuttling the predictions. Cheers.

Eventhough I'm happy for the date movement, it clearly creates doubts about how DOS is predicting with given inventory. Still don't understand why they hinted in May bulletin that there will be no likely movement in June bulletin. It's just so easy for them to inform different scenarios, and I don't know what changed their thinking so much in just 1 week of May.

I think DOS is frustrated with USCIS that they haven't kept a count on new I-140s approved with older PDs to see what is the upgrade demand.

I think DOS is in game mode now ..it will do what it did with family-based cases. It will push dates as far as it can to use up all visas and then retrogress in October.


PS: In the downturn of 2008-2009, a few Indians abandoned their GC process and went back to India. Most attorneys advised them to withdraw their applications. I thought we could possible see a miniscule effect in the USCIS inventory. But that was not to be.

I am sure we will see a drop of a few thousand applications when compared to our estimates on PERM approvals.

Speculation, Just like the Crude Oil eh... :)

While I can see the dates in Mumbai embassy, I can not see the June 2011 VB in Travel.State.Gov website.

Can any one see the June 2011 VB now?

Q,

I think your source was correct about the 'significant' part. This particular jump by itself might not be spectacular, but it definitely indicates a trend in the right direction. This blog has become the best coping outlet for GC venting. Thanks to all the guys out there.

Not yet. It will be interesting to see any guidance but, I suspect there wouldn't be much. I have a feeling that DOS did not get inputs relative to porting cases, so they moved dates by 3.5 months, just to test waters.

While porting cases are not many, there are enough that could not have caused dates move by 3.5 months before the spillover season.

The June 2011 bulletin is out! Oct 2006 for EB2IC stands good.

The only thing I could find out that is significant and over and above what we have already discussed is "At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal.". That's good.

As we have always said porting is probably just enough to cover EB2I or max EB2IC annual limit. If 3.5 months is "significant" movemement then porting equal to annual limit being called "heavy demand" isn't a stretch of imagination.

So long...

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5452.html


As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because India had reached its Employment Second annual limit.

Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability.

Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011.

that was a good explanation,

Q, do you believe EB5, EB2-ROW spill is already being used?

I think all this movement so far is purely due to EB1. How about Spec Veni Teddy and others?

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Originally Posted by bieber

that was a good explanation,

Q, do you believe EB5, EB2-ROW spill is already being used?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

The June 2011 bulletin is out! Oct 2006 for EB2IC stands good.

The only thing I could find out that is significant and over and above what we have already discussed is "At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal.". That's good.

As we have always said porting is probably just enough to cover EB2I or max EB2IC annual limit. If 3.5 months is "significant" movemement then porting equal to annual limit being called "heavy demand" isn't a stretch of imagination.

So long...

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Here is the full explanatory text.

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VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE CATEGORY

As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because India had reached its Employment Second annual limit.

Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability.

Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think all this movement so far is purely due to EB1. How about Spec Veni Teddy and others?

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Q,

I agree with that assessment.

I still have a worry that the effective EB2-ROW approvals are a bit higher than last year. Together with 3k less quota for EB2, the numbers provided towards SOFAD from EB2 may not be as high as last year.

On the other hand, processing times have increased, so it may be a wash.

Spec

delaying the bulletin for couple of days to findout the upgrade demand is minimal sounds scientific to me :)

They will most likely see some porting demand for dates between Aug-Oct2006 and if that is substantial (say 500-1000) they will stop moving dates in July bulletin and then findout the demand is minimal compared to sofad supply and hopefully they have no option left except to make the date current :)

This is all great news for EB2 (I). Thanks for all the great work by Teddy, Q, Spec, Veni & others. You guys are really awesome. Please take a bow :)

And all the kudos to the folks who are stopping EB1 fraud filing by .... companies.. This is making such a huge difference and hopefully genuine folks deserve much better.
Better late than never.

Hopefully the dates should move by atleast 3-4 months in the next VB so that I get a chance to get GREEN :)

I think we r in sync. I have the same worry too. As long as ROWMP consume same as last year (i.e. 27K) we should still see 7.5K SOFAD.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,
I still have a worry that the effective EB2-ROW approvals are a bit higher than last year. Together with 3k less quota for EB2, the numbers provided towards SOFAD from EB2 may not be as high as last year.

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thanks to Q, teddy, spec, veni and all....you guys are awesome!

Q,

We have crossed the Pessimistic scenario. Do you plan to update the Page 1 (very first thread) with new developments? Thanks.

gcw07

Q - this new bulletin talks that there is a retrogression possible if they see heavy demand..what do you think?

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Originally Posted by justintime

Q - this new bulletin talks that there is a retrogression possible if they see heavy demand..what do you think?

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justintime,

My personal opinion.

I think this is more of a caveat to cover all the bases and try to diminish expectations.

I don't think DOS are unaware of the frenzy that the movement to date has caused.

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Originally Posted by justintime

Q - this new bulletin talks that there is a retrogression possible if they see heavy demand..what do you think?

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As far as my intuition tells me, retrogression statement in the bulletin is GOOD news. It just means, they MAY advance dates well ahead of where they want to peg it for this year and give people an opportunity to file 485.
God Speed to everyone ! :)

Thanks Spec and ravi.shah!.
My pr date is at the end of Sep 2006 and will be current next month..
I cant quite get off priority date threads and not quite get onto "What to do when you date is current" threads..hanging there in the middle for now.. :)
and then I look forward to go to "What to do when you have GC" threads to "R2IClubforums.." happy times Cheers!

Hey Q , thumbs up to you for getting the heads up on significant movement for EB2-I/C from your inner circle. ;) Thanks. Keep this movement rollin.

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Originally Posted by shaumack

Hey Q , thumbs up to you for getting the heads up on significant movement for EB2-I/C from your inner circle. ;) Thanks. Keep this movement rollin.

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I think Q's inner circle friend got current this month:)
Not sure he will call CO next month :D
Much Thanks Q, for the bull's eye breaking news !

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Originally Posted by justintime

Thanks Spec and ravi.shah!.
My pr date is at the end of Sep 2006 and will be current next month..
I cant quite get off priority date threads and not quite get onto "What to do when you date is current" threads..hanging there in the middle for now.. :)
and then I look forward to go to "What to do when you have GC" threads to "R2IClubforums.." happy times Cheers!

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Congratulations justintime ! You are literally just-in-time :)
Good luck in all your future endeavors ...

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think all this movement so far is purely due to EB1. How about Spec Veni Teddy and others?

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Q/ Spec/ Veni & others,

Knowing the cautious approach of DoS and CO, I will say PART of EB1 FD is used now, to reach 10/15/2006.

Further they have reconciled the upgrade demand and they may be aware to some extent to say that it is minimal.

Another 4K to 8K is leftout in EB1 FD, EB5 FD would provide 7K to 8K and EB2 ROW would give another 7K to 8K.

My guess is that there is another 18K to 24K, SOFAD may be avilable.

Please offer your comments. Thanks.

Q, Teddy, Spec, Veni, Kd, etc..

What do you guys think the purpose of watching out the demand to set the cut off date at this time, are there any chances they can approve newly filed 485s before oct or soon after that? I mean to say can they just assign a number in this fy and process the cases in oct,nov next fiscal?

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

Q,
We have crossed the Pessimistic scenario. Do you plan to update the Page 1 (very first thread) with new developments? Thanks.
gcw07

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Thanks. Will do by weekend.

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Originally Posted by justintime

Q - this new bulletin talks that there is a retrogression possible if they see heavy demand..what do you think?

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I do not think there will be retrogression unless they move into 2008. Also what ravi says below is a good observation.

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Originally Posted by ravi.shah

As far as my intuition tells me, retrogression statement in the bulletin is GOOD news. It just means, they MAY advance dates well ahead of where they want to peg it for this year and give people an opportunity to file 485.
God Speed to everyone ! :)

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Originally Posted by ravi.shah

I think Q's inner circle friend got current this month:)
Not sure he will call CO next month :D
Much Thanks Q, for the bull's eye breaking news !

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He is a good friend. I don't think he will leave us high and dry.

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

I will say PART of EB1 FD is used now, to reach 10/15/2006.
My guess is that there is another 18K to 24K, SOFAD may be avilable.

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Because of your EB1 assumption, your numbers are higher. I would be comfortable with a figure like 16K. However, I agree 18-24K is not impossible.

- According to the current demand data the total inventoried demand in approximation was 30K. This does not include PWMB or future porting anyway for date movement they should not count.
- Out of that 6K will be cleared out in June that is approximately how many people are current.
- Now we should match it with the spillover that is left to come it is a) EB1 should be another 8k (Out of the 12K I believe still only 9K is allocated so there is 3K more to go) in the coming days 5K more can come b) EB2 ROW 8K (Most people agree on this figure) c) EB5 - 8K.
- Now this is approximately equal to the remaining demand however even though DOS may not consider PWMB and future porting they offer at least a 5K buffer to them. Now even if they are able to attach a cap number before and not approving the case immediately the numbers don't go waste.
- Another thing to learn from last year is that in the spillover quarter they tend to limit it to 7-8K per month something like distributing the load. So a few numbers (5K More) could make the intake happen in September itself, but it definitely has to happen by Q1 / Q2 2012.
- The 24K additional SOFAD numbers that is my guess is centrist it’s not too optimistic nor too pessimistic. I would say that the Sep 2011 date could be anywhere between 01-Apr-2007 to 01-Aug 2007. For the Jul bulletin I hope that the date moves to 01-Feb-2007.

i know i may be asking too much ..but is there any slight chance for eb2-i pd oct-07 this sept'11? if not sept'11 ..then when? more like q1/q2 of 2012 i.e oct-mar 2012? or is it next spillover season?

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

- According to the current demand data the total inventoried demand in approximation was 30K. This does not include PWMB or future porting anyway for date movement they should not count.
- Out of that 6K will be cleared out in June that is approximately how many people are current.
- Now we should match it with the spillover that is left to come it is a) EB1 should be another 8k (Out of the 12K I believe still only 9K is allocated so there is 3K more to go) in the coming days 5K more can come b) EB2 ROW 8K (Most people agree on this figure) c) EB5 - 8K.
- Now this is approximately equal to the remaining demand however even though DOS may not consider PWMB and future porting they offer at least a 5K buffer to them. Now even if they are able to attach a cap number before and not approving the case immediately the numbers don't go waste.
- Another thing to learn from last year is that in the spillover quarter they tend to limit it to 7-8K per month something like distributing the load. So a few numbers (5K More) could make the intake happen in September itself, but it definitely has to happen by Q1 / Q2 2012.
- The 24K additional SOFAD numbers that is my guess is centrist it’s not too optimistic nor too pessimistic. I would say that the Sep 2011 date could be anywhere between 01-Apr-2007 to 01-Aug 2007. For the Jul bulletin I hope that the date moves to 01-Feb-2007.

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--> My personal request, please make that 08-Feb-2007 :)

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Originally Posted by pravara

--> My personal request, please make that 08-Feb-2007 :)

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If Teddy is the CO, he would make every one as current :)