I had accounted all EB2nonIC SO in the 1000 to 1400 SO estimation.Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
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I had accounted all EB2nonIC SO in the 1000 to 1400 SO estimation.Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
That is a lot of EB3i available Visas in the next 3 yrs. Would that mean that there will be EB2I to EB3I reverse porting like in the case of China? I am more inclined to believe this prediction if I see RFE's start rolling out for March2005 PD's. Till that time, it is all up in the air.Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
Once EB3-I hits 2007, there could be an avalanche of applications hitting EB3-I queue.Quote:
Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar
How? Isn't it obvious that most from 07-09 have already ported to EB2? That is evident as EB2I is struggling to move beyond mid-2009.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
Not everyone in EB3 is a porting candidate. I am guessing there would be lot more non-porting candidates than porting candidates. Moreover once EB3 becomes current, there won't be any motivation for porting.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting
Does this mean the Eb3-i dates will be flushed quickly and there would be reverse porting
Thanks YT. Can you please elaborate on this. How did you reach to this calculation of 16000 numbers for EB3I for 2016. As per you, what will be the final action date for EB3 at the end of 2016 and 2017?
******************************************
Here are my thoughts:
As I said earlier, EB2-I don't get any relief until the EB3-I catches up with EB2-I cutoff dates and upward porting gets to ZERO.
Also, I said going forward we should not see the EB3-I and EB2-I separately but both together.
I believe from here on these two categories will move closely with NO differences in the cut of dates.
In fact, I think EB2-I dates will follow the EB3-I dates until the next recession or at least till next 3 years.
Here are how the numbers look for these 2 categories in the next 2 years:
-------------------------------
TotalVisas| EB3-I | Eb2-I
-------------------------------
FY2016 |16000 | 4000
FY2017 |16000 | 4000
FY2018 |16000 | 4000
-------------------------------
******************************************
You are right. I personally know few EB3I applicants with 2010/2011 PDs and they haven't ported and still in EB3 queue. Their company doesn't in EB2 category. Also they are not in hurry and happy with their current job. So they are not switching the job either.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
Thanks
All the people within 01MAY2010 would have migrated from EB3 to EB2. As it was current in the FY2012.Quote:
Originally Posted by Suva2001
Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2NOV10
Don't think *all* would have ported from Eb3 - As someone said earlier, there are still a huge # of EB3s sitting in EB3 queue. But whosoever ported would have been greened by now. Am still hopeful of YT's projections. Once 2007 is behind for EB3, as projected by YT, that'd bring a huge relief, nevertheless.
Second factor is if CO keeps EB2 at same pace as EB3, it might reduce the porting pace and might bring some 'visibility' for him (in the way he works) to forecast demand better.
We can worry about it once the current inventory is cleared out or is low enough for CO to advance the dates beyond July 07. Once dates go beyond July 07, at least people will be able to file AOS. Whatever the number is, at least it will show up in the inventory report. Most Indians file in EB2 from 2010 onwards. It is apparent from the I-140 data.Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatha
So there 56,105 perm certifications for Q1+Q2. If we exclude India + China (30,930 +4764 = 35694) gives a grand ROW total (EB2+EB3) of 20411. Assuming that there is a dependent for each ROW GC filer it will give a grand total of 40822. Total Eb2+EB3 quota is 80800. The net flow should be 80800-11520( Eb2+EB3 India china )= 69280. How in the world are the dates made to retogress.
The whole thing very much cooked up !!
Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatha
I agree. I dont think there has been a whole lot (maybe minimal) approvals for 2009 eb2 dates for the people who filed in 2012 when the eb2-I filing date moved to May 1, 2010.
A while back someone had given very interesting statistics on how the dates have just gone back on forth for eb2I without any substantial approvals for people who filed in 2012.
I guess I should be happy I was lucky enough to apply then and get an EAD, but GC seems to be far ways out.
Hi YT,Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
I am interested too in how you reached the number 16k from your original 20k. Is it simply because of recent faster PERM processing and the EB3ROW inventory and demand may not be as low as you originally thought? If you can elaborate your calculations on 16k, that will be great. Most of us have a much more conservative number in mind.
Seems quite a few folks are interested in YT's calculation of 16000 for 2016 and he seems to be busy, let's wait until/when he/YT gets a chance to reply..
=============
Thanks YT. Can you please elaborate on this. How did you reach to this calculation of 16000 numbers for EB3I for 2016. As per you, what will be the final action date for EB3 at the end of 2016 and 2017?
************
Here are my thoughts:
As I said earlier, EB2-I don't get any relief until the EB3-I catches up with EB2-I cutoff dates and upward porting gets to ZERO.
Also, I said going forward we should not see the EB3-I and EB2-I separately but both together.
I believe from here on these two categories will move closely with NO differences in the cut of dates.
In fact, I think EB2-I dates will follow the EB3-I dates until the next recession or at least till next 3 years.
Here are how the numbers look for these 2 categories in the next 2 years:
-------------------------------
TotalVisas| EB3-I | Eb2-I
-------------------------------
FY2016 |16000 | 4000
FY2017 |16000 | 4000
FY2018 |16000 | 4000
-------------------------------
************
=============
Quote:
Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting
FYI,
Greg Siskind's lawsuit against USCIS has been dismissed by the judge and government's motion to deny has been approved. This brings an official closure to the Visagate lawsuit. I am little disappointed but this was not unexpected at all so I am at peace with it.
Co-incidentally today I got the news of this lawsuit dismissal and within minutes I got an email from my attorney that my cap-exempt H1B got approved for 3 more years. I will be starting my 10th year on H1B from mid June, 2016. I have 100% confidence that I will not be current before 2019-2020 with a PD of May 20, 2011 in EB2I, unless some kind of immigration reform happens.
This has been posted on the Murthy site http://www.murthy.com/2016/05/19/jun...retrogression/
It gives some insights into why CO felt the need to retrogress EB2-I so severely.
a) EB1 usage is high and a Cut Off Date may be necessary before year end.
b) EB2-ROW use is very high and no SO within EB2 is anticipated.
If true, that would only leave EB2-I with the base 2.8k allocation.
Quote:
June Visa Bulletin: Explanations for Retrogression
May 19, 2016
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) provides a monthly visa bulletin "check in" with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division. The most recent check in provides insights into some of the unexpected developments in the June 2016 Visa Bulletin, as well as some predictions for upcoming visa bulletins. The cutoff dates discussed below are all from the final action (FA) chart. The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is only allowing the use of the FA chart in June for purposes of filing an adjustment-of-status application (form I-485).
Employment-Based, First Preference (EB1)
The demand for EB1 worldwide visa numbers continues to be very high. The DOS cautions that, if the demand levels continue at the current rate, "corrective action" (i.e. establishment of a cutoff date) may be necessary before the end of the fiscal year.
Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2)
Worldwide and India
The demand for EB2 worldwide is extremely high. As the result of this demand level, the DOS advises that there will not be any unused numbers available to shift to EB2 India and China.
The combination of high levels of demand for visa numbers in the EB2 India category with the lack of excess numbers from EB2 worldwide, made it necessary to retrogress the EB2 India cutoff date to October 1, 2004. Part of the EB2 India demand is attributed to EB3 upgrade cases, which are not visible to the DOS until the visa number is requested. Greater visibility in this area, according to the DOS, would reduce the need to abruptly retrogress the cutoff date. The DOS expects that the EB2 India cutoff date will advance slowly for the rest of the fiscal year, at a pace similar to the EB3 advancement.
China
The June 2016 Visa Bulletin contains retrogression in the EB2 China category, as well. The cutoff date for EB2 China moves back to January 1, 2010, as does EB3 China. Since the cutoff dates for both categories are the same, and are expected to remain so for the rest of the fiscal year, there will no longer be a motivation for applicants chargeable to China to downgrade from EB2 to EB3 in the immediate future.
Employment-Based, Fourth Preference (EB4)
The DOS expects that the FA cutoff date established in the EB4 category for those chargeable to El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras will remain unchanged for the rest of the fiscal year. It is also expected that EB4 for India and Mexico will retrogress to the same January 1, 2010 cutoff date in the near future. The need for this cutoff date is, in part, due to a lack of excess numbers that would otherwise be available.
Conclusion
As always, the explanations and insights provided by Mr. Oppenheim are appreciated. MurthyDotCom will continue to track developments related to the monthly visa bulletin, and will post updates as new information becomes available.
Copyright © 2016, MURTHY LAW FIRM. All Rights Reserved
Here's another one from CI Law Group http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2016/...m-may-18-2016/
This one mentions for EB3-I that "Gradual forward movement is expected with a possible cutoff date around early 2005 by September Visa Bulletin." That's a bit disappointing to say the least.
Quote:
Visa Bulletin Predictions and Updates from Charles Oppenheim (May 18, 2016)
By Dimo R. Michailov, Esq.|May 18th, 2016|Articles, News Alert, Visa Bulletin
Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. For many, he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards. He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month. Our access and proximity to Mr. Oppenheim allows us to provide immediate updates on expected Visa Bulletin movements and we are proud to be among the first to report.
We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin predictions and when a particular priority date may become current. As a result, on behalf of our clients, we appreciate the opportunity Mr. Oppenheim has afforded us to get some sense of the movement of the priority dates and also on short- and long-term immigrant visa number trends.
Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points
No movement is expected in EB-2 and EB-3 China. EB-2 India may move forward very gradually over the next few months with EB-2 ROW and EB-1 India/China are expected to have a cutoff date within the last two Visa Bulletins for the fiscal year (August or September 2016).
General Visa Number Trends
Mr. Oppenheim spent a few minutes to describe the visa number allocation process and reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context, especially, the demand for visa numbers is greater because of dependents being added — each green card application case is, therefore, “larger” than previously expected and instead of one visa number, if often includes two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children). For example, Mr. Oppenheim has previously indicated that in the not-so-distant past, each employment-based India case took 1.4 visa numbers on average while right now, each employment-based India case takes on average 2.5 visa numbers.
As a result, and in recognition of the additional fact that many EB-3 India and China candidates are now eligible for porting and are now applying under the EB-2 category, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the EB-3, in addition to EB-2 visa numbers, are expected to remain oversubscribed, particularly for Indian nationals.
He also indicated that there is a significant number of EB-3 to EB-2 India porting cases and the mechanics of the EB-3 to EB-2 porting do not allow advance notification to the Department of State’s Visa Office. This causes a significant number of EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases to “appear” without advance warning to the Visa Office and, as a result, the Visa Office has to hold cutoff dates back (or to retrogress) to accommodate such porting case.
Unfortunately, today’s comments by Mr. Oppenheim do not bring much good news for those hoping for fast cutoff date advancement. Mr. Oppenheim shared that he sees a significantly higher than normal demand in the employment-based categories – often two times the historical and expected amount. This, naturally, causes him to hold back the cutoff dates or, as we say in the June 2016 Visa Bulletin, to retrogress significantly.
Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the EB-1 and EB-5 categories are relatively “popular” this year and expects more numbers to be used in these categories, compared to the past years. This high demand also means that there will be less “leftover” visa numbers available to allocate to other categories, such as EB-2 India and China which would further contribute to the slow EB-2 India forward movement.
On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).
Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based
Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months. Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.
EB-1 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.
EB-1 India and China. Due to high demand in this category, there is high likelihood that a cutoff date will be instituted by the September Visa Bulletin.
EB-2 ROW. Due to high demand, it is possible that this category will have a cutoff date by the September Visa Bulletin.
EB-2 China. No movement is expected for the remainder of the fiscal year.
EB-2 India. Likely to stay one week ahead of EB-3 India; possible very gradual forward movement over the next few months.
EB-3 ROW. This category is expected to move forward gradually over the next months to continue to stimulate “demand”.
EB-3 China. No movement is expected for the remainder of the fiscal year.
EB-3 India. Gradual forward movement is expected with a possible cutoff date around early 2005 by September Visa Bulletin.
EB-5. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is at the highest level ever. For the next fiscal year EB-5 is expected to be current for everyone except EB-5 China (which takes most of the EB-5 immigrant visas).
On Predicting the Visa Bulletin Cutoff Dates
Mr. Oppenheim shared his thoughts on the ability of others outside of his office to predict reliably the cutoff date movements. He suggested that while some of the datapoints that go into determining the cutoff dates are available — demand data, number filings — there is so much more (variables and data, some of which is impossible to get) that goes into a cutoff date determination in each visa bulletin that a reliable prediction is impossible for anyone including, sometimes, the Visa Office of Mr. Oppenheim. There are many variables that affect the demand. For example, the recent retrogression of EB-2 India is due to the fact that there are “extraordinary number” of EB-3 to EB-2 India porting cases plus an unexpectedly high demand in EB-2 cases generally. Mr. Oppenheim cannot predict how many of the EB-3 India candidates will end up porting into EB-2 — as a result, by the time he “sees” an EB-2 India case, he has not anticipated for it and has to slow down or retrogress EB-2 India to be able to accommodate EB-2 India applicants with early priority dates.
Conclusion
Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months. We urge EB-2 ROW and EB-1 India/China applicants to be aware of the possibility of a cutoff date being introduced for a month or two late in the summer. With respect to EB-2 India and China, the high demand likely means that there may not be much notable movement until the new fiscal year begins on October 1, 2016 and the annual visa number allocations are reset.
Spec, why the constant punishment to EB3I? its as if CO doesn't want to clear the backlog here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Disappointing but I wouldn't count on this being the final word yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Agreed.
I hope you both expect it to be better than early 2005Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Looks like WhereismyGC has come out of the phase of people not knowing us. CO although doesn't talk about us - he clearly is talking about WhereismyGC - given we are the only commercial GC prediction service available out there.Quote:
On Predicting the Visa Bulletin Cutoff Dates
Mr. Oppenheim shared his thoughts on the ability of others outside of his office to predict reliably the cutoff date movements. He suggested that while some of the datapoints that go into determining the cutoff dates are available — demand data, number filings — there is so much more (variables and data, some of which is impossible to get) that goes into a cutoff date determination in each visa bulletin that a reliable prediction is impossible for anyone including, sometimes, the Visa Office of Mr. Oppenheim. There are many variables that affect the demand. For example, the recent retrogression of EB-2 India is due to the fact that there are “extraordinary number” of EB-3 to EB-2 India porting cases plus an unexpectedly high demand in EB-2 cases generally. Mr. Oppenheim cannot predict how many of the EB-3 India candidates will end up porting into EB-2 — as a result, by the time he “sees” an EB-2 India case, he has not anticipated for it and has to slow down or retrogress EB-2 India to be able to accommodate EB-2 India applicants with early priority dates.
We are thankful for his attention and thoughtful comments that convey that prediction is an uncertain endeavor.
Prediction by nature is never accurate. If it is accurate, then more than likely it is a scientific law of nature than a forecast.
At WhereismyGC we have modeled the GC process reasonably well. We have modeled key categories, key countries, their limits and how visas overflow from one category to other as time progresses. We have also modeled any category adjustments due to upgrades downgrades. We have modeled the Counselor processing vs 485s.
Finally, we allow the model to operate on dynamic and flexible inputs. So we can wax and wane the inputs to model based on external incidents.
We don't disagree that with all of this - there still is a fair amount of uncertainty in how events will unfold. We can know only AFTER THE FACT certain policy decisions e.g. clearing backlogs by certain agencies. Those kind of things do throw us off. But in terms of "secular" demand itself - and we have been doing it for almost 3-4 years now - we generally don't get things wrong.
Here is the most important thing that our users should remember:
WhereismyGC doesn't aim to tell you precisely which month you are going to get GC. We will consider ourselves successful if we can predict it well within 2 quarters for 80% people. There will always be 20% people whose GC cases have some idiosyncrasies or get caught up in processing idiosyncrasies. Our prediction can't predict idiosyncrasies.
If we can nail down the prediction to two quarters in a year - that is very useful for people who for last 5-6 years have been thinking that they are going to get GC next year. Case in point are the EB2-I 2009 folks. There are ample people from 2007-8 who received GCs in 2011. So naturally 2009 folks have been eagerly waiting for their turn. Unfortunately the dates keep lingering in 2008 and early 2009 with unfortunate retrogression in 2004-5.
Our forecast is there to give a realistic timeline to such people who should plan their life/career with these realistic data points in mind.
There are things we can control and there are things that we can NOT control. For the things we can't control - it helps if we educate ourselves and establish clarity. That's what WhereismyGC's forecast attempts to do. Good luck and best wishes to everybody.
another point i noticed and which is scary is cutoff for Eb2 RoW. If that happens future filings for RoW will be in Eb3 which means less SO for Eb3I???Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
My first advice to CO, stop predicting visa bulletins. It is not his job. His responsibility is to understand INA properly and allocate visas as per the demand, PD and country quota. He need to worry only about the visa requests coming in from USCIS and allocate it appropriately. Q's site is able to predict movement more accurately than CO because Q and team takes into consideration all available data. All CO listens to is the "accurate information" that he gets from USCIS. So what can he do ? Complain about USCIS inefficiency to administration and stop predicting. He won't complain to administration because that will affect his job security. As a government employee he is getting his salary every month regardless of whether he does his job or not !
This is from
http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2016/...m-may-18-2016/
Quote:
EB-3 ROW. This category is expected to move forward gradually over the next months to continue to stimulate “demand”.
So looks like CO is trying to stimulate the demand which he is not getting from EB3 ROW. But he doesn't want to accept the fact and release the SO to EB3 I. This shows how pathetic the process is. He is reserving visas for people who did not join the line yet while there are others waiting for more than a decade. This is heights of discrimination.
It is better for us to reach to congressman and Senators for CO's discriminatory behavior.Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
That may be true... But I thought he could assess possible visas only in the last quarter. So am hopeful we will have more fireworks in eb3 from next month
Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
Can someone post what CO thought of in 2015 and 2014 ? I am getting a deja vu feeling. P.S. : I am not trying to be too hopeful but also don't want to feel awful.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
What, in your opinion, are the chances of EB3I FAD crossing Mar2005 or reaching the Filing date?
Hi guys,
Any updates to the EB2 predictions for rest of the year and next year, based on the most current information we have available?
Q - the predictions on whereismyGC has been unchanged since the last update. Is that prediction still valid?
Thanks,
Sometimes I think, is it really worth the wait? I will be turning 40 in next few months. Had lot of dreams and energy which I see fading away now. My PD is Sep 2010 and not sure when I will get my GC. It's been 8 years since we went to India. Kids are growing fast.
So I still feel if it is worth waiting. Sometimes I feel to pack up everything and just move back to India :mad:. I think we will take that decision also shortly as we do not see any ray of hope here.
Why did you not go to India for 8 years? Worried about stamping? Join a Full time employer and leave the shady desi consultancy!Quote:
Originally Posted by richie.rich
If it is getting that difficult then you should do what your heart says.Quote:
Originally Posted by richie.rich
What has going to India got to do with the wait? I am also Sept 2010. I usually go to India every 8 months or so ..about 3 times every two years. Hopefully twice a year once my company moves to a PTO policy next year.Quote:
Originally Posted by richie.rich
http://www.murthy.com/2016/05/25/dos...d-predictions/
In this link there is a comment about EB3
Little Demand for EB3 Worldwide Category
The DOS reports that there is very little demand in the EB3 worldwide, category. Thus, the cutoff date remains close to current. EB3 India will benefit by the shift of some otherwise unused visa numbers from EB3 worldwide. DOS predictions are that EB3 India will advance to February or March 2005 by September 2016.
Looking for opinion of experts here. So will EB3-I move to cover March2005 or mid 2005 or whole of 2005?
Don't see it on any other website.
I'll be more than happy if EB3-I clears out, those folks (barring few substitute labor) have been waiting for a long time. Hope this is their year and they actually get through this.
Also, is there a way to complain about EB1-C abuse by companies without giving any beneficiary name. I know a company abusing this category but don't want to cause any trouble to its employees.
I hate to bring up the animosity/jealousy or whatever you call it b/w I/C vs ROW, EB2 vs EB3, EB1-C vs other...since in the eyes on American politicians, we're all in one bucket - Immigrants. They don't know and care about EB2, EB3 etc. In fact, when you talk to the admins in office of these politicians, they don't know EB2, EB3, PD etc, all they know is we're "high skilled" and waiting for GC's.Quote:
Originally Posted by srisri
But becoming increasingly pessimistic about the future and it makes me mad when I see these people who work for me as contractors filing in EB1C from Infosys, Genpact, CTS etc. They update documentation, test, run scripts, solve tickets and then end up getting GC in 5 months. I have see 50 people who I know over the last 3-4 years.
Maybe highlighting this EB1C abuse will be the only option for people with later PD's. Mine is 2010 and I have EAD so in 2-3 years I might get GC. But for ppl with PD's in 2011, 2012 and onwards, this might get more ugly.
Its a change to even hear that people doing documentation and testing are being filed in EB1 by companies like Infosys, Genpact, CTS etc when earlier they never used to file for GC until they reach the 6th year or so. Especially knowing very well that once anyone gets a GC, they are free birds.Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
I am a 2010 prospect and was thinking the dates will come for the last two years and have been pushing it out every year by two year. I am not even sure if I get to file for EAD in the next two year.
I would like to find out if there is anyway that we can report such blatant abuse .... I have searched online but not found any place where we can email facts viz names, poitions etc to USCIS so they can investigate eb1C abuse .... i have found email where USCIS encourages ppl to report eb5 abuse or fraud but nothing regarding eb1C .....Quote:
Originally Posted by srimurthy