Between the Jan and April inventories, EB3I has reduced by approx 750 for 2004 - 2007. That has to be porting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
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Between the Jan and April inventories, EB3I has reduced by approx 750 for 2004 - 2007. That has to be porting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Do you see those 750 added to EB2I ?Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Viz
My understanding is as follows:
Inventory = documentarily qualified (but not necessarily preadjudicated) 485 cases. It doesn't include CP.
Demand Data = demand data for cases that are preadjudicated and a visa has been requested. It does include CP and 485 cases for which a visa has been requested (but not necessarily granted).
So based on this understanding if 485 numbers and demand data numbers for EB2I are close to each other then it could mean that yes indeed the cases are pre-adjudicated and ready for a visa + that CP cases for EB2I are minimal if at all.
As per ported cases, a ported case (i.e. the one filed later) may not figure in either demand data or 485 inventory for entirely different reasons:
USCIS won't ask for a separate visa. Instead they will simply change the existing visa request with new category / classification. So demand data will not be impacted overall (although category composition does change)
Whereas as per 485 inventory, if the ported category is current then the case gets approved before becoming part of 485 inventory. Only if the ported category is not current, the case will start appearing in 485 inventory as EB2 along with the corresponding EB3 case.
I know my understand may not perfect --- since none of us really know -- so consider this as a logical way of looking at things.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Let me post my prediction also, I'm not a Guru but just learning along the way:
We have 11K real spill over to EB2I last year (with 4K FB visa) because EB2I ate 6K of EB2ROW last year.
This year EB2I may again have 11K spillover but 6K will go to EB2ROW (because of last year cutoff of EB2ROW). So total left SO will be 5K for EB2I.
Now with 18K FB extra visas, EB2I is going to get another 8-9K additional visa. So total will 13K-14K.
EB1 is not going to consume 40K like last year. It will give another 5K. With addition of this total SO will be 13K+5K= 18K to EB2I SO. We may have higher usage of EB4 and EB5 but additional FB visas will offset those demand.
18K spillover will be final number to EB2I.
April 13 inventory of I-485 is showing 12984 cases pending prior to May 1 2008. If we consider porting and some additional dependent visas for porters, 18K SO will clear out all case till some date in May 2008.
Hi AllQuote:
Originally Posted by erikbond101
I counted 15,769 before July 2008.What else are we adding to them?So I thought if we have 18K coming in ,then dates should be July 2008.Is it correct or my calculations are wrong?Thanks!
Why are about 520 added to Eb2I 2004 to 2007. If the apps are not added to the EB2 Queue if dates are not current then where are these extra cases coming from ? USCIS is so inefficient that they are adding the cases that were current last year now?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Sbhagawat,
If for instance the above logic is true, then the following should be true.
Porting numbers are guesstimated around 5000 to 7500 (Matt) this FY and we have already passed a half year, then the current inventory must reflect at least 2500 to 3750 more in EB2I with the reduction of same or less in EB3.
See, I am not arguing against other's way of understanding and with no proper documentation of how porting cases are handled is available at this point of time, it is all assumption to our convenience.
I already have mentioned about this that I differ from others in this particular subject. I stop here.
Well estimates can be wrong . I am basing by arguments on data in the inventory not estimates. The Fact is that numbers are increasing when dates are not current. It can either be porting applications added when dates not current or USCIS being the most inefficient body in this world. So see I am not arguing for or against anything I am just stating the factsQuote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Hi Viz,Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I somehow missed your question before, I noticed only when Q answered your question.
April Inventory numbers are very close to May Demand in EB2I and EB3I. So I dont think there is a huge number of CP cases in demand.So mostly all cases are pre-adjudicated for both EB2I and EB3I. As porting happens based on an underlying approved I-140, in I-485 terms they are also pre-adjudicated, irrespective of where they are counted( EB3 Vs EB2). I am not sure how they merge an EB3 case into EB2, but from what I have observed in trackitt the approval takes around three weeks.
Then why is EB3I dropping where EB2I PD's are not current. Also why is EB2I increasing where PD is not current. EB2I increased by 584 cases where PD is not current in inventory. EB3I decreased by 1118 where PD is not current in EB2. This is just by comparing October 2012 Inventory to April 2013 inventory.
In June Demand data EB2I made a further increase where PD is not current. So I am not sure how to interpret it. The increases we see are not very close to the expected porting figures,so it is not that porting is getting reflected. All that I could think is some data cleansing is happening, and the increases and decreases is a reflection of it. Most optimistically thinking a minor percentage of porting somehow is getting reflected.
But for calculation purposes I will stick with the official version that Q stated in his reply.
Matt.
Kanmani - whats your stand on this subject? Are you saying that porting numbers are getting reflected in EB2 already?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I stand by my posts #1671, #1674.
I am not sure, but my understanding is, they stay as EB3 in the inventory and removed after the case is adjudicated (GC)
I'll try to prove myself wrong for the sake our betterment in the subject.
Ok got it Kanmani - thanks !!Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the March 2013 figures, for those that follow this.
What I also think that majority of porting numbers are accounted either in inventory and or in demand and porting numbers in 2005-2007 does not appear that high.
Then why the PD remained same for the last many months? I can not say as we do not know how many the visa numbers allotted during this time?
As per the inventory, the difference between Jan 2005 and Jan 2007 during October 2012 and April 2013 is +504 cases. On an average there is an addition 20 cases per month during this period (Oct'12-Apr'13) with a minimum of 0 and maximum of 73. Are these the cases that were previously submitted (pre-June'12) and getting qualified with time and hence being added into the inventory?Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
Hey Spec,
We need your expertise in analyzing this data
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/package...ation-h1-b.pdf
I understand that this covers EB1/2/3 and may not exactly useful but it tells something fascinating for sure.
It also makes me wonder if we should all start filing FOIA requests with USCIS so we can get data for Spec to analyze.
Thanks!
kd,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
I agree it is interesting, but in a very frustrating way!!
As someone has already pointed out in the Trackitt thread, the data is only for people who held H1B status at the time they filed their I-485. It is therefore only a small part of the total I-485 receipts.
For India, given relatively few people in years other than FY2012 could file a new I-485 in EB2 or EB3, the majority of receipts probably relate to EB1 filings. It's unlikely many EB4 or EB5 applicants also held H1B status.
For EB2 and EB3 (India), there are likely to have been some filings for Dependents that didn't exist in 2007 and also a few filings for people who missed the boat.
So much is missing. In particular, anybody who filed while in another status - especially L1. That is important for EB1 (EB1C in particular) as well as EB2 and EB3.
The report would also be missing CP cases, since they are not handled by USCIS and do not involve an I-485.
I had a look on the USCIS site and could not find this information. It is a shame that USCIS are providing information but not making it available on their own site.
It's clear that USCIS have at least some capability to produce meaningful reports - it's a shame they don't use that capability. USCIS have not yet published a single All USCIS Application and Petition Form Types Performance Data report this FY. We should have seen two by now.
For reference, USCIS reported 78,302 total EB I-485 receipts in FY2011 and 140,107 total EB I-485 receipts in FY2012, so this report only covers 42% and 48% respectively for FY2011 and FY2012 (the difference being the advancement of EB2-IC Cut Off Dates).
FY2013 appears to be on track for about 32k, if the 19.4k is prorated to the whole year and seems comparable to a normal year.
What are your thoughts on the data? I've only skimmed through it to date, so I well may have missed something.
Anythingwe can say abt eb2 ww looking at this dataQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
whatever Spec wrote in his post about Eb2I related to incomplete data applies to EB2WWQuote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Everyone is really silent on this forum. I guess waiting for July bulletin. Some thoughts -
1. Whats happening with EB2 I? trackitt approvals are down drastically for the third straight month. Wonder whats going on. Is it really demand destruction or there is something else at play. Is it possible with such low demand EB2 I will move w/o SO
2. EB2 WW demand is still high. I was hoping it would fall approvals are still happening at a high rate. I hope it slows down.
3. Any information about EB4 - will we have 2000 SO this year again?
sbhagwat2000,Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
I am certainly waiting for the next VB.
Although Trackitt EB2-I approvals have been low for the last 2 months, I think we have to assume there have been sufficient cases to use the monthly allotments. By the end of May, they should have used between 2.0-2.3k.
Trackitt certainly does not lack pending EB2-I cases ** with pre September 2004 PD who are waiting for approval. Had there been insufficient cases, the Cut Off dates would have moved forward, even if it had been a small amount. **Or EB3-I cases that show an approved I-140 under EB2.
In May, EB2-ROW might, for the first time this FY, come in under the normal average monthly usage, but not by so much that they might also come in under allocation for the year unless approval levels plummet for the rest of the year. Again, there is no lack of Trackitt applications waiting for approval for some time. EB2-P, from very limited data, also looks to be above normal.
I've never seen any information about EB4 published; this year that also seems to apply to EB5. I don't expect CO to mention EB4 in the next VB, but I do hope he will say something about EB1 and EB5 (but that may just be a hope). I am hoping for rather more than 2k SO from EB4, given they have an allocation of 11.2k.
Interesting. So then what do you think is preventing them from using monthly allocation for EB2I? The approvals are just too low to not reflect a change in demand. Also what do number on trackitt do you think represents normal monthly allocation on trackitt for ROW - 60? Is it safe to assume a SO of atleast 7000 for EB2I. And finally do you see some movement in July or your thinking is changing?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
sbhagwat2000,Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
I lost my original reply, so here is a very condensed one.
I think the monthly EB2-I allocation has been used. Either, such old EB2-I dates aren't properly reflected in Trackitt, or the low numbers now are balancing the very high early numbers.
As I calculate, 50 EB2-ROW approvals per month is average. To date, May has 41 and I would expect that to rise to at least 45 (90%) eventually.
I expect to see considerable movement in July. I would be slightly concerned if there is not.
I hope Spec's words come true. Just 10 more days to go....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Do you think dates will cross into 2007 in July vb?
simple answer: MOST LIKELYQuote:
Originally Posted by sandyn16
How far: My hope jan 2008
My prediction jan 2007
If there is no movement in July and no prediction from CO about significant movement then I am using AC21 and changing job, the current one is not sustainable.
One question as we can be unemployed while AOS pending; when I find a new job, can I send the EVL stating that I intend to join as soon as GC approved?
Correct me if I misunderstood your statement, EVL's purpose is not that you intend to join the sponsoring employer, it has to assure the job described in the perm is still available to you. So, if you change job, wait for an RFE( if any) for other correspondences.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
I will give you the hypothetical scenario:Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
1. I have EAD and more than 180 days after 485 aplication.
2. My current employer sponsored the GC
3. I will quit the current employer.
4. I will agree to join employer X as soon as my GC is approved.
5. i will send EVL from employer X stating salary, position and that my intention is to join as soon as GC granted.
The last part is what I am not sure about, should the EVL for AC21 state that I am employed by the employer X and actively working or just the fact that the job is available and I WILL join as soon as GC approved, in the sense I can sta at home for a while without work/pay
indiani,
Invoking AC21 portability enables you to change employers forever, there is no need to join the sponsoring employer after GC. AC21 EVL describes a same or similar job is available to you under the portability requirements from a different employer.
If you intend to join the sponsoring employer after your GC, do you think there is a need to invoke AC21 at all ?
My opinion is a NO.
[QUOTE=Kanmani;35634]indiani,
Invoking AC21 portability enables you to change employers forever,
there is no need to join the sponsoring employer after GC.
I understand the fact that there is no need to wait until GC approved to join new employer but my point is CAN WE WAIT until GC approved to join new employer if we want to?
AC21 EVL describes a same or similar job is available to you under the portability requirements from a different employer.
If you intend to join the sponsoring employer after your GC, do you think there is a need to invoke AC21 at all ?
I think sending EVL from new employer is an optional thing and it all depends upon the risks vs benifits of notifying USCIS about the GC sponsoring employer. If PD is going to be current soon, I will prefer not to inform them and risk RFE as it NOT an absulute requirement.
If you have worked for the sponsor sometime during the GC process, you can immediately quit the sponsor as soon as you receive the GC.
If you have same or similar job offer in hand and the corresponding employer is willing to provide you with EVL, you need not join the original sponsor at all in any stage of your GC process as per AC21 portability provisions !
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Thanks , I was looking for the same answers, as there is AC21 portability law, i think after 180 days after 485 application we can leave employer even the next day after GC. ( even though I don't ahve any plans to do so)
Even if I want to leave the current employer now, as long as I join same and similar job as soon as I get GC I think i should be fine.
I am thinking about being self-employed after GC, I am a physician so finding a job with similar duties is easy anytime and also being self-employed is also easy. I just want to get a "sense of freedom" so I just don't continue to put up with the abusive practices of the employer.
Even though as H-1 employees we are entitled to equal work/pay, its not easy to demand and complain about it as no one wants to take a risk of developping "bad terms " with employer. with last Q of fiscal showing some promise of PD movement , I am anxiously waiting for the PD movement and want to have some peace irrespective of what I find in the bulletins.
Friends,
I have an issue with H1 transfer. I got a job and the company applied for H1 transfer. I haven't quit my current employer, who is my gc sponsorer. My 485 is pending since Jan 2012. There are some issues with the new employer and I don't want to join them anymore. Will it affect my current H1?
Thanks in advance.
It won't affect your current H1b, unless you join the new employer with an approved new H1b.Quote:
Originally Posted by MeraGC1
If you haven't joined the new employer, even though new H1b is approved, old H1b is also valid, you can continue with the old employer.
All Gurus,
Is it necessary to have a cut off date established for EB2-P, if visa allocation crosses 3163 mark for this fiscal?
Thanks,
Matt
Matt,Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
In my opinion, no, because of the operation of the 7% limit at an overall level.
Since FB-P will reach the 7% limit anyway, we can simplify it down to EB numbers.
7% of 158k is 11k.
Philippines use relatively few visas in EB1, EB4, and EB5 (0.6k in FY2012, 0.5k in FY2011).
That means that realistically, EB2-P can use as many visas as they want and not hit the 7% limit.
It may limit EB3-P ability to use as many visas as they might otherwise have done (they used 6.5k last FY).
PS It is quite possible that EB2-P have already reached or exceeded the initial allocation IMO.
Thank you Spec, make sense. I also think that they have almost reached the initial allocation or slightly exceeded it, so was looking for any possible indicators.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Guru's,
Are we 100% sure, in the first bulletin of last quarter we can make a clear indication on where the PD date reach at the end of the FY? or what if we see similar bulletin and DD what we had seen last month over the next month too(like not containing much information to make a 100% correct analysis). In that case we still cann't confirm 100% where the PD date reach at the end of the FY? Am I correct, Pls clarify me on this if am wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
NOV2007,Quote:
Originally Posted by NOV2007
At best, it can only be indicative.
There are several ways date movement could be approached, so nothing would have any certainty. Obviously, a large movement would give better vibes than a small one.