EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Teddy, is there anything that can be related to the Dec VB due to this. I am asking as most people would get nervous reading this.

My opinion is that the Dec VB EB2IC movement would have nothing to do with this. This would be already known to CO last month when he predicted, he has already given out full cap of IC, the qualified demand is not yet down to 0.

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Nishant, the Dec bulletin should not be impacted by this at all. This is all about how many numbers the agencies are releasing for approvals this month. So far none of the approvals have been for people beyond July 15th who were preadjudicated.

However the sooner it comes the better the outcome will be. The bulletin coming sooner means that they want to create a larger pipeline anyway without bothering about how many cases they get this month. While the bulletin coming later indicates that they are monitoring counts at the lockbox centers. Let’s hope for the best for the bulletin, good luck to you and all.

Yes, this is slightly disheartening. But, again anticipated, right? We know that there are only x number of visas that can be allotted and date-movement is to build pipe line.

If the same trend( slow down of approvals) continues for next 3 weeks, Jan VB will not pose good news for EB2I.
That said, this slow down will not have any effect on December VB, which btw must be just waiting to be uploaded.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends approvals on Trackitt are fairly silent. 3 cases approved yesterday 2 of them are EB3 ROW and 1 is EB2 India. So so far 2 EB2-I cases approved this month.

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The demand data is not yet uploaded. Is there any chance of both the visa bulletin and demand data coming out in the same day?

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Nishant, the Dec bulletin should not be impacted by this at all. This is all about how many numbers the agencies are releasing for approvals this month. So far none of the approvals have been for people beyond July 15th who were preadjudicated.

However the sooner it comes the better the outcome will be. The bulletin coming sooner means that they want to create a larger pipeline anyway without bothering about how many cases they get this month. While the bulletin coming later indicates that they are monitoring counts at the lockbox centers. Let’s hope for the best for the bulletin, good luck to you and all.

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Teddy, approvals for the applications with PD beyond July 15th will be delayed right, just they are applying, it takes some time to get the finger prints, verification,... Correct me if I am wrong.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Nishant, the Dec bulletin should not be impacted by this at all. This is all about how many numbers the agencies are releasing for approvals this month. So far none of the approvals have been for people beyond July 15th who were preadjudicated.

However the sooner it comes the better the outcome will be. The bulletin coming sooner means that they want to create a larger pipeline anyway without bothering about how many cases they get this month. While the bulletin coming later indicates that they are monitoring counts at the lockbox centers. Let’s hope for the best for the bulletin, good luck to you and all.

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Now this is indeed a very great observation. I totally agree with you. Especially if they dont release today, then it might be just till tuesday, as on monday they would need to grab stuff dropped off on the weekend.

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Originally Posted by leo07

Yes, this is slightly disheartening. But, again anticipated, right? We know that there are only x number of visas that can be allotted and date-movement is to build pipe line.

If the same trend( slow down of approvals) continues for next 3 weeks, Jan VB will not pose good news for EB2I.
That said, this slow down will not have any effect on December VB, which btw must be just waiting to be uploaded.

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CO has to monitor the incoming applications in NOV to decide the PD in Jan VB but not the approvals, correct me if I am wrong. This movement is mainly for the inventory build up.

What is the USCIS Inventory data? Someone in Trackitt mentioned that its out?

Finally got the approval email today for myself and my wife.

EB2 India Priority date 5/30/07 Texas Service Center.

I contacted Senator's office on 10/4/11. I received a reply from Senator's office on 10/11/11. The reply stated that my category was EB 3 India and priority date was August 17, 2007 and that there was no visa number available currently.

I sent a follow up inquiry via Senator's office on 10/12/11 with I-485 receipts and I-140 approval notice. I received a reply back from Senator's office on 10/19/11 that USCIS has forward my application for further processing based on the information I provided.

Opened a service request 10/24/11. Received a reply on 10/31/11 that the application is being processed and I should hear something back within 60 days.

Sent an email to tsc.ncscfollowup@dhs.gov on 10/31/11 requesting the status of the case. Finally I received the approval email this morning.

I am sure if I had not gone through the process of contacting the Senator's office, my case would still be pending... I think if you have been pre-adjudicated, it is advisable to contact USCIS via Senator's office as soon as your priority date becomes current.

Good luck to everyone and thanks for what all you guys are doing here.

Friends following is the latest snapshot. KD thanks for pointing out.

EB1 - 1
EB3 ROW - 3
EB2 - I - 5
EB2 ROW - 1

Good to see 1 approval post July 15th, Venki there were people upto Aug 15th who were able to apply in the Jul 2007 fiasco, there are 2.5 such cases in the demand data.

Leo too early to make any hard judgments but EB2 ROW atleast for now is looking week. This bulletin the more important thing for CO is to monitor he counts at the lockbox centers. Yes more approvals coming by also help and lesser indicate a lack of commitment in releasing numbers.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends following is the latest snapshot. KD thanks for pointing out.

EB1 - 1
EB3 ROW - 3
EB2 - I - 5
EB2 ROW - 1

Good to see 1 approval post July 15th, Venki there were people upto Aug 15th who were able to apply in the Jul 2007 fiasco, there are 2.5 such cases in the demand data.

Leo too early to make any hard judgments but EB2 ROW atleast for now is looking week. This bulletin the more important thing for CO is to monitor he counts at the lockbox centers. Yes more approvals coming by also help and lesser indicate a lack of commitment in releasing numbers.

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Teddy got it, I see 2 EB2-I approved with PD 07/27/07/ and 07/31/07 in trackitt, that means CO allocated good number of visas to EB2-I for the November Month.

Basically, he will have to look at visa number in hand( A) and applications that a ready to be approved (B) and decide how far he can move the dates. B will not include all incoming applications, just the ones that could consume visa. As 'A' dwindles, his ability(reason) to move dates farther goes down. yes, date-movement is to build pipeline, but also must meet the legal-framework as much as possible to avoid ruckus.

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Originally Posted by venkimakthal

CO has to monitor the incoming applications in NOV to decide the PD in Jan VB but not the approvals, correct me if I am wrong. This movement is mainly for the inventory build up.

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I agree. Good to see that we haven't hit the 'stop' .

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends following is the latest snapshot. KD thanks for pointing out.

EB1 - 1
EB3 ROW - 3
EB2 - I - 5
EB2 ROW - 1

Good to see 1 approval post July 15th, Venki there were people upto Aug 15th who were able to apply in the Jul 2007 fiasco, there are 2.5 such cases in the demand data.

Leo too early to make any hard judgments but EB2 ROW atleast for now is looking week. This bulletin the more important thing for CO is to monitor he counts at the lockbox centers. Yes more approvals coming by also help and lesser indicate a lack of commitment in releasing numbers.

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I think the more VB release is delayed , less likely we will see a big movement

It is discussed here in today's Murthy bulletin.

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Originally Posted by RMS_V13

What is the USCIS Inventory data? Someone in Trackitt mentioned that its out?

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Question:
What does pre-adjudicated mean??

where did you get this theory?

Heartiest Congratulations. All the best for your future plans.

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Originally Posted by wantgcnow

I think the more VB release is delayed , less likely we will see a big movement

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VB has so many other categories and DOS needs demand data from all consulates + USCIS to prepare VB.

EB2 IC is just a piece of VB.

Superdesi, congratulations

Nishanth brother, Mar1 2008 will be the least possible date, don't worry :)

gc_usa,
I just notcied that nov1 and 2 are holidays for some of the us consulates around world. Is it possible that it might effect collection of demand data and hence the eventual visa bulletin.

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

VB has so many other categories and DOS needs demand data from all consulates + USCIS to prepare VB.

EB2 IC is just a piece of VB.

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Today my colleague and his wife GC approved, his PD is July 29, 07, looks like things are on track.

Edit: 2 more approvals added to Teddy summary of approvals :)

I was about to say that :)

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

VB has so many other categories and DOS needs demand data from all consulates + USCIS to prepare VB.

EB2 IC is just a piece of VB.

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superdesi2100, Congratulations to you and your family. All the best!

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Originally Posted by superdesi2100

Finally got the approval email today for myself and my wife.

EB2 India Priority date 5/30/07 Texas Service Center.

I contacted Senator's office on 10/4/11. I received a reply from Senator's office on 10/11/11. The reply stated that my category was EB 3 India and priority date was August 17, 2007 and that there was no visa number available currently.

I sent a follow up inquiry via Senator's office on 10/12/11 with I-485 receipts and I-140 approval notice. I received a reply back from Senator's office on 10/19/11 that USCIS has forward my application for further processing based on the information I provided.

Opened a service request 10/24/11. Received a reply on 10/31/11 that the application is being processed and I should hear something back within 60 days.

Sent an email to tsc.ncscfollowup@dhs.gov on 10/31/11 requesting the status of the case. Finally I received the approval email this morning.

I am sure if I had not gone through the process of contacting the Senator's office, my case would still be pending... I think if you have been pre-adjudicated, it is advisable to contact USCIS via Senator's office as soon as your priority date becomes current.

Good luck to everyone and thanks for what all you guys are doing here.

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Did anyone see a PWMB get approved?

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Originally Posted by venkimakthal

Today my colleague and his wife GC approved, his PD is July 29, 07, looks like things are on track.

Edit: 2 more approvals added to Teddy summary of approvals :)

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by superdesi2100

Finally got the approval email today for myself and my wife.

EB2 India Priority date 5/30/07 Texas Service Center.

I contacted Senator's office on 10/4/11. I received a reply from Senator's office on 10/11/11. The reply stated that my category was EB 3 India and priority date was August 17, 2007 and that there was no visa number available currently.

I sent a follow up inquiry via Senator's office on 10/12/11 with I-485 receipts and I-140 approval notice. I received a reply back from Senator's office on 10/19/11 that USCIS has forward my application for further processing based on the information I provided.

Opened a service request 10/24/11. Received a reply on 10/31/11 that the application is being processed and I should hear something back within 60 days.

Sent an email to tsc.ncscfollowup@dhs.gov on 10/31/11 requesting the status of the case. Finally I received the approval email this morning.

I am sure if I had not gone through the process of contacting the Senator's office, my case would still be pending... I think if you have been pre-adjudicated, it is advisable to contact USCIS via Senator's office as soon as your priority date becomes current.

Good luck to everyone and thanks for what all you guys are doing here.

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Many congratulations to you and your family, enjoy green life. Thanks for sharing the good news with all of us.

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Originally Posted by Karma1979

Question:
What does pre-adjudicated mean??

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485 Approved /denied before visa numbers being available.

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Originally Posted by ggk189

gc_usa,
I just notcied that nov1 and 2 are holidays for some of the us consulates around world. Is it possible that it might effect collection of demand data and hence the eventual visa bulletin.

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can you enlighten what this holidays were for and which country consulate you saw. just to give better idea.

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Originally Posted by leo07

Did anyone see a PWMB get approved?

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Leo since the free flow of approvals is happening now more importantly the preadjudicated after Jul 15th then PWMB also may start by the later part of this month. Really eager to see some of those.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Leo since the free flow of approvals is happening now more importantly the preadjudicated after Jul 15th then PWMB also may start by the later part of this month. Really eager to see some of those.

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If this is happening and continues, and for PWMB also, then sir, it's a sure sign of QSP.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

If this is happening and continues, and for PWMB also, then sir, it's a sure sign of QSP.

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I don't know if we should exactly call it quarterly spillover because it’s happening well before the quarter end but he seems to be moving by some monthly rule of allocation and so far the supply is sufficient to meet demand. There is also a possibility that the I140 denial rate is higher than what we have been used to.

I can see approvals for PDs 07/27/2007, 07/31/2007 , what is this actually denote?

I really dont understand. These PDs are current from November 01 2011, are they not ?

Where are these Visa numbers coming from ?

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

I don't know if we should exactly call it quarterly spillover because it’s happening well before the quarter end but he seems to be moving by some monthly rule of allocation and so far the supply is sufficient to meet demand. There is also a possibility that the I140 denial rate is higher than what we have been used to.

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Teddy as per Q, the QSP can be applied anytime during the quarter, at the end of the quarter (for first three), no category should exceed 27% of total allocation possible. I am not sure about law verbiage behind it, just citing from Q's posts. Maybe Q should re-affirm this statement.

K, these must be pre-adjudicated apps.

Very lucky people who could at the last minute get their apps in the july 2007 fiasco. Even in period July 15th 2007 to August 17th 2007, there are people who made it into the july 2007 fiasco.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

I can see approvals for PDs 07/27/2007, 07/31/2007 , what is this actually denote?

I really dont understand. These PDs are current from November 01 2011, are they not ?

Where are these Visa numbers coming from ?

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Nishant , Is it not it would exceed 2800 in the first quarter itself?
Actually total numbers from apr 15 to july 15 itself is over the quota , am I correct?

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Nishant , Is it not it would exceed 2800 in the first quarter itself?
Actually total numbers from apr 15 to july 15 itself is over the quota , am I correct?

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Yeah, that's what Teddy is also pointing out. So for sure, at least I feel, that we are being given some sort of SO, what kind don't know.

It 2:14 PM EST and still no Dec VB.. I think we need to wait till monday or tuesday :-(

Just curious... are there any left overs from FB (family based)?

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Yeah, that's what Teddy is also pointing out. So for sure, at least I feel, that we are being given some sort of SO, what kind don't know.

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As per wikipedia Nov1 is All Saints day and Nov2 is All souls Day
The former is holiday on websites of Belgium,Phillipines,Ghana to name a few and I saw the later is for Brazil. Those are regarded as local holidays in the respective countries.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

can you enlighten what this holidays were for and which country consulate you saw. just to give better idea.

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Nope - we are at 140K EB Visas this year.

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Originally Posted by familyguy

Just curious... are there any left overs from FB (family based)?

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Nov 1 and Nov 2 are Christian holidays ...which is why Halloween is Oct 31st. Spirits are out on Halloween... pray for them on Nov 1 and 2.

... love the history.