EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Due to new I-485 from 2007 and 2008, I came up with the 80% approval rate. I was looking at the pattern of visa dates movement in 2008, after the July 2007 fiasco. The controller kind of did similar to what he is doing now. I am also thinking multistep a halt between 2005/2006. A halt around July/August 2007 and finally into 2008. Not sure whether it will be two step or three step.

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Matt,

I agree with you that a first move to a Cut Off Date of not later than about 01AUG07 is quite likely for several reasons.

That would only leave 2 months for any later new I-485 to be approved before dates likely retrogress in October 2013, since they could not be submitted until August at the earliest.

I would say that (bordering on) zero are likely to be approved within 60 days of submitting an I-485, perhaps rising to 55% tops if they had 90 days to be adjudicated. That's assuming dates only move beyond July 2007 in August/July and for those received on the first day the VB becomes effective. Those figures are based on approval times last year for the period when new I-485 had to be submitted.

For EB2-ROW cases this FY the respective % approval times within 60 and 90 days are 11% & 27% respectively (on a much smaller sample size).


Also, something that may be a factor and unlike previous years, a large number of EB3-ROW-M-C cases are going to be ready to adjudicate in Q4. Their dates need to move well beyond July 2007 in the May VB at the latest, which will put most approvals in Q4 and in competition for adjudication resources.

We can to a certain degree rule off any new EB2I 485 applications getting through this fiscal.

I think given what we discussed above the first stoppage before Aug,2007, all interfilings have an extra month than any adjudicated applications between Aug 2007 and March 2008. So majority of the portings will get through, dependent on the speed of the adjudicator.

I completely agree with you. I think USICS is preparing for EB3-ROW-M-C cases, for me the updated processing times is an early indicator. Does it also mean a spillover to EB3I, only time will prove!!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Matt,

I agree with you that a first move to a Cut Off Date of not later than about 01AUG07 is quite likely for several reasons.

That would only leave 2 months for any later new I-485 to be approved before dates likely retrogress in October 2013, since they could not be submitted until August at the earliest.

I would say that (bordering on) zero are likely to be approved within 60 days of submitting an I-485, perhaps rising to 55% tops if they had 90 days to be adjudicated. That's assuming dates only move beyond July 2007 in August/July and for those received on the first day the VB becomes effective. Those figures are based on approval times last year for the period when new I-485 had to be submitted.

For EB2-ROW cases this FY the respective % approval times within 60 and 90 days are 11% & 27% respectively (on a much smaller sample size).


Also, something that may be a factor and unlike previous years, a large number of EB3-ROW-M-C cases are going to be ready to adjudicate in Q4. Their dates need to move well beyond July 2007 in the May VB at the latest, which will put most approvals in Q4 and in competition for adjudication resources.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

We can to a certain degree rule off any new EB2I 485 applications getting through this fiscal.

I think given what we discussed above the first stoppage before Aug,2007, all interfilings have an extra month than any adjudicated applications between Aug 2007 and March 2008. So majority of the portings will get through, dependent on the speed of the adjudicator.

I completely agree with you. I think USICS is preparing for EB3-ROW-M-C cases, for me the updated processing times is an early indicator. Does it also mean a spillover to EB3I, only time will prove!!

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Matt,

I agree with you.

I haven't given much thought to where the dates might initially move to, but these are my very early thoughts.

All the spillover won't be released in a single month. I think CO has to give some thought to monthly allocations, other people competing for resources and understanding the number of porting applications invisible to him.

CO might front load the split into the first 2 months and leave the third month to balance supply vs demand.

Using a hypothetical example, if he expected 14k visas to be available to EB2-I in Q4, then the split could be something like 6:6:2 The number in the first 2 months would be the minimum (or just below) the number he felt would be available.

There are currently 2k cases before 2007 in the DD. There might be as many as 4k porters before 2007 waiting for their PD to become Current to complete the interfiling process.

In this hypothetical example, with 6k available in July, the Cut Off Date would theoretically move to 01JAN07.

Does that logic sound sensible?

We would certainly know if there is Fall Across to EB3-I in the September VB. In order to benefit, the Cut Off Date would have to be advanced significantly.

Logically I am also in the same thought line, splitting between two months will not benefit the visibility much. just as the demand start showing up, it is time to release the next month bulletin. I also think a split between three months is where we are heading too.

A weird thought: Will the controller think of pushing the porting demand after 2004 to the next fiscal, where by building the demand for next fiscal? One other possible benefit, it may help State Dept. in pushing USICS to develop an effective process for tracking porting. I don't think he will, just a thought.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Matt,

I agree with you.

I haven't given much thought to where the dates might initially move to, but these are my very early thoughts.

All the spillover won't be released in a single month. I think CO has to give some thought to monthly allocations, other people competing for resources and understanding the number of porting applications invisible to him.

CO might front load the split into the first 2 months and leave the third month to balance supply vs demand.

Using a hypothetical example, if he expected 14k visas to be available to EB2-I in Q4, then the split could be something like 6:6:2 The number in the first 2 months would be the minimum (or just below) the number he felt would be available.

There are currently 2k cases before 2007 in the DD. There might be as many as 4k porters before 2007 waiting for their PD to become Current to complete the interfiling process.

In this hypothetical example, with 6k available in July, the Cut Off Date would theoretically move to 01JAN07.

Does that logic sound sensible?

We would certainly know if there is Fall Across to EB3-I in the September VB. In order to benefit, the Cut Off Date would have to be advanced significantly.

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Thoughts inline.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Logically I am also in the same thought line, splitting between two months will not benefit the visibility much. just as the demand start showing up, it is time to release the next month bulletin.

That's why I thought CO might only be able to set the Cut Off Date in August based on the minimum number of visas he thought would be available to EB2-I.

By the time he sets the September VB in early August, he would have one month's visibility of porting numbers and a further month's worth of visibility on EB2-WW demand. That would let him set a better September Cut Off Date.

I also think a split between three months is where we are heading too.

A weird thought: Will the controller think of pushing the porting demand after 2004 to the next fiscal, where by building the demand for next fiscal? One other possible benefit, it may help State Dept. in pushing USICS to develop an effective process for tracking porting. I don't think he will, just a thought.

I'm not sure I can see a mechanism that would achieve that, while still allowing non porting EB2 to be approved.

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Hey All Gurus -

My priority Date is 14/5/08 w/EAD/AP- what do you think is the possibility of getting greended in FY2013? Also if assuming PD hits Apr'08 in Sept 13 VB - what do you think is the possibility after the retrogression to come back to Mid 2008 in Q4 FY 2014?

thanks

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Thoughts inline.

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Hi Gurus
I have a question. My priority date is 02/01/2010 EB2I. I have received EAD/AP earlier last year as well got them renewed recently. My work place (same employer who filed my GC) allows remote work and even our HR is fine with me working from different location. I am planning to move out of state (of the current state where Labor, 140 as wel as 485 were filed). What are the implications of this in the GC process ? What should I ask my employer to do so as to facilitate me to move to a different state.

Thanks for your help.

incredible welcome to forum. since its already been more than 180 days since filing 485 and I assume your 140 is approved too - you are already eligible with AC21. So if for some reason USCIS hypothetically objects your moving to another state (even if with same company) you are free to invoke AC21 and that's why your company is ok with you moving to another state.

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Originally Posted by incredible

Hi Gurus
I have a question. My priority date is 02/01/2010 EB2I. I have received EAD/AP earlier last year as well got them renewed recently. My work place (same employer who filed my GC) allows remote work and even our HR is fine with me working from different location. I am planning to move out of state (of the current state where Labor, 140 as wel as 485 were filed). What are the implications of this in the GC process ? What should I ask my employer to do so as to facilitate me to move to a different state.

Thanks for your help.

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Gurus,

My case is pretty messed up . Originally applied for PERM in May 2008. After 2 audits, 1 BALCA reversal decision, 1 DOL reject I am currently in the 2nd BALCA appeal. I have been trying to track my BALCA appeal on the OLJ website, so I know a decision has not been made. Is there a way to guess the timeframe BALCA takes for an appeal? I am not getting a whole lot of information from my lawyers.

Thanks!

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Originally Posted by garihc27

Gurus,

My case is pretty messed up . Originally applied for PERM in May 2008. After 2 audits, 1 BALCA reversal decision, 1 DOL reject I am currently in the 2nd BALCA appeal. I have been trying to track my BALCA appeal on the OLJ website, so I know a decision has not been made. Is there a way to guess the timeframe BALCA takes for an appeal? I am not getting a whole lot of information from my lawyers.

Thanks!

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Google helps
http://www.oalj.dol.gov/LIBINA.HTM

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Google helps
http://www.oalj.dol.gov/LIBINA.HTM

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Thanks! That is the website I have been following to see if a decision has been made or not. There is no info on the timeframe to make the decision as far as I can tell.

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Originally Posted by garihc27

Gurus,

My case is pretty messed up . Originally applied for PERM in May 2008. After 2 audits, 1 BALCA reversal decision, 1 DOL reject I am currently in the 2nd BALCA appeal. I have been trying to track my BALCA appeal on the OLJ website, so I know a decision has not been made. Is there a way to guess the timeframe BALCA takes for an appeal? I am not getting a whole lot of information from my lawyers.

Thanks!

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GariHC27,

If you know the docket number, you can call the clerk of the Judge handling your case (his/her name would be on the BALCA appeal copy which you would have received) and ask him/her nicely about the timeframe. They will typically give you an estimate based on the current caseload. I have done it couple of times successfully when my appeal was pending.

Having been through the process, I feel for you and wish you the very best. I don't know your particular case but in my case, I knew that the appeal was going to be denied and it was only a time-buying strategy to find alternate options.

Good Luck!

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Originally Posted by garihc27

Thanks! That is the website I have been following to see if a decision has been made or not. There is no info on the timeframe to make the decision as far as I can tell.

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Have you tried calling their hotline and the USCIS hotlines?

At this point nobody has ruled out May 2008 priority date for this fiscal. Now for your second question about dates coming back to Mid 2008 next fiscal. We have to assume the porting level will stay the same for next fiscal. So it will be a slow movement next fiscal also. One can conclude only an the end of this fiscal based upon how far the existing demand got cleared.

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Originally Posted by SeekingGC2013

Hey All Gurus -

My priority Date is 14/5/08 w/EAD/AP- what do you think is the possibility of getting greended in FY2013? Also if assuming PD hits Apr'08 in Sept 13 VB - what do you think is the possibility after the retrogression to come back to Mid 2008 in Q4 FY 2014?

thanks

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Thanks Spec for posting the link. I am very interested in demographics of US immigration - and this report always contains great information.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

A slight hint for the reason FB visas went unused in FY2012 is contained in the DHS U.S. Legal Permanent Residents: 2012 publication.



I'm not sure that is the entire reason.

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I am not sure if it is already updated on this thread but the Labor processing dates have been updated on the http://icert.doleta.gov/

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Originally Posted by gtyagi

I am not sure if it is already updated on this thread but the Labor processing dates have been updated on the http://icert.doleta.gov/

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gtyagi,

Thank you.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

At the end of
FY2010 it was 1,125
FY2011 - 3,347
FY2012 - 5,018
FY2013 - 6,075 in the last figures published

Hi Spec,

Where did you find the above EB5 backlog data?

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Sorry, I missed the question previously.

The data can be found in the USCIS Dashboard under I-526. Then download the raw data.

The number is the sum of All Other Pending & Awaiting customer action.

My data goes back further than is now available.

Thanks for getting back to it..

Have a look at the below website, they have published EB-5 backlog data.
I was looking into verifying for myself.

http://eb5-visa.net/blog/

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Sorry, I missed the question previously.

The data can be found in the USCIS Dashboard under I-526. Then download the raw data.

My data goes back further than is now available.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Thanks for getting back to it..

Have a look at the below website, they have published EB-5 backlog data.
I was looking into verifying for myself.

http://eb5-visa.net/blog/

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Thanks.

I had the lucidtext.com figures already.

I can't work out how the person has arrived at the Backlog as a % of Adjudicated figures. They do not match up to the published figures.

I can't go all the way back to FY2005 but I do have the Backlog at the end of FY2009 onwards.

The % on that basis is

FY2009 - 35% compared to 16% in article
FY2010 - 73% compared to 43% in article
FY2011 - 173% compared to 131% in article
FY2012 - 108% compared to 85% in article

I actually think the backlog raw number is more important.

The current 6,075 I-526 cases pending represents 14,094 EB5 approvals (142% of normal quota) at the current 80% approval rate for I-526 and the 2.9 immigrants per approved I-526.

Historically, using the same assumptions (actually, in some years approval % have been higher), the corresponding number of EB5 approvals in the backlog at the end of the FY has been

FY2009 - 1,192 = 12% of normal quota
FY2010 - 2,610 = 26% of normal quota
FY2011 - 7,765 = 78% of normal quota
FY2012 - 11,642 = 117% of normal quota

At the point the backlog stops growing (or worse starts to decrease), there is a potential explosion in EB5 approvals. Only the current very slow adjudication process by USCIS is keeping the numbers in check.

USICS statistics is the final word. I have put my comments in between the lines. For my calculation purposes I am in full agreement with you on EB5. Somewhere in July timeframe is USICS shifting their processing of eB5 from CA to Washington?.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Thanks.

I had the lucidtext.com figures already.

I can't work out how the person has arrived at the Backlog as a % of Adjudicated figures. They do not match up to the published figures.
Agree with you that it is not matching published figures. I think his logic is previous years back log + receipts - adjudicated= current year backlog. I think he is working it back from 2006. Got curious seeing the number.

I can't go all the way back to FY2005 but I do have the Backlog at the end of FY2009 onwards.

The % on that basis is

FY2009 - 35% compared to 16% in article
FY2010 - 73% compared to 43% in article
FY2011 - 173% compared to 131% in article
FY2012 - 108% compared to 85% in article


I actually think the backlog raw number is more important.
Agree with you "][/COLOR]


The current 6,075 I-526 cases pending represents 14,094 EB5 approvals (142% of normal quota) at the current 80% approval rate for I-526 and the 2.9 immigrants per approved I-526.

Historically, using the same assumptions (actually, in some years approval % have been higher), the corresponding number of EB5 approvals in the backlog at the end of the FY has been

FY2009 - 1,192 = 12% of normal quota
FY2010 - 2,610 = 26% of normal quota
FY2011 - 7,765 = 78% of normal quota
FY2012 - 11,642 = 117% of normal quota

At the point the backlog stops growing (or worse starts to decrease), there is a potential explosion in EB5 approvals. Only the current very slow adjudication process by USCIS is keeping the numbers in check.

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Gurus I have quick question regarding AC21. My priority date is May'08 - EB2I. If I change my Job in Jun'13 and If my date is current in Aug'13. Will I be able to get my GC after AC21? or it's bad decision to move at this time frame?

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Originally Posted by eb20508

Gurus I have quick question regarding AC21. My priority date is May'08 - EB2I. If I change my Job in Jun'13 and If my date is current in Aug'13. Will I be able to get my GC after AC21? or it's bad decision to move at this time frame?

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Shouldnt be an issue. Id have your lawyer draft the letter to the USCIS (there is no AC21 form) and get an EVL from the new company and send those to the USCIS in the July timeframe. If you can send a paystub, thats good too.

Hey,
I was going through previous years demand data information and now I have 2 points/questions. Hopefully gurus can shed some light:

1- Can we assume porting numbers by looking at demand data of previous 2 FY 2011,2012? cumulative reduction is 4994 (11800 - 6806) till Jan 1 2007 and cannot be higher. So average porting in last 2 FY is 2500 till Jan 1 2007. Is this safe assumption.

EB3 Demand data till Jan 1 2007
Sep 2010-----56050
Sep 2011-----51100
Sep 2012-----44250
total reduction - 11800

EB3 visa issued in fiscal year
2012----2804
2011----4002
Total EB3 issued--6806


2- The demand data reduction for EB3 from Jun 12 to April 13 is 4850. And total EB3 visa issued will be 234*11 months= 2574 visas. That means around (4850-2574=2276) 2276 may have ported to EB2 in 11 months. Some of them already have GC issued in past 6 months as date is stuck at Sep 2004 (5*234=1170).
Even though USCIS is saying demand data shows only preadjudicated cases. Then where does 1106 demand reduction go. They all cannot be pre Sep 2004.

Jun 2012 45250
Oct 2012 43900
Apr 2013 40400

4850 -- Total reduction
2574 --EB3 visa issued
1170 -- EB2 ported visa issued in 5 months
1106 -- ??????????

I hope you guys can provide some insight on these.

During the past few months I have analyzed the demand data as well as USICS inventory in multiple ways. Some movements in data is normally not possible when priority date is not current. So the data that we have is not fully accurate.
Now let me try to answer your question:-
The total reduction in demand is spread between different years. So it is certain, that all is not before 2004. That points to couple of possibilities.
a) Applications filed when priority dates are current is slowly showing up
b) Data clean up is happening
c) Some percentage of porting is getting reflected even when priority dates are not current

it can be any of the three or also various combination of the three.

Let me try to address the basic question you have, which is porting. As our understanding of data is limited to various interpretations, it is extremely difficult to quantify it. But from my analysis with the data we have, there is ATLEAST 40% increase in porting on a monthly basis and we have 16 months of demand in this fiscal. So now the question is what is the max possible for porting. Honestly I don't have a clear cut answer. if you browse couple of pages in this thread you can see Spec helping me out in figuring out one way of looking into the scenario.

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

Hey,
I was going through previous years demand data information and now I have 2 points/questions. Hopefully gurus can shed some light:

1- Can we assume porting numbers by looking at demand data of previous 2 FY 2011,2012? cumulative reduction is 4994 (11800 - 6806) till Jan 1 2007 and cannot be higher. So average porting in last 2 FY is 2500 till Jan 1 2007. Is this safe assumption.

EB3 Demand data till Jan 1 2007
Sep 2010-----56050
Sep 2011-----51100
Sep 2012-----44250
total reduction - 11800

EB3 visa issued in fiscal year
2012----2804
2011----4002
Total EB3 issued--6806


2- The demand data reduction for EB3 from Jun 12 to April 13 is 4850. And total EB3 visa issued will be 234*11 months= 2574 visas. That means around (4850-2574=2276) 2276 may have ported to EB2 in 11 months. Some of them already have GC issued in past 6 months as date is stuck at Sep 2004 (5*234=1170).
Even though USCIS is saying demand data shows only preadjudicated cases. Then where does 1106 demand reduction go. They all cannot be pre Sep 2004.

Jun 2012 45250
Oct 2012 43900
Apr 2013 40400

4850 -- Total reduction
2574 --EB3 visa issued
1170 -- EB2 ported visa issued in 5 months
1106 -- ??????????

I hope you guys can provide some insight on these.

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