EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by ravisekhar

As a data point for the issue raised by usernameone7. Here are my GC details hope it will be usefull . My priority date is Jan 10th 2008 and ETA Case Number is A-07354-xxxxx.

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ravisekhar,
Is JAN 10, 2008 is the PD on your approved i-140? Based on the PERM case # you have provided it should be DEC 20, 2007!

Even mine does not match the calculation. My priority date is Nov 2nd 2009 and Case# is A-09285-. Somehow the difference is 21 days and is same as ravisekhar

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Originally Posted by tonyromo

Even mine does not match the calculation. My priority date is Nov 2nd 2009 and Case# is A-09285-. Somehow the difference is 21 days and is same as ravisekhar

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Interesting!!
Looks like 21 is a factor! any other?

Thanks for your inputs on the PDs vs. case number - very interesting.

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Originally Posted by gcseeker

Gaurav

I am in a similar situation with PD EB2I Nov 2007 and faced with a similar situation except do not have an expiring contract.If I may suggest something go ahead and accept the offer you have currently.I too strongly beleive just like Veni suggested USCIS will pull back the numbers after July 2007 is breached. You can take the pay hike , work at a different place , learn something new and shift to a new employer in 2013 and start your gc process .By that time your date should be definetly definetly current and it will happen much quicker because you can get things done concurrently. Also your work exp would have improved along the way.

That way you will have not compromised your career growth due to the gc decision.

If you do decide not to change the downside will be you will be stuck with the same job without an hike and also no guarantee of an gc.You will not be able to accept promotions at the same job and (god forbid ) if there is an layoff at your place ...anyhow you will be forced to restart the process all over again.Even if you barely manage to file the 485 in Sep 2012 you will have to hang around for six more months effectively stagnating your career well into 2013.

Again it is a very personal decision.Just looking at the numbers you calculated the best case estimate for Nov 2007 seems to be sep 2012 assuming the 30K spillover...if things change it will be even worse....you have to hold the current job then till god knows 2014 ?.....

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Thanks gcseeker. I will send you a personal message so that I don't distract this forum from the main topic.

I don't know if you guys paid any attention when your PERM was prepared/filed. I did follow up on each step. There is a 30 day quite period after the all the recruitment efforts. Sometime during this period the attorney goes to the online PERM efile website and fills out your application. The day your application is created is reflected in your case number. So case created on Dec 20th of 2007 gets the number A-07354-xxxxx. When 30 day quite period is over, the attorney simply hits the submit button. That day is your PD. Hence the PD is Jan 10th 2008 which was when the attorney hit the submit button.

friends .. clearly the information is at least half wrong now. we will see if at least the "signficant" piece of information comes true.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

friends .. clearly the information is at least half wrong now. we will see if at least the "signficant" piece of information comes true.

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'Significant' is the most important part of that news, not the time line.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

I don't know if you guys paid any attention when your PERM was prepared/filed. I did follow up on each step. There is a 30 day quite period after the all the recruitment efforts. Sometime during this period the attorney goes to the online PERM efile website and fills out your application. The day your application is created is reflected in your case number. So case created on Dec 20th of 2007 gets the number A-07354-xxxxx. When 30 day quite period is over, the attorney simply hits the submit button. That day is your PD. Hence the PD is Jan 10th 2008 which was when the attorney hit the submit button.

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Thanks kd, that is great information - you clearly understand the system very well indeed.

It perfectly explains the discrepancy.

I don't know what other people think, but it probably doesn't significantly alter the analysis done to date. It shifts the numbers a little later than perhaps we thought, but only potentially from one month to the next. Much of the difference will just cancel out anyway.

I did analyze the FY2006 data, which does have a Received field, although some of the results were a bit strange. I have become quite used to imperfect data from DOL.

For Certified cases, it appeared that about a third of dates match exactly. The average difference was 15 days and the median difference was 4 days. Those figures appear to be in line with kd's explanation.

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

'Significant' is the most important part of that news, not the time line.

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Agree.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Thanks kd, that is great information - you clearly understand the system very well indeed.

It perfectly explains the discrepancy.

I don't know what other people think, but it probably doesn't significantly alter the analysis done to date. It shifts the numbers a little later than perhaps we thought, but only potentially from one month to the next. Much of the difference will just cancel out anyway.

I did analyze the FY2006 data, which does have a Received field, although some of the results were a bit strange. I have become quite used to imperfect data from DOL.

For Certified cases, it appeared that about a third of dates match exactly. The average difference was 15 days and the median difference was 4 days. Those figures appear to be in line with kd's explanation.

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Agree. Glad we now know definitively that its CY.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

friends .. clearly the information is at least half wrong now. we will see if at least the "signficant" piece of information comes true.

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--> As someone pointed out, its not when the bulletin is out, but the message it carries. If that 'significant' bit turns out to be a dud, then we can be more careful w.r.t the sources. Nevertheless, it was a nice dream last night :) Thanks.

Mumbai visa bulletin is updated..
http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
Eb2 15 October 2006
Eb3 22 April 2002

I guess the movement is still considered significant and at this rate, we should definately be in 2007 in July/August bulletin.

June 2011 VB out, updated on Mumbai consulate website
EB2I - 15OCT2006 (15 weeks)
EB3I - 22APR2002 ( 1 week)

Link...
http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

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Originally Posted by hsinghjkaur

I guess the movement is still considered significant and at this rate, we should definately be in 2007 in July/August bulletin.

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Let's see if they throw any prediction in the official VB, DOS/USCIS only need about 5K more to move EB2I&C to 01JAN2007

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

friends .. clearly the information is at least half wrong now. we will see if at least the "signficant" piece of information comes true.

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Q,
You are not wrong,
1. VISA Bulletin is out today ( at least on Mumbai Consulate website)
2. 15 weeks of EB2I forward movement (about 6k VISAS) is indeed significant for USCIS.

Looks like almost 10.0k out of 12.0k EB1 spillover from first 6 months is absorbed by EB2I.

My be DOS/USCIS will update the official Visa Bulletin saying that the porting is not as high as they expected !!!

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Originally Posted by srinivasj

Mumbai visa bulletin is updated..
http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
Eb2 15 October 2006
Eb3 22 April 2002

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ooh you beat me :) while i was counting the number of weeks advanced!

Alright friends .... so finally the suspense ends (almost). It seems that between last month and this they only moved by the 12K EB1 visas they knew they were going to have.

So between 12K from EB1 and 6K of its own, EB2IC is moving to Oct 2006 AND absorbing porting + PWMBs until 2006-OCT.

Now if we assume
a) EB1 doesn't have any more by itself (that would be somewhat conservative ... but its good to be conservative)
b) EB2 ROW yields 8K (neither aggressive nor conservative)
c) EB5 yields 8K (neither aggressive nor conservative)

then, that means we are looking at Mar/Apr 2007. If somehow EB1 adds more to it then that would be bonus. Given that there are still 3 more bulletins to go (july,aug,sep) I think there is quite a bit of room to go.

Finally --- to my source -- thanks my friend. There was both movement and the bulletin is out (almost) today as you said it would. I am glad your date is current. All the best!

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Alright friends .... so finally the suspense ends (almost). It seems that between last month and this they only moved by the 12K EB1 visas they knew they were going to have.

So between 12K from EB1 and 6K of its own, EB2IC is moving to Oct 2006 AND absorbing porting + PWMBs until 2006-OCT.

Now if we assume
a) EB1 doesn't have any more by itself (that would be somewhat conservative ... but its good to be conservative)
b) EB2 ROW yields 8K (neither aggressive nor conservative)
c) EB5 yields 8K (neither aggressive nor conservative)

then, that means we are looking at Mar/Apr 2007. If somehow EB1 adds more to it then that would be bonus. Given that there are still 3 more bulletins to go (july,aug,sep) I think there is quite a bit of room to go.

Finally --- to my source -- thanks my friend. There was both movement and the bulletin is out (almost) today as you said it would. I am glad your date is current. All the best!

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Q,
Good! Very good.
Based on 01-05-2011 inventory EB2I&C known demand from 15OCT2006 to 01AUG2007 is about 20.0K, I am very positive EB1 will yield some more for final quarter! Let's see what actual VB has to say!

Q,
if they knew only 12k would be available they could have waited for the last quarter to move the dates right..?

Thanks Q for the information. These couple of months are turning to be harder than the previous 5 years wait.

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Originally Posted by srinivasj

Q,
if they knew only 12k would be available they could have waited for the last quarter to move the dates right..?

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srini, my hunch is you are right. But once bitten twice shy is what my condition is after last years PERM cleanup which made me miss my prediction. So lets cross the fingers.

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Originally Posted by hsinghjkaur

Thanks Q for the information. These couple of months are turning to be harder than the previous 5 years wait.

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I can perfectly understand. I am in the same boat like you and everybody else here. The career getting hurt left and right. Underpaid and asked to do super-impossible tasks. Hopefully the misery will end this year.

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
Based on 01-05-2011 inventory EB2I&C known demand from 15OCT2006 to 01AUG2007 is about 20.0K, I am very positive EB1 will yield some more for final quarter! Let's see what actual VB has to say!

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veni I think you look at the demand as seen by DoS. But the true demand is 24K of which 20K is visible to DoS because everything is complete on those 20K. The rest 4K have some issues and so they are not in DoS pipeline.

I assume that EB2-C will also have a PD of Oct'15 as both EB2-I and EB2-C will move together when the spillover visas are allocated. I am now hopeful that the dates will move well into 2007; it might not be July - Aug'07 but I am hoping it will at least move up to March/April'07 (as Q pointed out). There are 3 more bulletins and in the last year there was forward movement during each of the last 3 bulletins. I think from now on both EB2-I and EB2-C will be consuming the spillover visas but that has already been considered in all the detailed calculations done in this forum.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

srini, my hunch is you are right. But once bitten twice shy is what my condition is after last years PERM cleanup which made me miss my prediction. So lets cross the fingers.


I can perfectly understand. I am in the same boat like you and everybody else here. The career getting hurt left and right. Underpaid and asked to do super-impossible tasks. Hopefully the misery will end this year.


veni I think you look at the demand as seen by DoS. But the true demand is 24K of which 20K is visible to DoS because everything is complete on those 20K. The rest 4K have some issues and so they are not in DoS pipeline.

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Q,
Are you referring to USCIS EB-i485 inventory or DOS demand data , either way i am not getting 24k known demand from 15OCT2006 to 01AUG2007?

Veni

I was referring to 485 inventory. But now I realized the numbers I use have 2.5K in them for PWMB for Oct-06-Aug-07.

The 20K you use I imagine is the DoS demand. Is that right?

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
Are you referring to USCIS EB-i485 inventory or DOS demand data , either way i am not getting 24k known demand from 15OCT2006 to 01AUG2007?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni

I was referring to 485 inventory. But now I realized the numbers I use have 2.5K in them for PWMB for Oct-06-Aug-07.

The 20K you use I imagine is the DoS demand. Is that right?

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Q,
Either way, demand data less EB2I&C movement in JUNE 2011 VB (approx 8K), or from EB-i485 inventory(half of OCT2006 till 01AUG2007) i am getting the same number about 20.0K
No PWMB or porting numbers though!

I think there is a fairly accurate conservative estimate on where the EB2I PD will be by September 2011. Can anyone speculative what can be the aggressive estimate ? Please assume that the PD forward movement will result in exact targeted number use and hence there will be no retrogression. Thanks

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Originally Posted by srinivasj

Mumbai visa bulletin is updated..
http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
Eb2 15 October 2006
Eb3 22 April 2002

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Great work Srinivasj. Appreciate for bringing out...

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Alright friends .... so finally the suspense ends (almost). It seems that between last month and this they only moved by the 12K EB1 visas they knew they were going to have.

So between 12K from EB1 and 6K of its own, EB2IC is moving to Oct 2006 AND absorbing porting + PWMBs until 2006-OCT.

Now if we assume
a) EB1 doesn't have any more by itself (that would be somewhat conservative ... but its good to be conservative)
b) EB2 ROW yields 8K (neither aggressive nor conservative)
c) EB5 yields 8K (neither aggressive nor conservative)

then, that means we are looking at Mar/Apr 2007. If somehow EB1 adds more to it then that would be bonus. Given that there are still 3 more bulletins to go (july,aug,sep) I think there is quite a bit of room to go.

Finally --- to my source -- thanks my friend. There was both movement and the bulletin is out (almost) today as you said it would. I am glad your date is current. All the best!

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Q,

Your estimations are in a way correct.

DoS had allocated 3K in May 2011 and another 9K in June 2011 VB.

I estimate that there is another 4K expected from EB1, EB2 ROW (except M&P) 5.8K and EB5 another 5.8K. Total estimate is 15.6K. With porting, I guess the dates would reach March 2007. I keep my fingers crossed.

Finally, thanks to you for this wonderful blog site.

Awesome..... I learnt 2 things.... When CIS thinks of significant movement then it is 3.5 months.... I am very sure it stands true when they say huge porting cases( I think it is within our estimate of 3-6K)

Veni,Q,Spec,TD,gcwait and others....

There was a 20% or less chance initially that PD moves > July 07 from previous calculations.... With this new data, what do you guys think.... Did the % go up from here?? If 12K from EB1 is already used up till July bulletin let's say.... We still have 8(Eb2)+6(eb5)+1.6(eb2i/c)+8(eb1)= 23k+ still waiting for last quarter....

I am hoping that the PD will go till 2007 dec and then retrogress back .... This get 2 things done .... 1. Testing old and new data for CIS and 2. Not wasting numbers

Please comment .....

I think the good news is ...12K EB1 is seen in action quite early on. The bad news could be there won't be a jerky movement and that they used EB1 12K early on to avoid such a jerky movement later.

If there isn't going to be a jerky movement later then the dates needs to be behind Jul-07 by at least a year's margin i.e. 6K.

So realistically the most optimist scenario becomes May 07.

As you can imagine my guess is as good or bad as anybody's. But this is what I can make of it today (assuming MUMBAI HASN'T FATFINGERED AGAIN!).

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Originally Posted by soggadu

Awesome..... I learnt 2 things.... When CIS thinks of significant movement then it is 3.5 months.... I am very sure it stands true when they say huge porting cases( I think it is within our estimate of 3-6K)

Veni,Q,Spec,TD,gcwait and others....

There was a 20% or less chance initially that PD moves > July 07 from previous calculations.... With this new data, what do you guys think.... Did the % go up from here?? If 12K from EB1 is already used up till July bulletin let's say.... We still have 8(Eb2)+6(eb5)+1.6(eb2i/c)+8(eb1)= 23k+ still waiting for last quarter....

I am hoping that the PD will go till 2007 dec and then retrogress back .... This get 2 things done .... 1. Testing old and new data for CIS and 2. Not wasting numbers

Please comment .....

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I think that EB2-C must now share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-I in June.

The movement to Oct 15 2006 means they will exceed the base 2,803 allocation.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

Awesome..... I learnt 2 things.... When CIS thinks of significant movement then it is 3.5 months.... I am very sure it stands true when they say huge porting cases( I think it is within our estimate of 3-6K)

Veni,Q,Spec,TD,gcwait and others....

There was a 20% or less chance initially that PD moves > July 07 from previous calculations.... With this new data, what do you guys think.... Did the % go up from here?? If 12K from EB1 is already used up till July bulletin let's say.... We still have 8(Eb2)+6(eb5)+1.6(eb2i/c)+8(eb1)= 23k+ still waiting for last quarter....

I am hoping that the PD will go till 2007 dec and then retrogress back .... This get 2 things done .... 1. Testing old and new data for CIS and 2. Not wasting numbers

Please comment .....

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soggadu,
We have to wait for the actual VB to see if DOS/USCIS throw any insight, all in all i would stick with the 32k conservative estimate from Q, so far looks to me that USCIS only applied 12k EB1 fall-down from the first two quarters. I believe USCIS will have another 20K for the final quarter towards EB2I&C backlog.

Let's forget the calculates for a moment. CO said that 'a minumum' of 12k EB1 unused visas will fall down. They are extremely conservative, so that number will probably be much greater than 12k. The fact they have used the 12k already for fall down, despite 4 months left in the fiscal year (and 3 more visa bulletins), I'm v confident there has to be much more unused visas from EB1. In short, would think 4-8k more visas from EB1 will fall down.

Visa bulletin predicted (in last bulletin) 1-3 week movement for EB2 India, we got 15. Again hows to highlight there conservative nature and possible upside to all their statements. Appx 20k is reqd to clear July 07 from here. Assume 8k from EB1 + 8k from EB2 ROW + 8k from EB5 and we should get there. These numbers aren't conservative but not overly agressive too.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

friends .. clearly the information is at least half wrong now. we will see if at least the "signficant" piece of information comes true.

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Well 3.5 months is pretty good forward 'strut'. Therefore, this year there is been a movement of 5.5 months in 5 months and 12 days [142 days (2006) in 132 days (2011)]. I do feel that this year they will move the cutoff by a total of a year and a half at the last just as they did the last year or up to 2 years.

I know most predictions seem to stall in Mar'07. That is the reason I use the term 'strut' - CIS will dare to move more because double-retrogression by moving the dates a bit back in the future is not bad :(, but wasting visas would be downright incompetent :mad:.

Veni... In this scenario where we have 20 k more for last three months... And as per your previous post 20k is the remaining known count for I/c.... Why are we still sticking to may07?? Pwmb is not at all a concern in my opinion for last three months as they can't get them cleared.... The game is to use all the numbers.... As you said the conservative calc is 32k but if CIS sees more numbers then we have a scenario where they will have more free numbers than demand... If they move the dates > July then atleast DOS can take advantage for CP....

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think the good news is ...12K EB1 is seen in action quite early on. The bad news could be there won't be a jerky movement and that they used EB1 12K early on to avoid such a jerky movement later.

If there isn't going to be a jerky movement later then the dates needs to be behind Jul-07 by at least a year's margin i.e. 6K.

So realistically the most optimist scenario becomes May 07.

As you can imagine my guess is as good or bad as anybody's. But this is what I can make of it today (assuming MUMBAI HASN'T FATFINGERED AGAIN!).

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Q,
I think there won't be any jerky movement this year, looks like DOS/USCIS is coordinating well and moving the dates forward in a controlled manner.
But there could be a chance in September if they want to bank some inventory(in-addition to PWMB) for precessing into next year.

Link:

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB-2 India: 15 Oct 06

I hope I am correct in reading the bulletin. Please ignore this if this has been already posted.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I think that EB2-C must now share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-I in June.

The movement to Oct 15 2006 means they will exceed the base 2,803 allocation.

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Spec,
EB2C may have inched forward than 15OCT2006 since more spillover numbers will be applied in the coming months.