EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

ChampU,
Thanks for the amazingly fast response.

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Originally Posted by ChampU

A friend of mine was in a similar position back in August 2007.. He had applied for H1 extension and it was in process while his PD became current.. his lawyer submitted the receipt as a proof of his current status.. His H1 was approved about 15 days after he submitted the I-485 application. When he went for the biometrics, he carried his approved H1 and a copy of it and told the officer about it. He handed over the copy to the officer, at the time of biometrics.

He was expecting a RFE about the current status, but didn't receive any. His GC was approved recently. The officer must have updated something in the system or he could have received an RFE for a different reason (that I'm not aware of) and he updated it in the system.

I guess your situation is similar to his, so you should be fine.

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Documents for 495 are very generic. Tax returns are the only major difference that I have seen so far.
here is a link:http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...0045f3d6a1RCRD

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Originally Posted by SmileBaba

Hi buddy! Can you please share the list of documents that Fragomen firm asks for filing I485? Thanks!

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Originally Posted by leo07

I'm thinking if VB were to come tomorrow they would have released Demand Data by now. Likely, it's tuesday of next week?

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Baba agrees with you! :D

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Originally Posted by leo07

Documents for 495 are very generic. Tax returns are the only major difference that I have seen so far.
here is a link:http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...0045f3d6a1RCRD

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No offense..but I have seen a lot of difference in opinions among lawyers. Some asks for W2's, paystubs etc. for last 1/2/3 years. I asked Vizcard to share Fragomen's I485 list of documents because Fragomen is one of the prominent lawyer firm.

Admin/Moderators

if possible, please move all personal questions and non-prediction/calculation related posts to different thread. Last few pages have none of the thread related posts

Yup, I totally agree this thread had outgrown the purpose. Mostly because people have started filing for 485 and CO himself is doing the predictions these days:)
In a way, CO is competing with Spec,Q,Nishanth, Teddy, Veni & co :)

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Originally Posted by bieber

Admin/Moderators

if possible, please move all personal questions and non-prediction/calculation related posts to different thread. Last few pages have none of the thread related posts

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No worries. I hear you :)

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Originally Posted by SmileBaba

No offense..but I have seen a lot of difference in opinions among lawyers. Some asks for W2's, paystubs etc. for last 1/2/3 years. I asked Vizcard to share Fragomen's I485 list of documents because Fragomen is one of the prominent lawyer firm.

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Hi ggk,

Note sure if my response is too late for you. Posting here just in case, it might help you somehow or anyone else in a similar situation.

My H1 was extended, beyond the 6 year period, on the basis of a PERM that was pending for more than a year. My PERM was in audit and got cleared through the backlog reduction process only after 2 years. In the meantime, I had got my extension and visa stamping done.

It specifically stated in my extension that the reason for extension beyond the 6 year limit is due to PERM being in pending status for more than a year.

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Originally Posted by ggk189

gurus,
I have a question.My H1 elapsed last month(could not extend it because of lack of ead /6 year completion/ my GC did not advance until I140 ) hence applied for H4 visa. All I have is a receipt for H4 that it is applied. My spouse priority date is feb 2008 under EB2I. In case if the dates become current for applying for 485 should I need to have H4 approval or does the receipt suffice.

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If Fragomen isn't your attorney, you are just going to confuse yourself. And believe me if the list by Fragomen and your attorney differs, you are going to be worried and tensed. Sometimes the more you know the more you will be confused.
Also each case is different based on individual's past and present circumustances. So some case needs W2s, paystubs, etc. as supporting documents but others don't. And that could be the reason why USCIS doesn't mention it is required.

So I would suggest you should stick and trust your attorney's instructions or else should hire Fragomen.

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Originally Posted by SmileBaba

No offense..but I have seen a lot of difference in opinions among lawyers. Some asks for W2's, paystubs etc. for last 1/2/3 years. I asked Vizcard to share Fragomen's I485 list of documents because Fragomen is one of the prominent lawyer firm.

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Agree..I was looking for demand data whole day......As Nishantbhai said...every hours seems like a day :)

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Originally Posted by leo07

I'm thinking if VB were to come tomorrow they would have released Demand Data by now. Likely, it's tuesday of next week?

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I do not mean to confuse anyone but I got below information from CM at US-Non-Immigrants Blog

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http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...s-from-mr.html



Today I talked to our attorney friend and asked him his views on statement made by Mr. Oppenheim about future movements within EB and FB category and what information they have across their law firm regarding EB2- IC

Here is his feedback as per information floating around the firm.

"Mr. Oppenheim did make those projections for EB and FB category. All the stated projections did came from Mr. Oppenheim himself. Everything other than "01 March 2008" for EB2 IC was explicitly stated. During addressing everyone in meeting Mr Oppenheim mentioned that significant movement as big as 3-4 months is expected in December bulletin with follow on movement in Jan- Feb 2012 based on demand. I(attorney) am not sure if specific date of '01 Mar 2008' was given to specific group of people later on but was not mentioned in our presence. On asking about excessive backlog in currently released inventory and it's repercussion on the stated projections, Mr. Oppenheim mentioned that he is not aware of released data from USCIS and will look into it later. Nevertheless, he still made it very clear that some significant movement for EB2 India and China is necessary to generate demand for fiscal year in order to keep cases adjudicated for processing at USCIS later in the year.

Based on released inventory it may be that Mr. Oppenheim will rethink his projected movement for EB2 India and China. I(attorney) believe this would mean bigger movement than 3-4 months for EB2 India and China in December and early retrogression than projected in summer 2012 in such case. Mr. Oppenheim was insistent about acute need to ensure enough cases are ready for adjudication before summer 2012."

CM - I believe this is very good news but please take it with a grain of salt. Let's hope for the best and be ready for the worst.

I can totally imagine the nerve wrecking tension. Hang in there strong, I some how feel that the news is going to be good. ( even if we know that it's going to be a temporary movement :))

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Originally Posted by nabrika

Agree..I was looking for demand data whole day......As Nishantbhai said...every hours seems like a day :)

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Get well soon. ( not munna bhai estyle, but seriously :)
As of now , it looks like VB will wait for your fever/cold to come down until Monday/Tuesday

btw, your PD anniversary is on 11/8 as well :)

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

point taken kd. Its difficult to do so though when 8 days from last cut off, but I see where you are coming from.

Just ordered a pizza hut pizza in all its glory. I have been sick with cold and fever, glad right now, so that doesn't impede me during the 485 running around.

Now for the cheese and to indulge.

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Most of us waiting for lucky day.. Just wait 24hrs maxxxxxx.

Is it a rule that VB is done 1-2 days after Demand data? I maybe wrong but I thought I noticed an instance (maybe last month or 2-3 months back) where the Demand data was either released same day as VB or even a day after.

There's lot of information and mis-information put together in different piles, depending on whom you ask. This could go into either of them. If at all, you may be adding a drop to the infinity (confusion), so no worries :)

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Originally Posted by nabrika

I do not mean to confuse anyone but I got below information from CM at US-Non-Immigrants Blog

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http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...s-from-mr.html



Today I talked to our attorney friend and asked him his views on statement made by Mr. Oppenheim about future movements within EB and FB category and what information they have across their law firm regarding EB2- IC

Here is his feedback as per information floating around the firm.

"Mr. Oppenheim did make those projections for EB and FB category. All the stated projections did came from Mr. Oppenheim himself. Everything other than "01 March 2008" for EB2 IC was explicitly stated. During addressing everyone in meeting Mr Oppenheim mentioned that significant movement as big as 3-4 months is expected in December bulletin with follow on movement in Jan- Feb 2012 based on demand. I(attorney) am not sure if specific date of '01 Mar 2008' was given to specific group of people later on but was not mentioned in our presence. On asking about excessive backlog in currently released inventory and it's repercussion on the stated projections, Mr. Oppenheim mentioned that he is not aware of released data from USCIS and will look into it later. Nevertheless, he still made it very clear that some significant movement for EB2 India and China is necessary to generate demand for fiscal year in order to keep cases adjudicated for processing at USCIS later in the year.

Based on released inventory it may be that Mr. Oppenheim will rethink his projected movement for EB2 India and China. I(attorney) believe this would mean bigger movement than 3-4 months for EB2 India and China in December and early retrogression than projected in summer 2012 in such case. Mr. Oppenheim was insistent about acute need to ensure enough cases are ready for adjudication before summer 2012."

CM - I believe this is very good news but please take it with a grain of salt. Let's hope for the best and be ready for the worst.

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CO can release the Dec VB ASAP like tomorrow, Jan and Feb VB can make little late based on demand data

seems like two of colleagues had their 485 - apps filed at NSC.
However mine was filed at Phoenix Service Center.
Anybody else in same situation?

Lot of comments on need for Tax return or not.
Found this paragraph in instructions section. This may explain why some attorneys have asked for W2 and tax returns.

"What If You Claim Nonresident Alien Status on Your Federal Income Tax Return?
If you are an alien who has established residence in the United States after having been admitted as an immigrant or adjusted status to that of an immigrant, and are considering the filing of a nonresident alien tax return or the non-filing of a tax return on the ground that you are a nonresident alien, you should carefully review the consequences of such actions under the Immigration and Nationality Act.


If you file a nonresident alien tax return or fail to file a tax return, you may be regarded as having abandoned residence in the United States and as having lost your permanent resident status under the Act. As a consequence, you may be ineligible for a visa or other document for which permanent resident aliens are eligible.
You may also be inadmissible to the United States if you seek admission as a returning resident, and you may become ineligible for adjustment of status as a permanent resident, or naturalization on the basis of your original entry."

mysati,
thanks for the response.since my case was not pending for more than one year I was not eligible for the same.

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Originally Posted by mysati

Hi ggk,

Note sure if my response is too late for you. Posting here just in case, it might help you somehow or anyone else in a similar situation.

My H1 was extended, beyond the 6 year period, on the basis of a PERM that was pending for more than a year. My PERM was in audit and got cleared through the backlog reduction process only after 2 years. In the meantime, I had got my extension and visa stamping done.

It specifically stated in my extension that the reason for extension beyond the 6 year limit is due to PERM being in pending status for more than a year.

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Originally Posted by gc0907

If Fragomen isn't your attorney, you are just going to confuse yourself. And believe me if the list by Fragomen and your attorney differs, you are going to be worried and tensed. Sometimes the more you know the more you will be confused.
Also each case is different based on individual's past and present circumustances. So some case needs W2s, paystubs, etc. as supporting documents but others don't. And that could be the reason why USCIS doesn't mention it is required.

So I would suggest you should stick and trust your attorney's instructions or else should hire Fragomen.

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Agreed..Thanks!

Friends , i understand the anxiety around 485 filing and lots of questions. Also i understand why everyone wants to post here.

Personally i am quite time crunched and although I keep doing cleanup .... it is becoming difficult to spend enough time to keep the cleanup. The same is true for other gurus too.

May I ask for a few volunteers who could as much as they could keep this thread clean.

The subject of the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement is extremely important to many MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers. We provide predictions only when they are based upon reliable information. What follows is such reliable information, as it was shared by Charles Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, DOS. As advised in our October 27, 2011 NewsFlash! EB2 Cutoff of Mar 1, 2008 Expected in December 2011! these predictions include significant movement in the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China in the upcoming months.

Let me know if I can be of any help.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends , i understand the anxiety around 485 filing and lots of questions. Also i understand why everyone wants to post here.

Personally i am quite time crunched and although I keep doing cleanup .... it is becoming difficult to spend enough time to keep the cleanup. The same is true for other gurus too.

May I ask for a few volunteers who could as much as they could keep this thread clean.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I think the Dec VB may be released tomorrow or next Monday.

nishant bhai, are you ready for tomorrow's VB?

I hope good luck to both of us.

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Ok qbf, and all others, this is my take. Today was no probability of VB anyways, it was only for demand data maybe. Last demand data was dated October 4th for data collection, the third working day of october, and today was the third working day of the month Nov 3. They published demand data on October 5th, the fourth working day of the month, tomorrow is the fourth working day of the month. They also released VB the same day.

Probability of VB releasing on the 4th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th is the same for now, and with each passing day after tomorrow, the probability of VB release on subsequent day will keep on getting higher!

I say the VB shall be released tomorrow. I know it has never happened, so early on the 4th of a month I think, but I am asking for it :) The demand data IMHO is not significant for this VB, it won't matter. Whatever CO wants to do, he will do. This VB he is the God, next VB on, USCIS and other reasonable factors too, shall affect and cloud his hands.

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Originally Posted by bieber

Admin/Moderators

if possible, please move all personal questions and non-prediction/calculation related posts to different thread. Last few pages have none of the thread related posts

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I will get it cleaned once Dec VB pans out.

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Originally Posted by leo07

Get well soon. ( not munna bhai estyle, but seriously :)
As of now , it looks like VB will wait for your fever/cold to come down until Monday/Tuesday

btw, your PD anniversary is on 11/8 as well :)

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Never thought of this, you are correct :D

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Originally Posted by mysati

Hi ggk,

Note sure if my response is too late for you. Posting here just in case, it might help you somehow or anyone else in a similar situation.

My H1 was extended, beyond the 6 year period, on the basis of a PERM that was pending for more than a year. My PERM was in audit and got cleared through the backlog reduction process only after 2 years. In the meantime, I had got my extension and visa stamping done.

It specifically stated in my extension that the reason for extension beyond the 6 year limit is due to PERM being in pending status for more than a year.

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Receipt should be fine. With Receipt your status is legal upto 240 days, if it is not approved until that time.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends , i understand the anxiety around 485 filing and lots of questions. Also i understand why everyone wants to post here.

Personally i am quite time crunched and although I keep doing cleanup .... it is becoming difficult to spend enough time to keep the cleanup. The same is true for other gurus too.

May I ask for a few volunteers who could as much as they could keep this thread clean.

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let me know if there s anything I can do. I can spend some time doing that.

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Originally Posted by jackbrown_890

let me know if there s anything I can do. I can spend some time doing that.

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I believe Q is requesting us to not to post comments or suggestions related to any thing other than predictions in this particular thread.
Those respective posts can be done in other threads, which are open or create new ones (which I never tried), so that this thread will be nice & clean for every one to have clear look at the predictions and Q doesn't have to spend time in cleaning it.

Q and All, Please forgive me if I am mistaken...

Thanks to all the helpful advice, I am happy to report that the 221G for correcting the employer's name in the H1B visa has been resolved. We received our passports back today, just in time for our flights back next week.

For future reference, I am documenting my experience here. My H1B visa stamping was done in New Delhi Embassy. When we received our passports back, we realized that the employer names had been misprinted (a different employer with a very similar name, somebody selected the wrong option on a drop down, I am amazed that there is no data validation for this critical step!). We contacted VFS and they asked us to submit the passport for visa correction with a cover letter and a small change fee. We did that on Oct 19th. We did not hear anything back for many days - so we sent emails to VFS and they told us that our case was in 221G processing. We duly freaked out and reached out to people here on the board - we received many informative replies with the common theme that 221G is a blanket umbrella term and since the visa is already issued, this is a minor case and it should not take much time. A 2-4 week typical turnaround time was mentioned. Today, its around 2 weeks and we got the corrected visas today. The old visa was stamped with "Cancelled Without Prejudice" and new visa with the correct employer name was printed on a new leaf. VFS staff mentioned that it took a little longer because of Diwali etc or such cases are usually done in a matter of days.

So a happy ending. Thank you again to all the posters who took the time out to share their experiences and advice. I hope my experience will be helpful to other people in similar situations in future.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Thanks Q, srimurthy, sandeep11, indiasunil, manubhai and mysati for your thoughtful replies. I am much relieved after your advice. Since they have not asked for any documents, I am just going to keep my fingers crossed, check my email like a maniac, inform my company of the stupidity, call VFS with the regularity of going to the loo after having golgappas* and finally, send laddus* to all of you once I land back in US.

*PS> QBF - golgappas are a street food in India that are sure to give you diarrhea (although I have avoided the fate on this trip) - but they are so tasty that you can not resist them. Laddus are a kind of sweet - usually distributed on occasions of celebration.

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imdeng Congratulations! Happy to see you relieved.

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Originally Posted by SmileBaba

Hi buddy! Can you please share the list of documents that Fragomen firm asks for filing I485? Thanks!

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Originally Posted by vchirakala

vizcard what is your PD ?? Mine is 04/18/2008 and I haven't received anything from them.

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Originally Posted by leo07

Documents for 495 are very generic. Tax returns are the only major difference that I have seen so far.
here is a link:http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...0045f3d6a1RCRD

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PLEASE MOVE TO THE APPROPRIATE THREAD
I specifically asked for it a little while back. I wanted to be sure I atleast figured out gaps in my "packet" so that I could chase that down. They made a point to tell me NOT to do medicals or photos till I got current.

I-485 FILING SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS LIST
NAME OF APPLICANT: ___________________________________________

 Medicals: Sealed Medical Exam from a USCIS-approved physician. As part of the Adjustment of Status process, you and any family members applying with you will need to complete a medical exam with a USCIS-approved physician. For a list of USCIS-approved physicians, please refer to the USCIS Civil Surgeon Locator at the following web site, https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?ac...ffice_type=CIV. You may also call the USCIS National Customer Service Center at 1-800-375-5283 to receive the names of USCIS-designated Civil Surgeons in your area. When contacting the physician's office for your appointment, you should inquire into which forms and/or documentation you will need to provide for the medical examination. If needed, Form I-693 can be downloaded from the USCIS website at the following link: http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/I-693.pdf.
 Photo ID: Two color photocopies of your photo ID (either driver's license or passport ID page) for yourself and each dependent applying with you
 Passports: Complete copy of current passports (including blank pages) as well as expired passports containing U.S. visa(s) for you and family members. (Copies should be made on full-size 8½ “ x 11” paper)
 Copy of most current I-94 card: (Copy should be made on full-size 8½ “ x 11” paper)
 Court and Prison Records: (if applicable) A certified copy of each court record or any prison record must be obtained for any criminal conviction(s).
 Marriage Certificates: (if applicable) A copy of an official marriage certificate. (This applies to all previous marriages, either in or outside the U.S., if married more than once.)
 Final Divorce Decree: (if applicable) Proof of termination of prior marriage(s), such as final decree of divorce, annulment, or death certificate. Custody documents must be provided for any minor children who will be applying for permanent residence. (Applies to all previous divorces or annulments, either in or outside the U.S.)
 Birth Certificates: A copy of an extract of a "Registered" birth certificate, for all applicants as well as children not applying with you, is required. The birth certificate must state the date and place of birth and full names of both parents, including the maiden name of the mother. (In some countries this is the form of birth record referred to as "full birth certificate" or "long-form birth certificate"). If you have legally changed your name since birth, other than through marriage, legal evidence of the name change must also be supplied.
 Forms I-797, I-129S: If current or prior H or L, provide copies of all Forms I-797 (approval notices) for you and family members. If entered on blanket L, provide copy of stamped I-129S.
 Employment Authorization: If current or prior F-1, J-1 or J-2, provide copies of all Forms DS2019 (formerly known as IAP-66), Form I-20s and EAD cards.
 8 Passport-style Photographs: Please clearly print your first/last name and your date of birth on the backside of each photograph in pencil. See photo specification sheet attached to our email.
 Legal evidence of name change except by marriage: (if applicable)
 Custody decree for children: (if applicable)

MISSING DOCUMENT (List any documents not submitted below and the reason for not submitting them)

__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________

No VB yet!!!

imdeng, We all are truly happy for you. Also thanks for noting your experience down. I am sure it will be helpful to others.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Thanks to all the helpful advice, I am happy to report that the 221G for correcting the employer's name in the H1B visa has been resolved.

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As per moderators I have received quite a few names. Picked first 3 (jack brown, Monica, Pedro) and have given them moderator access.

As I said - I am not overly worried about keeping thread clean. Its more important that people benefit from this and then help each other. It will be nice if we raise these discussions in appropriate forums directly. But if somebody desperately wants visibility and uses this thread we shouldn't fault him/her.

Moderators, please use caution while using your powers. Freedom of speech and helping each other is paramount. Thanks a ton for your help. If you have issues then please communicate at qesehmk@gmail.com You can also write to Teddy Nishant Veni or Spec. They can help too. They have been doing it for quite a while now.

I think we will clean it after visa bulletin release..
I can also help you on this.

Thanks,
Shreya

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

imdeng, We all are truly happy for you. Also thanks for noting your experience down. I am sure it will be helpful to others.


As per moderators I have received quite a few names. Will fiddle with the system today to figure out how to give moderator access to a thread and then get back to some of you.

As I said - I am not overly worried about keeping thread clean. Its more important that people benefit from this and then help each other. It will be nice if we raise these discussions in appropriate forums directly. But if somebody desperately wants visibility and uses this thread we shouldn't fault him/her.

Anyway thanks a lot to those who offered help! Will work on it today ASAP.

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Friends .... on another note - if you are still interested in voting please do so ASAP. We will close the vote tomorrow.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=9785#post9785

All members eagerly watching(26members, 99 guests) !!.. Big Silenceeeee !..

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Originally Posted by indiasunil

All members eagerly watching(26members, 99 guests) !!.. Big Silenceeeee !..

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Action starts from may be from 2PM :), crossing the fingers

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

So far the approvals have been extremely lukewarm at best. The 11/02 approval is EB2 ROW the guy is from Germany and the 11/01 approval is from someone with a Sep 2006 PD who had an interview so must have had a cap number reserved for his case kind off when his interview was scheduled. Besides that I read of another one which is again ROW - Cross chargeability. It’s still early days however if we do not see many approvals then it is indicative of numbers not being allocated. There were still 2.5K cases available by the last demand data. QBF what’s the news on MITTBS.

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Friends approvals on Trackitt are fairly silent. 3 cases approved yesterday 2 of them are EB3 ROW and 1 is EB2 India. So so far 2 EB2-I cases approved this month.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends approvals on Trackitt are fairly silent. 3 cases approved yesterday 2 of them are EB3 ROW and 1 is EB2 India. So so far 2 EB2-I cases approved this month.

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Teddy, is there anything that can be related to the Dec VB due to this. I am asking as most people would get nervous reading this.

My opinion is that the Dec VB EB2IC movement would have nothing to do with this. This would be already known to CO last month when he predicted, he has already given out full cap of IC, the qualified demand is not yet down to 0.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends approvals on Trackitt are fairly silent. 3 cases approved yesterday 2 of them are EB3 ROW and 1 is EB2 India. So so far 2 EB2-I cases approved this month.

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Teddy, quite a few approvals today. So I think all is well. :)