Thankyou for correcting me.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
However the fact there are so many cases on inventory (especially from Oct 2012) concerns me. Plus why havent they adjusdicated those cases? Will they eat our lunch (GC) ?
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Thankyou for correcting me.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
However the fact there are so many cases on inventory (especially from Oct 2012) concerns me. Plus why havent they adjusdicated those cases? Will they eat our lunch (GC) ?
These EB1s may be sitting with RFEs or with some other review. Also this is as of 04/02/2013. They might have processed some of these cases already in these 45 days.Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
I would say we need to wait for next month bulletin to understand how CO interprets these numbers.
I find EB5 processing is at slower pace, one data shows california centre is still processing FY 2012 cases.
Numerous FOIA queries asking for statistics showing how many jobs were created under EB5 programme, USCIS replied that they are not keeping in track of that information.
All Form Types Performance Data pending almost forever might help us understand.
I compared the numbers between the Jan and Apr Inventory Statistics
For Oct 2012 - In Jan there were 1669 pending cases and Apr there are 976 cases
For Nov 2012 - In Jan there were 1449 pending cases and Apr there are 1090 cases
For Dec 2012 - In Jan there were 1025 pending cases and Apr there are 1255 cases (this can be explained as the Jan report came out too quickly for all cases to be captured)
This tells me that the processing in EB1 is slow.
Any comments on this conclusion?
Here is the history of EB1 and EB2-WW Inventories and the movements.
EB1
Inv. ------ No. ---- Change
Apr-13 -- 11,573 -- (10.27%)
Jan-13 -- 12,898 --- (7.24%)
Oct-12 -- 13,905 -- (11.54%)
May-12 -- 15,719 ---- 0.87%
Jan-12 -- 15,583 --- 10.74%
Oct-11 -- 14,072 --- 40.89%
May-11 --- 9,988 --- 18.16%
Jan-11 --- 8,453 --- 11.30%
Oct-10 --- 7,595 ---- 2.98%
May-10 --- 7,375 -- 219.68%
Mar-10 --- 2,307 -- (22.27%)
Dec-09 --- 2,968 -- (26.72%)
Sep-09 --- 4,050
EB2-WW
Inv. ------ No. ---- Change
Apr-13 -- 12,052 -- (21.87%)
Jan-13 -- 15,425 --- (6.08%)
Oct-12 -- 16,424 --- 34.44%
May-12 -- 12,217 --- (6.70%)
Jan-12 -- 13,094 --- 18.34%
Oct-11 -- 11,065 ---- 9.10%
May-11 -- 10,142 --- 13.51%
Jan-11 --- 8,935 --- (9.88%)
Oct-10 --- 9,915 --- 46.61%
May-10 --- 6,763 --- 84.93%
Mar-10 --- 3,657 -- (38.54%)
Dec-09 --- 5,950 -- (24.41%)
Sep-09 --- 7,871
The EB2-WW level appears to have returned to something close to the level it was in May 2012. The rise in October 2012 was expected due to retrogression in the preceding months.
This might have been possible due to any of the following :Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
1. EB2 WW Demand reduced
2. After Oct-12 CO started assigning VISA numbers for all the preadjudicated EB2 WW cases
3. USCIS Processing efficiency improved
I have no question on number 3. We are sure nothing has changed in terms of USCIS processing.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
based on the latest inventory how much spillover do you expect EB2I will get in the next 3 months, Do you believe it can definitely clear out dec 2007 (mine is in Nov 2007). I have based so many plans based on the timing that knowing the possibility of movements will help me immensely. If the latest predictions are different from april 4th or more refined, can you update your predictions from 1st page as yours are "Gold standard" that almost everyone rely on
Spec
Is it necessary for the CO to release a definite Visa quantity every month? or every quarter
How do we know if he is doing this?
(I do not want to know why should he do this? but can this happen? and how will anyone notice this?)
Can one of our gurus please explain
how demand data and Inventory are used together in determining demand / cut off. For ex EB2 I has demand of 450 until Jan 1st 2005 per demand data. But per Inventory report released,
until 2005 we have 800 cases pending before Jan 1st 2005.
Thanks
DD= preadjudicated 485+ CPQuote:
Originally Posted by seattlet
inventory= all pending 485
DD is used to determine cut-off dates
Is it necessary for the CO to release a definite Visa quantity every month? or every quarter
every month' exception is spillover
How do we know if he is doing this?
cut off date on bulletin and trackitt data.
we dont have official GC's issued for this fiscal yet
The law only says that not more than 27% of visas may be used in each of the first 3 quarters - it does not set a minimum number.
CO is also (by law) allowed to use estimates of future visa use when setting the Cut Off Dates. This could lead to a situation where the total expected number of monthly visas are not allocated, in the expectation that they will be needed in the future.
For instance, this year, he surely knows that there will be a period of apparent low Demand for EB3-ROW/C/M, but he also knows that will likely be fulfilled when USCIS adjudicates the newly submitted cases (as long as it is before the end of the FY).
indiani,Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
It's still too early to say.
I want to wait to see what the first movement is in the July VB.
Gut feel says my existing forecast is now a little optimistic and represents a best case scenario. Full disclosure - am using quite an aggressive amount for porting numbers. If that is incorrect, then I will be seen as pessimistic. Don't ask the number - all I will say is that it is bigger than the 4.5k I believe Matt is using, although ultimately it doesn't make such a huge difference.
I would urge no-one to use my guesstimates for any important decisions. The data is too imprecise ( or just completely unavailable) and the error margins are too wide.
Hi Spec,
I am also working on the final projection numbers, do feel that 4500 is on the lower side, I am moving it up to 5500-6000. So over all porting this fiscal will be 7000-7500 including the visas issued so far this fiscal.
I have a question for you, any idea of % RFE's for existing pre-adjudicated cases, Is 5% a too high percentage?
Thanks,
Matt
I belive only after we seeing last bulletin of this fiscal year that there will be 100% certainity of exact movement, its extremely frustating that they just dont publish the Gc's issued every month even though they might have the data readily available.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I dont want to move to a new job with Nov 07 PD in eb2I as I missed the boat once. There needs to be 7000 spillover to cover my PD but I am not 100% certain that is going to happen even though I have pinned all my hopes on the movement which i expect in july/august.
I dont think the porters will get GC if they start making significant moves after august. ( even when they apply in July, only less than 50% might actually get GC)
Indiani,
Just for curiosity, do u have EAD? r just applying I485 for the first time. Am having NOV2007PD, I missed I485 filing last time in 2012. This time, I just want to see my luck if I can get a chance to apply for I485. If not this time I give it up and made up my mind to go back to home country. Qesh/Vizz have given me some hope here for my earlier posts saying NOV2007 will current based on their educated analysis and calculations. Hope for the best.
Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
I am very much optimistic that Nov 2007 EB2I PD will get a chance to file I-485 this fiscal. But as Spec pointed out, dont take your decisions on any of our calculations. We try to make projections based on availaible data and some assumptions. if our assumptions hold well, our projections will be close enough to reality.
Good luck,
Matt
Thanks for your optimism matt,Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
I already filed 485 last year and I am not a porter. waiting from 2007 almost every month for bulletins and looking at trends , calculations etc., only to realise that CO left us out to give 2008/2009 folks. Like me most people who have been waiting from 2007 and early 2008 perhaps pinned all the hopes on this last Q.
Trackitt data is as close we can get to guess about approvals as possible but it is very difficult to say whether same percentage of actual applicants use trackitt consistently. changes in inventory/DD also have their limitations. even if everything we predict can be close there is no guarantee that CO will not waste visas and will follow FIFO.
My personal predicition for whatever its worth:
My guess is CO might make a safe move to jan 2007 or june 2007 to test how much porting is there in next bulletin before making any significant moves. I have watched over the years that he tends to "TEST THE WATERS" or check the 'DEMAND IN THE PIPELINE" before using all spillover. Folks who have been reading CO's past predictions might be familiar with the terms
I don't understand why you want to "give up and go back to home country."
After all these years I feel like this is my home country .
If you see the inventory dec 2007 has 900 cases. so to clear nov 2007 we need 7K spillover and currently the fact is that all the categories are current so invariable there will be spillover, as long as CO follows FIFO and doesnt waste visas my guess is that there are very high chances that it will clear by august thsi year. So does vast majority of people here think.
as I mentioned in my other post I have EAD and when i responded to RFE (EVL was asked) the case status online is still "request for evidence" even though when i sent a SR, they replied that they received EVL and the PD is not current etc..
If they dont follow FIFO this time I am considering suing the govt.,( if any reputable lawyer is willing to take the case.)
Porting numbers will be high from 2006 folks. So for "TEST THE WATERS" he need to break at mid 2006 in July.Once dates gets into 2007, porting demand will fully show up. Also there cannot be significant number of approvals in September.I think it will be a very difficult balancing game for the last quarter for EB2I. This is what I think, in July say 60% of the projected SO will be applied, 30% in August, and the last 10% in September. On the other hand he is planning to move dates only in August, it will be a different ball game. I think I have heard Spec's and Viz's thought on pattern of date movement. Q, Kanmani any thoughts? Other gurus can also chip in. I know it is a difficult question, because none of us can read CO's thought process.All of us are equally helpless., but will be nice to hear from highly experienced folks.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
Some random thoughts abt the inventory.
1. EB2 WW has reduced considerably - Is this hyperactive USCIS? But it may be good news that demand has not increased hinting at lower applications in the coming months
2. EB1 - Has also decreased . Does this hint at lower approvals this year than the consensus here?
3. The odd thing abt EB2I was the 264 in August 2004. Whats with that? How is that possible that inventory increased for august by has considerably decreased for all earlier months? Something wrong there.
On the whole I think with the current data that we have we can safely assume a SO of around 7000 at the minimum.
Thoughts inline.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
EB2 WW drop is expected, see spec's post for explanation.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
I dont think EB2WW will exceed their current quota (including FB which is already allocated), so Eb2I will receive from EB1, EB4 both combined approx 10K.(my guess is less than 10K)
I don't think cut off date movements from august onwards will give porters any GC this fiscal as 60 days too short for GC approval (even though very few can get). for all fresh applications July is your last hope to get GC this fiscal.
all FB's are spread across already,. so there is no 12K that will fall to EB2I, as EB2WW and EB5 will likely us ealmost most of the FB spillover applied to them.
EB1, EB4 will give few thousands to EB2I (less than 10K)
Nov2007 - although ours is educated guess - I really would be surprised if the guess doesn't come true. Having said that ... I think everybody has certain priorities. So make a decision that will excite you for future. If that means going back to India or stay here ... that would turn out terrific eitherway.Quote:
Originally Posted by NOV2007
Even if porting is higher - what % of that would get approved this FY?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
If they moves dates in july significantly and many porters apply 485 ; then many of those ( potentially couple of thousands) will consume GC's but anyone who applies in august most likely will get EAD this fiscal.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Sounds optimistic to me ...let me check current I485 processing timeQuote:
Originally Posted by indiani
suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
That is the big question.
If USCIS have been lining up those pre July 2007 cases who already have a pending I-485 for approval, by requesting RFE in advance, then it could be quite a lot, because approval would be as quick as for any other EB2 case.
Any RFE after dates become current, whether porting or straight EB2, is going to compromise the chances of being approved this FY.
indiani,Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
I don't think that is such a big factor. Most porting cases already have an I-485 pending under EB3. That limits the effect only to post July 2007 PD cases that completed the new EB2 I-140 process after April/May 2012. Those cases would be in the minority.
Spectator,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
that brings us back to the question if USCIS processes porting cases - even if dates are not current ?
In that case there could be upto 7K or more total porters who will consume GC's as they have been waiting for over an year, there will be very high demand which i dont think is reflected yet in last DD. So there might be some chances of dates not moving beyond summer 2007, this scenario though doesnt appear likely but definitely possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Most calculations have expectant bias so many of us waiting are in denial of that real possibility of movement just enough to giev mostly porters and very few left over before summer 2007.
I am not sure whether i should ask L2 officer abt predictions, I am waiting on them to pick up the phone with average wait time of 75 min :(
Why would they not ? its like pre-adjudication of regular EB2 cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I am happy if they do- that way isn't porting already in DD? (well, majority of that)Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Ok - I think I see what you guys are saying. They are pre-adjudicated as EB3 cases and given a visa number from EB2 when dates are current?Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Thanks Qeseh for your Suggestions. Am pretty confident your analysis is going to be perfect for this FY.
I have searched very meticulously internet and I havn't found any other forum which is as good as this is. Its a great contribution from you along with other Guru's here.
Reply to Matt for my previous response
------------------------------------------
Matt, I totally agree with you on analysis and prediction is being done here. We hope for it to happen because of lot of effort and time you guys have spent in analysis and to make prediction on PD movement. If it doesn't happen its nothing to blame upon, because its not in any of Guru's or Qeseh hands. But you guys analysis will help people like me to understand what is driving PD movements and understand the system better.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Yes, that is exactly right.
Thank you !Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Pending inventory released:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...13%20Final.pdf
gc2008,Quote:
Originally Posted by gc2008
You might want to go back to page 65 to see the discussion on the new Inventory.