EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by gtyagi

First of all, dude, drop the attitude

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?????????????? Did you had a bad day? Premium processing is 2 weeks if you find out on June 10th that you are current in July you have 8 weeks to get I-140 approved and file I485.
What answer did you want to your question? "Yes go ahead pay premium and you will be current 100%"? I was just trying to explain you that the answer needs to come from you by answering "do I need the EAD in February 2014 or I can wait to get my greencard in September 2014"

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Originally Posted by gtyagi

I guess I will know myself in 2-3 weeks.

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You got it.

I forgot the exact question but the member was looking for some information on how to get pending/approved I-485 data from USCIS . I could see people are filing under FOIA to get these data ........http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/About%20U...FOIA%20Log.pdf

gtyagi, there is a general opinion on trackitt that premium processing is not accepted for porting cases as they need more than 15 days. I am not sure though.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

I forgot the exact question but the member was looking for some information on how to get pending/approved I-485 data from USCIS . I could see people are filing under FOIA to get these data ........http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/About%20U...FOIA%20Log.pdf

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I'll bet a lot of these are staffers for CIR.

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Originally Posted by gtyagi

First of all, dude, drop the attitude. My first part of the comment is to make everyone aware that although icert portal is not updated, LD is approving cases filed in January 1st week. Second, depending on current scenarios, if the dates are not going to be current for April 2008, there is no point for me to file for i-140. I guess I will know myself in 2-3 weeks.

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Whether it is porting case or not.. I-140 premium processing is valid as per law.. Not aware of any interim memo like PP for porting cases is not valid. If it is please throw some light on that law.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...004718190aRCRD

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Originally Posted by immitime

Whether it is porting case or not.. I-140 premium processing is valid as per law.. Not aware of any interim memo like PP for porting cases is not valid. If it is please throw some light on that law.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...004718190aRCRD

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That is a really out of date link. The conditions in it have not been in place for some time to my knowledge. It seems that was superceded effective June 29, 2009.

This is the latest USCIS PP page.

I don't see anything that would exclude porting cases, unless they do not have the original LC for the EB2 I-140.

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Originally Posted by gtyagi

First of all, dude, drop the attitude. My first part of the comment is to make everyone aware that although icert portal is not updated, LD is approving cases filed in January 1st week. Second, depending on current scenarios, if the dates are not going to be current for April 2008, there is no point for me to file for i-140. I guess I will know myself in 2-3 weeks.

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You can do premium processing.

gtyagi - unless you are paying out of pocket - I would definitely recommend getting 140 done without waiting for 485.

If you are paying out of pocket its your choice. But I would've waited.

On another note - sometimes people don't mean we read in those words. I would've just thanked isantem for even taking the trouble to respond to my question.

Anyway .. Cheer up ... Apr 2008 is not too far. Worst case is 14 months from today. But likely Apr 2008 should get through.

Ron's comments on PP - EB3->EB2 porting http://www.immigration-information.c...4-i140-porting

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Ron's comments on PP - EB3->EB2 porting http://www.immigration-information.c...4-i140-porting

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I think Ron is totally wrong here.


If you port an EB3 priority date to EB2 I140 priority date using premium processing, USCIS will approve the EB2 140 with a new priority date but mention the old A# number in most cases. (In some cases, they will also port the priority date). However A# capture is sufficient.

After approval of new I140, your lawyer can raise a request with USCIS if the old priority date or A # was not captured ( I think you file it as an USCIS error if you had provided the earlier I140 approval details earlier but USCIS failed to act on it). They will then correct it and
send a new copy of I140 with A# and the old priority date. I got this done couple of months ago.

Thanks Viz. I appreciate it.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

If you can, I'd recommend a premium processing - that's what I would do.
Best case - you get GC (or atleast EAD), worst case - you spent the premium processing fee.

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Kanmani, I am just trying to keep the priority date from EB2 to EB2. I changed job and missed the date last time. I am hoping this would be fine for premium processing.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

gtyagi, there is a general opinion on trackitt that premium processing is not accepted for porting cases as they need more than 15 days. I am not sure though.

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Thanks Q. Saw your comment late.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

gtyagi - unless you are paying out of pocket - I would definitely recommend getting 140 done without waiting for 485.

If you are paying out of pocket its your choice. But I would've waited.

On another note - sometimes people don't mean we read in those words. I would've just thanked isantem for even taking the trouble to respond to my question.

Anyway .. Cheer up ... Apr 2008 is not too far. Worst case is 14 months from today. But likely Apr 2008 should get through.

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Did you miss the opening last Jan 2012?

I am not sure and really don't want to mess up too. But I have read several posts over the years, people discussing about this. Good Luck .

his labor just cleared ... probably that meant he ported.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Did you miss the opening last Jan 2012?

I am not really sure and really don't want to mess up too. But I have read several posts over the years, people discussing about this. Good Luck .

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

his labor just cleared ... probably that meant he ported.

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Q, No. He has changed employer with no I-485 filing in hand. He probably missed the boat.

Oh .. i didn't read his last post. He definitely missed the boat. I wonder how that is even possible!!

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Q, No. He has changed employer with no I-485 filing in hand. He probably missed the boat.

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Q, Kanmani

I didnot port from EB3-EB2. Original PD was April 2008. But I had to change job and due to some issues it took more than a year to just file for Labor. The case was started with murthy in November 2011 and they filed for labor in Jan 2013.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

his labor just cleared ... probably that meant he ported.

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Gurus I know this thread is not appropriate on CIR, but little curious. How far are we from CIR. Can Gurus comment on it. Since next month there is a likely change of forward movement in dates if we can also take a stock of CIR implication it would give good perspective to forum readers.

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Originally Posted by mailmvr

Gurus I know this thread is not appropriate on CIR, but little curious. How far are we from CIR. Can Gurus comment on it. Since next month there is a likely change of forward movement in dates if we can also take a stock of CIR implication it would give good perspective to forum readers.

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I'll answer this one but please post all follow up questions on the Bills thread or CIR thread.

CIR is still a long way to go. It will most likely pass the Senate in June (before 4th of July). At that point, the House will take over. Given that the House is crafting their own bill, they will go through their process (similar to the Senate) and vote in the House - probably some time in Sept (almost all of August is summer recess). Assuming the House bill passes in the House, there will be offline discussions to find a compromise between the House and Senate bills. Subsequently, the new compromised bill will be voted on in the House and Senate. As you can see there is a lot of procedure, a ton of hurdles and lots of backroom dealings. IF CIR passes at all, it won't be this FY (IMO).

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

PDF version

I notice that the EB1 numbers are pretty high compared to last year. However what I dont understand is how come these many applications having been sitting there for so long given that it is EB1 and processing time is 3 to 4 months.

These high numbers scare me as we were hoping to have a large fall down from EB1.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

PDF version

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Surprisingly light on EB1 and EB2-ROW. Not by much still it may be indicative.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Surprisingly light on EB1 and EB2-ROW. Not by much still it may be indicative.

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2007 looks possible!

Category May2012 Apr2013
EB1 15719 11573
EBROW 11819 10227

From Pending inventory in Apr 2013 and May 2012 (Last year)

Natvyas, your reading is incorrect based on above facts.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Category May2012 Apr2013
EB1 15719 11573
EBROW 11819 10227

From Pending inventory in Apr 2013 and May 2012 (Last year)

Natvyas, your reading is incorrect based on above facts.

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Thankyou for correcting me.

However the fact there are so many cases on inventory (especially from Oct 2012) concerns me. Plus why havent they adjusdicated those cases? Will they eat our lunch (GC) ?

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Originally Posted by natvyas

I notice that the EB1 numbers are pretty high compared to last year. However what I dont understand is how come these many applications having been sitting there for so long given that it is EB1 and processing time is 3 to 4 months.

These high numbers scare me as we were hoping to have a large fall down from EB1.

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These EB1s may be sitting with RFEs or with some other review. Also this is as of 04/02/2013. They might have processed some of these cases already in these 45 days.

I would say we need to wait for next month bulletin to understand how CO interprets these numbers.

I find EB5 processing is at slower pace, one data shows california centre is still processing FY 2012 cases.

Numerous FOIA queries asking for statistics showing how many jobs were created under EB5 programme, USCIS replied that they are not keeping in track of that information.

All Form Types Performance Data pending almost forever might help us understand.

I compared the numbers between the Jan and Apr Inventory Statistics

For Oct 2012 - In Jan there were 1669 pending cases and Apr there are 976 cases
For Nov 2012 - In Jan there were 1449 pending cases and Apr there are 1090 cases
For Dec 2012 - In Jan there were 1025 pending cases and Apr there are 1255 cases (this can be explained as the Jan report came out too quickly for all cases to be captured)

This tells me that the processing in EB1 is slow.

Any comments on this conclusion?

Here is the history of EB1 and EB2-WW Inventories and the movements.

EB1

Inv. ------ No. ---- Change
Apr-13 -- 11,573 -- (10.27%)
Jan-13 -- 12,898 --- (7.24%)
Oct-12 -- 13,905 -- (11.54%)
May-12 -- 15,719 ---- 0.87%
Jan-12 -- 15,583 --- 10.74%
Oct-11 -- 14,072 --- 40.89%
May-11 --- 9,988 --- 18.16%
Jan-11 --- 8,453 --- 11.30%
Oct-10 --- 7,595 ---- 2.98%
May-10 --- 7,375 -- 219.68%
Mar-10 --- 2,307 -- (22.27%)
Dec-09 --- 2,968 -- (26.72%)
Sep-09 --- 4,050

EB2-WW

Inv. ------ No. ---- Change
Apr-13 -- 12,052 -- (21.87%)
Jan-13 -- 15,425 --- (6.08%)
Oct-12 -- 16,424 --- 34.44%
May-12 -- 12,217 --- (6.70%)
Jan-12 -- 13,094 --- 18.34%
Oct-11 -- 11,065 ---- 9.10%
May-11 -- 10,142 --- 13.51%
Jan-11 --- 8,935 --- (9.88%)
Oct-10 --- 9,915 --- 46.61%
May-10 --- 6,763 --- 84.93%
Mar-10 --- 3,657 -- (38.54%)
Dec-09 --- 5,950 -- (24.41%)
Sep-09 --- 7,871

The EB2-WW level appears to have returned to something close to the level it was in May 2012. The rise in October 2012 was expected due to retrogression in the preceding months.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The EB2-WW level appears to have returned to something close to the level it was in May 2012. The rise in October 2012 was expected due to retrogression in the preceding months.

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This might have been possible due to any of the following :

1. EB2 WW Demand reduced
2. After Oct-12 CO started assigning VISA numbers for all the preadjudicated EB2 WW cases
3. USCIS Processing efficiency improved

I have no question on number 3. We are sure nothing has changed in terms of USCIS processing.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Here is the history of EB1 and EB2-WW Inventories and the movements.

EB1

Inv. ------ No. ---- Change
Apr-13 -- 11,573 -- (10.27%)
Jan-13 -- 12,898 --- (7.24%)
Oct-12 -- 13,905 -- (11.54%)
May-12 -- 15,719 ---- 0.87%
Jan-12 -- 15,583 --- 10.74%
Oct-11 -- 14,072 --- 40.89%
May-11 --- 9,988 --- 18.16%
Jan-11 --- 8,453 --- 11.30%
Oct-10 --- 7,595 ---- 2.98%
May-10 --- 7,375 -- 219.68%
Mar-10 --- 2,307 -- (22.27%)
Dec-09 --- 2,968 -- (26.72%)
Sep-09 --- 4,050

EB2-WW

Inv. ------ No. ---- Change
Apr-13 -- 12,052 -- (21.87%)
Jan-13 -- 15,425 --- (6.08%)
Oct-12 -- 16,424 --- 34.44%
May-12 -- 12,217 --- (6.70%)
Jan-12 -- 13,094 --- 18.34%
Oct-11 -- 11,065 ---- 9.10%
May-11 -- 10,142 --- 13.51%
Jan-11 --- 8,935 --- (9.88%)
Oct-10 --- 9,915 --- 46.61%
May-10 --- 6,763 --- 84.93%
Mar-10 --- 3,657 -- (38.54%)
Dec-09 --- 5,950 -- (24.41%)
Sep-09 --- 7,871

The EB2-WW level appears to have returned to something close to the level it was in May 2012. The rise in October 2012 was expected due to retrogression in the preceding months.

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Spec,
based on the latest inventory how much spillover do you expect EB2I will get in the next 3 months, Do you believe it can definitely clear out dec 2007 (mine is in Nov 2007). I have based so many plans based on the timing that knowing the possibility of movements will help me immensely. If the latest predictions are different from april 4th or more refined, can you update your predictions from 1st page as yours are "Gold standard" that almost everyone rely on

Spec

Is it necessary for the CO to release a definite Visa quantity every month? or every quarter

How do we know if he is doing this?

(I do not want to know why should he do this? but can this happen? and how will anyone notice this?)

Can one of our gurus please explain

how demand data and Inventory are used together in determining demand / cut off. For ex EB2 I has demand of 450 until Jan 1st 2005 per demand data. But per Inventory report released,
until 2005 we have 800 cases pending before Jan 1st 2005.

Thanks

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Originally Posted by seattlet

Can one of our gurus please explain

how demand data and Inventory are used together in determining demand / cut off. For ex EB2 I has demand of 450 until Jan 1st 2005 per demand data. But per Inventory report released,
until 2005 we have 800 cases pending before Jan 1st 2005.

Thanks

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DD= preadjudicated 485+ CP
inventory= all pending 485
DD is used to determine cut-off dates

Is it necessary for the CO to release a definite Visa quantity every month? or every quarter
every month' exception is spillover

How do we know if he is doing this?
cut off date on bulletin and trackitt data.

we dont have official GC's issued for this fiscal yet

The law only says that not more than 27% of visas may be used in each of the first 3 quarters - it does not set a minimum number.

CO is also (by law) allowed to use estimates of future visa use when setting the Cut Off Dates. This could lead to a situation where the total expected number of monthly visas are not allocated, in the expectation that they will be needed in the future.

For instance, this year, he surely knows that there will be a period of apparent low Demand for EB3-ROW/C/M, but he also knows that will likely be fulfilled when USCIS adjudicates the newly submitted cases (as long as it is before the end of the FY).

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Originally Posted by indiani

Spec,
based on the latest inventory how much spillover do you expect EB2I will get in the next 3 months, Do you believe it can definitely clear out dec 2007 (mine is in Nov 2007). I have based so many plans based on the timing that knowing the possibility of movements will help me immensely. If the latest predictions are different from april 4th or more refined, can you update your predictions from 1st page as yours are "Gold standard" that almost everyone rely on

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indiani,

It's still too early to say.

I want to wait to see what the first movement is in the July VB.

Gut feel says my existing forecast is now a little optimistic and represents a best case scenario. Full disclosure - am using quite an aggressive amount for porting numbers. If that is incorrect, then I will be seen as pessimistic. Don't ask the number - all I will say is that it is bigger than the 4.5k I believe Matt is using, although ultimately it doesn't make such a huge difference.

I would urge no-one to use my guesstimates for any important decisions. The data is too imprecise ( or just completely unavailable) and the error margins are too wide.

Hi Spec,

I am also working on the final projection numbers, do feel that 4500 is on the lower side, I am moving it up to 5500-6000. So over all porting this fiscal will be 7000-7500 including the visas issued so far this fiscal.

I have a question for you, any idea of % RFE's for existing pre-adjudicated cases, Is 5% a too high percentage?

Thanks,
Matt

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Originally Posted by Spectator

indiani,

It's still too early to say.

I want to wait to see what the first movement is in the July VB.

Gut feel says my existing forecast is now a little optimistic and represents a best case scenario. Full disclosure - am using quite an aggressive amount for porting numbers. If that is incorrect, then I will be seen as pessimistic. Don't ask the number - all I will say is that it is bigger than the 4.5k I believe Matt is using, although ultimately it doesn't make such a huge difference.

I would urge no-one to use my guesstimates for any important decisions. The data is too imprecise ( or just completely unavailable) and the error margins are too wide.

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I belive only after we seeing last bulletin of this fiscal year that there will be 100% certainity of exact movement, its extremely frustating that they just dont publish the Gc's issued every month even though they might have the data readily available.

I dont want to move to a new job with Nov 07 PD in eb2I as I missed the boat once. There needs to be 7000 spillover to cover my PD but I am not 100% certain that is going to happen even though I have pinned all my hopes on the movement which i expect in july/august.

I dont think the porters will get GC if they start making significant moves after august. ( even when they apply in July, only less than 50% might actually get GC)