http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_3397126.htmlQuote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
Here is the video to the house passing of that controversial piece.. It was using the congress's "power of purse" to counter the executive branch. Reid thrown it to dustbin on arrival with a statement.
By the same timelines of 7 months, a new bill from House will take another 7 months to pass House and another 2-4 months in conference with the Senate. This already puts the immigration reform to 9-11 months which is Summer next year. Timing-wise this fits well in the Republican primaries which has been the primary concern for House members. Though I don't know exactly when the GOP primaries are to select Candidates.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
The only way out of this pickle for the republican party is that Mr. Boehner is "forced" to bring the Senate Version of the bill to the floor for voting. I think this is what is going to end up happening.
This way the House members (to the right) can be in the good books of their constituents and GOP Senator can hope to win the White House in 2016.
House gang of 7 bill after summer recess.
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...ain-94336.html
Today I bumped into below URL to sign petition to house. Are you guys aware of it. Is it a legit one?
http://www.fwd.us/house?recruiter_id=127876
fwd.us is Mark Zuckerberg's lobbying front for Immigration reform. They have spent the most money among the pro-immigration groups and is widely responsible for outspending the anti-immigrant groups.Quote:
Originally Posted by GCKnowHow
Join hands with them.. Register as volunteer and do what they ask to do.. They ask to do some timely action items (like they asked everyone to call House of Representatives a day before the July 10th meeting).. It's easy to call through their website as you will get a incoming call based on your zip code automatically.
August recess-Make or Break
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...ess-94389.html
Hispanic media focusing exclusively on John Boehner
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-john-boehner/
Opponents seem to have upper hand right now. August seems make or break for immigration reform.Quote:
Originally Posted by psychedelicNerd
My two cents:Quote:
Originally Posted by rupen86
1. CIR wont pass this year. If it does then I will be happy as I have not even filed 485 yet. Republicans are fearing that they might loose their conservative votes and end up loosing the house to democrats. It is also important to note that there is a fair chance of having republicans form majority in both senate and house after 2014 elections. Most of the seats to be contested in senate in nov 2014 are belonging to democrats today. Thus Republicans can potentially turn them over and gain majority in both senate and house.
2. It will pass after 2014 elections which might be summer of 2015. I am hoping either democrats win house and retain senate OR republicans win senate and retain house. Both outcomes are good for legal immigrants and the reform we need will then be passed. So there is good chance for reform post 2014.
That is one line of thinking which may be right. But it may be too early to give up. Backers are preparing for final push.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/pol...o-finish-line/
Its tough sledding because those Republicans who are not potential Presidential candidates (e.g. Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush, etc) dont give a crap about national politics and could care less about the "greater good for America" as long as their jobs in their constituencies are secureQuote:
Originally Posted by rupen86
If we keep ourselves in the shoes of Republicans we would be able to figure out what their strategy is:Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
1. Pro-Immigrant votes do not matter in the House or Senate elections as most people do not care to vote.
2. Pro-Immigrant votes do matter in Presidential elections
3. Anti-Immigrant votes do matter in Republican Primaries
There is no incentive for them to pass it this year due to senate and house elections coming up. The Republican congressmen (both pro and anti immigration stance) want the decision to be deferred.
- The pro-immigrants like (Rubio, Jeb Bush, McCain, Graham) would ideally benefit in the 2016 presidential race if the immigration reform was passed in 2015. Its human tendency to forget things that happened 3 years earlier and hence the best way for them to claim credit is to let it pass in 2015.
- The anti-immigrants like (Sessions, Goodlate) would benefit in primaries as they get the anti-immigrant vote . Hence even they want the decision to be deferred until 2015.
I am hoping against hope that it might pass sooner but looks like its destined to pass in 2015.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
CIR won't wait for 2015. It's 2013/2014 or bust. Moves will happen after the primaries and not elections. Republican citizens will vote republican where the candidate is tea party or regular. So the incumbents have to just get thru the primaries to avoid losing their jobs.
I don't think the Reps will win the Senate. In fact I believe the Dems will strengthen their majority.
Another thinking that Boehner is playing by strategy. Although, I do not quite agree with this.
http://www.ibtimes.com/immigration-r...enship-1355789
I disagree. I feel that the chances are brighter in 2015.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I agree with the statement that "Moves will happen after the primaries and not elections". Presidential elections are 2016 and Primaries will be 2015. Thus 2015 is the best chance.
Another possibility is that dems might win the house in Nov 2014. If that happens then we can see CIR pass in Dec 2014. Even that would be technically called 2015.
Consider this... You have two sons... first has a bday in June and second in December... In May you will look for gifts for the son who's bday is in June and in Nov you will look for gifts for the other one.
Nov 2014 election is the main base of republicans... they cant afford to loose conservative voters in 2014 election.
Nov 2016 (Presidential) they know the conservatives will vote for Republican... That time they need the Latinos, Asians, etc to win White house. Hence 2015 :).
Very good interview by Gutiérrez
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...m_business_pop
He perfectly summarizes Republican insistence on Hastert rule.
"Don’t you see this anti-democratic, anti-democracy bent in everything they’re saying? In other words, “I can’t allow this process to go forward because the majority might win. Therefore, I’m going to use my minority status to obstruct. I’m going to join 30 other Republicans and say, ‘You’re not going to get anything because conference equals amnesty in your mind, or equals getting an immigration bill.’”
"How does that speak to American values? I don’t know. If you take that, there would be no vote for women, blacks would still be back at the back of the bus, the gay community would still not be recognized. Come on, it is the triumph of the majority, right, that sustains and strengthens democracy. You really weaken democracy when you allow a minority to use legislative tools to thwart the will of the majority. How’s that gonna make you feel? That’s what people rebel against."
"It’s almost too cavalier. “Of course Luis, you have 218 votes, but you need a majority of the majority.” It’s almost like that is what is taught in basic civics in America, and why would you question it? It’s the new truth.
We’re going to question that new truth. You just say, “Wait a minute, that’s not exactly fair. I thought the guy with the most votes wins.”
I have been following politics for more than a decade now, until about 6 months before elections its difficult to even remotely predict the outcome.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
CIR will pass in the next few years, its just a matter of time but for someone who will get GC in 1-2 yrs even without CIR it might save at the most a year or so ( especially someone who doesn't have stable job)
See comments inline
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Some hope, threat and despair
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/31...m-dim-in-2014-
Just to keep this thread alive-some info from Rep.Ryan (very vague) and no supporting information from either house leadership or other congressmen
http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepo...217134531.html
If this is indeed true there is no need to break our heads for 2 months at the least
It seems little positive news that there is a plan to vote on bills in October including 15 year path for citizenship.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
Interesting report ..
http://www.americanbridgepac.org/201...0-of-the-time/
I am not sure what it takes for the republican national congress to keep the anti immigrant faction quiet..
This statics does not tell the fact that till now republican party was aligned with King's ideas on immigration but the shift is recent which has happened after November election.Quote:
Originally Posted by idiotic
Budget fights may affect immigration reform negatively.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...rehensive.html
Good analysis..Paul Ryan to take a lead.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...opeless-cause/
And below one, still asking valid question why house members would support it when their seats are safe unless Boehner brings bill without majority of republican supporting it.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-in-the-house/
Some funny stuff..
"As McCain, 76, walked out of the Dem-filled space, reporters pressed him as to why he stepped foot in the room.
Saying he “had to give a speech,” McCain was eyed walking away sporting a big grin."
"The senator on Wednesday joked it would a "difficult choice" for him if Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton were to face off for the presidency in 2016."
http://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know...caucus-meeting
this is very realistic scenario.
"My bet is, Democrats will demand far more than House Republicans can possibly deliver."
http://www.nationaljournal.com/colum...ampaign=Buffer
Thanks PD. The article is quite neat. I agree with the tone. Personally now I am of the opinion that even 35% is a tall order.
Republicans are entirely driven to see Obama fail. So their focus is going to be crafting a bill that in no way shape or form can be tied to Obama. It means one and only one thing - there won't be any bill.
Dems on the other hand are in a strong position here - win or lose - and are unlikely to yield.
The intransigence of GOP is far more systemic and not necessarily tied to immigration. It has to do with the psyche of the majority who feels their way is threatened in new america. And hence common sense is not going to prevail.
There are 2 specific examples of how common sense is not prevailing:
1) The entire economic crisis so badly warranted public spending on infrastructure. Yet we saw very little movement there.
2) With baby boomers retiring America is actually going to face crisis of young workers. But there is little appetite to address EB immigration on its own merit.
On both fronts - we are seeing lack of action because political climate is too muddy. Otherwise both issues are no-brainers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25
One thing I do not understand. As the article correctly points out that most house republicans would be ok if the bill is passed without their votes, Boehner's insistence on hastert rule contradicts that point. If he allows vote on senate bill, he could pass without having to ask house republicans to vote for it.Quote:
Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25
You should read the comments section of the article and you could see the comments as ultra-anti-immigration. People are talking about LEGAL immigration as detrimental to the country along with the regular bashing of amnesty provisions.Quote:
Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25
These comments are probably by anti-immigrant groups. Anti-immigrant groups like NUSA has dedicated volunteers who write these comments.Quote:
Originally Posted by seahawks2012
Thats a pervasive theme ... loud anti-immigration minority... very very loud. Starting with Steve King and down to groups like NumbersUSAQuote:
Originally Posted by gcq
Friends
Bob Goodlatte (House Judiciary committee chairman) has mentioned about the removing per country caps in this article on National Review (http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...-bob-goodlatte)
Looks like a good sign for at least some relief (i.e. without increasing gc quotas) and making the system fair.Quote:
...and repealing the employment-based per-country cap, which doesn’t increase legal immigration but does decrease the longest wait times. ...
There is nothing new in removing per country limit now. It is in the senate bill. It is in SKILL bill. And I believe, it will be part of any bill introduced in future. But it is not good as he is making it sound. SKILL bill raises H1 3 times and including dependents, it will raise it at least 6 times while only allocating 50,000 STEM green cards. Math does not look good to me even though it includes per country quota elimination.Quote:
Originally Posted by Techsavvy1973
The Senate bill doesn't remove per country limits. It raises it to 15% though (as I understand it).Quote:
Originally Posted by rupen86
http://news.yahoo.com/dems-hit-gop-i...160455883.html
Quote:
AMES, Iowa (AP) — Kicking off an August of likely intense debate over immigration, the Senate's second-ranking Democrat traveled to Iowa Friday to rebuke House Republicans who oppose major changes embraced by the Senate.
That is in family based. For EB, it removes.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard