With the latest Visa Bulletin - DOS has beaten WhereismyGC's EB2I forecast. Given that there are 3 more months to go - the dates clearly will move even further. We will update the forecast by Monday morning. Stay tuned.
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With the latest Visa Bulletin - DOS has beaten WhereismyGC's EB2I forecast. Given that there are 3 more months to go - the dates clearly will move even further. We will update the forecast by Monday morning. Stay tuned.
As promised we looked into our forecast model and have updated it at www.whereismygc.com
We think fundamentally the model is good. So we didn't update any demand data or baselines.
We believe EB2-India could be moving because of low portings from EB3-India and processing delays for EB2-ROW. Honestly -- EB2-India is so sensitive to EB2-ROW's processing times that 1 month of delay in EB2-ROW processing allows EB2-India to move almost by 2-3 months. So we suggest people try it themselves by adjusting processing times for EB2-ROW from 4 months to 12 months (and everything in between) in iForecast and see where that takes you! Our best guess at this point is DOS/USCIS will hold EB2ROW back in order to let EB2India catch up with its dates to some reasonable level. Sorry that's vague. But when agencies artificially might be introducing delays then forecasting can only try to simulate those delays. Thus we ask users to do it themselves and try to forecast.
Good luck.
The Visa Bulletin for July 2015 is out.
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...july-2015.html
This bulletin is interesting because generally this is the time where extra/unused visas start becoming available. However EB2-I is stalled and EB3-I moved by a few weeks while EB3 Philippines became unavailable. We think these things confirm the direction and accuracy of our forecast.
We will send out a newsletter over the weekend talking about this.
Forecast Updated at www.whereismygc.com
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WhereismyGC widget FREE forecast password activated.
You can check your limited forecast FREE until June 30th.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6147#post46147
Forecast Updated.
www.whereismygc.com
It is a bit premature to talk about 2015 forecast accuracy. However in light of the September Visa Bulletin we owe this discussion to our users who must be wondering what happened.
Our original forecast for this year was May 2008. During the year, the way EB2 progressed, the way labor data came, the way EB3 progressed - we updated our forecast model. Thus our forecast ranged from May 2008 - May 2009. The real date movement came in upto Oct 2008. Which was within our range but it does not make us very happy. Our EB3-I forecast also came short by almost 10 months. We thought Oct 2005 should be reached but it only hit Dec 2004.
What it clearly means is
A) EB2-I did not receive any SOFAD whatsoever.
B) EB3-ROW did not yield as much SOFAD to EB3 either.
So the question is - how this may have happened? Since hind sight is 20/20 we tried changing some of the parameters and then forecast and were able to replicate those results.
We reduced the 485 processing time from 24 months to 20 months for EB3ROW and from 7 months to 4 months for EB2-ROW. For EB3ROW a very high processing time made sense since DOS moved dates faster to generate demand but still were not able to get enough ready cases to assign a visa number. The only way this could happen is if EB3ROW demand was almost non-existent or USCIS is experiencing significant delays in 485 processing for EB3ROW. We chose latter. Same thing with EB2. Thus we have now adjusted those parameters to losely align with realities.
We hope this answers at least some questions some of you may have. We will be able to give you a much better picture once the Oct inventory is published (sometime Nov/Dec). The fact USCIS did not at all publish Q3 485 inventory also hurt our ability to forecast. But we are still glad that we did not miss huge.
We are already past the conventional wisdom of 5-6 years to GC for EB2-I. That rule is out the window for sure. For EB3-I there never was any rule. Thus WhereismyGC while not 100% perfect is a good tool for backlogged candidates to understand the forecast. Our forecast is undoubtedly the best on internet bar none. We will continue to work for you.
p.s. - The current date for EB2-I as of Sep VB is Jan 2006 and it is meaningless. People shouldn't be discouraged because typically DoS will move the date to a place where the total EB2I demand would be around 300. That's all you can conclude from it. Thus the real backlog would be ahead of Oct 2008 (or even May 2009)!
www.whereismygc.com
The header updated. We will continue to update it occasionally throughout the year.
Congratulations to all those who can file 485 next month.
To celebrate this please accept this Free access code for WhereismyGC forecast.
The code is nbc6jTOfvM
Please use the tool at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/content.php?tabid=73
Header updated.
Forecast updated at www.whereismygc.com
Just was punching random dates in 2007 and 2008 in EB3I..., tool forecasts that older PDs will become current later than the newer PDs. Issue with a tool or user error ;-) ?
Dear User,
Thank you for the feedback. The FREE Widget tool available on Qesehmk.org is not always synched up with the latest forecast. We have synched it up now. You can check again.
Hope this helps. Pl feel free to let us know if you have other questions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by greenback
We are setting WhereismyGC for USCIS year 2016. It will be completed before Oct 7th. Thank you for your patience.
Until then - the forecast is going to be unstable .
I just checked the whereismygc tool...Things dont seem good for EB2...My priority date is May 25 2011..As per tool should get GC by 2025...:(
Not sure if it will ever happen..
Today is the first day of USCIS year 2016. The tool is using 2016 quota but still looking at 2015 inventory. We need to create a new estimate of current inventory. That is why the forecast could be outrageous. The tool will be ready for predictions for USCIS year 2016 latest by Oct 7th.Quote:
Originally Posted by cool_dude
However generally speaking EB2 I and EB3 I are increasingly converging in terms of the time to GC because the traditional visa sources of EB2-I are drying up (viz. EB1 EB2ROW and EB5).
You might as well look up and read the stars. That tool, like every other, wildly moves back and forth (mostly forth!). At one time, Apr 2014 was my "realistic or average" scenario; today June 2017 is the "optimistic" date, while the "average" date is 2019!!Quote:
Originally Posted by cool_dude
I don't blame them: they are doing the best with the flawed data they have from USCIS. When data are wrong, no forecast can be meaningful.
Dear nbk1976 - Thanks for your comments. We hear you. Let us help you understand the strength and limitations of WhereismyGC's simulator. If there is more followup required - we will move this discussion to WhereismyGC's thread because we dont want to hijack this particular thread.
WhereismyGC is obviously much better than astrology - but it is even better than a model based forecasting tool. Model based forecasting - e.g. trying to predict price of wheat next year based on rainfall this year - work when the input factors are limited and good inputs are available. But when attempting to forecast a very fluid and ambiguous situation - e.g. understanding congestion of airplanes at an airport - can't be achieved quite well using models. Immigration falls in this second category because not enough information is available and there are quite a few moving parts.
So whereismygc deploys a simulators that works on input data. This is a huge improvement on spreadsheets because it allows to adjust for many factors that a spreadsheet can't. A bad input data can skew the forecast even more in a spreadsheet than in a simulator. So a simulator is better than a spreadsheet any day.
Now let us address Swings and a general trend of delayed approved timelines - that you raised.
EB-I has huge demand and the supply is not even 20% of the demand - thus making an acute problem even more acute every year. The only remedy has been extra visas from other categories. Even slight variations in other categories can significantly impact EB-I's prospects. That causes these swings in the short term. We keep adjusting the forecast based on the latest understanding of how many visas are being consumed in other categories. unfortunately we have to infer such information. We wish DoS published such information on a weekly basis. They must know who they gave a visa to - every day!
The degeneration of GC timelines for EB2 is a very significant and true trend. EB2-I's prognosis is becoming worse because as the economy picks up we see very healthy demand across other categories. Our predictions merely reflect that reality.
We know that - people don't like it. But we would be doing a disservice to you if we took your money and showed you a false picture. Like this blog - WhereismyGC's forecast aims to help immigrants make better decisions by providing them realistic information about green card wait times.
We leave the politics and advocacy to others. In fact we hope - those engaged in advocacy use this information to make realistic goals for advocacy.
Hope this helps.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nbk1976
WhereismyGC is now ready with 2016 forecasting.
The next and best update will happen when Oct 2015 485 inventory is published. That would be sometime in Nov or Dec - depending on when USCIS publishes it.
Here is an example of why forecast keeps changing.
Quote:
From: xxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, October 02, 2015 10:07 AM
To: WhereismyGC <help@whereismygc.com>
Subject: Re: WhereismyGC is now setup for 2016
Hi,
Your tool shows there are ~9000 applicants ahead of me. ( PD June 29,2009 , EB2I ). Per the pending inventory released on July 20, 2015, it was around 6500. Why did the number go up? I would have thought it would have gone down by a little but did not expect it to go up.
Could you please provide some stats on this? Appreciate it.
Thank you !!
Quote:
Hello XXXX,
The reason is we are assuming 2200 new porting cases from EB3 to EB2 for 2004-2007 EB3 India. All these people now get ahead of you in the line.
The rest difference is due to where we thought we would end year 2015 vs where we think now we ended it.
Hope this helps.
Regards,
Team WhereismyGC
We are glad to announce that now onwards ALL users of WhereismyGC.com will receive FREE forecast.
To avail - simply sign up FREE at www.whereismygc.com
If you want to see the detailed forecast you can optionally buy paid forecast plan.
note: WhereismyGC reserves the right to remove the free forecast anytime without notice.
We are still not done with uploading the 485 inventory data and hence the system is under maintenance. Expect to complete this by tonight.
Our apologies to all users. As a result we will issue a 50% off on daily plan for next 2 days.
WhereismyGC forecast is updated based on new 485 inventory. We are sorry for the delay.
Please accept 50% off on a day plan. The code is "SORRY". It expires on Thursday.
20% off on Day and Week plans.
Promo Code - HAPPYDIWALI
Expires Nov 15th.
www.whereismygc.com
WhereismyGC.com will be down for maintenance until Saturday evening. Qesehmk.org might also be impacted.
We are constantly trying to improve in order to serve you better. As part of our efforts to improve our offering we have recently lowered the price of our monthly as well as annual plan. We have eliminated the day and week subscription options and introduced and a 6 month or semi-annual plan to give you better value for your money.
We hope you like our improved and more valuable offerings. What is better is you can still benefit from the 50% off. Just use the code CHRISTMAS.
Yesterday we had an interesting conversation with one of our users (JDoe). In the interest of broader userbase we would like to disclose the general details without disclosing personal data of the user.
JDoe was concerned that WhereismyGC forecast for EB2-I was too pessimistic and JDoe needed to make decision on whether to pursue GC at all. His wife recently started on F1. Children are getting older and JDoe is concerned them aging out.
While helping him through the forecast and what is driving the forecast - both of us uncovered an interesting thing.
We discovered that at some point of time EB3-India dates might move ahead of EB2-India. In other words - if things proceed as they seem to be - then soon EB3-India folks might start receiving green cards faster than EB2-India.
This sounds counter intuitive but the data we have today supports this. Thus we advised him that he may want to consider downgrading to EB3 should such scenario materialize. He already talked to his lawyer and the lawyer confirmed this can be done in his case.
The primary driver of this is the simple fact that EB3ROW has moved so fast forward that it has created real potential of good spillover to EB3. And across all countries most people today prefer to file EB2. So EB3 doesn't really have that solid demand in the out years as EB2 does.
Something to consider ....
Published in the general interest of people.
That is what I been thinking...But will have to see actual EB3 spillover and impact of it to be sure..Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygc
Visa bulletin is published.
https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...uary-2016.html
We have waited quite some time for DoS as well as DHS to release 2015 visa consumption by country and category. Both agencies have not yet released the data for Employment based categories. Few days back DoS released waiting list data for overseas / counselor processing. We made one update last week - however - based on the visa bulletin just released we think it is necessary to make an update to our model based on some assumptions on visa consumption during 2015.
This update is not perfect but it positions us well for 2016. Please read the commentary at www.whereismygc.com to learn the details of the update.
Hi,
I have the same question but PD is DEC-2013. I would appreciate to know whats is the guesstimate year for DEC-2013 to be current.
Appreciate a reply.
Consider purchasing the WhereismyGC subscription or one day use (if still offered) to see the forecast. Beyond that all the data and analysis in on this thread. Please don't tl;dr the effort put in to this.
Happy Indian Republic Day to all.
Dear Users,
We were founded precisely because we saw how lack of good information leads to heightened expectations followed by crestfallen mood of backlogged candidates. Today after the release of 485 inventory we sense the same crestfallen mood among backlogged candidates.
The 485 inventory shows EB3-I not receiving a single extra visa during Q1 of 2016. All other categories seem to be expanding inventory. So before people jump to wrong conclusions - let us tell them that 485 inventory is like a snapshot of an airport. It tells you how many people are at the airport at a point in time. It doesnt tell you how many came and went. So do not read too much into 485 inventory.
This year should turn out good for EB3 and not much good for EB2. Our tool is not perfect but we guarantee you that it is fruit of 5 year labor and it predicts GC forecast darn good for a majority of people. So we are going to shamelessly go ahead and say - subscribe today to annual membership. It will be money well spent. It wont give you green card. But at least it will give you a good sense why it is taking so long.
We wish you the best regardless.
Thanks & Regards,
Team WhereismyGC
www.whereismygc.com
We have updated the forecast based on latest 485 inventory, as well as latest PERM data.
We will update the commentary by Sunday morning.
The forecast commentary is now updated as well.
Maybe be it's just me but I don't see anything on the Commentary tab. I tried logging off and logging in again but no luck...Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygc
Mobile browsers don't support tabs. Are you accessing from mobile? If so please use desktop/laptop.Quote:
Originally Posted by cancer24