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Since hes talking about a cutoff for EB 2 WW that means theres not going to be any spillover right? So hes correct in saying that EB 2 I will not move even by a single day throughout the year. Whats going to happen is this I think - Just like Fy 2011 - the date will not move until July 2013. If at that time we get spillover then the dates will move into 2007 as hes saying.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
GhostWriter,Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
As I have already said, I find it quite difficult to gauge EB2-WW demand from the available information.
I would suggest that the TR might be >1.
Since EB2-WW is generally Current, the Demand Destruction factor is going to be a lot lower than for Countries that are retrogressed.
Yeah, but the long term shift is what scares me - EB2I is very quickly morphing into EB3I, exactly as I had feared. This is just proof of that. With ROW demand where it is and the long backlog of EB3I, non-porting-EB2I is barely going to have any allocation left over.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Don't disagree and if ROW demand rises, this may well be the case - but I doubt it'll take a year. But my point was that EB2-I is NOT EVEN MOVING thanks to porting. And I think CO still doesn't know what the exact porting numbers are...I don't know why one of the attorneys hasn't asked what % of EB2I has gone to porting in the past x months/years.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
He doesn't. The information is unknown.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
CO has said previously that neither USCIS or DOS keep track of those numbers. The best he can do is guesstimate, which he did in a previous communication. His "guesstimate" was so high that it is difficult to take it entirely seriously. He really doesn't know.
Just found this on cilawgroup:
http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/...tober-24-2012/
One thing to note is in the article it says these are short term predictions. So I think these may change next year and EB2 I could move. Looking at the demand data of 1100 ( and that also includes most of the interfilings from may to oct) its difficult to see what CO is saying. also the 1100 is before 2006 so all of that is not before 2004 sept. I still think EB2 I will move after 4-6 mos
sandeep11
Thanks, this was posted sometime ago.
All,
I do not understand why EB3-EB2 porting especially for EB3I-EB2I is being just a gamechanger now. I am not denying that as EB3I with PD in 2004-2006 gets more experience, they would port and therefore porting would GRADUALLY increase, which is fine.
What is not understood is : Is there EXPONENTIAL increase in porting that we are worried here?
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandeep11
Guys,
I read the report from CO and he has not provided any new information. We all know that he is going to allocate 200 odd visas to EB2I until later next year. We also know that porting is high. We also know that EB2WW and EB5 usage has increased. The only other factor is, we don't know how the past trend will hold up. A lot depends on economy. Even if economy sneezes a bit (which I don't want), we will have a lot less filings in EB2 WW and porting will reduce leading to more spillover. There are just so many variables that without latest inventory and accurate future usage, we can only guess. Since CO does not know future trends, he is guessing too.
Remember, he is the same person who told us that he will try to bring the dates forward to 2010 by this time. It hasn't happened. There is no cause for worry. I do believe we will get a healthy spillover as economy is not chumming along for any non-tech related field (source of most EB2-ROW visas) and when economy nose dives EB1 and EB5 filings take a hit too. On the other hand, it is great cause of worry as it affects many of our jobs directly. Cross your fingers and hold on to your job. You may just get lucky.
Based on CO comments, I think this forum might be severely underestimating porting.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
I'm not sure many people use that low a figure - I certainly don't.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
I thought the estimate here was only 3-5k porting?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Given the number of H1B filing last 2 years, future will bring back normalcy- IMHO
Also with 2004 being PD for EB2 as of now, less incentive for porters as of immediate.
My guess is that Mid 2008 is still possible this FY for Eb2-I
Afterwords who knows---
Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
CO comments are based past 6 months usage May-October 2012. He will come with a totally different theory than what he is saying now after 6 months.
We can only wait for Inventory reports from USCIS and keep on guessing.
EB2I movement depends on how much EB2WW is going to consume between Jan-Jun2013.
This just means you'll get US citizenship (if you want it) a year latter than initially though. I realize that GC lifts the weight off peoples shoulders but having EAD/AP is just as good in the short term. I don't want this to become a discussion about merits or otherwise of GC and EAD but my point is don't freak out if the situation is bleak.
Focus on things that you can control (lobbying?) and on things that are important in life (family, health, etc.)
I agree it's not the most rosy picture for EB2-I but CO's prediction of EB2-I cut-off dates to hover around late 2007 and early 2008 at the end of FY13 is not that different from Spec's original prediction a month or two back (please correct me, if I am wrong here) where the expected date was supposed to be around end of 2007. As indicated in Spec's later post, nothing is mentioned about EB4 and it can throw surprises either way.Quote:
Originally Posted by IsItWorthTheTrouble
I have a very basic question. CO is saying he may need to have a cutoff on EB2 ROW in summer. Now if thats the case then how and where would EB2I get extra visas from? If theres a cutoff for EB2 ROW then how can extra visas filter down to EB2IQuote:
Originally Posted by pch053
The other alternative is that EB2-WW is given a Cut Off Date towards the end of the year because, as last year, CO has allocated extra visas to EB2-I and total numbers available to EB2 run out.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Otherwise, it means EB1/EB2-WW will use in excess of 74.4k visas.
Leaving EB4 aside, EB5 won't provide any spillover to EB1 according to CO, so EB1 will only have 40k visas. At the same time, CO is saying EB1 will remain Current, so that number is sufficient.
In that case, EB2-WW would have to use at least 34.4k visas to be retrogressed, even if EB1 provided no spillover to EB2. I guess that scenario is just about possible, given the fall through from last year.
In that case, EB2-I would only have 2.8k visas available - a number that wouldn't allow EB2-I to remotely approach even 2007 IMO.
I would still say that is an unlikely scenario.
Nothing new, same info (prediction) Q has been preaching for some time now.Quote:
Originally Posted by yank
Friends,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
From this murthy post and what gurus have said, looks like there is no chance of my PD (EB2I Apr08) being current again in 2013 fiscal yr.
I'm changing my job to somewhat similar code - SE to BA - 15-1132 to 15-1121). Employer will be extending my H1 (lawyer suggestion, as backup, in case of any AC21 issues)
I don't think it's worth letting big opportunities go just like that. I'll keep the forum posted.
-Mohan
Q,
I hesitate to ask this question and I know you had earlier provided related info on this topic. I would like to know realistic chance of getting GC. PD is in Jan 08. Have to take few important carrier decisions and don't want to take a chance through AC21.
Would appreciate your response.
Yank - my take is 100% within 1 years. 20% within 6 months (i.e. assuming quarterly spillover kicks in). All the best!Quote:
Originally Posted by yank
Hey All Gurus
My PD - 05/14/2008 - EB2 I
Can i expect my GC in the 1st Qtr of 2014 Fiscal Year?
I have few questions about using EAD , Im still on H1 - calid till Sept 2014
1. If i use EAD, do i have to be employed and run payroll every month?
2. If i Renew EAD in Dec 20th - 120 days before it expires Apr 20th, can i use EAD from Jan 1st ?
3. I am planning to get to EAD from Jan 2013 and be with employer only, until i get GC. Is that an issue?
4. After Getting GC do i have to work for Employer if completed 1 yr on EAD with employer?
5. If my current contract ends 2-3 mons before i get my green card, can i just be without working for those months or take vacation to india and still be able to get GC without paystubs for those 3 mons?
I have updated header with general guidance for all interested in GC. Will add analysis later this week.
It is possible that you will get your GC in Q1 2014 but that is dependent on how CO wants to manage it.Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingGC2013
1. Yes you do. You EAD is not a GC. You run a risk of a RFE and not having requisite docs.
2. You can use your current one and then switch to the new one (btw if you are not changing employers why are u switching from H1 to EAD?)
3. No issue there
4. Your EAD has nothing to do with GC. You can work on your H1 or EAD and quit any time after your GC.
5. See #1.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
So i looked at the data posted by you earlier about spillovers and I guess in 2010 EB2 ROW used more that 34400. So thats possible again right? Was there something special about that year? Also whats your opinion that if theres no spillover how much would EB2 I move considering your knowledge about porting. My PD is Feb 2005. Any idea from you would be great
I'm not aware of anything special about FY2011 off hand. FY2010 was a little below average and the combination of the two was about average.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
In FY2012, EB2-WW were retrogressed for 3 months, so in FY2013, potentially EB2-WW approvals can be a normal year's worth plus the additional 6-7k who could not be approved in FY2013 due to retrogression.
For that reason, it may be difficult to get any spillover from EB2-WW this year and in a worse case scenario EB2-WW would actually use any spillover from EB1.
Even in a zero spillover scenario, which at this time I don't actually think will happen, the Cut Off Dates should still move past Feb 2005 at some point. The trick would to get approved while they remain so.
EB2-ROW - another view- As the retroressed Eb2-Row caught up in the frist month itself- clearing the backlog and also meeting the current demand, it is more than likely that they may give a good spill over
What about inventory? - If it drops to less than a good number, is there a chance for making dates progress again >2010 (in FY2014) to get more inventory?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks for your reply. We will have to see EB1 usage this year to see how much fall down it gives. I had one more question which is bothering me. The Demand data pre 2007 which fell from 1350 to 1100. does that contain the iterfiling requests made between may and oct when the dates were U. Or those will be added now
Wouldn't any spillover from EB1 go to most retrogressed country, India? I thought spillover is only based on priority date.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I was reading up on the visa statistics for the past years and see that a couple of years - 2009 and 2010 EB1 actually used 41000 visas. Thats a bummer. I guess 2013 is building out to be a perfect storm. EB1 demand is high so will most likely consume its quota. EB5 - theres going to be a COD. EB2 WW due to fall through from last year may consume or exceeed its quota. So with this are there any other places from where visas can be spilled overto EB2 I? I hope I am wrong somewhere here but looks like this year theres going to be no spillover. With no SO we are left to the unknowns of demand pre 2004 and so can easily see dates not moving at all. But whats more concerning is that this looks like a long term trend and hence EB2 I will get only 2800 visas for the next few years. Gurus - please correct me if I am wrong with my analysis.
Can you also check how many Eb2-ROW visas were given out on 2009/10/11?
This might give us a clue?
Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
There are too many unknowns. Take it easy. As long as EBWW is current, we really won't know how far the dates will progress.(it may move a lot, it may not move at all) It's anybody's guess.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
I think it's fairly safe to say dates will progress to dec2007. The big variable is porting. Ironically, this time last year,the gurus were predicting dec2007 to mar2008.
Agree vizcard. Last year that prediction actually was spot on - except that we assumed FIFO but CO approved 1/3rd of 2008 EB2 cases ahead of 2007 cases.
This year - IMHO - Dec 2007 is absolute safe bet i.e 100% possibility. I would place median probability at Aug 2008.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Cant blame CO for that :) Anyway, some folks got lucky, others got shafted but it'll correct itself with time. I'm not so sure about median being Aug 2008. I'd offer that, that is a best case scenario. Personally, Id love that to be the median scenario because of my PD but realistically I'm not sure.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
So the years 2009 and 2010 when EB1 used 40000 visas EB2 ROW used 27000 and 30000 respectively and hence we got extra visas. in 2011 when EB2 ROW used more that 34,400 EB1 used 27000. So we were lucky last few years when one used more visas other was using less. Thats 100% not going to happen this year. Best case is EB1 is going to use 40000 and EB2 ROW 34400. So I really dont see any SO this year. The data is correct I may be wrong in analysis and there may be some category I am not aware of but we can say good bye to SOFAD this year from EB1 and EB2 ROW. So in that case I think dates may not move at all or based on current DD move to 2006 start.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
viz - I would absolutely blame CO for that. Simply because it is his job to ensure that people from same chargeability generally get GC in FIFO manner based on PD.
He should've easily foreseen the 2007 august cliff for EB2IC and moved dates quite early to ensure he had sufficient applications to approve if and when numbers were available. Instead he moved the dates quite haphazard.
As per Aug 2008 being a median or not - I would totally respect your opinion since we all are guessing (somewhat intelligently!). My optimism stems from the continued malaise in economy which means much lower levels of EB2ROW and possibly even EB1. This has been quite true for last 4 years and generally EB2IC have benefitted. I do agree that as economy comes back - EB2IC timelines are going to be crushed significantly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard