I think it will be what Teddy said, odds of winning lottery is 1/24 each month for Q1 approx. i.e. 250/6000.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
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I think it will be what Teddy said, odds of winning lottery is 1/24 each month for Q1 approx. i.e. 250/6000.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
That's good to know; so far I see 4 EB2-I approvals in trackitt in the 1st 2 working days of the month. 3 of them seem to be porting cases and for one person, the PD is June'07.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
I think we also need to consider 1K - 2K cases with PD up to April'07 that were not approved last year; so there might be anywhere between 7K - 8K pending cases that are approvable this month. I guess it is fair for people with earlier PDs to get approval first but there seems to be some randomness in this procedure that one has to live with.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Guys, Demand data for Nov is out. Only 2675 demand before Jan 1, 2008. This means DOS have released 5600 EB2IC quota in october itself.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Nishant, Bingo ! you were right...looks like the Nov Vb will be out on Friday or even before.Quote:
Originally Posted by rdsingh79
Since there was no fresh intake for past 3 months, 8K is ready for approval. 5000 is all they approved in Aug and Sep.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdsingh79
This could just be my paranoia but my gut feeling says this is not good news that they have released the demand data so early. This implies that they have made up their mind on the movement (or lack of it).
Regards
Nat
So does this bode well for the upcoming bulletin?Quote:
Originally Posted by rdsingh79
Demand data for Nov month does not influence Nov VB, you need to add I-485 processing time delta.
Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
To be fair its rdsingh79.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
Wov guys! I have no words. Good work rd wov.
Now this is really setting stage for BTM, what else can it be.
This demand data is for Nov VB.Quote:
Originally Posted by needid
Could you please advise the basis of your inference?Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Regards
Nat
My gut feeling is that there will be a very good movement (BTM) in Nov bulletin. I think there will be atleast 6 months movement (I wish they make it current!!)
However regarding the Demand data reduction this could be as a result of
a. DOS/USCIS decided to release the entire 5600 visa to EB2IC - Only drawback to this theory is, EB2C demand should have been 200 or 300 (since the demand was around 3K for Oct bulletin).
OR
b. These came out of FY 2011 quota
My Gut feeling is Dos will move the PD a year ahead in this point .
If i expect something and waiting nothing happens , but whenever I am away from the computer , something is happening like today's Demand data .
See skpanda's theories. In either case these are quite unprecedented steps taken, and looks like delibrate attempt to do out of ordinary tweaking.Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Nope, I dont think this is from 2011 quota, because ,the exact figure of annual allowance 5600 IC has been reduced from the demand .
Yes. my comment was in the context of OP. IMHO releasing demand data early or late does not have any influence on VB to be +ve or -ve. As they were not waiting for current(Oct) intake to determine Nov demand data, As any fresh intake does not transform into demand data as there it needs to go through 2 to 6 months pre-adj process. Intake in independent of demand at least in the beginning of FY.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Not sure, But I think this is the first time that the pending demand for India is less than China. Does this mean anything? China seems to have reduced by around only 1,700. So if it was the yearly quota of 5.6K, shouldn't both India and China been reduced by 2.8K each?
Possible but i can't explain why would India get 4K+ and China get 1.5K+?
This is not spillover that they would go by PD unless ofcourse this came out of FY 2011.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Well, its surprising that it came down to 2675 from 8000 for EB2 IC. IMHO it is good news. Even if we expect 3K applications for the 3 month movement from last VB, DOS has to take in a lot more applications if they stand true to their word of pipeline building. I am hoping the next VB would be the actual BTM i.e end of Dec 2007.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
I also hope and wish they do the BTM atleast until the end of 2007. The big question remains: Will they continue to build the pipeline or do they have any other random plans.
It is better to be cautiously optimistic to avoid disappointment later.
We have two more days to pass (assuming they release it on Fri). Let us hope and pray for the best.
Agree with you. It looks like the demand deduction is according to PD wise. Good point
Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
I have one basic question.Quote:
Originally Posted by rdsingh79
I am looking at the table for EB2. If the latest AOS filing date for EB2-I&C was August 07, how come there are 75 extra apps for C between 08 and 11 and 125 for I for the same period. Am I missing something here?
If it has been already answered in last year's post, please pardon me for my ignorance and point me to the post, if possible.
Maybe you should take a couple of days off, then :).Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
ah.. I didn't expect 3k. But Thanks to both of you for eye opener.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
okay...Fab 5... gimme/us some analysis and what to expect and what not to from this demand data and also the date projection now.... until then i cant think of anything else...
I was right about my theory how they were able to shift date in OCT after allocating all 5.6k visas to EB2 IC. DOS will have hard time to allocate spill over visas in Nov so date will remain same for Nov or can move little. In Dec they will use first Q1 spill over and able to move date till March 2008.
If date will not move in nov more than 1 months all people with PD < March 2008 should be ready for DEC. Chances are 95 % that happening in DEC.
The difference between the November DD and October DD shows the movement expected to happen in October.
The differential in numbers between China and India is roughly what would be expected if the COD moved equally in the October VB (which it did) and DOS are allocating the combined initial allocation of 5.6k in a single month.
In fact, the numbers EB2-I will actually receive is probably somewhat higher, since EB2-I has some Porting (which won't be reflected in the DD numbers).
I don't know what magic DOS pulled out of its hat to reduce EB2IC numbers compared to prior demand data.
But based on what's published, it begs the question - why shouldn't USCIS make the dates current for EB2IC. And I mean current as in TODAY. At teh least there is nothing in demand data that prevents them from making it current.
p.s. - If the numbers are true, it dramatically improves 2011 SOFAD by 6-7K to a total of 37K.
wow wow wow...Q... r u serious? BTM or MKCK ( maa ki!!!!...current kardo)?????Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q, any info from your src? Just wondering.
You are correct the demand data is indeed very interesting. Any how they are committing large numbers to October approvals. I agree with you that the demand data math does not work out perfectly for India and China in terms of reductions, it maybe a case of applications being denied or abandoned, just that the demand data has been cleaned up now. Chances of these being last year’s numbers is less because they announced that they are over.Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
I wish they make it current...
i am increasingly getting convinced that the Demand data reduction is from FY 2011 quota. In this case, there is nothing stopping to make EB2IC current and have peace of mind for next 4 years (No guessing/retrogession).
Good Luck to All!
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
DOS allocated all 5.6k visas on OCT , legally they can do it but they cannot assign more than 28.6 % for EB2 total in Q1, so DOS now has some 4-5k left visas and they cannot assign any or all of those to EB2 IC otherwise EB2 will get cutoff date for Dec month.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
So DOS will wait for DEC month or Jan ( I don't know if they can assign in last month of qtr or first month of next qtr ) to get some spill over from EB5 and EB1 to satisfy remaining 3k demand. It will be up to DOS to go where ever they want to go. They might have got I 140 data from USCIS or they can go based on past demand data they have and move forward.
Since we know that each month have average 1.5-2.5 k demand for EB2 I/C for 2006,2007 they will go with 2k per month and move at least 10-12 month from July 2007. Even I think if single instance of NVC receipt for Sep 2008 case was right then date will go up to Sep 2008.
I don't understand what is going on.
What Mr.CO is doing is totally unpredictable!
Sometimes he says we should get 200 per month, sometimes he says we can get 5600 per month. What is his logic behind all these?
He is a crazy man indeed!
Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Hmm.. valid point on the announcement of Visas were over mid Sept. I forgot that!Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
They have assigned 5.6k quota to EB2 IC. they can do legally but can't go more than 28.6 % of total EB2 in Q1. so Nov will hold them back marching forward. Either DEC or JAN (depend where they can allocate Qtr spillover visas , either in last month or first month of next qtr ) they will make a one shot final big move. I predict it will go all the way up to June - Sep 2008 then.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I might be wrong but my understanding from the visa bulletin is that it cannot be current and the reason is based on the following extract from the demand dataQuote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
"If the monthly allocation target is 3,000 and there is only demand for 1,000 applicants, the category will be "Current”. Whenever the total of documentarily qualified applicants in a category exceeds the supply of numbers available for allotment for the particular month, the category is considered to be "oversubscribed" and a visa availability cut-off date is established."
Apart from this what is throwing me off is this statement.
""The chart below shows the estimated total number of visas available for each employment preference category and country for fiscal year 2012."
To me it seems the demand for 2012 is only 3k for EB2IC which suggests that the demand is significantly reduced because of left overs from 2011. I guess Q is right and seems like there is an increase in SOFAD by 6-7 K.
I called my lawyer about the possibility of my PD (02/22/2008) becoming current this month. The paralegal said that they discussed the Demand Data in their meeting this morning. Her advice was along the lines of what gc_usa has stated. There is a very slim chance of it becoming current this month but it would be current by the end of Q2-2012, for sure, thereby allowing enough time the processing of the GC by the end of the FY.
Based on what I have read on this forum, I already (sort of) knew that. I felt reassured by her "professional advice" but then she dropped the bomb of uncertainty "You never know".
Back to square one.. Visa bulletin time.. keep your hopes high but be prepared for a heart break..
Is it possible that many of the labor substituions filed with June-July2007 time frame got rejected?