Did you read the bill summary at least?Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
https://goodlatte.house.gov/news/doc...ocumentID=1247
Printable View
Did you read the bill summary at least?Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
https://goodlatte.house.gov/news/doc...ocumentID=1247
I am afraid nothing is going to happen (90% sure), or at least nothing of consequence to us. There have been more optimistic moments in past few years which turned quickly to nothing. Best is to be pessimistic, and hopefully be pleasantly surprised laterQuote:
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
lol... i did. I might be current soon, but little concerned that I might lose my spot coz of "and begins a shift to a merit-based system"Quote:
Originally Posted by gten20
The bill creates a separate pool of visas for DACA and children of H-1/L-1 nonimmigrants and repeals the per country limits. It increases the annual allocation for EB visas by 65000 which should help clear the backlog. It does nor revoke any previously approved petitions. Your spot in line is preserved.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
Note: the bill has very little chance of getting out of congress.
As stated by others anything passing is being highly optimistic. Also even if some bill gets passed, why would that impact existing application that require a cancellation. The application was already file and should be considered and approved based on that. It is not in a category that is being discontinued, at best we may get greened if the country cap removed or EB4 abolished and those are allocated to other employment categories.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
I've still yet to see a post that properly summarises the Compromise Bill (H.R. 6136 Border Security and Immigration Reform Act of 2018) Employment Based provisions.
Here's how I see it.
a) Per Country limits are abolished from FY2019.
There's a lead in such that the 2 highest users of visas (India And China) can receive:
85% of total EB allocation in FY2019
90% of total EB allocation in FY2020
90% of total EB allocation in FY2021
Within those numbers, no single country can receive more than 85% of the total available. i.e. India = 85% of 85%, 85% of 90%.
Therefore the maximum of the total visas available to EB that a India could receive is:
72.25% of total EB allocation in FY2019
76.5% of total EB allocation in FY2020
76.5% of total EB allocation in FY2021
For China, it would be:
12.75% of total EB allocation in FY2019
13.5% of total EB allocation in FY2020
13.5% of total EB allocation in FY2021
Within the 15%, 10%, 10% reserved for all other Countries in the first 3 years, no single Country can receive more than 25% of the total available.
This translates to:
3.75% of total EB allocation in FY2019
2.5% of total EB allocation in FY2020
2.5% of total EB allocation in FY2021
From FY2022 onwards there are no limits as to how many visas a single Country may use within the overall allocation.
b) The Bill also increases the number of visas available to EB1 to EB4, beginning in FY2020.
For each of EB1 to EB3, this translates to:
59,740 in FY2020
60,040 in subsequent FY.
The Numbers
Putting this all together, the numbers per category are (assuming that India will use all the number it is allowed to).
FY2019
Total allocation ----- 40,040
Top 2 Countries ------ 34,034
India ---------------- 28,929
China ----------------- 5,105
All other Countries --- 6,006
Max to single Country - 1,502
FY2020
Total allocation ----- 59,740
Top 2 Countries ------ 53,766
India ---------------- 45,701
China ----------------- 8,065
All other Countries --- 5,974
Max to single Country - 1,494
FY2021
Total allocation ----- 60,040
Top 2 Countries ------ 54,036
India ---------------- 45,931
China ----------------- 8,105
All other Countries --- 6,004
Max to single Country - 1,501
Total over first 3 years per Category
Total allocation ---- 159,820
Top 2 Countries ----- 141,836 (88.75%)
India --------------- 120,561 (75.44%)
China ---------------- 21,275 (13.31%)
All other Countries -- 17,984 (11.25%)
Max to single Country - 4,497 (2.81%)
Total over first 3 years for EB2 & EB3 combined
Total allocation ---- 319,640
Top 2 Countries ----- 283,672 (88.75%)
India --------------- 241,122 (75.44%)
China ---------------- 42,550 (13.31%)
All other Countries -- 35,968 (11.25%)
Max to single Country - 8,994 (2.81%)
It should be pretty clear (if the numbers are equalized between the categories by porting) what the situation is after the first 3 years have passed, what happens in years 4 and 5 and finally the outlook moving forward from then.
House overwhelmingly rejects both immigration bills this afternoon.
Difficult for anything to pass this yearQuote:
Originally Posted by bluelabel
I concur. Wait until November 2018 for Democrats in House and Senate to get squashed big time in Mid term elections. A Big Red wave is coming to oust Democrats and Trump will prevail. When it happens, any immigration bill with four pillars of reform will pass. Go Trump. It's time to MAGA.Quote:
Originally Posted by newyorker123
It is amazing how people root for someone so vile, not to mention against self interest. If mid terms doesn't halt America's march towards al that is deplorable, we can say goodbye to the world as we have known it for most of our lives.
FYI: Some of you already know this- HR 392 has been successfully added to DHS appropriation bill.
This one? Which just got approved by the committee?
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...-2019-homelan/
Any news on when it hits the House floor and what the process is from here?
To abcx13
It's hard to predict the future for appropriations bills given that the recent history of conference between the senate and the house is not great.
Briefly both the house and the senate appropriations committees consider 12 spending packages for different departments annually. The deadline to pass an agreed upon spending package by both House and Senate is September 30 because the fiscal year for the Federal Government is October 1.
The House has passed HR 6157 (Defense Appropriations) on 6/28/2018 and sent it to the Senate.The Senate Appropriations Committee passed FY2019 Defense Appropriations Bill on 6/28/2018 but this has not come up for action on the Senate floor
So far both the house and Senate have passed their own versions of the minibus bills-combining the Energy and Water appropriations and two other regular appropriations acts (Legislative Branch and Military Construction-Veterans Affairs). However the Senate and House versions are different and will need to be reconciled in conference which is yet to happen. This is considered the easiest trio to win the needed bipartisan approval in the Senate.
The senate homeland security appropriations committee passed its own version of the bill out of committee on 6/21/2018 and placed it on the senate calendar. As you already know the House committee passed its own version today including the HR 392 provision which is not in the senate Bill. In response to your question the House has to pass its version on the Floor followed by the Senate passing its version and reconciling them in conference. The House starts its recess tomorrow and does not return till September 4 after Labor Day. Any action on this Bill and all other appropriations Bills will have to wait till then. The Senate has decided to cancel most of its August recess for the Supreme Court confirmation and also to address the funding bills.Interestingly the Senate did not pass any appropriations bills in 2017 for FY 2018. Usually none of these bills are passed and a continuing appropriations resolution to continue funding at current levels is what results in September. President Trump has refused to sign any more Omnibus Bills but it is hard to see so many appropriations packages passed by both chambers and reconciled in conference before Sept 30.
In 2017 the House committee reported Homeland security appropriations package on 7/18/2017 but it never saw a vote on the House Floor. We will continue to remain in hope as always
PS-I apologize for the long winded answer but there was a lot of information to offer
Very informative post - thanks!Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
To suninphx
As a sidelight to all of this Sen.McConnell and Speaker Ryan met with President Trump today and likely decided to defer the DHS spending fight till after the elections where its fate becomes even more murky
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/...hutdown-741266
Thank you - very thorough, informative and helpful reply! Appreciate the insight.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
Chinese EB5 Investors suing the US government for incorrectly counting dependents in the quotas.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...dress-Pressing
https://twitter.com/David_J_Bier/sta...97453783814144
I'd love to see this succeed, but I think it is a long shot, particularly given the current climate.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
I had a look at this many years ago and history suggests that Congress intended the current situation where dependents are counted against the numerical limits.
This is from memory, but the essential facts are correct.
Back in 1990, the House and Senate came up with separate Bills with differing content, which then had to go through the Reconciliation process.
One Bill (the House one, I think), proposed an EB allocation of c.70k which explicitly did not count dependents.
The other Bill, proposed an EB allocation of 140k which explicitly counted dependents.
After reconciliation, the final Bill had an allocation of 140k for EB, without any explicit language either way.
It's not really credible that Congress decided to double the number of visas available to EB during the reconciliation talks, when each of their individual proposals resulted in broadly the same number.
The final figure strongly suggests that the intent was to include dependents, but the explicit language was missed in the redrafting of the hybrid reconciliation Bill.
I wish it were otherwise. It would solve virtually all the current problems of visa numbers.
Addendum
A pro piece Why We Can’t Wait: How President Obama Can Erase Immigrant Visa Backlogs with the Stroke of A Pen by Gary Endelman and Cyrus Mehta also mentions this situation (see section with footnote [8]).
The antis are certainly aware of it. I really don't like linking to an organization like this, but it explains the argument and has the actual figures in greater detail.
Could Obama Increase Immigration By Not Counting Family Against Visa Caps?
The articles are a bit of a read, but they do give the background to the issue.
It's certainly the counter argument that this lawsuit will come up against.
To abcx13
Thanks for the comments. It was a long post because it was hard to balance objectivity with negativity. We have come a long way from the exuberance of the HR 3012 introduction in the fall of 3012 (yes that was 7 years ago!). There have been so many false starts since then that most of the members of the forum here have shrugged at the news and moved on to the regular discussions on the EB thread. It seems to be the correct decision as any action on the DHS bill is at least not till October if at all. I spoke too soon yesterday when I was more optimistic about the first minibus bill which is the least controversial. The conference negotiations have run into snags and is postponed to September after the recess. The senate was supposed to have passed it's own minibus consisting of four bills but have been postponed till next week due to issues with amendments. This in itself is not an issue as the house is away on recess and cannot act on it till September at the earliest. The defense bill is the most likely to pass and be signed by October 1. If the house and senate can agree on the first minibus that makes it 4 bills appropriated. The current 4 Bill package in the senate is more tricky as the house has only passed 2 of the bills and the senate is trying to attach agriculture and transportation/HUD to it which the house is yet to pass. If all the above are cleared by October 1 then the other 4 remaining agencies (including DHS) will be funded by a continuing stopgap most likely to the end of the year. In fact speaker Ryan mentioned this at the press conference today that he would go for the low hanging fruit first and fund others with a stopgap
gs,Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
I'd like to also add my thanks for a very informative post.
To S
I must reiterate that this attachment to the DHS spending bill offers the best chance for the HR 392 provisions to become law although it is still a long way off. The future will depend on how much progress is made on reconciling the other agencies' appropriations packages. The numerous amendments attached to the house DHS package has already come under fire from the usual culprits for using appropriations Bills to rewrite immigration laws (CIS,NumbersUSA,Breitbart,FAIRus etc). At yesterday's press conference Speaker Ryan seemed to suggest that the House and Senate could potentially send 6-8 appropriations packages to the President before funding runs out on Sept 30. If DHS is not included in this (which is most likely) it could be continued to be funded by a CR (continuing resolution) till an agreement is reached. CRs are also tricky.Generally most of them are clean and keep funding at current levels till a set date so modifying them to include other provisions becomes controversial. On the other hand if very few appropriations packages are passed before Sept 30 then an omnibus Bill becomes more likely which would be a single Bill that encompasses all the departments and just by virtue of its size and scope is difficult to negotiate finer points and almost all provisions are included. This will mean that HR 392 will get bundled into a vast Bill and get through. Interestingly when the Omnibus package was passed in May 2017 Congress used the 11 unfinished appropriations Bills from 2016 as a basis. However if one or more chambers change hands this fall the dynamics will change.
Hello Everyone
For those who are banking on HR 392 to be passed, here is an interesting development. HR 392 was passed an amendment to FY2019 DHS Spending bill on July 25 and has to go through the House and Senate. Both chambers of Congress has 10 days to pass this bill to avert a government shut down.
"An Alarming Development – Country of Origin Ceilings Partly Scrapped in Appropriations Bill"
https://cis.org/North/Alarming-Devel...priations-Bill
Senator Yoder's amendments and addon of HR 392 to the spending bill are in page 23 of the link below. This bill has come a long way and pray it solves all of our problems.
https://www.nationalreview.com/wp-co...amendments.pdf
The fact that HR392 has come this far itself is a great achievement. I wish for the best as it is only fair. I will be jumping in joy if DT signs it.Quote:
Originally Posted by altek001
There are still a lot of obstacles. The HR392 language has best chance to pass when the DHS appropriations bill is grouped into a miniBus with other appropriations (there is no OmniBus this year). There cannot be amendments to a minibus and nobody can strip out the language.
If this is not added to a minibus, the following bad things can happen. The senate already said that they want to punt the wall funding (5 billion in Yoder bill + HR392) to after November. This means the senate will likely take out the HR392 component plus $5B from their bill and pass in the senate.
Then the bill will go into conference committee. There is a good chance of Yoder losing his reelection in Kansas and there won't be sufficient representation to speak FOR this bill in conference. Then magically nothing else happens (again) for the EB community.
Francis Cissna on Removal of Per country Caps.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L25NkKOoA40
That was posted by a paki. Republicans want to remove the DV Visa category and implement merit based immigration. Why would they want to stick to diversity in Employment based immigration?Quote:
Originally Posted by altek001