EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

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Originally Posted by gc_soon

Hi Teddy,
It seems like CO is moving dates based on 250 per month. But even then, we should have seen dates still move (maybe by few months). Do we still have 250 more cases before Sep 2004 (after 250 that got or will be approved in Oct). Looks like porting is killing all the monthly quota.

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Some people have pointed out that the demand data did reduce by 250 however the dates did not move. The only explanation is that the agencies still feel that 250 porting cases can still come up before Sep 2004 with new porting related i140's being approved and interfiling. So essentially its a case of a moving target with the demand data reduction not being able to truly represent the situation. Unfortunately this will keep going on for a few months till the May - Jul. This actually is the default mode of operation (Very Conservative Movement) what we saw last year was an exception as an inventory had to be created. The big silver lining of this bulletin is that EB2 ROW is now current. Porting has not really increased however last year probably only 50% porting cases saw approval due to dates going to unavailable.

The Demand Data provide a good hint of how much porting is going on:

EB3I fell by 425. EB-3I before 2003 dropped by 175 - if you assume all of these were "charged" to EB3, then the difference 425-175 equals 250.

Therefore there is a minimum of 250 porting cases being approved for EB3 I

One caveat: EB3 ROW dropped by 1275 before 2007, but only by 1200 before 2012. This means applicants may be adding dependents (such as follow to join) or 2007 cases are being preapproved even at this late date. The same may be happening on EB3 I, which would "mask" the true size of porting.

Q/ Spec/ Gurus ,

Exactly what month or range of months do we predict EB2-India to reach or cross Dec 07

My opinion is that if December 2007- when it comes will take the dates up to atleast mid 2008 at one shot. MY guess is January/February 2013

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Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07

Q/ Spec/ Gurus ,

Exactly what month or range of months do we predict EB2-India to reach or cross Dec 07

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Are we expecting Quarterly Spill beginning second quarter ?

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Originally Posted by bvsamrat

My opinion is that if December 2007- when it comes will take the dates up to atleast mid 2008 at one shot. MY guess is January/February 2013

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Sportsfan - none of the EB3 dates have even reached 2007 yet, let alone 07/07. CO has months to plan and get additional inventory for EB3. While they don't seem much efficient up there, I doubt they will mess up something this predictable and well in advance. I think something like 4 months before they estimate to reach the demand cliff, they will extend PD beyond 07/07 and get enough inventory to to carry forward as usual. They might even push the dates far beyond 07/07 (say 2009, 2010) so that they get enough inventory to last a couple years.

Update: Based on current inventory and burn rate of the inventory ROW (11.4K) should be the first to show movement along with C (1.4K) and M (1.2K). I and P have enough demand. Hmm... they do not have much time. Assuming a 4-6 months processing time for USCIS and a 250/month burn rate for countries and 2K/month burn rate for ROW, they need to extend PDs beyond 07/07 and accumulate inventory in next few VBs. If they fail to extend PDs in next 3 months then yes, they may reach a situation where its Sept and they need to use all the visas - but they don't have enough documentarily qualified ROW/C/M applicants. If that happens then I can see a horizontal spillover to EB3I (it could go to EB3P as well - but if its not going to ROW then it will go to I since P and I both are over the 7% limit and I has older PDs). Am I correct in assuming that P has reached the 7% limit - I do not recall top of the mind right now.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

It's a timing issue.

EB2-I faced demand cliff early in FY 2012. The dates were advanced rapidly, but the visas allocated in Q1 were still for clearing the previous backlog. Only in Q2, around February or so, were they allocating new visas. It still takes them 2 to 3 months to pick even the low hanging fruits.

I think EB3-ROW will face a demand cliff around June/July of 2013. Even if dates are advanced rapidly, there still will not be enough visas to give in the months of July to September (unless I am missing the EB3-P demand, and if the EB3-P can indeed go beyond the 2800 visas). EB3-I should receive some spillover if the demand cliff happens for EB3-ROW. And it will be very interesting to see how they move the EB3-ROW dates then - especially after they had some experiences with EB2-I. If the date movement is not aggressive enough, EB3-I will continue getting spillover.

Please shred this theory to pieces Gurus if it's a wishful fantasy.

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Shouldn't the 485 Inventory Report be out by now? Last year's report was as of Oct 1st.

So I was reading Ron's Forum and I came across the following:

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For once, the demand data is a more valuable predictor. Given the historic number of visas given to Indian EB2 applicants and the number of pending cases, I think that movement deep into 2009 this fiscal year should not be a problem.

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Obviously, people were skeptical and asked the to explain - and his explanation is something worth reading:

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Looking at historic data, the pre-2009 demand for India EB2 is about 80% of what Indian applicants get annually. Because of the age of those cases, I suspect that perhaps as many at 15 to 20 per cent of them are no longer active and will not receive visas. There will be new "upgrade" cases coming on line as priority dates advance, but keep in mind that it takes the USCIS a while to close out these types of cases. If someone has a pending I-485, the case can be closed quickly if the applicant knows what to do (which most don't) and acts promptly. For new I-485 cases that will be filed in response to cutoff dates moving forward, count on those taking between six and twelve months to get approved. Since cutoff date movement is controlled in large part by actual visa issuances (demand), I don't see these cases really having any effect on FY2013 cutoff date movement.

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It is amazing that for someone who is in the industry and has a widely read forum, he is so much off base. No consideration of the carryover EB2ROW and porting demand from last year, no discussion of increased demand from EB1 - just a blanket assertion with an arbitrary date. His explanation makes no sense and there is no way we are touching "deep 2009" in FY2012.

Link: http://www.immigration-information.c...ad.php?t=18349

@Ron's post - why would someone show up in demand data (i.e. file an I485) if they don't have an active offer?

If that is the case, the porting will reduce and hence the Eb2_I PD will move fast?

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Glad that you see the same possibility. The ROW demand has reduced and the time is running out for them to extend the PD. I see no indication that the PD will go beyond 07/07 any time soon. If the demand cliff is reach around June/July and the PD is still hovering at 07/07, then a lot of folks in EB3-I are going to be happy.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

So I was reading Ron's Forum and I came across the following:
Obviously, people were skeptical and asked the to explain - and his explanation is something worth reading:
It is amazing that for someone who is in the industry and has a widely read forum, he is so much off base. No consideration of the carryover EB2ROW and porting demand from last year, no discussion of increased demand from EB1 - just a blanket assertion with an arbitrary date. His explanation makes no sense and there is no way we are touching "deep 2009" in FY2012.
Link: http://www.immigration-information.c...ad.php?t=18349

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I think 2012 EB1 numbers are not indicative of the EB1 demand because of the delay in 140 approvals in 2011, and they all applied for 485 in 2012. I still think 2013 quota should see EB2I moving at least to May/June 2008, if not more (We know good number of people upto March 2008 already got greened). But i agree with you, going deep into 2009 is un-imaginable at this point.

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Originally Posted by sreddy

I think 2012 EB1 numbers are not indicative of the EB1 demand because of the delays in 140 approvals in 2011, and they all applied for 485 in 2012. I still think 2013 quota should see EB2I moving at least to May/June 2008, if not more (We know good number of people upto March 2008 already got greened). But i agree with you, going deep into 2009 is un-imaginable at this point.

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Any particular reasons for delays of 140 approvals in 2011 as an one off case?

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Originally Posted by gc_soon

Any particular reasons for delays of 140 approvals in 2011 as an one off case?

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Some thing internal i guess, and yes it is one off case. That's the reason 2011 saw good spillover, but effected 2012. Well 2012 had other things as well, EB1 numbers from 2011 coming into 2012 was one of them.

In what way this will help? The demand figures as we know today is what it is considering and subtracting who got GCs. Otherwise the numbers would have been more?.Isn't it?

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Originally Posted by sreddy

(We know good number of people upto March 2008 already got greened). .

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This is the conspiracy-theory-guy in my talking, but perhaps CO/DHS/USCIS realize the absurdness of EB3I PDs in 2002s (10+ year wait). If they let the status-quo go on and not get new inventory for EB3ROW/C/M this FY- then say 15K visas land into the lap of EB3I in Sept. That would take EB3I PD up by about 2.5 years to a 2004 number (8+ year wait) - which would still be infuriating but at least understandable given that EB2I has a 5+ year wait.

Of course, as we reach closer to the possibility, EB3ROW/C/M folks will raise enough stink (and rightfully so from their point of view) that this will never happen. I guess porting is the only option left for EB3I.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I do not think there will be an immediate effect. Most porting cases take several months to close, so the porting GCs that will be issued 4 to 6 months from now have been filed already.

However, going forward, there will certainly be less porting intensity if the above happened. I remember looking at the demand data and determining porting was intense in the years 2005 and 2006. The demand from these 2 years has reduced substantially already. These years are kind of any a grey zone...they have been in the system for a long time (hence they have the experience and financial means to undertake porting endeavors such as switching employers, getting an advanced degree etc.), but they are nowhere close to getting the GCs. If the PD was in 2004, porting intent will be much less for those folks.

The benefit to EB2-I will be indirect. But the overall gloom and doom would reduce a lot. If the EB3-I date were to make a quantum jump, I think it would help everyone. I really hope the cards fall this way and in absence of EB3-ROW/M demand, EB3-I gets at least 5-6K spillover.

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Originally Posted by gc_soon

Any particular reasons for delays of 140 approvals in 2011 as an one off case?

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Originally Posted by sreddy

Some thing internal i guess, and yes it is one off case. That's the reason 2011 saw good spillover, but effected 2012. Well 2012 had other things as well, EB1 numbers from 2011 coming into 2012 is one of them.

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There was the Karzarian memo which caused a lot of confusion and delays for EB1. All that spilt over into 2012. Hopefully that corrects itself.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Savvy?

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Deppfan33?

Folks - I have shifted all the posts regarding EB3 to EB2 porting and whether it is right or not in its own thread - so that we can keep the main thread clean and on focus.

You can continue the discussion here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...or-and-Against

Thanks.

Gurus - I read some data about porting and have been troubled after that. I read somewhere that CO had said that only in the month of February 2012 USCIS processed 336 applications with PD of 2005. If this is true then porting is exploding right? All these case have to be interfiling cases correct? that were tackled by USCIS in Feb. If porting is so huge then how would dates ever move? Another concern is I looked at May 2012 485 inventory and I see that EB1 usage is double than last year. So what does that mean for SOFAD? The situation looks almost hopeless to me. BTW my PD is EB2 Feb 2005 and with all this I am reading I am no hopeful about my own date. Please someone give me some hope

2005 FEB appears too old as quite a few up to 2007 were cleared early this year, unless you have ported recently or your case was held in audits etc.

But my opinion is that EB2-ROW might contribute to a very good spill over as usual and my guess in minimum 10,000 which will easliy clear dates upto early 2008. But not sure if will happen in December/January 2013 with quarterly spill over and year end spill over.

Only Gurus can explain.

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Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

Gurus - I read some data about porting and have been troubled after that. I read somewhere that CO had said that only in the month of February 2012 USCIS processed 336 applications with PD of 2005. If this is true then porting is exploding right? All these case have to be interfiling cases correct? that were tackled by USCIS in Feb. If porting is so huge then how would dates ever move? Another concern is I looked at May 2012 485 inventory and I see that EB1 usage is double than last year. So what does that mean for SOFAD? The situation looks almost hopeless to me. BTW my PD is EB2 Feb 2005 and with all this I am reading I am no hopeful about my own date. Please someone give me some hope

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Do you have a link to share about the CO's statement. He usually never gets this specific about numbers.

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Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

Gurus - I read some data about porting and have been troubled after that. I read somewhere that CO had said that only in the month of February 2012 USCIS processed 336 applications with PD of 2005. If this is true then porting is exploding right? All these case have to be interfiling cases correct? that were tackled by USCIS in Feb. If porting is so huge then how would dates ever move? Another concern is I looked at May 2012 485 inventory and I see that EB1 usage is double than last year. So what does that mean for SOFAD? The situation looks almost hopeless to me. BTW my PD is EB2 Feb 2005 and with all this I am reading I am no hopeful about my own date. Please someone give me some hope

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I don't get it. Aren't you a porter yourself? Many people like you are porting - so why are you worried about porting per se? I would be thankful for the porting option if I were in your shoes.

Now as for your case - your PD will most likely be current in December. If not, within a couple of months. I would not really worry about the PD right now. Even if many people in 2005 ported, your PD is early in the year, so I don't see why you should not be current by Dec/Jan. Spillover for your own specific case is immaterial.

Also, the inventory doesn't paint the complete picture. There could be many pending cases in the inventory at a given juncture. It's just a snapshot. The queue processes certain number of cases and the rate of approvals is what's important and that's exactly what the USCIS never reveals. Yes, the EB1 usage was high last year. We don't know what it will be this year. My gut feeling is that EB1 will yield some spillover - if lucky, it could go into 5 digits. EB2-ROW will also yield a healthy spillover despite the backlog clearance. Everything considered, I see the EB2-I dates in the later half of 2008 by the end of this FY.

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I am a porter and I am happy abt it and think that anyone who gets a chance should do it. I am just trying to make sense of this whole thing where EB2I has gone back to 2004 as unfortuanately due to a personal situation it has impacted me negatively.

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Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

I am a porter and I am happy abt it

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Duh, of course!

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Do you have a link to share about the CO's statement. He usually never gets this specific about numbers.

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imdeng,

This may be the source of the information.

It was posted in last year's thread as well.

Thanks Spec.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

imdeng,

This may be the source of the information.

It was posted in last year's thread as well.

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