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Great ! Your calculations have been remarkably accurate and may be you can comment on the EB2I cut-off date?Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
I am guessing that DOS cannot just move to 01SEP06 as that would cause only 1 month movement for EB-2C. They would probably move both move EB-2IC to 01OCT2006, to ensure enough completions in June?
Almost 3000 down for India alone. That is very reasonable. They will probably process >30k by the end of this FY. And with the anticipated large scale movement, they will carry a load of 20-30k into the next FY. Perhaps that is their goal. Now I want to see the new inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Add on porting at, say, 0.5k to give a total of 3.5k EB2-I visas assumed to be consumed in May.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
gcwait2007,
You demand data prediction was very very close.
Based on the deduction of 3K figures..can any one estimate the porting factor..?
Thanks for the exact figures. As per the Jan Inventory the May & June demand for EB2 - I was ~ 2800 and the difference between the 2 figures is 2900 this should suggest that very few new porting cases less than were there.Quote:
Originally Posted by srinivasj
Good job...how about guestimating cut off date? I know its a different beast.. but then...
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Most users ever online for this forum: Today! (05/10/11)
Past trend is that 'June month' cut off dates dont move much and normally in line with other months of the quarter (April & May). The news may be contrary to past trend.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
As I understand, there is a cut off limit for each quarter for the first 3 quarters. The spillover is calculated based on the 3 quarters and passed on to Retrogressed countries in the last quarter.
I pray to God that the news should come true and every one of us to be greened.
PS: Sorry for pouring cold water on the over heated engine.
Only true for EB, but June 2010 FB2A advanced by 13 months!Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Perhaps not true. In 2008, there was 3 months forward movement and in 2009 there was severe retrogression.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Yes it could be the case, also EB2ROW demand slightly went up from 100 to 125 for the first time since October 2010.
Is it possible to co-relate the reduction in demand with how much of the 12K excess numbers released in month of May for the movement of the dates.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Like others is there any prediction for June bulletin?
A
ifaith,Quote:
Originally Posted by ifaith
You would have seen the thread posted by Q. I have been hoping that the news comes true. However, I would also mention that past trend has been different.
There was 3K passed on to EB2 India, which includes the left over of entire quota for the year 2010-11 and some partial spill over. If there is no spill over happening in June 2011, it should continue at the current cut off date. If there is the spillover of minimum assured (from EB1), then EB2 India and China would move into Sept 2006.
I guess we will have to wait till tomorrow for any news on VB or probably tonight if Mumbai Consulate still update their website a night in advance as usual.
A bit of political satire for you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I believe the CIA call it an Enhanced Motivational Technique.
As per Arthasastra written by Kaudilya (Chanakya), it is 'sanman-dana-bheda-Dandam' for motivating a person to complete the job.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec's technique is part of Dandam :)
PS:
The strategies of 'getting things done' are:
1.Sanman - Appeasement, non-aggression pact
2.Danda - Strength, punishment
3.Dana - Gift, bribery
4.Bheda - Divide, split, separating opposition
5.Maya - Illusion, deceit
6.Upeksha - Ignoring the enemy
7.Indrajala - Faking military strength
Lol looks like everyone is in a jovial mood.Good quote gcwait and nice info.
Not to be a grammar nazi or anything ( the first technique is Sama ) . Sanman still can work because it can denote bestowing gifts. Sama is the quality of equanimity or non aggression or balance.
USCIS seems to be using all of them
1.Sama - Appeasement, non-aggression pact --- USCIS gets our hopes up once in a while with encouraging statements by Consular officers.
2.Danda - Strength, punishment------ Sure they punish us with long retrogression and head scratching data
3.Dana - Gift, bribery----------------- They will use tiny spillovers from other categories.
4.Bheda - Divide, split, separating opposition ---- Country wise quota is perfect for Bheda.
5.Maya - Illusion, deceit------------------ Smoke and mirror announcements of better processing and upgrading systems.
6.Upeksha - Ignoring the enemy----- Perfect behaviour by USCIS ...dont listen to any genuine demands for improving the system.
7.Indrajala - Faking military strength -------------- Appear before congress and state we have all the muscle required to process the numbers blah blah blah...
:):) Anywaz before someone shouts at me for diverting the topic...Keep the good spirits flowing. May tomorrow be the day for you guys with the Visa bulletin shooting all the way to April 2007.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Obama's (Whitehouse's) updates on Immigration Reforms.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/defa..._blueprint.pdf
Refer to pages 23-26
Excerpt from page 25 -
"Further, by addressing the backlogs in the employment based immigration system and reforming country caps, we can better enable immigrants to contribute to our future growth and competitiveness."
Excerpt from Page 26 -
"Making reforms to the existing employment- and family-based immigration system, including exempting immediate relatives of U.S. citizens from annual caps placed on legal immigration, and changing the categories and per country caps put in place to ensure successful high-skilled immigrants are able to remain in the U.S. permanently and U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents are able to reunite with their families more quickly;"
I know that Immigration Reforms have been on the table for a decacde or so... but things may change.
Thanks to QuintonBermuda from IV.
Immigration reform surges before every election campaign! Chances for anything dramatic happening during this term ( by 2012) is none!Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
skpanda, I think it is critical that any serious immigration reform must address country caps. They are the cause of CHRONIC backlogs. Besides they are unjust especially for people from India China.
p.s. - thanks for attributing the credit to the source.
Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
As much as the idea of immigration reform is romantic.... it is a sad truth that its a political suicide for any party to embrace it.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I agree that this new mantra of Obama is just a political posture. Just another gimmick to alienate republicans from immigrants.
However, in the wake of recent changes in political field -- republicans have much less to lose if they call BO's bluff this time around. IMHO, it'll NOT get through, but could make immigrants move to the edge of their seats.
The document lacks anything substantive and is therefore just so many words.
The only concrete proposal for EB is:
but even that doesn't say that they would be extra visas.Quote:
Encouraging foreign students to stay in the U.S. and contribute to our economy by stapling a green card to the diplomas of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM), PhDs and select STEM Masters Degrees students so that they will stay, contribute to the American economy, and become Americans over time
The only solution for EB is a substantial rise in the number of available visas, either directly, or through exempting dependants from the numerical limitations.
If that were done and previously wasted visas were recaptured to deal with the current backlog, then the per Country limitation would no longer be an issue, nor would there be a rationale for its existence.
Changing that in isolation just shifts who is backlogged, but does not reduce the total numbers going forward.
Personally, I would also scrap F3 and F4, redistributing the numbers to EB. In doing that, I would also change CSPA, so that the child's age is locked at time of submission of the I-140. That would ensure that inadvertent ageing out becomes virtually impossible and not related to retrogression or processing inefficiencies.
Well said Spec! As usual, you nailed it with your prognosis :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
It is just a personal opinion.Quote:
Originally Posted by haripathhi
It's also a very emotive subject that causes untold hurt to people running into 6 figures and people are rightly upset by the effects.
I respect people's right to have a differing opinion.
I just think we need something more than a band-aid, however appealing it might be.
If the community wants to fight for EB rights, it should be for something that benefits everybody and actually fixes the broken system.
Unity of cause will not be achieved otherwise, which is what is badly needed.
Enough of the philosophising, I have said enough. Something similar caused enough hurt last time and I have no wish to repeat it.
Guys, I have to commend the respect the forum members got for each other. I chanced upon this forum, as I was looking for EB2 predictions and there is no other outlet better than this.
Also, thank you for the member who posted an encouraging news today. Lets home the priority dates for all categories moves forward significantly.
Q, Spec or others..
There is no Demand Data or inventory after July 2007. Is there any way that we can estimate (educated guess) the EB2 cases after July 2007?
I think we can use PERM data and probably I140 to estimate this. However, I do not know where to find this information.
If anybody has already done the estimate please share it with me. Otherwise, if you can let me know where I can find the above information, I will dig in and share my analysis with this group.
Thanks in advance.
S
PS: Reason why I want this is to determine if EB2I will be current in near future (2011/12/13) assuming we will get same kind of spillover for next 2 or 3 years.
skpanda,Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
This was posted earlier but i am posting here again.
Table for EBI PD 2007 PERM approvals after July 2007 - Total 14.2k
- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010--FY2011(Q1+Q2) --Total
Jan-07 --- 30 -------22 ------ 9 ------ 1 ----- 2 ------- 64
Feb-07 --- 52 -------45 ------20 ------ 5 ----- 1 ------ 123
Mar-07 ---119 ------ 46 ------14 ------ 3 ----- 1 ------ 183
Apr-07 -- 155 ------ 79 ------36 ------ 3 ----- 0 ------ 273
May-07 -- 369 ------110 ------38 ------ 6 ----- 2 ------ 525
Jun-07 -- 493 ------283 ----- 41 ------12 ----- 2 ------ 831
Jul-07 -- 441 ------469 -----141 ------17 ----- 2 -----1,070
Aug-07 -- 561 ----- 939 -----220 ----- 52 ----- 7 -----1,779
Sep-07 ---434 ----1,606 -----245 ----- 88 ----- 6 -----2,379
Oct-07 ---793 ----1,686 -----138 -----220 ----- 4 -----2,841
Nov-07 ---328 ----1,557 ------30 -----291 ----- 4 -----2,210
Dec-07 ----76 ----1,503 ------30 -----307 ---- 12 -----1,928
Total --3,851 ----8,345 ---- 962 ---1,005 ---- 43 --- 14,206
Similarly EBC got 3.2k for 2007, so totaling 17.4k( 80% will be EB2 ~=14k) waiting with PD until DEC 2007
Thanks Veni!
I have two questions:
a. In 2007, the pending inventory ( from Jan 2011 inventory) shows more than 1000 for each of the first 6 months. Why are the PERM numbers less than 100?
b. Why do you say at the end waiting with PD until DEC 2007. I was hoping to get the demand till say end of 2010 (PD until DEC 2010).
However, The numbers look really promising. Including the family members, even if we assume the demand is 30K, its possible that EB2-I will be current in 2012/2013.
I hope DOS realizes this and makes EB2 current some time before July 2012 so that people can file for EAD/AP.
All the best to everybody for upcoming June 2011 Visa bulletin. My PD is in 2010 so no chance for me untill atleast 2012.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
skpanda,
Looks like you are mistaken on the data from the table above.
The table represents EBI PERM approvals with PDs in 2007, but approved after July 2007 and in the following years.
Please check the following link to get clear picture on EB(I&C) demand for FY2008 - FY2011(Q1+Q2)
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations
I wish you would read carefully! Veni said "Table for EBI PD 2007 PERM approvals after July 2007" So these people probably never got a chance to file I-485. So USCIS and DOS do not account for them in their demand data. etc. etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Thanks... I got the information I was looking for...so there are around 100K people who filed/approved PERM during 2007-2011 (2 quarters). Ofcourse not all of them are EB2, not all of them will file I485 and we have to consider the family factor of 2+.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Sorry.. may be I was not clear in my question. I wanted to estimate the demand after July 2007 since DOS does not have that information. I have the information.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Thanks to both of you!
S
Duplicate post
Total demand is not Promising. See the numbers below from PERM disclosure data, and PD based on Calender Year.Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
EB- INDIA
PD2007 - 14.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 23.3k
PD2009 - 16.0k
PD2010 - 21.0k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 74.5K
EB- China
PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 4.1k
PD2009 - 2.2k
PD2010 - 2.3k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 11.8K
Combined (EBI&C) Total = 86.3k (assume porting in = porting out, from this total)
At least 70.0k out of 86.3k will be EB2, you can do the math now!
Thanks! Yes.. numbers are not promising...
Wonder why people keep saying.. demand was low during 2008/2009/2010. :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
skpanda,Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
The reason is people are only looking at PERM approvals by FY and not looking at CY numbers.
Just to give you an Example: 10.3k out of 11.3k EBI PERM certifications in FY 2009 are with PD 2008!
Only couple of hours left for today, why is VB not out yet. The wait is getting longer...
Even the mumbai consulate didn't update the bulletin yesterday night :(
Singh ji...tension na lo yaara.... your's will be definitely current...Quote:
Originally Posted by hsinghjkaur
"aamachi mumbai madhye" since somebody fatfingered EB2 and made it current by mistake, DOS has stopped publishing mumbai ahead of US.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hsinghjkaur
good riddance. as if the suspense wasn't bad enough, the idiot in the consulate sure sent a few to the ER with his own bulletins.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk