EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by geeaarpee

Matt - Can this be due to the quick 485 processing happening and people (especially EB1 folks) don't even have time to update their cases in Trackitt.

When it comes to EB1 (EB1C in particular), I have seen cases who just landed in US here and before even they can figure out which is the best school district around for their kids, they had got their GC in hand. So with their busy work schedule (LOL!) and the limited time they have to spend in Zillow and other sites to buy home/Land, I don't think they might have had time to update their cases in Trackitt - for that matter, not many EB1C knows Trackitt either, forget about Q's Blog (no offense here, just a funny note!)

---

Trackitt generally have only EB1 Indian cases, the other cases are very few. So using just trackitt for EB1 will not help us. The number of Indian cases also may have come down in trackitt due to general negative sentiments around misuse of EB1C. just my opinion. A 20% drop is very difficult to believe. I personally think it is around 7% drop. But at the same time I dont want to totally ignore trackitt trends, especially because this is the first proper year after Karzarian.

Hi All Guru's,

I see mixed predictions here some people saying PD will not move to early 2008 this year. And Some saying it will be reaching early 2008. In the first page "Q" still says it is going to be between Mar-Apr2008. Do we really need to wait untill JulyVB is out onto determine which one is correct? Or Can I go with Q/Spec/Matt/Viz prediction saying it will reach early 2008. Am undergoing lot of stress in my current work environment, but still am just taking this pain from past 1 year by just looking at you guys prediction and analysis. Incase if dates not going to move then better I can change my job. Pls help me guru's with your suggestion. I have PD of NOV2007.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MATT2012

Trackitt generally have only EB1 Indian cases, the other cases are very few. So using just trackitt for EB1 will not help us. The number of Indian cases also may have come down in trackitt due to general negative sentiments around misuse of EB1C. just my opinion. A 20% drop is very difficult to believe. I personally think it is around 7% drop. But at the same time I dont want to totally ignore trackitt trends, especially because this is the first proper year after Karzarian.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NOV2007

Hi All Guru's,

I see mixed predictions here some people saying PD will not move to early 2008 this year. And Some saying it will be reaching early 2008. In the first page "Q" still says it is going to be between Mar-Apr2008. Do we really need to wait untill JulyVB is out onto determine which one is correct? Or Can I go with Q/Spec/Matt/Viz prediction saying it will reach early 2008. Am undergoing lot of stress in my current work environment, but still am just taking this pain from past 1 year by just looking at you guys prediction and analysis. Incase if dates not going to move then better I can change my job. Pls help me guru's with your suggestion. I have PD of NOV2007.

---

I know its a difficult decision but if possible, I'd hold off making career decisions until the Sept VB (released in August) at the latest. My personal belief is that you will be current by the Aug VB. It should not stop you from exploring options even now and letting prospective employers that will not be able to join until Oct 1. Some companies might not want to wait but others might.

Hi NOV2007,
I feel the point of the all the analysis and data provided along with these predictions is to enable users to make proper/calculated decisions themselves. It would be unfair to call out to any guru to offer guarantees on something which they cannot control. That being said, and also with the disclaimer that I am not a guru.... I would put the chances of PD reaching your date this FY at good (70 -80%). However, if you already have an ED and a better job I would suggest that you should make the move. Suffering through a stressful job for sake of GC when a good alternative is available, from my point of view, is not worth it. After all one of the big benefits of GC is better opportunity.. and looks like you already have it. By the time you settle down in your job and start getting stressful again :) (just kidding).... the queue would have cleared and your GC would be on its way.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NOV2007

Hi All Guru's,

I see mixed predictions here some people saying PD will not move to early 2008 this year. And Some saying it will be reaching early 2008. In the first page "Q" still says it is going to be between Mar-Apr2008. Do we really need to wait untill JulyVB is out onto determine which one is correct? Or Can I go with Q/Spec/Matt/Viz prediction saying it will reach early 2008. Am undergoing lot of stress in my current work environment, but still am just taking this pain from past 1 year by just looking at you guys prediction and analysis. Incase if dates not going to move then better I can change my job. Pls help me guru's with your suggestion. I have PD of NOV2007.

---

Well said Viz and though I understand the frustration by Nov2007, I am fully agree with Viz. I am also in the same boat having PD Dec 2007 without EAD:(. Please don't ask me how did I miss the train :)

Nov2007 - this is your year my friend. Relax. You will get your GC by Sep 2013. If you don't - that definitely will mean something seriously wrong with your case and you should seek help from a lawyer - call USCIS and all of that. But don't stress out. Take it easy. There is a movie called "Scent of a Woman" where Al Pacino has a great line - "When in doubt ... eff it". Excuse the language but the message of the character in the movie (a retired disabled Army/Marine Officer) is to live in the moment and not worry too much.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NOV2007

Hi All Guru's,

I see mixed predictions here some people saying PD will not move to early 2008 this year. And Some saying it will be reaching early 2008. In the first page "Q" still says it is going to be between Mar-Apr2008. Do we really need to wait untill JulyVB is out onto determine which one is correct? Or Can I go with Q/Spec/Matt/Viz prediction saying it will reach early 2008. Am undergoing lot of stress in my current work environment, but still am just taking this pain from past 1 year by just looking at you guys prediction and analysis. Incase if dates not going to move then better I can change my job. Pls help me guru's with your suggestion. I have PD of NOV2007.

---

So u r also a fan of that movie. I love that movie.

It's been almost 12-13 years now since I watched it first but I still love it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

So u r also a fan of that movie. I love that movie.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

It's been almost 12-13 years now since I watched it first but I still love it.

---

Q,

If we are going to talk about movie clips, I think this one from the original The Italian Job with Michael Caine best sums up how CO handled last year!

The remake was a travesty.

You guys are just marvellous. Thanks Guru's Qesh/Spec/Viz/Matt/info/vkpp. Your suggestions are really helpful to people like me. I had left the country for good back in 2009 but by then I had my EB2 PD in NOV2007. Then I came back again in 2012 mid H1B sponsered by current employer by then PD was retrogressed to 2004. I have ported my EB2 PD NOV2007 from my old employer to current employer. And now its been 3 months my I140 has been approved with current employer.
Am just following you Guru's educated analysis and calculations since then. I have been handled badly by my manager even after delivering good work to them. And this manager is highly notorious and even outside/inside recruiters are tired finding people for them, and nobody have worked so far beyond 6-8 months(Avg 3 months). Am just sitting calm bearing all trouble to sail through this time. I wish everybody who are in my situation to get their PD current and have good life.
Thanks Qesh for your wonderful service.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

If we are going to talk about movie clips, I think this one from the original The Italian Job with Michael Caine best sums up how CO handled last year!

The remake was a travesty.

---

I suspect the July bulletin will tell almost everything about the rest of the year's bulletins:
1. I suspect most likely CO might make a safe move of about jan 2007 or august 2007, in that case predictions made by most here might be true.
2. No movement in july means there is a good chance that there will be very little to no movement at all this year.( I do not believe like many here that significant movements can be made starting from august onwards.)
3. lastly I hope that they move to jan 2008 so I can get my GC :)

I have followed the movements for a while now but most of the data ( calculated from trackitt) I base my predcitions are from spec and others here

I got an approval today on Labor filed on January 3rd, 2013. With PD of April 2008, should I be pushing for I-140 in premium?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gtyagi

I got an approval today on Labor filed on January 3rd, 2013. With PD of April 2008, should I be pushing for I-140 in premium?

---

You are the only one that can respond to your question. Do you need EAD in 7 months from now or you can wait until September 2014? Do you really think that somebody can tell you if your date will be current or not? Even if you will be current you will most likely get your greencard next fiscal year end. They are thousand of applications that are already pre approved and those will get visas in the next 3 months. Yours will need 3-6 months processing before gets a visa number.

First of all, dude, drop the attitude. My first part of the comment is to make everyone aware that although icert portal is not updated, LD is approving cases filed in January 1st week. Second, depending on current scenarios, if the dates are not going to be current for April 2008, there is no point for me to file for i-140. I guess I will know myself in 2-3 weeks.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by isantem

You are the only one that can respond to your question. Do you need EAD in 7 months from now or you can wait until September 2014? Do you really think that somebody can tell you if your date will be current or not? Even if you will be current you will most likely get your greencard next fiscal year end. They are thousand of applications that are already pre approved and those will get visas in the next 3 months. Yours will need 3-6 months processing before gets a visa number.

---

If you can, I'd recommend a premium processing - that's what I would do.
Best case - you get GC (or atleast EAD), worst case - you spent the premium processing fee.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gtyagi

First of all, dude, drop the attitude

---

?????????????? Did you had a bad day? Premium processing is 2 weeks if you find out on June 10th that you are current in July you have 8 weeks to get I-140 approved and file I485.
What answer did you want to your question? "Yes go ahead pay premium and you will be current 100%"? I was just trying to explain you that the answer needs to come from you by answering "do I need the EAD in February 2014 or I can wait to get my greencard in September 2014"

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gtyagi

I guess I will know myself in 2-3 weeks.

---

You got it.

I forgot the exact question but the member was looking for some information on how to get pending/approved I-485 data from USCIS . I could see people are filing under FOIA to get these data ........http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/About%20U...FOIA%20Log.pdf

gtyagi, there is a general opinion on trackitt that premium processing is not accepted for porting cases as they need more than 15 days. I am not sure though.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kanmani

I forgot the exact question but the member was looking for some information on how to get pending/approved I-485 data from USCIS . I could see people are filing under FOIA to get these data ........http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/About%20U...FOIA%20Log.pdf

---

I'll bet a lot of these are staffers for CIR.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gtyagi

First of all, dude, drop the attitude. My first part of the comment is to make everyone aware that although icert portal is not updated, LD is approving cases filed in January 1st week. Second, depending on current scenarios, if the dates are not going to be current for April 2008, there is no point for me to file for i-140. I guess I will know myself in 2-3 weeks.

---

Whether it is porting case or not.. I-140 premium processing is valid as per law.. Not aware of any interim memo like PP for porting cases is not valid. If it is please throw some light on that law.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...004718190aRCRD

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by immitime

Whether it is porting case or not.. I-140 premium processing is valid as per law.. Not aware of any interim memo like PP for porting cases is not valid. If it is please throw some light on that law.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...004718190aRCRD

---

That is a really out of date link. The conditions in it have not been in place for some time to my knowledge. It seems that was superceded effective June 29, 2009.

This is the latest USCIS PP page.

I don't see anything that would exclude porting cases, unless they do not have the original LC for the EB2 I-140.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gtyagi

First of all, dude, drop the attitude. My first part of the comment is to make everyone aware that although icert portal is not updated, LD is approving cases filed in January 1st week. Second, depending on current scenarios, if the dates are not going to be current for April 2008, there is no point for me to file for i-140. I guess I will know myself in 2-3 weeks.

---

You can do premium processing.

gtyagi - unless you are paying out of pocket - I would definitely recommend getting 140 done without waiting for 485.

If you are paying out of pocket its your choice. But I would've waited.

On another note - sometimes people don't mean we read in those words. I would've just thanked isantem for even taking the trouble to respond to my question.

Anyway .. Cheer up ... Apr 2008 is not too far. Worst case is 14 months from today. But likely Apr 2008 should get through.

Ron's comments on PP - EB3->EB2 porting http://www.immigration-information.c...4-i140-porting

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Ron's comments on PP - EB3->EB2 porting http://www.immigration-information.c...4-i140-porting

---

I think Ron is totally wrong here.


If you port an EB3 priority date to EB2 I140 priority date using premium processing, USCIS will approve the EB2 140 with a new priority date but mention the old A# number in most cases. (In some cases, they will also port the priority date). However A# capture is sufficient.

After approval of new I140, your lawyer can raise a request with USCIS if the old priority date or A # was not captured ( I think you file it as an USCIS error if you had provided the earlier I140 approval details earlier but USCIS failed to act on it). They will then correct it and
send a new copy of I140 with A# and the old priority date. I got this done couple of months ago.

Thanks Viz. I appreciate it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vizcard

If you can, I'd recommend a premium processing - that's what I would do.
Best case - you get GC (or atleast EAD), worst case - you spent the premium processing fee.

---

Kanmani, I am just trying to keep the priority date from EB2 to EB2. I changed job and missed the date last time. I am hoping this would be fine for premium processing.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kanmani

gtyagi, there is a general opinion on trackitt that premium processing is not accepted for porting cases as they need more than 15 days. I am not sure though.

---

Thanks Q. Saw your comment late.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

gtyagi - unless you are paying out of pocket - I would definitely recommend getting 140 done without waiting for 485.

If you are paying out of pocket its your choice. But I would've waited.

On another note - sometimes people don't mean we read in those words. I would've just thanked isantem for even taking the trouble to respond to my question.

Anyway .. Cheer up ... Apr 2008 is not too far. Worst case is 14 months from today. But likely Apr 2008 should get through.

---

Did you miss the opening last Jan 2012?

I am not sure and really don't want to mess up too. But I have read several posts over the years, people discussing about this. Good Luck .

his labor just cleared ... probably that meant he ported.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Did you miss the opening last Jan 2012?

I am not really sure and really don't want to mess up too. But I have read several posts over the years, people discussing about this. Good Luck .

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

his labor just cleared ... probably that meant he ported.

---

Q, No. He has changed employer with no I-485 filing in hand. He probably missed the boat.

Oh .. i didn't read his last post. He definitely missed the boat. I wonder how that is even possible!!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Q, No. He has changed employer with no I-485 filing in hand. He probably missed the boat.

---

Q, Kanmani

I didnot port from EB3-EB2. Original PD was April 2008. But I had to change job and due to some issues it took more than a year to just file for Labor. The case was started with murthy in November 2011 and they filed for labor in Jan 2013.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

his labor just cleared ... probably that meant he ported.

---

Gurus I know this thread is not appropriate on CIR, but little curious. How far are we from CIR. Can Gurus comment on it. Since next month there is a likely change of forward movement in dates if we can also take a stock of CIR implication it would give good perspective to forum readers.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mailmvr

Gurus I know this thread is not appropriate on CIR, but little curious. How far are we from CIR. Can Gurus comment on it. Since next month there is a likely change of forward movement in dates if we can also take a stock of CIR implication it would give good perspective to forum readers.

---

I'll answer this one but please post all follow up questions on the Bills thread or CIR thread.

CIR is still a long way to go. It will most likely pass the Senate in June (before 4th of July). At that point, the House will take over. Given that the House is crafting their own bill, they will go through their process (similar to the Senate) and vote in the House - probably some time in Sept (almost all of August is summer recess). Assuming the House bill passes in the House, there will be offline discussions to find a compromise between the House and Senate bills. Subsequently, the new compromised bill will be voted on in the House and Senate. As you can see there is a lot of procedure, a ton of hurdles and lots of backroom dealings. IF CIR passes at all, it won't be this FY (IMO).

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

PDF version

I notice that the EB1 numbers are pretty high compared to last year. However what I dont understand is how come these many applications having been sitting there for so long given that it is EB1 and processing time is 3 to 4 months.

These high numbers scare me as we were hoping to have a large fall down from EB1.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

PDF version

---

Surprisingly light on EB1 and EB2-ROW. Not by much still it may be indicative.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kd2008

Surprisingly light on EB1 and EB2-ROW. Not by much still it may be indicative.

---

2007 looks possible!

Category May2012 Apr2013
EB1 15719 11573
EBROW 11819 10227

From Pending inventory in Apr 2013 and May 2012 (Last year)

Natvyas, your reading is incorrect based on above facts.