EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Thanks for your help!

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I emailed the consulate (Nassau in my case at visanassau@state.gov). Transcript of my communication is below.
My email
Dear Sir/Madam,
I have an appointment with the Nassau US consulate to extend by H1-B
visa. I wanted to ensure that my information was in PIMS prior to the
appointment.

My information from the Notice of Action I-797A is below -
Receipt # - <from 797>
I-94 # - <I-94 # from 797>
Name - <your_name>
Class - H1B
Valid from <from> until <to>Pertitioner - <Company Name>

My appointment date is on <date> at <time>
If you need any more information, I can be reached at (xxx)xxx-xxxx or
by email at xyz@email.com

I would appreciate it if you could confirm that my information is in the system.

Regards,


Their responseThank you for sending your petition information. It has been submitted
for verification. You will not receive any further communication from
us. At the time of interview, the officer will inform you whether or
not your case requires additional administrative processing.
In addition, please understand that some cases may take several days,
and in some cases weeks and even months, to finalize. You should plan
your trip to Bahamas accordingly. Finally, note that we are unable to
confirm specific case information prior to your interview.
Sincerely,
Non-Immigrant Visa Unit
U.S. Embassy Nassau
E-mail: VisaNassau@state.gov
http://nassau.usembassy.gov/consular.html

This email is UNCLASSIFIED

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What was the reason cited i 221(g)?

Problem is I do international travel a lot for my work.. so if I do not get stamping now, I will have to get it in 1 or 2 months when I go out of USA (not to India.. but some other country).

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

I had 6 months of valid visas and went for stamping with new I 797 and got 221(G) and stuck there for a week. If you have at least month in visa validity and not planning to travel soon , may be use old stamp.

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Thanks!


Problem is I do international travel a lot for my work.. so if I do not get stamping now, I will have to get it in 1 or 2 months when I go out of USA (not to India.. but some other country).

So i might as well get the Visa stampled in India.

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Originally Posted by ThatIsAll

to answer your question on 221(G)
--221(G) cases have increased a lot since mid 2010 and many I know have got it recently too.

Since your old visa is valid you don't have to go for stamping for the new visa and thus avoid 221g risk. At the port of entry you can show your new I797 ending in 2015 and your I94 will have that latest date of 2015

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Originally Posted by leo07

Hi Self.Coach, First couple of posts on this thread are frequently updated with the information that you are looking for. That said, since lot of the information that we are seeing now is speculation( could turn either way), it's hard to predict one way or the other without seeing this month's vb and demand data. By and large, over the course of entire 2012, first couple of posts will hold water. Because, irrespective of how CIS allocates visas, they got only 140K to allocate.

Best!

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You are right..I know the policy of not asking when our priority dates are due. I think I should have asked what my main concern was directly - wanted input on the chance of Eb3 porters clogging up Eb2 to an extent that Eb2 slows down or even retrogresses considerably.

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Originally Posted by self.coach

If the December 2011 bulletin announces EB 2 movement to March 2008 and further movement in the next two months, what kind of movement do you guys anticipate in 2012? Its possible that the porters from EB3 to EB2 will slow down EB2 considerably in next two years or even cause retrogression. Thoughts, guys?

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For EB3I applicants between 2004 and 2007 PDs (dates that are current for EB2 already) the difference between the 6 to 12 year wait they are looking at from now to get their GCs (very quick and dirty math) is already significantly worse than if they ported (current), so this recent move will make no difference. For folks from 2008 to 2010 PDs, they were already looking at 20 + year wait on average, so they too would have already been super motivated to port without the recent moves. So, the bottom line is, people from EB3I outside the 2002/2003 range that are not porting are not doing it for a reason. Either they tried and can't, or have other reasons to not want to (not keyed into the GC process at all, really love their jobs, are counting on their spouses filing under EB2, looking at returning anyway, etc). The recent EB2 movement is not a variable that will change any of these, in my opinion. The only variable I think that can change the equation is if the economy improves, and people can find alternative jobs more easily. Until then, I don't expect the porting number to go up from the 2K or so estimated recently.

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Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

For EB3I applicants between 2004 and 2007 PDs (dates that are current for EB2 already) the difference between the 6 to 12 year wait they are looking at from now to get their GCs (very quick and dirty math) is already significantly worse than if they ported (current), so this recent move will make no difference. For folks from 2008 to 2010 PDs, they were already looking at 20 + year wait on average, so they too would have already been super motivated to port without the recent moves. So, the bottom line is, people from EB3I outside the 2002/2003 range that are not porting are not doing it for a reason. Either they tried and can't, or have other reasons to not want to (not keyed into the GC process at all, really love their jobs, are counting on their spouses filing under EB2, looking at returning anyway, etc). The recent EB2 movement is not a variable that will change any of these, in my opinion. The only variable I think that can change the equation is if the economy improves, and people can find alternative jobs more easily. Until then, I don't expect the porting number to go up from the 2K or so estimated recently.

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Thanks, I was concerned after reading somewhere that Eb3 folks were paying 25-40K for porting to consulting companies (not sure how genuinely true it is..theyre from another forum). While I say that, just want to add a note I do hope the best for Eb3 folks, and I totally empathize their situation. If they do port to Eb2 may God give them GC fast, as they deserve it as much as Eb2 folks.

Koreans opposed HR 3012.

In a letter for committee leaders, the Korean-American Scientists and Engineers Association said the law would create a two-year wait for Koreans who get science, technology, engineering or math (STEM) degrees from universities in the U.S. It urged the committee "not to force engineers from Korea to wait [an] additional two years in their immigration process to get green cards."

http://www.computerworld.com/s/artic...?taxonomyId=72

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Originally Posted by self.coach

Koreans opposed HR 3012.

In a letter for committee leaders, the Korean-American Scientists and Engineers Association said the law would create a two-year wait for Koreans who get science, technology, engineering or math (STEM) degrees from universities in the U.S. It urged the committee "not to force engineers from Korea to wait [an] additional two years in their immigration process to get green cards."

http://www.computerworld.com/s/artic...?taxonomyId=72

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OMG OMG OMG.... what to do now.... shall we take them down ;-)....

interestingly they cant wait for 2 years when we wait for 4.5 years with same STEM degrees...

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Originally Posted by self.coach

Koreans opposed HR 3012.

In a letter for committee leaders, the Korean-American Scientists and Engineers Association said the law would create a two-year wait for Koreans who get science, technology, engineering or math (STEM) degrees from universities in the U.S. It urged the committee "not to force engineers from Korea to wait [an] additional two years in their immigration process to get green cards."

http://www.computerworld.com/s/artic...?taxonomyId=72

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Really? 2 years? Ask Microsoft which nationality of immigrants owns the most patents.

Man this one I couldnt resist chiming in. The point made by the korean body is totally BS, you are saying you cant wait additional 2 years when similarly qualified people wait for much larger years. The argument doesn't hold merit.

Koreans are really eating away a lot of the EB2 visas anyways, since their family based is less.

Very intersting though was the read that IEEE USA supports this. In the past they have really hammered H1 and other employment based avenues of us getting in. This is a now or never thing in my opinion. This bill: This is it.

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Originally Posted by self.coach

Koreans opposed HR 3012.

In a letter for committee leaders, the Korean-American Scientists and Engineers Association said the law would create a two-year wait for Koreans who get science, technology, engineering or math (STEM) degrees from universities in the U.S. It urged the committee "not to force engineers from Korea to wait [an] additional two years in their immigration process to get green cards."

http://www.computerworld.com/s/artic...?taxonomyId=72

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This for sure will not hold water. Highly ridiculous argument to make to anybody to convince. It just shows how narrow minded they are and that's totally Un-American, if they ever want to become one. I'm sure America doesn't need such narrow minded, self-interested folks to blend in to make the society a worse place.

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Originally Posted by self.coach

Koreans opposed HR 3012.

In a letter for committee leaders, the Korean-American Scientists and Engineers Association said the law would create a two-year wait for Koreans who get science, technology, engineering or math (STEM) degrees from universities in the U.S. It urged the committee "not to force engineers from Korea to wait [an] additional two years in their immigration process to get green cards."

http://www.computerworld.com/s/artic...?taxonomyId=72

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Koreans helped the bill in my opinion, average EB2IC waits 5 years for green card, if everybodys wait time becomes 2-3 years what's so big deal about it

self.coach,

If you are asking about the fluctuation in number of 'Upgrades'( EB3 to EB2 ) this year over last year then: IMHO, upgrades would be less this year compared to last year. Simple reason is, people who are eligible and upgrade-able would have already upgraded in flocks by now. The remaining folks who would become eligible this year and waiting would be less, because they will have to quit their current jobs and find another one to file EB2. In any case, fluctuation and it's impact would be minimal on SOFAD, if that's what your concern is.

Best

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Originally Posted by self.coach

You are right..I know the policy of not asking when our priority dates are due. I think I should have asked what my main concern was directly - wanted input on the chance of Eb3 porters clogging up Eb2 to an extent that Eb2 slows down or even retrogresses considerably.

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just 2 more days to go , hope CO doesnt disappoint :)

cbpds1

I dont think the VB will come this week. All chances are pointing towards it coming on Wed 9th-Fri 11th at the latest.

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Originally Posted by gcseeker

Dec VB 2010-Released on Nov 10th (Wed)
Dec VB 2009-Released on Nov 9th (Mon)
Dec VB 2008-Released on Nov 6th (Thurs)
Dec VB 2007-Released on Nov 13th (Tue)
Dec VB 2006-Released on Nov 8th (Wed)

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Originally Posted by gcseeker

cbpds1

I dont think the VB will come this week. All chances are pointing towards it coming on Wed 9th-Fri 11th at the latest.

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I disagree. The coming soon on the 1st of the month itself as well as CO's intent to move majorly forward in this holiday ended month, both indicate a release on friday the 4th, 10% chance of monday the 7th

Of course, anything can happen, but sharing my take

Nishant

Would be most happy if it comes sooner with the expected good news .You might be right since the CO might have already made up his mind based on the Murthy/Fragomen guidance:)

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

I disagree. The coming soon on the 1st of the month itself as well as CO's intent to move majorly forward in this holiday ended month, both indicate a release on friday the 4th, 10% chance of monday the 7th

Of course, anything can happen, but sharing my take

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Originally Posted by gcseeker

Nishant

Would be most happy if it comes sooner with the expected good news .You might be right since the CO might have already made up his mind based on the Murthy/Fragomen guidance:)

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:) dude its getting difficult to pass time. Minutes passing like hours.

Just hold on to your patience a little while; tomorrow might be the day! In any case, your PD will certainly be current!

SKPANDA

Just a quick note:

I was planning to go to Bahamas in June 2011 ..booked my tickets/blocked my interview in Nassau Bahamas..for some reason i called up US embassy in Nassau and they told me they are not doing H1 B extension stamping..Once i got confirmation I cancelled my interview ...and cancelled tickets(loss 300 bucks because of change fees which airlines are ripping common people)..By the way i did do once extension in Nassau in 2007 and it was piece of cake and it is close to my place Tampa...So please check back with them and then go!..Good luck..

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Originally Posted by jkrocks

SKPANDA

Just a quick note:

I was planning to go to Bahamas in June 2011 ..booked my tickets/blocked my interview in Nassau Bahamas..for some reason i called up US embassy in Nassau and they told me they are not doing H1 B extension stamping..Once i got confirmation I cancelled my interview ...and cancelled tickets(loss 300 bucks because of change fees which airlines are ripping common people)..By the way i did do once extension in Nassau in 2007 and it was piece of cake and it is close to my place Tampa...So please check back with them and then go!..Good luck..

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My cousin called recently as well (in the last month). He got the same response.

Hello Guys,

Pardon me if i am interrupting the flow of discussion.

I was convicted of a DUI in New Jersey in 2007. I have completed all the formalities and also have the court disposition letter. I have these questions:

1. Do I need to include the original court disposition letter (with the court seal) in my I-485 packet or is a notarized copy enough? Its not a big deal to get that letter, it costs about $20 and I can get it in 2-3 days.
2. I plan to include copies of the police report, court documents, course completion certificate, receipts and the disposition letter. Do all these documents need to be notarized?
3. DUI s not a criminal offense in NJ (At least it wasn't in 2007). I was not finger printed. I have my lawyer's letter that states this. Do I also include it in the packet?

It was a big big mistake in my life and I want to make sure that it doesn't have any adverse impact on the GC process. Are there any other steps that I need to take?

Thanks a lot!

Hey Guys new to the thread....
PD:2/1/2011

2 Questions:
1. Assuming that the Fairness for immigrants bill becomes law. Guru's: How do you see the predictions change?
2. I am a people manager, never worked in India or else where. Is it possible to get to jump company and apply in EB1?(Desperation, Been on H1B for 8 years)

Thanks much..

I believe Friday next 11th is a federal holiday isn't it ?? So VB might have to come before that. My gut feeling is this friday is THE day folks.
I'm frantically checking the DOS VB webpage lot of times just in case ....

LoL...same here...:)

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

:) dude its getting difficult to pass time. Minutes passing like hours.

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Nishant, Gcseeker and others waiting to be current,
Hang in there buddies....praying for you guys..hopefully tomorrow is the day :)
Otherwise, next week for sure you guys will get electrified !

Hey Guys , for the filing of I 485 , we have an attorney and I was wondering , besides supplying the all paperwork , what forms are we as an applicant are expected to fill by ourselves.

I'll try to answer.

Q1) Please keep a minimum wait of 3.5 years assuming fairness act will turn in to a law. Remember 140K visa limit annually is not changing . So really hope for SOFAD to spill over to EB2 besides the fairness act guaranteed numbers.

Q2) I would be a little doubtful if you will qualify for EB1 . EB1 these days is under intense scrutiny and your employer should be big enough to have international engagements and your role should be broad enough to be an international executive . Most importantly your employer should really go all out to support your case to make it EB1 . Per my knowledge of EB1 cases , typically many dont qualify , however depending on how flexible their organization is pushing it for you , it is a great option if you can .

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Originally Posted by Waiting4Ever

Hey Guys new to the thread....
PD:2/1/2011

2 Questions:
1. Assuming that the Fairness for immigrants bill becomes law. Guru's: How do you see the predictions change?
2. I am a people manager, never worked in India or else where. Is it possible to get to jump company and apply in EB1?(Desperation, Been on H1B for 8 years)

Thanks much..

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I just wanted to open up the topic of Demand Data, for discussion. IMHO the cumulative demand data for India and China (prior to 1 January 2008) should atleast remain the same (if not decrease) from the number of 2675.

What do you folks think?

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Originally Posted by natvyas

I just wanted to open up the topic of Demand Data, for discussion. IMHO the cumulative demand data for India and China (prior to 1 January 2008) should atleast remain the same (if not decrease) from the number of 2675.

What do you folks think?

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It will be Half down.

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Originally Posted by natvyas

I just wanted to open up the topic of Demand Data, for discussion. IMHO the cumulative demand data for India and China (prior to 1 January 2008) should atleast remain the same (if not decrease) from the number of 2675.

What do you folks think?

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I agree with you. Unless he is doing any QSP allocation.

Oh law firm updated page with stay tuned for Dec VB link. Progress.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Oh law firm updated page with stay tuned for Dec VB link. Progress.

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Nishant, just my 2c of brotherly advice. You are way over invested and over obsessed about this bulletin - I would say to the point of being unhealthy. It will arrive in due course and it won't change anything that matters in your life - your family, your friends, your self-worth, your memories etc.

I can understand why Nishant (or anyone else is antsy). It's the light at the end of a VERY long tunnel (and its not a freight train).

I wish everyone best of luck for the forthcoming visa bulletin.

I should be current (PD 12/2007) by this bulletin...

Eb2_Dec07-

Apart from the documentation you have to fill G325A form for each of the applicant, sign it and send it along with the rest of paperwork. All other forms would be filled by your attorney and should be reviewd along with you. For medicals Doc office asked me to showup for the tests and they would fill everything, I will just review my personal details and confirm they are correct.

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Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07

Hey Guys , for the filing of I 485 , we have an attorney and I was wondering , besides supplying the all paperwork , what forms are we as an applicant are expected to fill by ourselves.

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Based on trackitt data, i see one 485 approved on 11/1 and one 485 approved on 11/2 from India EB2.
May be CO does not have enough visas for this month. Any ideas?

My PD is 12/19/07, If i become current in dec bulletin, Will i be able to apply for 485 starting Dec 1st till the end of December or can i apply starting the release of the bulletin till Dec end. Just want to make sure what is the valid period for a visa bulltin to apply. Reason i am asking because, i am not getting any doctor appointments near my area till Dec first week.

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Originally Posted by arikepudi

My PD is 12/19/07, If i become current in dec bulletin, Will i be able to apply for 485 starting Dec 1st till the end of December or can i apply starting the release of the bulletin till Dec end. Just want to make sure what is the valid period for a visa bulltin to apply. Reason i am asking because, i am not getting any doctor appointments near my area till Dec first week.

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You will be able to apply the 485 between Dec 1 - Dec 31 only if you are current in Dec VB.

U can apply later also if dates won't retrogress.

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Originally Posted by venkimakthal

You will be able to apply the 485 between Dec 1 - Dec 31 only if you are current in Dec VB.

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