EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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03-07-2021, 07:45 PM
maverick2010

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

You have every right to fire / change your immigration attorney at any time. However, you need to inform USCIS of change. The new attorney will file a G-28 form and the status will show as "Name was Updated" after USCIS accepts it.

Will a change of attorney really help you? That's a different question. Usually attorneys work with the company and before companies share anything they have some sort of agreement covering both of them (such as NDA). So once you switch, it may make things difficult from the company side to get support. To downgrade or "interfile" or "change of underlying basis", you need access to I-140 and PERM job description. Another option is to file another "I-140" for EB3, keeping EB2 "I-140" intact. Think carefully, understand the whole process, understand what underlying documents you need and then switch.

Edit: I forgot the elephant in the room. To downgrade or not depends on your PD and some anticipation of future PD movement. Kindly put the PD or Service Center or your status in your signature. That will help the experts here to answer your downgrade question.

Thanks Idliman! that was helpful. I'll make sure I enter my details every time when I post here on.

My Details- EB2 India - Sep 2010. Came to US in 2001 to do Masters - Journey is still going on...
03-07-2021, 08:43 PM
mesan123

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

Mesan, Kindly pay attention to whether it is TSC or NSC. It looks like NSC is zooming ahead, sending RFEs and approving GCs. If your application happens to be in NSC, rest assured that you will get GC this year once PD is current.

I don't understand what's going on with TSC. Even before the recent weather event, their processing and approval speeds are slow. Are they understaffed for their workload or mismanaged? In the last year DT admin converted a few political appointees to permanent career positions. I sincerely wish one of the anti-immigrant admin is NOT siting as a Ninja and pulling the strings in TSC. Everyone's wish is that there should be some method to madness at USCIS. They should prioritize applications based on either Received Date or Priority Date.

Sorry to show my frustrations on you this fine Sunday morning.

No worries... that is good to know. Mine is MSC ... where i fall? ��
03-07-2021, 09:12 PM
maverick2010

The date of birth certificate I sent to USCIS is late registered(was not issued during time of birth) and it looks like USCIS will send an RFE asking for secondary evidence like parents/relatives affidavit (or) certificate of non-availability.

I'm thinking about having the affidavit ready now but my law firm is saying it really depends on the officer and recommending to wait and proceed based on RFE. Any thoughts on whether I'll get RFE for sure or it really depends on the officer?

Thanks!

PD:09/01/2010(EB2 I);RD-11/05/2020; ND-02/10/2021; MSC21907#####
03-07-2021, 11:30 PM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by maverick2010

The date of birth certificate I sent to USCIS is late registered(was not issued during time of birth) and it looks like USCIS will send an RFE asking for secondary evidence like parents/relatives affidavit (or) certificate of non-availability.

I'm thinking about having the affidavit ready now but my law firm is saying it really depends on the officer and recommending to wait and proceed based on RFE. Any thoughts on whether I'll get RFE for sure or it really depends on the officer?

Thanks!

PD:09/01/2010(EB2 I);RD-11/05/2020; ND-02/10/2021; MSC21907#####

You do not have to send the affidavits until an RFE is raised. But you can still get them done and they are valid based on the expiry date of the Notary attesting, usually 5 years in India. But there are some cases where they are valid with end date. And looking at the COIVD scenario, it may make sense to get the affidavits prepared and keep them ready. Also there is a separate thread on the content and details of an affidavit on the forum.
03-08-2021, 12:53 AM
jimmys

Quote:

Originally Posted by maverick2010

The date of birth certificate I sent to USCIS is late registered(was not issued during time of birth) and it looks like USCIS will send an RFE asking for secondary evidence like parents/relatives affidavit (or) certificate of non-availability.

I'm thinking about having the affidavit ready now but my law firm is saying it really depends on the officer and recommending to wait and proceed based on RFE. Any thoughts on whether I'll get RFE for sure or it really depends on the officer?

Thanks!

PD:09/01/2010(EB2 I);RD-11/05/2020; ND-02/10/2021; MSC21907#####

I had the same problem but the USCIS never issued any RFE for me. When I asked my lawyer, he responded in many cases USCIS accepts the late registered birth certificate from India. If I were you I wouldn't fret much.
03-08-2021, 08:06 AM
incredible

Number crunching done by a trackitt user (ABar15). An interesting read.

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...page/last_page. Copy pasted here below.

Spillover Visa Numbers: Caveats & Bottlenecks
Sources:
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ry_FY09_19.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...its-FY2021.pdf

260,000 spillover visas from 2020:
Category Allotted visa
EB1 74932
EB2 74932
EB3 74932
EB4 18602
EB5 18602

2018 2019* 2020** 2021** Total
EB1 India 7,523; 7,181; 7,000; 7000; =28704
China 4,525; 2,689; 3,689; 3,500; =14403

EB2 India (2009-21) 6,674; 15,313; 22,286; 22,311; 21,440; 25,634; 32,702; 49,054; 42,359; 40,317; 44,000; 44,000; 44,000; =410090
China (2016-21) 7,472; 6,289; 8,036; 10,000; 10,000; 10,000; =51797

EB3 India (2010-21) 6,682; 6,929; 4,110; 3,455; 3,878; 6,451; 10,179; 8,868; 8,279; 10,905; 11,000 11,000; =91736
China (2017-21) 4,412; 4,200; 3,722; 3,500; 3,500; =19334

*2019 projection based on the pending cases
** 2020 & 2021 projections based on the 2016-2019 trend
=Total.

Observations:
Total approved EB1 I-140s for India=28000 & China=14500
EB1 vertical spillover to EB2 => 75,000
Visa numbers available to EB2=> 75000 + 32500 = 107,500
Total approved EB2 I-140s for China (up to 2020) = 41,500
EB2 Visas available to India => 107,500 - 41,500 = 65,500
Total approved EB2 I-140s (India) from 2009-2013 = 88,000; However, 20% of the approved visas might have upgraded to EB1 or downgraded to EB3. Therefore, active EB2 I-40s could be around 70,000.
If 1/3 of EB2 from 2013 to 2015 are downgraded to EB3, the number of downgrades would come around 25,000.
Total approved EB3 I-140s (India) from 2010-2016 = 41,500 & Downgrade from EB2 to EB3 = 25,000
Conclusion: As per my assumption, the EB1 will remain current hereon; EB2 may move up to 2015 by Sept 2021; and EB3 may move up to 2016 by Sept 2021.
Bottleneck:
There are only 150 working days are left for USCIS in this year to process almost 260,000 visas. It means USCIS has to issue approximately 1750 visas every working day. It would be a daunting task for USCIS.
Caveats:
1. I am not sure about the USCIS policy about how it will distribute the 260,000 visas between India and China. In other words, would USCIS push India EB2 more aggressively over China?
2. I am not sure about how much El Salvador and Mexico would use the EB4 and EB5 visas. If any visas left in EB4 and EB5 will also undergo vertical spillover to add to the EB2.
3. The 7% visa quote from the current year still applicable to India and China. So, the visas from the current year also helps to move the EB2 and EB3 a little further.
03-08-2021, 09:56 AM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by incredible

Number crunching done by a trackitt user (ABar15). An interesting read.

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...page/last_page. Copy pasted here below.

Spillover Visa Numbers: Caveats & Bottlenecks
Sources:
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ry_FY09_19.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...its-FY2021.pdf

260,000 spillover visas from 2020:
Category Allotted visa
EB1 74932
EB2 74932
EB3 74932
EB4 18602
EB5 18602

2018 2019* 2020** 2021** Total
EB1 India 7,523; 7,181; 7,000; 7000; =28704
China 4,525; 2,689; 3,689; 3,500; =14403

EB2 India (2009-21) 6,674; 15,313; 22,286; 22,311; 21,440; 25,634; 32,702; 49,054; 42,359; 40,317; 44,000; 44,000; 44,000; =410090
China (2016-21) 7,472; 6,289; 8,036; 10,000; 10,000; 10,000; =51797

EB3 India (2010-21) 6,682; 6,929; 4,110; 3,455; 3,878; 6,451; 10,179; 8,868; 8,279; 10,905; 11,000 11,000; =91736
China (2017-21) 4,412; 4,200; 3,722; 3,500; 3,500; =19334

*2019 projection based on the pending cases
** 2020 & 2021 projections based on the 2016-2019 trend
=Total.

Observations:
Total approved EB1 I-140s for India=28000 & China=14500
EB1 vertical spillover to EB2 => 75,000
Visa numbers available to EB2=> 75000 + 32500 = 107,500
Total approved EB2 I-140s for China (up to 2020) = 41,500
EB2 Visas available to India => 107,500 - 41,500 = 65,500
Total approved EB2 I-140s (India) from 2009-2013 = 88,000; However, 20% of the approved visas might have upgraded to EB1 or downgraded to EB3. Therefore, active EB2 I-40s could be around 70,000.
If 1/3 of EB2 from 2013 to 2015 are downgraded to EB3, the number of downgrades would come around 25,000.
Total approved EB3 I-140s (India) from 2010-2016 = 41,500 & Downgrade from EB2 to EB3 = 25,000
Conclusion: As per my assumption, the EB1 will remain current hereon; EB2 may move up to 2015 by Sept 2021; and EB3 may move up to 2016 by Sept 2021.
Bottleneck:
There are only 150 working days are left for USCIS in this year to process almost 260,000 visas. It means USCIS has to issue approximately 1750 visas every working day. It would be a daunting task for USCIS.
Caveats:
1. I am not sure about the USCIS policy about how it will distribute the 260,000 visas between India and China. In other words, would USCIS push India EB2 more aggressively over China?
2. I am not sure about how much El Salvador and Mexico would use the EB4 and EB5 visas. If any visas left in EB4 and EB5 will also undergo vertical spillover to add to the EB2.
3. The 7% visa quote from the current year still applicable to India and China. So, the visas from the current year also helps to move the EB2 and EB3 a little further.

Good one. But where is the multiplier applied to the pending numbers. Am I missing it?
03-08-2021, 09:57 AM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by incredible

Conclusion: As per my assumption, the EB1 will remain current hereon; EB2 may move up to 2015 by Sept 2021; and EB3 may move up to 2016 by Sept 2021.

Unfortunately the math is all wrong for the following reasons.

i) EB1/EB2/EB3 is not just for India and China. I did not see ROW included in the calculations.
ii) China will NOT get more than 7% of available visas as India is the most backlogged country (in EB2/EB3).
iii) No of approved i140s is NOT EQUAL TO No of AOS applications. Most likely number of AOS applications = 2 X Approved i140s.
03-08-2021, 11:35 AM
AceMan

Conclusion: As per my assumption, the EB1 will remain current hereon; EB2 may move up to 2015 by Sept 2021; and EB3 may move up to 2016 by Sept 2021.

I would love to see this kind of movement. But not happening.
03-08-2021, 02:38 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moveon

As I said it should not be any issue as long as it is within the same org. Eg One Engineering VP's org to another . As long as you/company can keep the job description within what was filed for the I-140 you are safe . Its very easy when you are in the same company for two reasons
1. The RFE if ever issued typically asks for a new Supp-J only if you changed employers . In your case you are in the same company, so you will not have to respond to it .
2. The USCIS realizes that our job functions cannot be the same for years at end just because we were born in India. Your perm.I-140 I am sure was was filed with a generic description that would give you the flexibility to switch fields . You just need 50% overlap in the worst case .

Go for it man. Don't live in fear.

thank you!
03-08-2021, 03:12 PM
Noesis

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noesis

Finally got the checks cashed today morning. Never felt this happy after someone took the money :)
Hopefully receipt numbers would follow soon, if not, then Hello Emma.!
Nothing on the H4 and H4 EAD though, still pending with the same status after multiple Inquiries, follow ups, SRs, calls, Chat.

Got the receipts numbers today for 485, 765 and 131.
All from Nebraska Service Center starting with LIN (I had mailed the applications to Lewisville)

@Gurus, I have a question; My spouse's receipts have an A number different than mine; she has her own i140 approved but we didn't mention the A number on application since she is a derivative applicant in this case. Is this okay or a concern.?
03-08-2021, 04:23 PM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noesis

Got the receipts numbers today for 485, 765 and 131.
All from Nebraska Service Center starting with LIN (I had mailed the applications to Lewisville)

@Gurus, I have a question; My spouse's receipts have an A number different than mine; she has her own i140 approved but we didn't mention the A number on application since she is a derivative applicant in this case. Is this okay or a concern.?

The fact that you got all your receipts means that you should be good as far as forms being in general good order. Also, even if you didn't share the A-Number, I suppose the supporting documents you may have provided for your spouse's legal stay in the US will usually have that information printed on them. For example, all I-797 notices do have the beneficiary's A-Number in them.
03-08-2021, 04:50 PM
Noesis

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

The fact that you got all your receipts means that you should be good as far as forms being in general good order. Also, even if you didn't share the A-Number, I suppose the supporting documents you may have provided for your spouse's legal stay in the US will usually have that information printed on them. For example, all I-797 notices do have the beneficiary's A-Number in them.

Thank you much.
03-08-2021, 07:14 PM
idliman

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noesis

Got the receipts numbers today for 485, 765 and 131.
All from Nebraska Service Center starting with LIN (I had mailed the applications to Lewisville)

@Gurus, I have a question; My spouse's receipts have an A number different than mine; she has her own i140 approved but we didn't mention the A number on application since she is a derivative applicant in this case. Is this okay or a concern.?

You are lucky that it went to Nebraska. They are much faster with processing (when compared to TSC) and promptly send out RFEs for I-693 once they expire. A# or Alien Number is the equivalent of SSN for USCIS. It has to be different for all applicants.

Was your "Received Date" printed correctly in receipt notices?
03-08-2021, 08:22 PM
newsletter1978

I applied 1485 on Oct 29. The receipt notice has MSC.. My wife got biometrics and got her EAD and advance parole. I got current in March bulletin but have not received biometrics appointment so far. Somehoe they processed my wife's and mine seperately. anyone on same boat?
03-08-2021, 08:38 PM
Noesis

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

You are lucky that it went to Nebraska. They are much faster with processing (when compared to TSC) and promptly send out RFEs for I-693 once they expire. A# or Alien Number is the equivalent of SSN for USCIS. It has to be different for all applicants.

Was your "Received Date" printed correctly in receipt notices?

Got it. Thank you Idliman; much appreciated. Fingers Crossed. :)

Yes, Received Dates are printed correctly in all the receipt notices.
03-09-2021, 11:25 AM
bikenlalan

With all the predictions I am hearing from multiple sources, it seems everyone is expecting EB2I to get to March-May 2011. I saw in a telegram group that two folks whose PD falls within Feb and May 2011 have received RFE for medicals and they applied in Oct 2020 with fingerprint completion in Dec 2020. It is strange that many folks who have applied long ago with PD 2010 have not even received RFE yet. It will all come down to processing capacity and whose applications will be complete/respond to RFE soon by the time the file is picked up for adjudication should get greened this FY.
03-09-2021, 11:37 AM
ak7419

Quote:

Originally Posted by bikenlalan

With all the predictions I am hearing from multiple sources, it seems everyone is expecting EB2I to get to March-May 2011. I saw in a telegram group that two folks whose PD falls within Feb and May 2011 have received RFE for medicals and they applied in Oct 2020 with fingerprint completion in Dec 2020. It is strange that many folks who have applied long ago with PD 2010 have not even received RFE yet. It will all come down to processing capacity and whose applications will be complete/respond to RFE soon by the time the file is picked up for adjudication should get greened this FY.

I am not sure on how they are issuing RFEs - I guess it depends on the service center. I am one of those with PD Sep 2009 who is current since November but have not received any RFE. I don't even know if my case is being handled by NSC or TSC - I just gave up at this point.
03-09-2021, 12:14 PM
iamdeb

Quote:

Originally Posted by bikenlalan

With all the predictions I am hearing from multiple sources, it seems everyone is expecting EB2I to get to March-May 2011. I saw in a telegram group that two folks whose PD falls within Feb and May 2011 have received RFE for medicals and they applied in Oct 2020 with fingerprint completion in Dec 2020. It is strange that many folks who have applied long ago with PD 2010 have not even received RFE yet. It will all come down to processing capacity and whose applications will be complete/respond to RFE soon by the time the file is picked up for adjudication should get greened this FY.

can you please clarify which source is predicting EB2I to get to March-May 2011? except for couple of folks in telegram group whose PD falls within Feb and May 2011 receiving RFEs for medicals, I haven't seen any reference to such a huge EB2I movement for upcoming month...
03-09-2021, 12:46 PM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by bikenlalan

With all the predictions I am hearing from multiple sources, it seems everyone is expecting EB2I to get to March-May 2011. I saw in a telegram group that two folks whose PD falls within Feb and May 2011 have received RFE for medicals and they applied in Oct 2020 with fingerprint completion in Dec 2020. It is strange that many folks who have applied long ago with PD 2010 have not even received RFE yet. It will all come down to processing capacity and whose applications will be complete/respond to RFE soon by the time the file is picked up for adjudication should get greened this FY.

I personally know one person got an RFE for I-693. One or 2 requests do not quantify or enable us to conclude that we have an year as forward movement. Unless we have a big flow of RFE requests like what was seen for early 2010 couple of months back, I will be skeptical. It is already 9th of March and the RFE's should have flown in last week.
03-09-2021, 12:58 PM
mr00us

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamdeb

can you please clarify which source is predicting EB2I to get to March-May 2011? except for couple of folks in telegram group whose PD falls within Feb and May 2011 receiving RFEs for medicals, I haven't seen any reference to such a huge EB2I movement for upcoming month...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent Spillover---->0(2009)*20(2010)*25(2011)*30(2011)*30(2012)*40(20 13)*60(2014)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB2 Left as of Oct 2020---->1000(2009)*16282(2010)*28786(2011)*28786(2011)*28 786(2011)*27732(2012)*29008(2013)*28650(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Down-port to EB3---->325.64(2009)*5757.2(2010-0%)*7196.5(2011-20%)*8635.8(2011-25%)*8319.6(2011-30%)*11603.2(2012)*17190(2013)*30234.74(2014)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Left in EB-2---->1000(2009)*15956(2010)*23029(2011)*21590(2011)*20 150(2011)*19412(2012)*17405(2013)*11460(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3 Left as of Oct 2020---->0(2009)*5514(2010)*6009(2011)*6010(2011)*6011(201 1)*4681(2012)*4973(2013)*5357(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In EB3 after down-port---->0(2009)*5840(2010)*11766(2011)*13207(2011)*14647( 2011)*13001(2012)*16576(2013)*22547(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB2 prediction---->1-May-11(20% 2011 down-port)*15-May-11(25% 2011 down-port)*1-Jun-11(30% 2011 down-port)**
EB3 prediction---->1-May-11(20% 2011 down-port)*15-Apr-11(25% 2011 down-port)*15-Mar-11(30% 2011 down-port)
* Provided USCIS does not waste any visas
* Projected 2020 numbers for FY 2021
* Multiplication factor of 2.4 used across the board
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source of I-140 Numbers: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q3_Q4.pdf
03-09-2021, 02:45 PM
bikenlalan

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamdeb

can you please clarify which source is predicting EB2I to get to March-May 2011? except for couple of folks in telegram group whose PD falls within Feb and May 2011 receiving RFEs for medicals, I haven't seen any reference to such a huge EB2I movement for upcoming month...

The predictions are not for the upcoming month but by the end of the FY (Sep 2021).
03-09-2021, 03:01 PM
LeoAugust

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr00us

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent Spillover---->0(2009)*20(2010)*25(2011)*30(2011)*30(2012)*40(20 13)*60(2014)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB2 Left as of Oct 2020---->1000(2009)*16282(2010)*28786(2011)*28786(2011)*28 786(2011)*27732(2012)*29008(2013)*28650(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Down-port to EB3---->325.64(2009)*5757.2(2010-0%)*7196.5(2011-20%)*8635.8(2011-25%)*8319.6(2011-30%)*11603.2(2012)*17190(2013)*30234.74(2014)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Left in EB-2---->1000(2009)*15956(2010)*23029(2011)*21590(2011)*20 150(2011)*19412(2012)*17405(2013)*11460(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3 Left as of Oct 2020---->0(2009)*5514(2010)*6009(2011)*6010(2011)*6011(201 1)*4681(2012)*4973(2013)*5357(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In EB3 after down-port---->0(2009)*5840(2010)*11766(2011)*13207(2011)*14647( 2011)*13001(2012)*16576(2013)*22547(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB2 prediction---->1-May-11(20% 2011 down-port)*15-May-11(25% 2011 down-port)*1-Jun-11(30% 2011 down-port)**
EB3 prediction---->1-May-11(20% 2011 down-port)*15-Apr-11(25% 2011 down-port)*15-Mar-11(30% 2011 down-port)
* Provided USCIS does not waste any visas
* Projected 2020 numbers for FY 2021
* Multiplication factor of 2.4 used across the board
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source of I-140 Numbers: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q3_Q4.pdf

34K i140 downgraded from Eb2-EB3(includes 2011/2012/2013/2014) from Oct-Dec 2020. In your calculation downgrades comes to 34k or less...
03-09-2021, 03:04 PM
1312011_eb2I

If USCIS is not issuing EAD , it may be a good sign.
You may get GC directly. Attorneys like RandN are already planning to sue if they waste visa.
03-09-2021, 03:12 PM
bikenlalan

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1312011_eb2I

If USCIS is not issuing EAD , it may be a good sign.
You may get GC directly. Attorneys like RandN are already planning to sue if they waste visa.

RN Law are one of the thugs in the litigation arena, I would not trust them to sue USCIS in good faith of the EB immigrants. Even if they do, it won't get them anything as USCIS can always use COVID as a reason to thwart the litigation.
Also, keep in mind the Siskind litigation back in 2015, it got nowhere.

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