EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

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Originally Posted by 19YRSNOGC

What does one think of this analysis from trackitt .At least some one spent time
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...1-with-121k-so

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Thanks "19YRSNOGC" . This is a great article posted by gcseeker1999 (1461) on trackitt.com (Link to his/her analysis ) . I am copying the summary below . What is scary here is that if they do the SO only from July to Sept they will be only issuing a fraction of the SO. The interview requirement will make sure that a majority of the Visas are wasted . All Please reach out to your members of congress to help expedite the process, I have a template pasted in my last post (01-23-2021, 06:24 PM). Without the USCIS moving FAD from next bulletin looks like we might not go beyond early-mid 2010 this fiscal . The trakitt thread by "gcseeker1999 (1461)" has played out 4 scenarios that are worth reading . Its about 7-8 mins read .

Summary:
"By law allocation of Family Based(FB) SpillOver(SO) GC gets added to entire Employment Based(EB) and proportionately divided across each category with 28.6 Percentage of total to EB1/2/3 and 7.1 for EB4/5. Further then the spilt of ROW/I/C/P/M/V depending on each Category. Most of allocations will be towards Rest of World(ROW) in each category and Oversubscribed country get limited to 7 PCT. Later on if there is unused/leftover in ROW , will be then distributed in last Quarter[July to September 2021] to oversubscribed countries. Hope it make sense. Say EB2, at the end of Quarter what ever EB2-ROW unused GC will go to both India and China and India will gets lions share as being the most retrogressed country. The signs of SpillOver(SO) to Oversubscribed countries if any, will be seen from May/June 2021 onwards."

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Originally Posted by 19YRSNOGC

What does one think of this analysis from trackitt .At least some one spent time
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...1-with-121k-so

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He is registered here, he recommended me Q blog few years back.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

He is registered here, he recommended me Q blog few years back.

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Good article. But one thing that needs to be added to the analysis is the USCIS step of getting a Visa Number allocated before issuing the GC. Extract from "THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM"

"At the beginning of each month, the Visa Office (VO) receives a report for each consular post listing totals of documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants in categories subject to numerical limitation. Cases are grouped by foreign state chargeability, preference, and priority date. No names are reported. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) demand for adjustment of status cases awaiting forward movement of the applicable cut-off date are reported to VO as the cases are preadjudicated. During the first week of each month, this documentarily qualified demand is tabulated."

"USCIS requests visa authorization for adjustment of status cases only when all required case processing has been completed."

The last step adds wait time to the process beyond USCIS control. There are many posts on Trackitt of folks who are current but have received a SR response stating that USCIS is waiting for Visa Availability.

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Originally Posted by idliman

Boss, it is not a Rocket Science and does not require an experienced attorney. If I were you, I will collect the approved PERM and match the SOC exactly and Title as much as possible. That is 50% or more of the "same or similar" justification. Then look at the job description in your PERM and make sure that you capture two or three points from that. That's it.

I work in a core engineering field. So a "Mechanical Engineer" cannot do an AC21 to a "Electrical Engineer" or "Civil Engineer". However there are Structural engineers in both Civil, Mechanical or Electrical Packaging side. Just match SOC and Job title as much as possible. Imagine you as an adjudicating officer who has no idea of what your IT position is. The AO is going to look for some common language to be comfortable to approve your I485J application. If you pay big bucks and hire an experienced attorney, they can probably justify that all are "Engineers" and eligible for AC21. It all depends on your situation.

That's why I have repeated a few times that everyone needs to have a copy of their PERM for later use in AC21. That helps a lot in AC21. You probably can write an excellent justification yourself and pass it on to your attorney as a start.

Also everyone needs to have the confidence to do an immigration form. Imagine a paralegal who is assisting an attorney. While most are excellent, there are some in the beginning stage and can do a lot of mistakes. It is our applications / forms and we need to make sure that we go through everything. I have asked for corrections in forms prepared even by an experienced attorney. You are paying for their services so your should make sure that the end product is worth it.

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couldn't agree more. Having a copy of PERM,140 & 485 would greatly help you in replying to SUPJ, etc., In my case, my company changed our immigration attorney, and it seems like while changing the law firm they didn't transfer the old files to the new law office. I got the RFE last month for medicals & SUPj, and the new law office asked me whether I had a copy of PERM & 485 so that they can start preparing the response otherwise I have to wait till they get my file from the old law office. It has been over a month and a half and we are still waiting for the information :-(

Spec / Gurus - isn't this recent report from usci s almost like the pending inventory:

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...em_2020_vF.pdf

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Originally Posted by usvisas

Spec / Gurus - isn't this recent report from usci s almost like the pending inventory:

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...em_2020_vF.pdf

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These are only Consular Processing statistics.

"EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCES
It is important to note that normally about eighty-five percent of all Employment preference
immigrants are processed as adjustment of status cases at USCIS offices. Cases pending with
USCIS are not counted in the consular waiting list tally which is presented below."

Good to see this reiterated again:
"Immigrant Waiting List
By Country
Immigrant visa issuances during fiscal year 2021 will be limited by the terms of INA 201 to no
more than 226,000 in the family-sponsored preferences and approximately 262,000 in the
employment-based preferences. "

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q3_Q4.pdf

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Originally Posted by Palver

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q3_Q4.pdf

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Spec perhaps you can help us. You always made me believe USCIS are the bad guys of immigration. What explains this when there are 140K extra visas available this year. Why do we only see allocation as if only regular quota is available?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Why do we only see allocation as if only regular quota is available?

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there's no allocation in those numbers. they are just approved 140's, 360's and 526's by pref category by country of birth.

(note that dependents are not included)

Guys Scenario 2 in Qtr 4- July to Sept
25235, Visa numbers will be available for EB2 -Nov/Dec 2010 FAD move
25235, Visa numbers will be available for EB3- Whole of 2011 will be cleared

How many of EB2 guys moved into EB3 queue with downporting
is the question how much eb3 FAD will move with all the downportings.

any rough idea guys

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Originally Posted by H1b2006

Guys Scenario 2 in Qtr 4- July to Sept
25235, Visa numbers will be available for EB2 -Nov/Dec 2010 FAD move
25235, Visa numbers will be available for EB3- Whole of 2011 will be cleared

How many of EB2 guys moved into EB3 queue with downporting
is the question how much eb3 FAD will move with all the downportings.

any rough idea guys

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You can discount the people who already have an EAD from 2012 with May 2010 from down porting. The chances of them still in H1B or with the same employer to initiate a EB2-3 downgrade is very rare.

However the people who applied for EAD after October 2018 might be still on H1 or with the original employer can be substantial and they can and will down grade. That is the reason EB3 has reached only April 1st 2010 for Feb bulletin. People after April 2010 got a chance to file for EAD only in October 2020 and many of them are still waiting for their receipts even today.

Any movement for this category is expected to happen only in the last quarter of 2021.

May 2010 - May 2011 filers in EB2 are the people who is on fence. If the spill over from EB1 happens, it will push the dates beyond Eb3 for a while.

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Originally Posted by usvisas

there's no allocation in those numbers. they are just approved 140's, 360's and 526's by pref category by country of birth.

(note that dependents are not included)

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I know that. My question was why do we see such levels of approved waiting for Visa when 140K extra visas are available.

Thanks Aceman, your PD and mine is almost days apart. iam 13 days ahead than you.

PD: EB2-I, 11 FEB 2011 i coudnt apply for 485 as i changed employer,

new employer applied for PWD, expecting PWD to be issued in Feb, onto Perm in EB3 by new employer in April, By Oct 2021 i should be ready to apply for I140 IF conditions favour if FAD is current by Nov/dec time periods for EB3, i can apply it and wait for GC.

FB to EB starts kicking in from Oct 2021.there should be some 75k-100k Spillover in 2022FY aswell.

I am debating whether to apply for i140 premium processing.
Filed a concurrent 485 with eb3 downgrade.
My Priority date is may 25 2011

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Originally Posted by H1b2006

Thanks Aceman, your PD and mine is almost days apart. iam 13 days ahead than you.

PD: EB2-I, 11 FEB 2011 i coudnt apply for 485 as i changed employer,

new employer applied for PWD, expecting PWD to be issued in Feb, onto Perm in EB3 by new employer in April, By Oct 2021 i should be ready to apply for I140 IF conditions favour if FAD is current by Nov/dec time periods for EB3, i can apply it and wait for GC.

FB to EB starts kicking in from Oct 2021.there should be some 75k-100k Spillover in 2022FY aswell.

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Good luck dear. Let?s hope this is our year. This would be the most favorable time because every other category except for China is current and with the consulates not processing visa, people are not expected to come in quickly.

I agree we might get similar numbers for 2022 as well, but with covid vaccination and open consulates the demand can go up. Also factor in lot of H1?s from 2020 and entire 2021 H1?s along with 2022 H1?s are going to be available by October 2021. This years H1 lottery might be an interesting watch in my opinion.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

You can discount the people who already have an EAD from 2012 with May 2010 from down porting. The chances of them still in H1B or with the same employer to initiate a EB2-3 downgrade is very rare.

However the people who applied for EAD after October 2018 might be still on H1 or with the original employer can be substantial and they can and will down grade. That is the reason EB3 has reached only April 1st 2010 for Feb bulletin. People after April 2010 got a chance to file for EAD only in October 2020 and many of them are still waiting for their receipts even today.

Any movement for this category is expected to happen only in the last quarter of 2021.

May 2010 - May 2011 filers in EB2 are the people who is on fence. If the spill over from EB1 happens, it will push the dates beyond Eb3 for a while.

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If spillover applies (god knows) then USCIS/DHS would try to bring eb2/eb3 closer to each other
Guessing eb3 dec2010 and eb2 oct 2010 for India

I just looked up Approved I140 numbers for EB2/EB3 India for 2010/2011/2012

In 2010
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-15,308(On a ballpark number lets say 6000 EB2 approved numbers from Jan 2010-May 2010 who will not port from EB2 to EB3). There is chance of 9300 EB2 applicants ported to EB3.
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-6,677 (

In 2011
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-22,286
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-6930

In 2012
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-22,308
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-4108

I would expect untill May 2011 EB2 downporting will be less, since they are able to Apply 485 AOS in Oct-Dec 2020 periods in EB2 itself.
it costed 10000$ per family to downport from EB2 to EB3 i thiink only 25% of folks might have spent 10K USD and applied in EB3 in those 3 months.

Yeah, I'd agree. Most of the downgrades will be after May 2011. But for one data point, my PD is Sep-2012 and I couldn't/didn't downgrade. If I were to guess I'd say maybe 50% downgraded after May-2011 with the proportion increasing with the year of PD

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Originally Posted by Palver

If I were to guess I'd say maybe 50% downgraded after May-2011 with the proportion increasing with the year of PD

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I think so too

Here are the Approved I-140 numbers for EB2/EB3 India for 2010/2011/2012/2013/2014/2015/2016

In 2010
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-15,308(On a ballpark number lets say 6000 EB2 approved numbers from Jan 2010-May 2010 who will not port from EB2 to EB3). There is chance of 9300 EB2 applicants ported to EB3.
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-6,677 (

In 2011
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-22,286
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-6930

In 2012
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-22,308
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-4108

In 2013
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-21,444
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-3,457

In 2014
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-25,635
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-3,879

In 2015
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-32,699
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-6,453

2016
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-49,035
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-10,177

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

These are only Consular Processing statistics. "

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Terrible oversight on my part (as I expected). A 127% increase in EB3 CP - wow. That doesn't bode well for EB3 when consulates open, I would think.

EB3I - 36,524!!

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Originally Posted by usvisas

Terrible oversight on my part (as I expected). A 127% increase in EB3 CP - wow. That doesn't bode well for EB3 when consulates open, I would think.

EB3I - 36,524!!

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Agree but as of today US consulates are working very slowly plus the travel ban thru March 2021. That might impact new PERM filings. So my assumption there would be good spill over as well to EB next FY. However from FY 2023 there will be significant set back to all employment categories as consulates starting to function normal business and would take significant chunk of yearly allotted EB visas and backlog would linger for a lifetime

I may be wrong on my assumptions

Wow
If we assume in 2010- eb2 to b3 downgrade r 9300 then adding to 6677 pending eb3. That should be around 15977 primary applicant and around 31000
Including dependent. That also means If consulate open all over world with full fledge( which might not happen till June or July)then very limited lateral spillover will happen.

With 100K spillover from FB to EB in Q1 2022 FY finial action dates will move 6 months for EB3 and 3 months for EB2 but the Question is whether filing dates open again in Q1 2022 FY.

guys like me who changed employers will we be able to file again in Q1 2022

my only hope is how much Q4 2021 spillover moves dates for EB3 and then Q1 Final action dates moves for Q1 2022 peiod.

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Originally Posted by H1b2006

With 100K spillover from FB to EB in Q1 2022 FY finial action dates will move 6 months for EB3 and 3 months for EB2 but the Question is whether filing dates open again in Q1 2022 FY.

guys like me who changed employers will we be able to file again in Q1 2022

my only hope is how much Q4 2021 spillover moves dates for EB3 and then Q1 Final action dates moves for Q1 2022 peiod.

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I think looking Q1 2022 beyond a potential spill of 100K+ from FB is too early now. Any kind of valid predictions can be done only after July 2021 bulletin.

Regarding filing date accepted for FY 2022. For it to happen if Eb2 final dates has to go past 2010 and Eb3 has to pass 2014. Big ask.

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Originally Posted by H1b2006

With 100K spillover from FB to EB in Q1 2022 FY finial action dates will move 6 months for EB3 and 3 months for EB2 but the Question is whether filing dates open again in Q1 2022 FY.

guys like me who changed employers will we be able to file again in Q1 2022

my only hope is how much Q4 2021 spillover moves dates for EB3 and then Q1 Final action dates moves for Q1 2022 peiod.

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If they follow the law as written, they will use all the spillover. I know I am skeptical too because of the massive amount of numbers available to use, but let's give the new admin a chance before we start throwing bricks at them. We can either be hopeful and optimistic or miserable moving forward. I admit I also get into these dark phases periodically where I think it's all going to get wasted and honestly I am not thinking this just from my perspective; I am in a lot better shape with May 2010 PD than other in 2012, 2013 etc who are looking at extraordinarily long wait times compared to those of us in 2010 so that's whom I have concern for. So hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

If they follow the law as written, they will use all the spillover..

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I agree. the last bulletin forecasted movement until May. I'd be patient until then. By then, I am expecting the new admin to get settled in with clear directions provided to dhs, uscis, etc..too

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Originally Posted by AceMan

I think looking Q1 2022 beyond a potential spill of 100K+ from FB is too early now. Any kind of valid predictions can be done only after July 2021 bulletin.

Regarding filing date accepted for FY 2022. For it to happen if Eb2 final dates has to go past 2010 and Eb3 has to pass 2014. Big ask.

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I think EB2 clearing 2010 is not that big of an ask after all. I don't know about 2014 for EB3 that can happen if it pours cats and dogs.

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Originally Posted by Zenzone

Bingo...Just now our 765/131 statuses both changed to "case was approved".

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Jus a quick update folks...we received our EAD/AP card combo (1-yr. validity) by mail on 1/22.

Here is my timeline (so far...) -

RD - 10/22 - EB2
Biometrics - 1/8
I-765/I-131 case approval - 1/14
EAD/AP Card received - 1/22
National Benefits Center

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Originally Posted by Zenzone

I think EB2 clearing 2010 is not that big of an ask after all. I don't know about 2014 for EB3 that can happen if it pours cats and dogs.

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I have the same view about EB-2 but for EB-3 I think it is not possible that it advances so far out compared to EB-2. If it does, aren't they going to get 1000s of concurrent filings from EB-2 folks who haven't already downgraded? Maybe it will happen for 1 month and retrogress severely?

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Originally Posted by Zenzone

Jus a quick update folks...we received our EAD/AP card combo (1-yr. validity) by mail on 1/22.

Here is my timeline (so far...) -

RD - 10/22 - EB2
Biometrics - 1/8
I-765/I-131 case approval - 1/14
EAD/AP Card received - 1/22
National Benefits Center

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Congrats on your EAD/AP approval. Welcome to the Trishanku status. Make sure that you browse through our EAD/AP thread to setup reminders for timely renewal in 6 months time.

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Originally Posted by Zenzone

Jus a quick update folks...we received our EAD/AP card combo (1-yr. validity) by mail on 1/22.

Here is my timeline (so far...) -

RD - 10/22 - EB2
Biometrics - 1/8
I-765/I-131 case approval - 1/14
EAD/AP Card received - 1/22
National Benefits Center

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One thing I am unabe to understand is why are we seeing combo card approvals with one year validity instead of two year? Is not that being non-productive since most of these candidates may not receive their green cards by the time their combo card expires?

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Originally Posted by ak7419

One thing I am unabe to understand is why are we seeing combo card approvals with one year validity instead of two year? Is not that being non-productive since most of these candidates may not receive their green cards by the time their combo card expires?

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This is USCIS standard practice. Even 2012 EAD filers also got only 1 year EAD/AP, the first time.

Consider it like this. The reason why you are doing "DF" based AOS application is the expectation/prediction from USCIS that your PD will become "FA" current in one year time. So using that logic they approve only 1 year EAD/AP for the first time. For renewals, you can request a 2 year validity if your "FA" is not current.

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Originally Posted by idliman

This is USCIS standard practice. Even 2012 EAD filers also got only 1 year EAD/AP, the first time.

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That is not entirely correct. I am a 2012 filer and all my combo cards were for two years except the most recent one which was approved last month.

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Originally Posted by ak7419

That is not entirely correct. I am a 2012 filer and all my combo cards were for two years except the most recent one which was approved last month.

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My comment was for the very first EAD/AP that is sent together with I485 package. Was your very first EAD issued for 1 year or 2 years? If it was for 2 years consider yourself very lucky.

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Originally Posted by Zenzone

I think EB2 clearing 2010 is not that big of an ask after all. I don't know about 2014 for EB3 that can happen if it pours cats and dogs.

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For a category which has been moving few days every month for more than 2 years, it is a big ask to pass 2009, let alone 2010. 4 days is what it moved for February 2021. If you count from October 2020 for 5 months it moved 48 days.

It is a huge ask.

May2010 EB2 india got RFE for medicals. Indication that EB2 May2010 FAD movement very much on the cards.
if EB2 I moves to May, shoudnt we add 6 months --Nov 2010 for EB3.

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Originally Posted by H1b2006

May2010 EB2 india got RFE for medicals. Indication that EB2 May2010 FAD movement very much on the cards.
if EB2 I moves to May, shoudnt we add 6 months --Nov 2010 for EB3.

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Let the eggs hatch my dear. We can talk about chicken Biriyani?s later. Lot of people from 2010 got RFE in 2018 and we had planned a buffet with lot of chicken dishes. Little did we know USCIS chickened us out.

So when the dates actually move, then we can start cooking.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Let the eggs hatch my dear. We can talk about chicken Biriyani?s later. Lot of people from 2010 got RFE in 2018 and we had planned a buffet with lot of chicken dishes. Little did we know USCIS chickened us out.

So when the dates actually move, then we can start cooking.

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Ha ha ! Can;t stop ROFL ! We are too gullible lot .. these small indicators/ hopes keeps us sane... don't take this away from us ! Lets enjoy till the next visa bulletine crushes our soul again.