Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

This article is discussing what I was asking earlier. It is Leadership vs Representatives. If Boehner has courage to live up to the occasion and leave his love for the job behind, it would be good for the party and country.

http://www.ibtimes.com/immigration-r...roblem-1342483

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Originally Posted by Ramsen

Bohner told many times that even compromise bill from conference committee needs to have the support of majority of majority. That rules out any bill which has special pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. It is likely that Hastert rule will kill the bill.

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Political posturing. He has gone back on those words several times on other bills to get them passed in the larger interest of party. Once an immigration bill comes out of conference committee, it will defnitely pass both houses, if it gets thus far. Otherwise, they will never fix this issue for years to come unless either party gains control of all 3 legislative bodies(house/senate/white house), which is very bleak.

Good summary of 5 reasons why immigration reform has problems in the house.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/11/politi...ngs/index.html

Pelosi On Immigration Reform: We’ll Save Hardball For Later. She is giving the hint that she would reserve the option of discharge petition for later.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...-for-later.php

Different take on gloom and doom on immigration reform.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_3573669.html

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Originally Posted by rupen86

This article is discussing what I was asking earlier. It is Leadership vs Representatives. If Boehner has courage to live up to the occasion and leave his love for the job behind, it would be good for the party and country.

http://www.ibtimes.com/immigration-r...roblem-1342483

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It's unfair to expect Boehner to sacrifice his job by going against the will of his caucus. He has done his job in clearly saying the fact that party will be much weaker if they do not act in a meaningful way. Blame the Tea party if nothing happens out of it in the end and not Boehner.

The fundamental issue is that USA is very wide sharing miles of border with Mexico. So border security under any president is not going to easy to solve. I think the measures in the Senate bill are reasonable. Its unfair to compare CIR with the Reagen's bill because that was a 100% pure amnesty bill.

I don't think E Verify is going to work either all by itself. Even if you mandate it, its the job of E Verify to conduct audits to find if an employer is hiring illegal immigrants. That requires man power and whole lot of other resources. That will collapse once you are talking about farming, meat processing and other commodities industries. E Verify will work well only if border is secure and US border is not easy to secure.

So if everything is going to be pinned on border security, there is no hope of CIR even in 2025.

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Originally Posted by idiotic

It's unfair to expect Boehner to sacrifice his job by going against the will of his caucus. He has done his job in clearly saying the fact that party will be much weaker if they do not act in a meaningful way. Blame the Tea party if nothing happens out of it in the end and not Boehner.

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I don't agree. The leader is always held accountable. Agreed he may not win the battle but he needs to go beyond talk. For every positive statement he has made, he has 5 negative statements. If Paul Ryan has the stones to be an advocate why can't Boehner be a leader and drive some of the process rather than be driven by the nut jobs.

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Originally Posted by axecapone

The fundamental issue is that USA is very wide sharing miles of border with Mexico. So border security under any president is not going to easy to solve. I think the measures in the Senate bill are reasonable. Its unfair to compare CIR with the Reagen's bill because that was a 100% pure amnesty bill.

I don't think E Verify is going to work either all by itself. Even if you mandate it, its the job of E Verify to conduct audits to find if an employer is hiring illegal immigrants. That requires man power and whole lot of other resources. That will collapse once you are talking about farming, meat processing and other commodities industries. E Verify will work well only if border is secure and US border is not easy to secure.

So if everything is going to be pinned on border security, there is no hope of CIR even in 2025.

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No solution is going to work all by itself. It has to be a combination of things. You prevent illegals from coming in and make sure people who are supposed to leave actually go. Then you taken away the reason why people come here in the first place - work.

I agree that audits and such are going to be tough in certain industries. Same thing with day labor where they get paid with cash (like today). but you can't say its tough so we won't do it at all.

Hope for CIR is in the genuine belief that people want to do the right thing for America and not just for themselves. There are certain people who truly don't want reform and then there are others who want reform but are afraid for their jobs. Cant blame the latter category but until that changes, its going to be tough sledding. I think the only real chance for CIR is the House Democrats taking matters in their own hands. Otherwise, its going to die. No House votes will happen till Sept and then things will drag on till the Christmas recess. Nothing will happen in any lame duck session and before you know it, its election season.

I really wish, the Republican party splits up because they are killing themselves. I personally am a fiscal Republican and a social Democrat. But if the Republican party splits in to more centrist folks (the Lincoln Republicans) and the nut jobs (aka Tea Party), then I might actually shift my thinking. I'm sure there are a LOT of immigrants who think that way. Most immigrants IMO are open minded to reality but deep down are conservative on certain issues. I'll get off my soap box now. thanks for listening :)

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Originally Posted by idiotic

It's unfair to expect Boehner to sacrifice his job by going against the will of his caucus. He has done his job in clearly saying the fact that party will be much weaker if they do not act in a meaningful way. Blame the Tea party if nothing happens out of it in the end and not Boehner.

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He is the only person who can bring the bill for vote and he is surrendering to tea party not because he agrees with them but because he wants to keep his job. It is ok for normal person to behave that way but having hold such a post, this behavior does not make him good speaker when he himself has agreed with immigration reform as a good thing. On the other hand, GOP leadership should provide him cover and enable him to bring bill for a vote if they believe it is a good thing for the party.

GOP leadership (McConnell) is more concerned about making Obama fail than anything else. Not immigration bill, not jobs bill, not anything else really.

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Originally Posted by rupen86

On the other hand, GOP leadership should provide him cover and enable him to bring bill for a vote if they believe it is a good thing for the party.

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Originally Posted by rupen86

He is the only person who can bring the bill for vote and he is surrendering to tea party not because he agrees with them but because he wants to keep his job. It is ok for normal person to behave that way but having hold such a post, this behavior does not make him good speaker when he himself has agreed with immigration reform as a good thing. On the other hand, GOP leadership should provide him cover and enable him to bring bill for a vote if they believe it is a good thing for the party.

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I feel the Boehner is consistenet with his stance. He supports immigration. Immigration is a collective term for illegal immigration and legal immigration. Boehner just said he supports immigration. This does not mean he supports citizenship for undocumented.

It is not correct to hold him accountable.

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Originally Posted by rupen86

Pelosi On Immigration Reform: We’ll Save Hardball For Later. She is giving the hint that she would reserve the option of discharge petition for later.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...-for-later.php

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Getting 50% vote for moving discharge petition is also tough. If we can think about it then the republicans in the house surely can also think about it. Democrats need at least 17-18 republicans to move the discharge petition.

I had a question about the piecemeal approach. I am sure Republicans will pass all that is in the Senate bill for skilled workers like us. In the event they go to conference with differences only on path to citizenship of undocumented workers, then what will be the outcome of conference ?

Can the conference pass at least the part that both Dems and Repubs agree upon ?

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Originally Posted by rupen86

He is the only person who can bring the bill for vote and he is surrendering to tea party not because he agrees with them but because he wants to keep his job. It is ok for normal person to behave that way but having hold such a post, this behavior does not make him good speaker when he himself has agreed with immigration reform as a good thing. On the other hand, GOP leadership should provide him cover and enable him to bring bill for a vote if they believe it is a good thing for the party.

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Tell me clearly what do you want Boehner to do :

=> Bring S.744 to house vote immediately. (This cannot procedurally happen because we all know Reid has not yet sent S.744 to house yet. Formal reason is all revenue bills must originate from House)
=> Bring House republicans bill (CIR equivalent -- bunch of piece meal bills solving the immigration problem).. (This is what is going on now except that the piecemeal bills are not complete and there are problems which are completely unaddressed yet)
=> Do nothing and let immigration reform die (He did not do that clearly even though it may be tea party stance.)

Also remember immigration reform is one of the problems for Boehner not the "only" problem. For someone to suggest he has to put his job on line for one issue is unfair. He has to mediate solutions for all issues and get some legislation done for the country. That is his job.

Guys ... my quick opinion on Boehner and then I will shut on Boehner.

Boehner is absolutely inconsequential. He just doesn't have anything in him. Show me one legislation where he rallied his troops and/or worked across the aisle to make anything happen. Show me one example.

So don't even waste time talking about Boehner. It's McConnell and other GOP stalwarts who will move things. Luckily McCain and the Bush Jr have thrown their weight behind CIR (McCain directly - Bush Jr indirectly). So work positively and make calls to republicans congressmen in your district and ask them to support CIR.

Better yes ... somebody write a letter and post to this forum for everybody to print and sign and send to your congressman - regardless which party. The severely backlogged folks are 50K or more. If 50K letters go to congressmen... it is very powerful.

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Originally Posted by idiotic

Also remember immigration reform is one of the problems for Boehner not the "only" problem. For someone to suggest he has to put his job on line for one issue is unfair. He has to mediate solutions for all issues and get some legislation done for the country. That is his job.

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This is the standard excuse by the Congress. They say priority is economy, jobs and debt. I want to know what they have passed so far. The previous Congress had the reputation of being the most unproductive one in its history (or atleast one of the most unproductive ones if my facts are incorrect) and this one is not far away from beating that goal.

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Originally Posted by axecapone

This is the standard excuse by the Congress. They say priority is economy, jobs and debt. I want to know what they have passed so far. The previous Congress had the reputation of being the most unproductive one in its history (or atleast one of the most unproductive ones if my facts are incorrect) and this one is not far away from beating that goal.

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What does this has to do with the original question that "Tell me what you want Boehner to do"?

To fight for high skilled immigration backlog and lose his job ??

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Originally Posted by idiotic

What does this has to do with the original question that "Tell me what you want Boehner to do"?

To fight for high skilled immigration backlog and lose his job ??

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If he loses his job by bringing the bill to floor, he is still a winner. He might loose his job, but will be remembered as the bold speaker who sacrificed his job for betterment for the immigrants. I am sure millions who will be legalized by this bill will remember him in their lifetime and generations to come.

What would he want ? A short term job or a legacy ?

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Originally Posted by idiotic

What does this has to do with the original question that "Tell me what you want Boehner to do"?

To fight for high skilled immigration backlog and lose his job ??

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Fight for high skill immigration ? That's a joke. No one would even fight for high skill immigration. Forget about fighting for that and loosing job. I am asking him to fight for his party and nation if he feels it is going to be beneficial which he has said it is.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

So work positively and make calls to republicans congressmen in your district and ask them to support CIR.

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Which CIR are you taking about ?

You can call the congressmen and tell your story and what you think would help. I personally think individual stories will have more impact over the robotic repeated message suggested by a well known site, but I could be wrong.

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Originally Posted by rupen86

Fight for high skill immigration ? That's a joke. No one would even fight for high skill immigration. Forget about fighting for that and loosing job.

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Correct. It was a joke. Glad that we are on the same page here.

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Originally Posted by rupen86

I am asking him to fight for his party and nation if he feels it is going to be beneficial which he has said it is.

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How?

Another interesting development and tough to judge in the present time if this will help or hinder CIR in the long run

http://news.msn.com/us/janet-napolit...ocid=ansnews11

As far as Speaker Boehner is concerned-it is his prerogative to decide what Bill to bring to the floor and when just like Senator Reid in the Senate. I have not seen any Bill brought to the Senate Floor by Sen.Reid that would pass with the help of a majority of Republican Senators. Caucus unity is key for either party and procedures like discharge petitions are pure fantasy. Speaker Boehner has no choice but to wait till his caucus coalesces around a reasonably united strategy to deal with immigration reform because at this time the GOP viewpoints are all over the place. One member on the House Judiciary to watch is Spencer Bachus of Alabama who might help bring some other conservatives around to the citizenship path as he has clearly stated he does not like the idea of a huge swath of second-class citizens

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Originally Posted by gcq

If he loses his job by bringing the bill to floor, he is still a winner. He might loose his job, but will be remembered as the bold speaker who sacrificed his job for betterment for the immigrants. I am sure millions who will be legalized by this bill will remember him in their lifetime and generations to come.

What would he want ? A short term job or a legacy ?

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gcq,

Even though we might be intersted in doing lot of good things how many of us are willing to sacrifice our job and livelihood for those things? When we won't do something ourselves, its not fair to expect it from others.

It's the people who block the good things need to take the blame.. not the people who didn't do enough :)

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Originally Posted by gs1968

Another interesting development and tough to judge in the present time if this will help or hinder CIR in the long run

http://news.msn.com/us/janet-napolit...ocid=ansnews11

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I thought she resigning was intended to be a good thing for CIR in short term as they can put a nominee who is agreeable to both parties as new head, Right now she is face of administration not being credible even though I do not agree with that.

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Originally Posted by gs1968

As far as Speaker Boehner is concerned-it is his prerogative to decide what Bill to bring to the floor and when just like Senator Reid in the Senate. I have not seen any Bill brought to the Senate Floor by Sen.Reid that would pass with the help of a majority of Republican Senators. Caucus unity is key for either party and procedures like discharge petitions are pure fantasy. Speaker Boehner has no choice but to wait till his caucus coalesces around a reasonably united strategy to deal with immigration reform because at this time the GOP viewpoints are all over the place. One member on the House Judiciary to watch is Spencer Bachus of Alabama who might help bring some other conservatives around to the citizenship path as he has clearly stated he does not like the idea of a huge swath of second-class citizens

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Completely agree.

I think that question is so stupid it doesn't warrant an answer. Is there any other CIR you are aware of that all of us don't?

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Originally Posted by rupen86

Which CIR are you taking about ?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think that question is so stupid it doesn't warrant an answer. Is there any other CIR you are aware of that all of us don't?

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May be you have some inside knowledge that I and others do not. Anyone who is tracking immigration knows that house is not tacking up senate CIR and there is no house CIR yet. So which CIR are you talking about? I thought I did not have to elaborate question but am stupid to assume that.

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Originally Posted by idiotic

Correct. It was a joke. Glad that we are on the same page here.



How?

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By bringing senate bill for vote

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Originally Posted by idiotic

gcq,

Even though we might be intersted in doing lot of good things how many of us are willing to sacrifice our job and livelihood for those things? When we won't do something ourselves, its not fair to expect it from others.

It's the people who block the good things need to take the blame.. not the people who didn't do enough :)

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I am assuming not having speaker position is not the question of livelihood for person like Boehner.

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Originally Posted by rupen86

By bringing senate bill for vote

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Good luck.. I do not want to take this further as it is already discussed many times in this forum.

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Originally Posted by rupen86

I am assuming not having speaker position is not the question of livelihood for person like Boehner.

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Wrong assumption.. Whatever one does for an living is their livelihood.. Everyone will want to climb up the ladder in career chain and not climb down for earning an living.

It's not correct for us to expect and assume what they should be doing instead..

Let others say what they know and don't. You speak for yourself.

If you don't understand something I say - ask nicely and you will get all honest answers from me. But if you ask in a condescending manners such as "What CIR" then good luck - I am not interested in a dialogue with you.

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Originally Posted by rupen86

May be you have some inside knowledge that I and others do not. Anyone who is tracking immigration knows that house is not tacking up senate CIR and there is no house CIR yet. So which CIR are you talking about? I thought I did not have to elaborate question but am stupid to assume that.

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Sport- Your line of thinking is right. But in this particular case Obama views this as his legacy and democratic party senses an opportunity solidify their base for next generation or two. That's why they absolutely want this done.

The thing is - not having it done is not a big blow for them because with the bipartisan senate bill - they can already claim victory.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

My 2 cents. If the democrats really wanted, passage of CIR in the house is a near certainty.

Think about it. All the democrats could vote along the party line. They would need 30 Republicans or so. Is it really difficult? I would say no.

However Democrats are in no urgency because they must be sensing a lot of anger from the white American voter. Remember them? Republicans take the white vote at 54-46 split, but the Dems do need that 46%...else, they won't be in power.

They need to play this carefully too. They have just done whatever they could in the Senate and are in a grand posturing mode now.

Sorry to be negative again...I don't see the CIR being passed and if it does get through at all, Dems will sure lose in the next election.

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Originally Posted by idiotic

gcq,

Even though we might be intersted in doing lot of good things how many of us are willing to sacrifice our job and livelihood for those things? When we won't do something ourselves, its not fair to expect it from others.

It's the people who block the good things need to take the blame.. not the people who didn't do enough :)

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He is not going to lose his job ( congressman). He may lose the speaker title in short term. But once CIR is signed by president, he will be the hero again. All the GOP members who oppose it now will turn around praising him. If they don't praise him post CIR, those house members will be history in near future. All what speaker need to do is allow the senate bill to come to floor. It is guaranteed to pass in the house and president will definitely sign it. Speaker is kind of "switch" between CIR enactment and failure. The moment he changes his stand, it is a done deal.

I think it will ultimately happen, let us give it some time for pressure to build up on GOP.

I agree - If CIR is not passed, DEMs will loose for sure as they would get the blame of not supporting enough.
REP allways have a steady base and also could project present incumbent party's mistakes in next elections.

Frankly both parties would want CIR - but take credit some-how to thier side?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Sport- Your line of thinking is right. But in this particular case Obama views this as his legacy and democratic party senses an opportunity solidify their base for next generation or two. That's why they absolutely want this done.

The thing is - not having it done is not a big blow for them because with the bipartisan senate bill - they can already claim victory.

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Originally Posted by gcq

He is not going to lose his job ( congressman). He may lose the speaker title in short term. But once CIR is signed by president, he will be the hero again. All the GOP members who oppose it now will turn around praising him. If they don't praise him post CIR, those house members will be history in near future. All what speaker need to do is allow the senate bill to come to floor. It is guaranteed to pass in the house and president will definitely sign it. Speaker is kind of "switch" between CIR enactment and failure. The moment he changes his stand, it is a done deal.

I think it will ultimately happen, let us give it some time for pressure to build up on GOP.

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Unfortunately that's not the way things work in American politics..

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Originally Posted by idiotic

Unfortunately that's not the way things work in American politics..

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Need more proof about the "switch" factor ? Watch this video. It also has lot of information about the dynamics of CIR.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3x4-xRBcpU

WSJ reported today that "Congressmen Eric Cantor and Bob Goodlatte Are Crafting Legislation on Citizenship Path for People Brought to U.S. Illegally as Children" and that a consensus is emerging in GOP for that particular set of people.

The question I have us if house crafts a few piecemeal bills like these (assuming including one for skilled immigrants) and starts sending them to Senate (again assuming that they don't want to reconcile with Senate CIR in a conference), what happens then ?
What are the possible options. Basically what would the process look like if house stays adamant on not taking up CIR at all. Is there any chance democrats will budge and say that we have 50% of what we want in these bills so let us get that or will they do the same thing they did to HR3012 and not take up these bills at all.

Is there any possibility of partial immigration reform if CIR dies. Just want to see what people think.

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Originally Posted by GhostWriter

WSJ reported today that "Congressmen Eric Cantor and Bob Goodlatte Are Crafting Legislation on Citizenship Path for People Brought to U.S. Illegally as Children" and that a consensus is emerging in GOP for that particular set of people.

The question I have us if house crafts a few piecemeal bills like these (assuming including one for skilled immigrants) and starts sending them to Senate (again assuming that they don't want to reconcile with Senate CIR in a conference), what happens then ?
What are the possible options. Basically what would the process look like if house stays adamant on not taking up CIR at all. Is there any chance democrats will budge and say that we have 50% of what we want in these bills so let us get that or will they do the same thing they did to HR3012 and not take up these bills at all.

Is there any possibility of partial immigration reform if CIR dies. Just want to see what people think.

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I guess whatever bill house sends to senate won't have the items democrats want, illegal immigration component specifically. If that component is missing they are not going to accept it. If house tries to strip off illegal component of it, democrats may try to strip off the high skilled component of it as a tit-for-tat response. Once the bill is stripped of components that interests both sides, nobody would be interested in pushing that bill anymore. Net result, CIR fails. That is why senate bipartisan group was careful to put up a balanced package.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Let others say what they know and don't. You speak for yourself.

If you don't understand something I say - ask nicely and you will get all honest answers from me. But if you ask in a condescending manners such as "What CIR" then good luck - I am not interested in a dialogue with you.

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"I think that question is so stupid it doesn't warrant an answer. Is there any other CIR you are aware of that all of us don't?"
Here all of us means you are also talking about all. So according to your advice, you also speak for yourself.

This is not the first time, you have talked about CIR and not the first time I have asked. If by me just asking "what CIR are you talking about" looks bad manners to you, yours is much more bad manners when you say question is stupid.

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Originally Posted by gcq

He is not going to lose his job ( congressman). He may lose the speaker title in short term. But once CIR is signed by president, he will be the hero again. All the GOP members who oppose it now will turn around praising him. If they don't praise him post CIR, those house members will be history in near future. All what speaker need to do is allow the senate bill to come to floor. It is guaranteed to pass in the house and president will definitely sign it. Speaker is kind of "switch" between CIR enactment and failure. The moment he changes his stand, it is a done deal.

I think it will ultimately happen, let us give it some time for pressure to build up on GOP.

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I agree that he will still remain congressman. He looses job as speaker. If he has more broader aspirations, this might help him in that also. But I do not think he will take this risk. Some people want to play safe and kind of happy where they are.