EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by may2011

Hello All,

I am new to this forum.First and foremost I would like all the gurus and pandits for your posts and analyses. They have really helped me understand the process of GC allocation.

I apologize for the long rant, but I would really appreciate some advice and suggestions.My PD is May 2011 (EB2-India)

Prior to Oct 2020, I had given up on getting a GC in my lifetime. I had made up my mind to move to Canada mainly for stability and the ease of travel to India.The spillover and the prediction by 'whereismygc' have rekindled some hope in me .I am mainly concerned about the following issues;

1) If my i485 is rejected due to clerical errors in the form, do I lose my line in the GC queue?In Oct 2020, my employer filed for 1000s of AOS and I am concerned about filing errors by the law firm due to sheer volume of applications.

2)Can an administration introduce more requirements for conversion from EAD to GC?The previous administration introduced the 'Public Charge Rule'.Most H1Bs won't be affected by it, but still I am wary about a future rule by a conservative administration.Basically I am worried about being on EAD for 5+ years and then being denied.

3)Am I being paranoid or are my concerns valid?I really don't understand what to do.Should I go for the bird in hand (Canadian PR) or pursue the two bird in the bush?I have to move to Canada by Jan 2023 to maintain my PR.

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Welcome to forum. EAD to GC as in adj of status to GC is never a problem .. the only requirement is for your latest employer to fill out 485J. Your second concern is about public charge rule or similar things ... I think with Biden admin your should not worry about anything NEW that is against immigrants.

I do however want to caution you regarding your canadian PR. Do not leave US. Because if you try to come back on AP and while holding canadian PR then US immigration has in the past refused entry to people who applied and obtained canadian PR. Just google and read their experiences.

Nothing to overly worry about. But just wanted you to be aware of this.

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

If the primary I-485 is rejected say after 2-3 months like what's happening right now, can it really be resubmitted when the Filing Dates are no longer being accepted?

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If it's a USCIS error, it can of course be filed even if Filing Dates are no longer accepted. Others may also want to consider litigation (not sure of the timeline it takes to get the decision), saying if the applications were rejected in a timely manner, the applicants could always have refiled their petition as the filing dates were accepted for 2-3 months based on their PD.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Welcome to forum. EAD to GC as in adj of status to GC is never a problem .. the only requirement is for your latest employer to fill out 485J. Your second concern is about public charge rule or similar things ... I think with Biden admin your should not worry about anything NEW that is against immigrants.

I do however want to caution you regarding your canadian PR. Do not leave US. Because if you try to come back on AP and while holding canadian PR then US immigration has in the past refused entry to people who applied and obtained canadian PR. Just google and read their experiences.

Nothing to overly worry about. But just wanted you to be aware of this.

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Thanks for letting me know.I will check their experiences.

there are many folks in 2010/2011 went back to India, loosing hope of GC. they dont have latest w2's for last 2-3 yrs which they ask for GC interview or paystubs and might even changed employers WITCH to non WITCH and old H1Bs expired.

do these guys have a chance if thier old employers are not taking them back, find new emp and apply for H1b extension with new employer file perm,i140 and then file I485 J.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

I love to rub on the Eb2 I guys just for the fun of it. Back in 2009 I had my Masters and all the qualifications for Eb2 however the position required only 3 years experience with a degree. So I had to take Eb3, while lot of my contract coworkers even with a lower salary got in Eb2. Call it jealousy or whatever, but one of the guys rubbed me in the wrong way. He stated money does not make it. Eb2 is exceptional and like Royals, Eb3 is a commoner and a plebeian. They are classified along with unskilled in pure Haryanvi language :-).

Very funny and highly impactful!!!

Fast forward 5 years and couple of promotions later around 2015 end, I wanted to upgrade to Eb2 and started collecting the details for the same. At the same time I started following Trackitt and found out people were moving heavily from Eb3 to Eb2. That was the same time when filing date was introduced and the changed the bulletin to pull back filing date. Later in 2016 Eb2 got only about 7000 visas. Eb1 was growing in popularity. It was during the peak time of Eb1 abuse claims by Eb2 guys along with Eb1B candidates egging them. I did my detailed research and found that 90% of the Eb2 applicants had their credentials and back ground which should have really been in Eb3.

So it makes me happy to see ghar vapasi by these prodigal children!!!! And lot of them still think they are going back to Eb2. The same attitude shown by my then co worker.

The icing in the cake was my chance to remind my Eb2 co worker who had a November 2010 PD about his words. Both of us applied for AOS at around same time and both of us are still waiting for finger print.

I love to add another anecdote here, the solution to fix a water leak is not adding more water to the problem!!!

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I feel you on your frustration, and believe me , the frustration is not very unique to you. But statistics of 90% EB2 actually being EB3 is far fetched.
Anyways, I should have just let you vent out by your frustrations, instead of trying to argue on any points.

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Originally Posted by H1b2006

there are many folks in 2010/2011 went back to India, loosing hope of GC. they dont have latest w2's for last 2-3 yrs which they ask for GC interview or paystubs and might even changed employers WITCH to non WITCH and old H1Bs expired.

do these guys have a chance if thier old employers are not taking them back, find new emp and apply for H1b extension with new employer file perm,i140 and then file I485 J.

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Question : what's a WITCH employer?

Indian Desi companies- Wipro/Infy/TCS/Cognizant/HCL

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Originally Posted by H1b2006

Indian Desi companies- Wipro/Infy/TCS/Cognizant/HCL

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okay. Thank you for the clarification :)

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Originally Posted by vsivarama

If it's a USCIS error, it can of course be filed even if Filing Dates are no longer accepted. Others may also want to consider litigation (not sure of the timeline it takes to get the decision), saying if the applications were rejected in a timely manner, the applicants could always have refiled their petition as the filing dates were accepted for 2-3 months based on their PD.

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So if it?s a user error like wrong filing fees or form or missing signature, are they out of luck until the FAD or DF becomes current again? I have a couple of acquaintances who are now in that situation having filed en masse with Fragomen and other firms.

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

So if it?s a user error like wrong filing fees or form or missing signature, are they out of luck until the FAD or DF becomes current again? I have a couple of acquaintances who are now in that situation having filed en masse with Fragomen and other firms.

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Yes, litigation would be the only option for them and the decision could go either way. However I find it hard to believe the law firms would send a wrong filing fee as they are pretty standard. They ought to do better than that. It could also be a USCIS error, as usually the people who accept/scan and generate receipts for the applications are basic level employees like first level of support (sometimes newbies) who may not be well trained.

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Originally Posted by monsieur

PS: No I never thought of having PR of Canada or Other countries. I will stay in US till job is good, willing to move to any part of world if I get good opportunity and my piece of mind.

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Monsieur, after 18+ years of work in US, we shouldn't be willing to move to any part of world for another job opportunity. We should have saved/invested enough to have a couple of million dollars in bank and be willing to retire peacefully in India. That's the ultimate revenge!

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Originally Posted by may2011

Thanks for letting me know.I will check their experiences.

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And as per your line in immigration queue, you never lose that. That is cemented. If there is error - just fix it.

Even if this GC application is completely withdrawn and a brand new is filed - your line in queue remains intact because it is based on your PERM approval (or 140 filing date in case of EB1).

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

And as per your line in immigration queue, you never lose that. That is cemented. If there is error - just fix it.

Even if this GC application is completely withdrawn and a brand new is filed - your line in queue remains intact because it is based on your PERM approval (or 140 filing date in case of EB1).

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Thanks a lot for the clarification! It's a relief to know that I won't lose my place in the GC line.

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Originally Posted by may2011

Thanks a lot for the clarification! It's a relief to know that I won't lose my place in the GC line.

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No worries. Spread the joy -- help others when opportunity presents!

Quick update for those who are still waiting for their receipt notice.

My packet was delivered to Lewisville, Texas on 29th October. I finally received 485, EAD and AP notice for myself and my spouse yesterday, after 3.5 months from filing. Notices came from NSC though.

P.D.: 12th July 2011, EB2. Downgrading to EB3.

One issue observed was that the PD marked on 485 notice was 17th July 2011 instead of 12th July 2011. Did anyone else notice a similar issue before? And the course of action to remedy this? Could this potentially cause any issues with processing?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

No worries. Spread the joy -- help others when opportunity presents!

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Hello Guru's

I am seeing weird online case status update for my I-765 and 485 applications . My I-765 and I-131 were approved today afternoon. Around 7pm My i-765 CASE changed back to "Finger prints were Applied " message with case update date as 2/11 .
I-131 still shows approved. Also I see my 485 case was also showing updated on 2/11 . why it showing tomorrow's date? why my I-765 changed from approved status finger print status? Anybody faced this kind of issue?

@gc2021,

what is your PD? and receipt date for your application.
the date issue could be due to the GMT timezone used in their system to update.

when did you last gave your fingerprint or traveled out of country?

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Originally Posted by inspired_p

I feel you on your frustration, and believe me , the frustration is not very unique to you. But statistics of 90% EB2 actually being EB3 is far fetched.
Anyways, I should have just let you vent out by your frustrations, instead of trying to argue on any points.

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Dude, I think you have completely missed the point. If it was my frustration I would have let it known in October/November 2020 when the downgrades were happening.

Right now we are waiting for March bulletin and I am telling people how the downgrades and mindless upgrades have screwed the people.

Another user claimed Eb2 would have been at 2011 and Eb3 at 2007 if people stayed in the queue.

I am repeating more than 90% of the people in EB2 from 2010 should have filed in EB3 in the first place including the people who downgraded now. They are good for 5K and 10 K. No where in the world a person runs 10K and awarded 5 K completion. That would have made Eb2 already with 2014-15 date and EB3 around 2009. Once the Eb2 dates passed his Eb3 PD he could have upgraded based on his skill and qualification for the job and run the additional 5K.

In future if people only apply in Eb3, this can help. I could see 80,000 applicants already from 2018 to 2020 with Eb2 140 when we already know there was more than 220 K 140 applicants.

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Originally Posted by raradhya

@gc2021,

what is your PD? and receipt date for your application.
the date issue could be due to the GMT timezone used in their system to update.

when did you last gave your fingerprint or traveled out of country?

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My PD is Feb 2011 EB2 . Filed in Oct 2020 and done with finger prints in 1st week of December. As of today also still I-765 status showing Finger Prints taken and I-131 is approved status. But in I-765 case history still it's showing on Feb 9th "New card is being produced" and Feb 10th " Application is approved" messages . So am I going to receive combo card or Just AP ? Did anyone heard this kind of issue before?

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Originally Posted by may2011

Thank you for your prompt reply.Waiting till Sep 2022 seems pragmatic. I think I will end up doing that.

Good to know that I won't lose my line incase of clerical errors.phew!

About the spillover for 2022, won't the spillover only happen if there are closures till Sept 2021?If there are closures till March 2021, won't those numbers will be utilized due by FB applicants waiting since 2020?Just trying to understand how the numbers are utilized.

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With vast majority of FB applicants coming in through CP, even (if) when consulates world wide open and start processing these applications, its extremely unlikely all those unused numbers for this fiscal will be used and hence expecting a good SO next year into EB is a pretty reasonable assumption according to me.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

I am repeating more than 90% of the people in EB2 from 2010 should have filed in EB3 in the first place including the people who downgraded now. They are good for 5K and 10 K. No where in the world a person runs 10K and awarded 5 K completion. That would have made Eb2 already with 2014-15 date and EB3 around 2009. Once the Eb2 dates passed his Eb3 PD he could have upgraded based on his skill and qualification for the job and run the additional 5K.

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Looks like you are trying your hardest to twist my example and not make sense of it. :D. Anyways that's besides the point. I believe people are smart enough to make their own decisions. They may think differently than you, but that does not make them mindless/headless chickens. I have a few friends with PD in late 2014. You know the reason they downgraded? To get EADs and be off H1. We all know how immigration friendly H1 policies were being put forward last year. They wanted to avoid the uncertainty of H1 and have some semblance of control in their lives (even with job changes). Their logic was simple rather than wait for GC on H1 it's better to wait on EAD. I don't see any mindless downgrades there. I partly downgraded because of this and one other reason. I will share my other reason if it turns out to be true as that's purely my opinion based on anecdotal evidence. I do not want to pass it off as a stat in this forum. Didn't we all want to migrate to this country because of the freedom it provides? In a free country people should be allowed to do what's in their best interest.

vsivarama,

Nicely put.
I like and agree with your statement : "I believe people are smart enough to make their own decisions. They may think differently than you, but that does not make them"... better or stupid or evil or good.
Everyone has their own reasons and none of us have the right to judge others [Coz we will be wrong...].

Heres to hoping for a positive movement and approval for all [per the rules].

Stay Well and Stay Happy :)

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Originally Posted by vsivarama

Looks like you are trying your hardest to twist my example and not make sense of it. :D. Anyways that's besides the point. I believe people are smart enough to make their own decisions. They may think differently than you, but that does not make them mindless/headless chickens. I have a few friends with PD in late 2014. You know the reason they downgraded? To get EADs and be off H1. We all know how immigration friendly H1 policies were being put forward last year. They wanted to avoid the uncertainty of H1 and have some semblance of control in their lives (even with job changes). Their logic was simple rather than wait for GC on H1 it's better to wait on EAD. I don't see any mindless downgrades there. I partly downgraded because of this and one other reason. I will share my other reason if it turns out to be true as that's purely my opinion based on anecdotal evidence. I do not want to pass it off as a stat in this forum. Didn't we all want to migrate to this country because of the freedom it provides? In a free country people should be allowed to do what's in their best interest.

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We are discussing the possibilities my friend. You did the downgrade to EB2 with best interests in mind, in the same way many people till 12/2014 in EB2. The headless chickens are the ones (30,520 in 2018, 28,352 in 2019) in Eb2 I from 2018 till March 2020 after seeing more than 200,000 - 140 applicants already waiting in EB2.

I am saying come this October 2021, the same guys are going to jump back to EB2 I queue stating they had amended the petition when it should have been new.. we all know the drill.

Free choices, since we are all anecdotal, analogy experts, till the bodyline series in 1933-34 you can bowl any number of bouncers and any number of fielders on the leg side of a batsman. All it took is a captain like Jardine and a bowler like Larwood to get the rule changed. :-D

When your choice of best self interest involves adding a new application to the detriment of another applicant that has to be pointed out.

So if it has to be, join both Eb2 and 3 instead of letting people jump from one line to another!!!

Hello Gurus and everyone , appreciate all of your valuable posts.

I am reposting due to initial approval for newcomer and went past date :)


I am eb3-I and my priority date is current since Jan2021 and my 485 is not approved yet, so far no status change after interview was completed in 2019. 485 was applied in Jan2019 , didn't use attorney's help. I am having EAD renewed until mid of 2022. My contract is ending with client in Feb 2021. My client and my current employer (485 sponsor) agreed to the full time employment conversion with client.
I have not changed jobs and currently working on h1 with my 485 sponsor last 15 years. I am planning to use EAD to join my client as full time and joining date would be March 1st.

If my 485 is approved before March 1st, then is it ok to use the GC and join my client, without making an I-9 entry of GC with my 485 sponsor.
Any valuable suggestions please. Sincere Thanks.

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Originally Posted by InbaMayam

Hello Gurus and everyone , appreciate all of your valuable posts.

I am reposting due to initial approval for newcomer and went past date :)


I am eb3-I and my priority date is current since Jan2021 and my 485 is not approved yet, so far no status change after interview was completed in 2019. 485 was applied in Jan2019 , didn't use attorney's help. I am having EAD renewed until mid of 2022. My contract is ending with client in Feb 2021. My client and my current employer (485 sponsor) agreed to the full time employment conversion with client.
I have not changed jobs and currently working on h1 with my 485 sponsor last 15 years. I am planning to use EAD to join my client as full time and joining date would be March 1st.

If my 485 is approved before March 1st, then is it ok to use the GC and join my client, without making an I-9 entry of GC with my 485 sponsor.
Any valuable suggestions please. Sincere Thanks.

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Your I485 has been pending for 180 days. So you are eligible for AC21 job portability. You have no problem joining FT. However to invoke AC21, it would be helpful to have a) SOC code b) Job Title and c)Job description. So try to get PERM / I-140 from your original employer. If it is lost, you can do a FOIA request. I would suggest you to apply for AC21 immediately after joining the job. Don't wait. This way you are covered for Citizenship form later on. Good luck fellow Oors.

Edit: I don't get your question about I-9. The moment you join any new employer, they will have to do compliance (E-Verify / I-9). The only way you can work with the new FT employer is either by using GC or EAD or by transferring H1B. You had indicated that you are going to use EAD or GC. So you have to file a I-9 with any new employer. If you are still in EAD/AP status, please make sure that you browse through our EAD/AP forum on the advantages and disadvantages of EAD & H1B. Also before travel on EAD/AP make sure you read the AP travel thread. Good Luck.