EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by Spectator

EB3Iwaiting,

It's my understanding based on the publicly available information. What happens in practice is another matter.

Suva does raise a very valid point though. It would be an administrative nightmare to keep changing records, particularly when you get into the Chinese situation. Perhaps USCIS resource is better spent actually approving cases. Syncing that with the DOS IVAMS system is another matter. Technically, the applicant does (eventually) have a basis under 2 different employment based categories to become an LPR. The DOS pending demand file reflects that situation we are led to believe. I can see both sides of the coin, even if I would prefer to see one scenario over the other.

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Spec, you are right. I had this conversation with my lawyer as my spouse case is in EB2 and mine in EB3. they said the same thing if we interfile to his EB2 but dates under EB3 move ahead, we have to interfile again asking me to be primary. I know this situation is slightly different than porting cases where the primary applicant is the same but drives home the point that USCIS doesn't take the case out from the other category even when they have interfiling request. However atleast for EB3 I sake I am assuming this will not impact much as most with 2005 or 06 PD will have already ported and got their greencard. It will make a big difference post 2008 dates for both categories.

Hi Guys,

I will be travelling to India\Chennai after 3 years and would be using EAD/AP. I will be transiting via Doha. Is there anything I have to carry additional documents apart from EAD\AP I may have to carry ? Any recent experiences.

Thanks.

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Originally Posted by asankaran

Hi Guys,

I will be travelling to India\Chennai after 3 years and would be using EAD/AP. I will be transiting via Doha. Is there anything I have to carry additional documents apart from EAD\AP I may have to carry ? Any recent experiences.

Thanks.

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NO! You don't need to carry anything else.

asankaran:

Suggest you carry receipt notices for I-485 and paystub for last few months. Additionally will recommend you carry a folder with all immigration docs like previous H1-B, Employment letter, Few Utility bills and proof of address etc. I have never been questioned on these but better to be safe than sorry. A lot of officer still do not understand EAD/AP card properly esp if you are entering US from small airport.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...arch-2016.html

EB2-I - 15OCT08
EB3-I - 15JUL04
EB3-ROW - 01JAN16

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D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)

Worldwide dates:

F1: Three to five weeks
F2A: Up to one month
F2B: Up to three weeks
F3: Up to four weeks
F4: Three to four weeks

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current

China: Up to five months.

India: Up to three months.

Employment Third:

Worldwide: The rapid forward movement of this cut-off date during the past ten months should generate a significant amount of
demand for numbers. When such demand begins to materialize it will be necessary to limit movement of this cut-off date.

China: Up to five months.
India: Up to one month.
Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date.
Philippines: Up to four months.

Employment Fourth: Current for most countries

Employment Fifth: The category will remain "Current" for most countries.

China-mainland born: Slow forward movement.

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through June based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future, or that "corrective" action will not be required at some point in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables.

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Notable compared to any previous predictions is that EB4 is likely to retrogress for some Countries. That means there may be no SO from EB4 in FY2016. Not surprising given the large uptick in I-360 receipts and approvals.

Not much movement for EB2I in this bulletin OCT 2008

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...arch-2016.html

They plan to move the EB2I dates ahead in the coming months. So looks like early conservative amount of SO will be applied.

How come DF for China moved but not for India? Is it because we are still far away from reaching that date?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...arch-2016.html

EB2-I - 15OCT08
EB3-I - 15JUL04
EB3-ROW - 01JAN16



Notable compared to any previous predictions is that EB4 is likely to retrogress for some Countries. That means there may be no SO from EB4 in FY2016. Not surprising given the large uptick in I-360 receipts and approvals.

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The Filing dates are finally current for EB3 Row. Do you think they are preparing to make EB3 ROW current in the next VB? Does this mean a good SO for EB3 I? Your thoughts are appreciated.

Thank you very much

Amul

EB3ROW Final Action Date has moved to 1 Jan 2016. So, technically the category is current. I think this shows that EB3ROW demand continues to be low. As to what CO said:

"Employment Third:

Worldwide: The rapid forward movement of this cut-off date during the past ten months should generate a significant amount of
demand for numbers. When such demand begins to materialize it will be necessary to limit movement of this cut-off date."

he is being conservative considering this is the first time it has happened since July 07. He is finding it extremely difficult to accept that EB3ROW demand is actually low.

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Originally Posted by CleanSock

How come DF for China moved but not for India? Is it because we are still far away from reaching that date?

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But aren't these dates only reference? USCIS decides who can file I-485.

https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletin-feb-16

DOS had Jul 1,2009 as filing date for EB2-I in Feb 16 VB but USCIS's filing date was Aug 01,2008.

Yup - there seems to be this giant resistance to accept that EB3ROW is actually C and has been for a while. After some time there will be no choice but to accept. Changing the FD to C is the first step.

EB-3C might actually catch up with EB-3ROW. EB-2C is going to see bunch of downgrades to EB-3C. EB-C overall might actually catch up to EB-ROW overall. That would be insane!

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

he is being conservative considering this is the first time it has happened since July 07. He is finding it extremely difficult to accept that EB3ROW demand is actually low.

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Was checking ..... http://www.immigration-law.com "THE OH LAW FIRM"

State Department Prediction for Visa Availability in the Coming Month

EB-Based Categories (potential monthly movement)
EB-1: Current
EB-2:
Worldwide: Current
China: Up to five months.
India: Up to three months.
EB-3:
Worldwide: The rapid forward movement of this cut-off date during the past ten months should generate a significant amount of demand for numbers. When such demand begins to materialize it will be necessary to limit movement of this cut-off date.
China: Up to five months.
India: Up to one month.
Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date.
Philippines: Up to four months.
EB-4: Current for most countries
EB-5: The category will remain "Current" for most countries. China-mainland born: Slow forward movement.

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through June based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future, or that "corrective" action will not be required at some point in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables.

I am a very disappointed by the last statement of DOS.... "The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through June based on current applicant demand patterns" .....
Does this mean that SO to EB3I will happen only in July-Qtr ??
Looking at the EB3 ROW current status, thought that there will be SO to EB3I in Apr-Qtr.

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Originally Posted by GCwaiting

....current applicant demand patterns.....

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Those are the most important words and the ones that yield their own prediction useless. why? because for backlogged countries due to the retrogression the demand thins out as u go back in time.

Thanks qesehmk !!!
Nice catch.
Definitely "...current applicant demand patterns....." will not remain the same. It would change.
Hope this change turns positive for EB3 I. Brings new hope :-) !!

It has been a very long & painful wait for more than a decade & half. This has really taught me what life is all about.

Considering that EB2ROW has been Current and EB2I gets spillover only in the last quarter of the year (ignoring exceptions like 2012), the same might happen with EB3I even after EB3ROW becomes C. CO might wait until the last three months of FY for any SO to EB3I.

Have patience everyone - its gonna happen. I know how hard this wait is - but like everything else - this too shall pass.

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Originally Posted by GCwaiting

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Does this mean that SO to EB3I will happen only in July-Qtr ??
Looking at the EB3 ROW current status, thought that there will be SO to EB3I in Apr-Qtr.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Considering that EB2ROW has been Current and EB2I gets spillover only in the last quarter of the year (ignoring exceptions like 2012), the same might happen with EB3I even after EB3ROW becomes C. CO might wait until the last three months of FY for any SO to EB3I.

Have patience everyone - its gonna happen. I know how hard this wait is - but like everything else - this too shall pass.

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i hope I have my job till then. have been hanging on to it for last so many years and with the current state of stock markets I am just hoping I can hang on for atleast one more year :( cant imagine giving up after enduring so much ...

So the spillover will only happen in the last quarter (July/Aug/Sep) and until then the EB2 dates would either crawl or stagnate? Reason I ask is because we have travel plans in April end and my PD is Nov 20, 2008. I am a month + change away from being current and it would suck to get a RFE for medical around the time we have to travel. FYI, I we submitted our medicals in Sep 2014. While I am on this, does EVERYONE with medical records older than a year get a RFE now?

There will be no SO until last few months - but EB2I dates are moving with regular numbers. Mar VB saw 2.5 months movement from Feb VB. So you may be current in Apr VB.

Medicals are valid for 1 year from the day USCIS receives them. Once they are expired, new valid ones are needed for approval. No way around that I believe.

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Originally Posted by misanthrope

So the spillover will only happen in the last quarter (July/Aug/Sep) and until then the EB2 dates would either crawl or stagnate? Reason I ask is because we have travel plans in April end and my PD is Nov 20, 2008. I am a month + change away from being current and it would suck to get a RFE for medical around the time we have to travel. FYI, I we submitted our medicals in Sep 2014. While I am on this, does EVERYONE with medical records older than a year get a RFE now?

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Originally Posted by imdeng

There will be no SO until last few months - but EB2I dates are moving with regular numbers. Mar VB saw 2.5 months movement from Feb VB. So you may be current in Apr VB.

Medicals are valid for 1 year from the day USCIS receives them. Once they are expired, new valid ones are needed for approval. No way around that I believe.

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Can up to 3 months' forward movement each month for next three months (Apr-Jun) be supported without SO?

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Originally Posted by 4WatItsWorth

Can up to 3 months' forward movement each month for next three months (Apr-Jun) be supported without SO?

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I am sure the gurus here can make a good assessment of that once they see the inventory :p It should be out by now but for some reason is not yet!

With respect to FY2016 , can someone advise what month is FY2016 ending for visa category and bulletin. if someone says SO will happen 3 months before fy2016 ends does he mean July 2016 ( 3 months before Oct ) or Sept 2016 ( 3 months before Dec 2016 )

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Originally Posted by vyruss

I am sure the gurus here can make a good assessment of that once they see the inventory :p It should be out by now but for some reason is not yet!

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I hope they come out with the inventory report and the pending lawsuit doesn't impact it in any manner...

Not once we reach into 2009. Latter half of 2008 has been current enough number of times that much of the porting demand from there has already been sucked out. 2009 on the other hand should have more porting cases that will slow down the movement. Even straight inventory in after last year's high water mark is high enough that not much movement will happen there without SO.

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Originally Posted by 4WatItsWorth

Can up to 3 months' forward movement each month for next three months (Apr-Jun) be supported without SO?

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FY starts Oct 1st - so last three month of FY16 would be July-Aug-Sep. Traditionally Aug has been the large spillover month. Sep is for mop-over duty and to make sure quotas are fully used.

Light@EOT - Do you anticipate your I-140 being withdrawn once you leave your employer. If not then with AC21 you are in good shape.

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Originally Posted by 4WatItsWorth

Can up to 3 months' forward movement each month for next three months (Apr-Jun) be supported without SO?

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1. Any movement beyond Oct 2008 will be possible only after using SO.
2. CO will be using small chunks of SO to support the forward movement.
3. The prediction is up to 3 months. So it may be anywhere from 0 months to 3 months. I believe it will move in increments of 1 month every VB until June 2009, and after that it will be moving ahead depending on how much SO is unused.

Perm Approvals from Jan'09 to Apr'10
Month----EB2----EB3
Jan'09----828----276
Feb'09----539----180
Mar'09---1069----356
Apr'09---2259----753
May'09---1196----399
Jun'09----937----312
Jul'09------3----1
Aug'09----160----53
Sept'09---637----212
Oct'09---1139----380
Nov'09---1028----343
Dec'09---1230----410
Jan'10---1662----554
Feb'10---1905----635
Mar'10---2762----921
Apr'10---1572----524
Total---18926----6309

current 485 inventory for this time frame is 15K, based on EB3 perm approvals potentially 25% more inventory added for this time frame from porting alone.

Moving past April 2010 looks not possible before 2018

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Originally Posted by akshaya8

Perm Approvals from Jan'09 to Apr'10
Month----EB2----EB3
Jan'09----828----276
Feb'09----539----180
Mar'09---1069----356
Apr'09---2259----753
May'09---1196----399
Jun'09----937----312
Jul'09------3----1
Aug'09----160----53
Sept'09---637----212
Oct'09---1139----380
Nov'09---1028----343
Dec'09---1230----410
Jan'10---1662----554
Feb'10---1905----635
Mar'10---2762----921
Apr'10---1572----524
Total---18926----6309

current 485 inventory for this time frame is 15K, based on EB3 perm approvals potentially 25% more inventory added for this time frame from porting alone.

Moving past April 2010 looks not possible before 2018

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Very useful information. So the filing date my move till Mar 2010 and Final date may move till Nov 2009 at the good case. In Best case final date may move till Jan 2010 and Filing date my move till May 2010.

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Originally Posted by akshaya8

Perm Approvals from Jan'09 to Apr'10
Month----EB2----EB3
Jan'09----828----276
Feb'09----539----180
Mar'09---1069----356
Apr'09---2259----753
May'09---1196----399
Jun'09----937----312
Jul'09------3----1
Aug'09----160----53
Sept'09---637----212
Oct'09---1139----380
Nov'09---1028----343
Dec'09---1230----410
Jan'10---1662----554
Feb'10---1905----635
Mar'10---2762----921
Apr'10---1572----524
Total---18926----6309

current 485 inventory for this time frame is 15K, based on EB3 perm approvals potentially 25% more inventory added for this time frame from porting alone.

Moving past April 2010 looks not possible before 2018

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The numbers for July doesn't make sense. Just 4 applications? Plus the 485 inventory is significantly more.

PERM approved in FY2015(9/30/2015)

Determination---FY--------Q1------------Q2--------Q3-------Q4
Certified--------78,938----16,172-----20,173----17,740---24,853
Denied-----------5,851------1,065---------999-----1,779-----2,008
Withdrawn-------4,362------1,103-------1,091----1,072-----1,096

Top Countries of Citizenship

India----------45,670---58%
China-----------6,411 8%
South Korea--4,895----6%
Canada--------2,962---4%

78,938
52,081 (India + China)
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26,857- ROW

EB2 40K - ~6k (India + china ) = 34K for ROW.
EB3 40K - ~6k (India + china ) = 34K for ROW.

68K - 54K (ROW 27K perms * 2) = 14 K spillover


Assuming similar perm ratios continued in first 2 Quarters of FY16 & USCIS maintains similar inventory in the pipe at the end of Sept'16. We can expect around 14K spillover for India (for EB2 and EB3 together). we can expect at least to clear half of current inventory i.e. 14K + 6K = 20K from 39K Pending india EB2 and EB3 Inventory. how ever high usage of ROW in EB2 and EB3 to EB2 porting in india category majority of reduction around 15K may happen in EB3 India

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Originally Posted by akshaya8

PERM approved in 2015

Determination---FY--------Q1------------Q2--------Q3-------Q4
Certified--------78,938----16,172-----20,173----17,740---24,853
Denied-----------5,851------1,065---------999-----1,779-----2,008
Withdrawn-------4,362------1,103-------1,091----1,072-----1,096

Top Countries of Citizenship

India----------45,670---58%
China-----------6,411 8%
South Korea--4,895----6%
Canada--------2,962---4%

78,938
52,081 (India + China)
--------
26,857- ROW

EB2 40K - ~6k (India + china ) = 34K for ROW.
EB3 40K - ~6k (India + china ) = 34K for ROW.

68K - 54K (ROW 27K perms * 2) = 14 K spillover


Assuming similar perm ratios continued in first 2 Quarters of FY16 & USCIS maintains similar inventory in the pipe at the end of Sept'16. We can expect around 14K spillover for India (for EB2 and EB3 together). we can expect at least to clear half of current inventory 14K + 6K = 20K. how ever high usage of ROW in EB2 and EB3 to EB2 in india category majority of reduction around 15K may happen in EB3 India

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How far can that move the EB2-I PD to? Is Nov2009 possible?

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Originally Posted by 4WatItsWorth

How far can that move the EB2-I PD to? Is Nov2009 possible?

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same question but for EB3I? Also since EB3 Row filing are less than Eb2 more SO should go to EB3I? Am I correct in assuming that?

all that would be so easy to predict if we could get the quarterly inventory of pending I-485. But alas we live in the dark ages of exploitation.

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Originally Posted by akshaya8

PERM approved in FY2015(9/30/2015)

Determination---FY--------Q1------------Q2--------Q3-------Q4
Certified--------78,938----16,172-----20,173----17,740---24,853
Denied-----------5,851------1,065---------999-----1,779-----2,008
Withdrawn-------4,362------1,103-------1,091----1,072-----1,096

Top Countries of Citizenship

India----------45,670---58%
China-----------6,411 8%
South Korea--4,895----6%
Canada--------2,962---4%

78,938
52,081 (India + China)
--------
26,857- ROW

EB2 40K - ~6k (India + china ) = 34K for ROW.
EB3 40K - ~6k (India + china ) = 34K for ROW.

68K - 54K (ROW 27K perms * 2) = 14 K spillover


Assuming similar perm ratios continued in first 2 Quarters of FY16 & USCIS maintains similar inventory in the pipe at the end of Sept'16. We can expect around 14K spillover for India (for EB2 and EB3 together). we can expect at least to clear half of current inventory i.e. 14K + 6K = 20K from 39K Pending india EB2 and EB3 Inventory. how ever high usage of ROW in EB2 and EB3 to EB2 porting in india category majority of reduction around 15K may happen in EB3 India

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Please let me know why you have calculated 27K * 2?? ... shouldn't it be just 27K?? (Fiscal Year 2015 was fully considered for 27K and hence the question)...:confused:

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Originally Posted by rbusgc

Please let me know why you have calculated 27K * 2?? ... shouldn't it be just 27K?? (Fiscal Year 2015 was fully considered for 27K and hence the question)...:confused:

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He considered dependents and considered the multiplying factor of 2.0. PERMs are for primary applicants only but AOS applications includes dependents of the primary applicant, hence the multiplication of 2, though it should ideally be 2.1 or 2.2 (some have dependent children).

From the reports published on the us visas site https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...tatistics.html, it appears Indians got the following numbers. 2015 reports are yet to be published. Do gurus out here know what the 2015 numbers would have been?

EB2 EB3
2015
2014 12978 23527 3465
2013 9640 17193 7763
2012 9506 19726 2758
2011 4563 23997 3954

It is getting pretty obvious that the EB visa stats are purposely not being released because of the pending lawsuit. That also goes for the pending inventory report.

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

It is getting pretty obvious that the EB visa stats are purposely not being released because of the pending lawsuit. That also goes for the pending inventory report.

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Why is it so "Obvious"? Curious because I saw similar postings on other forums.

2014 - EB2I - 23527 .... seems fishy