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civilengineer,Quote:
Originally Posted by civilengineer
That's unlikely to happen.
Usually, the last post in the Calculations and Predictions sub-forum is from this thread, so clicking on "Go to last post" on the top right hand side of the main forum page will take you to the last post of this thread.
95% of the time, getting to the last post requires only one click.
Hope that helps.
HiQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
There is another way that guarantees you to the last page - you can simply change the page number of the URL to a bigger one such as 200 or even 1000, then save it to your favorites, when you want to browse the link, just click the link you saved - it will bring you to the very last page everytime..... ex:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...)-2013/page500
Hope this helps. Thanks.
You can have no SO. Lets say EB1 + eb4 + eb 5 = 5000 + 2000 = 7000. Then EB2 will have 45000 + 7000 = 52000(I wont go for the 55k-60k figure as that assumes EB1 and 4 will use less than their yearly allocation). For no SO scenario - EB2 WW has to use around 46000 numbers. Has this happened before? Yes once in 2008 - EB2 WW used 48000 visas. Can it happen again - theres very a small chance. We need to see the origin of the demand that is labor applications for EB2 WW. Have their numbers increased , decreased or stayed the same. Last year EB2 WW got 25000 which was really low on account of retrogression. So how much pent up demand is there we dont know. Hopefully WW will fold before 40000.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
indiani,Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
Glad that answered your question.
As for your new question - how long is a piece of string?
Since EB1 itself will provide the most spillover to EB2, I think the performance of that Category is the key.
To date, there hasn't been good, reliable information on how EB1 is doing. I have some doubts about the EB1 Trackitt data at face value because it appears very skewed towards Indian approvals and is lacking approvals for ROW. There has been no information provided outside of Trackitt. Last year, EB1 saw an increase in approvals in the latter part of the year.
The % of Indian EB1 approvals of the whole of EB1 increased by a third in FY2012 over FY2011 to nearly a quarter of the total. Is that a continuing trend or not?
Depending on all the different assumptions, I see the current realistic range of total visas available to EB2-I as between 12-18k. That's a wide range, but it reflects the uncertainty in my view.
How far that can move the dates depends on the level of porting and how many of those cases are approved this FY.
As vizcard said, there is a "nuclear option" where EB2-I would receive very little spillover. Like vizcard, I don't believe that scenario is very likely at all.
Any thoughts are subject to quite rapid change as new information becomes available, so just consider it the "Thought For Today".
As a PS, I am increasingly wondering whether EB5 may be a dark horse for some extra spillover. The EB5 community are very frustrated with USCIS over the shifting adjudication standards for I-526.
In February, the pending backlog of I-526 had reached over 6k, which translates to nearly 15k EB5 approvals. The average monthly completions are no higher than in FY2012. If USCIS do not sort this out, EB5 approvals may be lower than expected.
civilengineer - welcome to forum! Probably you havent noticed the navigation buttons at the top as well as bottom of every threadpage. They allow you to go to the last or first page in one click. Also when on forum home page - you can click on the >> buttons to go to last page. Hope that answers your question.
Quote:
Originally Posted by civilengineer
I was thinking the same about EB5. I dont have the data like you but have been reading about slower approval times, regional center fraud investigation and move of processing center from CAlifornia to Washington. All this I was thinking could impact approvals. How do you know though that monthly approvals are same as last year even though backlog has increased. Also the danger could be that USCIS could ramp up approvals.
I think the biggest problem has been changes to the Tenant Occupancy Methodology.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Notice I said Completions, not Approvals. In FY2012, the average I-526 monthly Completions were 386. For FY2013 October-February the average is 358. Average I-526 Approvals have historically been about 80% of Completions.
All the data is available in the USCIS Dashboard.
Usually USCIS have also published the All Form Types Performance Data on a quarterly basis which had the Approval figures, but they have not done so this FY. The last one available covers FY2012.
Quote:
Originally Posted by civilengineer
CivilengineerQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Here's what I do. I have bookmarked the page and then went in to the properties and change the page number at the end to a very high number. Example - when you bookmark this page 61, the link will look like this -
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...s)-2013/page61
Just change the 61 at the end to 5000.
Next time you click the bookmark, it'll take you to the last page in the thread.
Makes sense. Another thing I am thinking of is CO may move dates for EB2 I in sept directly. The reason being this - All the apps pre 2007 are preadjudicated and new apps are going to be interfiling which are preadjudicated rather quickly. May be they dont want to give time for interfiling also. A late single move may be the simplest for them with a fixed target instead of a moving one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I believe that he will start making some moves in july/august, exactly how much obviously Guru's like spec just mentioned and appears almost impossible to make informed prediction as the information itself is not available precisely as I just dont understand why CO/USCIS/DOS just not provide approvals in all categories on monthly basis. (they do on yearly basis now)Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Even lets say there is more than 10K spillover and they just don't use them, they will send it to FB for next fiscal year. There will be no accountability. My life has turned upside down with last year's erratic movements and unprecdictability this year.(sorry for my rant about personal tragedy)
being nov 2007 EB2I, I dont want to make job change with AC21 and carry risk of RFE, so will wait till august 10 2013(for the last bulletin) and then perhaps if no GC by then I will change job.
Viz - If there is 0 EB spillover and just with the FB excess where do you think the dates would be by Sep for EB2I?Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
sbhagwat,Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
From my POV, I certainly hope not. That would be a recipe for random approvals of all sorts of PD. People with 2007 PD who missed out last year would be just as likely to do so again. CO would also be absolutely blind to how many cases a given movement might produce, since USCIS have not supplied any information about porting numbers in the pipeline to DOS according to previous statements.
I would move in 3 steps (as I have mentioned previously) :
July VB - Cut Off Date movement to about 01JAN07 to clear out most of the porting cases. Even the worst case scenario should allow that much movement.
August VB - A safe-ish date that represents the minimum number of cases that I would be 100% sure there will be enough visas for, even if other Categories saw a late increase. Perhaps a Cut Off Date of late 2007 to 01JAN08.
September VB - A Cut Off Date sufficient to balance the final number of visas I thought would be available. Final determination would depend on what I was seeing in other Categories up to early August when I had to set the date.
I think that strategy balances approving cases in roughly PD order, obtaining some idea of unknown demand, leaving the final movement to as late as possible and not overburdening USCIS capacity to approve cases in a single month (bearing in mind that USCIS are also likely to have large numbers of EB3 cases to adjudicate in August/September).
There are various variations around that theme, but I would be staggered and rather worried if the Cut Off Dates for EB2-I do not move in July.
Why the China born EB-3 has surpassed EB-2 visa availability for the first time since October 1993?
Article .... http://www.alanleelaw.com/english/Ne...013-05-11.html
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Nice to see another article from that source.
It may be an oddity, but it makes little difference to all but a very few Chinese applicants.
The vast majority of those in EB2 with a PD up to May 2010 were able to file an I-485 last year. I say an I-485 because EB2 has so little CP.
By the time they could switch to EB3, the dates will have retrogressed to a date earlier than the EB2 one.
IMO it is just an interesting statistical quirk, essentially caused by the way USCIS process cases, which occasionally necessitates large forward movements in the Cut Off Dates when the previous Demand runs out.
I think you already know that, so I'll just say thanks for bringing the article to everybody's attention.
Spec,
Just walked through the memory lane, this article took me back to the 2007 speculation about Eb3I waiting time would be lesser in the (then) future than that of Eb2I. Do you think it is likely after 5 years from now ?
Thanks in Adv.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,
Is there anyway we can obtain the approvals in all the EB categories so far for this fiscal year. I believe under FOIA they should provide when asked but not quite sure. It is quite frustrating to have to go through trackitt data and spending so much time and energy and you have spent more time than anyone else I know including all immigration attorneys , some of whom make millions doing this business.
I do not believe any immigration attorney is going to do that as they do not have much incentive in obtaing the GC approval data for this current fiscal year, If we have DD and GC approvals , we will have good idea about spillovers, b'cos without the GC approval data, inventory data alone will provide very little additinal value for predictions
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Firstly, it's nice to see some posts from you. It seems like a long time.
Seeing Alan Lee's name was a memory jogger for me as well. He provided some really good info in his set of 3 articles.
I hope that is a future we won't have to contemplate. If we are, no legislation to improve the system will have been passed. :(
EB3-I is in very bad shape until EB3-ROW can become Current. Until then, under current interpretations, they can't receive any spillover visas. It's quite sad that there is semi-rejoicing that EB3-I has started to move 2 weeks a month rather than 1 week. That still means actual retrogression is getting worse. I am hoping that EB3-ROW demand will drop off fairly sharply after 2008, since these days, ROW seem as unwilling to file under EB3 as those from India do. If the date move far enough, that is something I am hoping to see (one way or the other), once the full demand is apparent.
EB2-I will continue to benefit from any spillover available via EB1 and from EB2-WW. Despite the huge numbers waiting in EB2-I, only in years when there is little spillover will EB2-I not move forward at some point during the year. The present "real" gap of 5 years between EB2-I and EB3-I will take a long time to close. EB3-I are not going to exhaust visas prior to July 2007 anytime soon.
What a depressing post.
Is there any limit on how many cases can be approved per month? Will that play a role on when they decide to move the dates between July and Sept to avoid wastage?
My guesstimate would be Dec 2007 - March 2008 depending on porting.Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
There's a quarterly limit not a monthly one.Quote:
Originally Posted by sandyn16
Spec - it seems complicated from forecasting perspective but really it isn't that complicated simply because NVC is equivalent to USCIS except that consulates demand visa and NVC does the grunt work.
IMHO Precisely because of large EB3 CP backlog - there is no fear of wastage of visa in EB3 and which is why moving dates farther than really necessary is not required.
However -- regardless of that theoretical debate - I guess what you are saying is that this is a temporary forward move which most likely is going to see a retrogression. And in that case that would make sense. My fear is that porting could be much higher (but I don't have a proof) and in that case EB3 ROW move could be a sustainable one which could be a very bad news for EB2I.
We will know precisely what this by approximately Aug 10th which is when last bulletin of this USCIS fiscal will be published.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks for your comments. I agree with most of your post. Different views are expected and healthy. After all, everybody is working in a vacuum and there is no precedent for EB3 moving beyond July 2007.
To clarify, my comment about complexity was solely about about the timings issue brought about by the different speed with which AOS and CP cases can be adjudicated by USCIS and DOS.
Even then, it is only an issue if CO wishes to control the number of late PD CP cases that are approved i.e. those beyond the date that EB3 would have to retrogress back to.
As for the level of porting, like EB2, it is difficult to come by information. I have tried my best to analyze the data that exists, but there are limitations to that data. If the EB2-ROW Trackitt porting cases are more closely aligned to the EB3-ROW ratio (rather than the overall EB2-ROW ratio I have used), the numbers could be up to twice as large. On the other hand, it is clear from examination of some of the cases with an old PD that they are just long delayed straight EB2 cases.
By having to move the EB3 dates forward relatively late in the FY, CO has had to trust that USCIS will process the new AOS applications in a manner consistent with how they have processed others recently. Each year of PD forward movement should correspond to 4-5k CP cases - that is his buffer if USCIS don't process the AOS cases in a timely fashion.
I don't think the movement to 01SEP08 is a sustainable one given how many visas may be left for the FY. I have not yet decided what date is a sustainable one. At the moment I am thinking late 2007 to possibly somewhere in Q1 2008. That is based on recent FY movement for a given number of approvals.
As for a large forward movement, I think that is more to build an Inventory so that there is better visibility of the demand, much in the same way as it happened for EB2IC. In the same way, there was no need to move those dates to 01MAY10 purely for FY visa consumption reasons.
Spec - sure - I hope so and we will know by Aug 10th latest. Perhaps even as early as next month if EB2I jumps 2-3 years forward. Then clearly EB3ROW move is not sustainable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I agree.
The wait is excruciating.
I think this is by far the most difficult year (by a considerable margin) we have ever had for predicting what is going to happen. If I crash and burn this year, it won't be a total surprise to me.
It's hard to convey in posts quite how big the uncertainty is.
You will do just fine Spec! Given the amount of information available ... one could'nt have done better. Think about it - we are debating with decent accuracy what could be the reasons if EB2I doesn't receive sufficient SOFAD! So we not only are talking about outcome but also possible reasons! That is quite good compared to 2009-10s when we didnt have a clue how much total backlog was!Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q - you said you will be updating the first page once a month and hasn't been for close to 3 months. Do you think anything worthy that happened and discussed in the past 3 months to be updated in Page 1?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
This will help us recollect any useful conversations we might have missed in these days and help us understand in just one post in one place rather than going through all the 60+ pages of discussions.
Thanks!
geeaarpee -sorry and now i have updated first page. I think I am going to have to backtrack by about 2 months and correct my forecast to compensate for more than expected demand in EB2ROW as well. That explains why EB3ROW is also moving fast. (I think the unexpected demand is porting from EB3ROW to EB2ROW).Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
Spec, you replied to my post last month when the May VB was released.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Do you still think the EB3 movement is just for demand purposes and not because of porting. From the above post, even Q seems to think that porting is huge WW.
Is porting that bad that my 2005 PD will not be current next month (July VB)?
spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
A few questions concerns on which u may have insight
1. EB2WW scored 48K in FY 2008. Do you see that repeated with the Perm Data that we have. The similarities between the 2 years the years before EB2WW retrogressed
2. About the EB5 discussion- 358 /month of completions = about 4000 approvals for the year. The extra numbers to abt 7000 0r 9000 is approvals of earlier years completions? If yes then I guess EB5 will use atleast 9000 as cumulatively this and last year are high
Thanks for all you do
Answers inline (or rather, thoughts)
Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Hi Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Was comparing the multiple predictions we have, and was looking for reasons for each number, Got a little curious about the 1K SO from EB1. Are you expecting the EB1 demand to be very similar to last fiscal?
Thanks,
Matt
as CO didnt mention about any cut off date even before FB spillover is applied, EB1 should give atleast 1K unless the demand suddenly increases in the last few months like last year, in that case the spillover from EB1 could be zero and they might even consuume 1-2K of FB spillover.
EB2ROW I believe is the more worrisome factor as they might consume considerble spillover from FB perhaps 4-6K, in that case EB2I might get perhaps as low as 7K spillover but its very overcautious estimate.
The reason I think CO didnt mention about any movement even for July and small chance he might make no movement in July as he didnt want all the new porters to be getting GC as there is already large pending inventory, so when he makes move in august at the most 20-30% of new porters might be able to get GC.
I think with 99% certainity I could say it could move to aug 2007, perhaps 50% to dec 2007
Do we think that there are high chances dates wont move in July bulletin?
I have a question for my case? I have Aug 2003 EB3 and working on EAD. My wife got her EB3 first in July 2006 and then EB2 perm and 140 approved last year. So when dates get current, going to have her case linked to mine.
So am not sure whether my case will fall in the new porter type category which will need more than 3 months or do I stand a chance of getting GC if dates get current in July or August?
It depends, if they send RFE, NO.Quote:
Originally Posted by sandyn16
as you finished finger printing, after you apply even in august you might get GC
"small chance he might make no movement in July" that means there is high chance that dates will move.
sandyn16,Quote:
Originally Posted by sandyn16
I am of the opinion that the VB will move in the July VB.
The description of your situation is slightly confusing.
In one sentence its sounds as if your wife has the EB2 I-140 approval, but if her case is going to be linked to yours then you must have the EB2 I-140 approval. It's also not clear whether your wife already has an existing I-485.
IMO, a porting case is only going to take more than 3 months to approve if the person is filing an I-485 for the first time and it has to go through the whole procedure from scratch. That would mainly apply when the original EB3 case had a post July 2007 PD and the I-485 could not be filed when the dates were current under EB2 last year.
If an I-485 has already been submitted for some time, it is likely to be as pre-adjudicated as one submitted under EB2 last year. The process of converting the basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2 should take no time at all. as long as a written request to do so has been received.
It is then luck of the draw as to when the case is pulled, gets in front of an IO and whether an RFE is issued, as it will be for all EB2 cases that become Current.
I'm not a Guru and you can see in the previous posts I have been asking some basic questions to Spec and others but based on my experience just trying to answer what I feel...Quote:
Originally Posted by sandyn16
I think by "So when dates get current, going to have her case linked to mine.", you meant you are planning to file yourself as dependent on your wife's EB2 case (just make sure the old Jul'06 PD is retained in her new EB2 I-140). You are assuming that July'06 EB2I will be faster than Aug'03 EB3I - it is understandable but with the current state it could be other way too...
I assume:
1) Since you are on EAD, you have filed for I-485 already and there is very high possibility your EB3 case will be current atleast by fiscal '14. Assuming there are no RFE in your 485 it would be a straight forward approval right away in that case. This would be my first preference.
2) What is not clear from your question is whether your wife has already filed for I-485 or not - if she has already filed then her case will also be smooth and you can file as a dependent when her EB2 date is current, based on other gurus prediction it should be current by Sep'13. But my suggestion would be wait for her 485 to approve and then file a "Following to Join", this way you would avoid any issues with RFEs in your wife's 485 case.
Hope it is helpful.
Also read this, it has some good info too...
http://forums.immigration.com/showth...became-current
Matt
That's quite conservative. Yes I think it will be come in at last years level or even higher - considering economy is actually better this year. However trackitt data is pointing to 20% less demand ... that's 32K. So 44-32=12K SOFAD could be seen. To me that is too good to be true in this economy.
Plus EB1 is treachorous because the cycle times are so small. And then there are headwinds in EB3ROW porting .... so I will let these headwinds take away any upside in EB1. Or said other way ..... you can say that yes indeed EB1 can give SOFAD to EB2 but the question is will it really go to EB2I? Or will it be consumed in EB2ROW. So seen from EB2I angle - they may land up with only 1K from EB1 (mind you before I consider 9K extra FB visas).
Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
Thanks for the information...
To give more information on my case
My wife is a dependent in my 485 which is eb3 aug 2003
Now she got eb2 perm and 140 approved last year with her eb3 date of July 2006. She did not file for 485 with her eb3 case and with her eb2 case, her lawyer said when dates are current they would link it to mine so make her primary and me dependent is what I guess.
We got finger printing completed in 2007
Just do what your attorney said which seems to be right - i think they are planning to interfile but there are associated risks too. Filing a derivative 485 also carries risk. Check with your attorney, if "Following to Join" is possible and I think that would be the safest bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by sandyn16
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
You've hit the nail on the head!
EB1 usage is my greatest uncertainty and concern at present.
As you say, looking at total EB1 Trackitt approvals, it would suggest 32k from usage to date. I too think that is a little on the low side.
As an alternative, since EB1-I represent over 80% of Trackitt approvals to date, I have also been using that as a baseline.
Last year, actual EB1-I approvals (from DOS figures) represented 24% of total EB1 approvals. Mind you, that was a huge increase from the 18% in FY2011 and 16% in FY2010 and FY2009.
Using Trackitt EB1 India as a more representative baseline and the 24% ratio, projected approvals have been in the 36-37k range.
Summing up, I share your concern about EB1 usage, especially as this time last year saw the beginning of a surge in EB1 approvals and the fact that EB1 approvals do seem to come in waves rather than as a steady stream.