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Source: The Oh Law Firm (http://www.immigration-law.com/)
03/09/2011: May 2011 EB-2 Cut-Off Date Substantial Move-Ahead Predicted
AILA has reported that the EB-2 cut-off dates in Visa Bulletin in May 2011 may progress ahead substantially because of large unused EB-1 numbers since October 2010 since it has about 12,000 unused EB-2 numbers. Very good news from AILA and Mr. Oppenheim.
I noticed that I140 approval times are 8 months now (Except for premium) this will slow down the EB2 ROW & EB1 approvals and will increase SOFAD for this year, most folks who port file in premium.
Thanks for that update Teddy. Looking forward to the May bulletin now. Anyone with access to the AILA website to get some details ? http://aila.org/RecentPosting/RecentPostingList.aspx
This is a very interesting development and suggests Trackitt data was correct. It's great to finally get the corroborative evidence we badly needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
There is better information from Ron Gotcher http://www.immigration-information.c...ability-13774/
He seems to be quoting what Charles Oppenheim said:
The May VB is going to be VERY interesting!Quote:
EB2 visa availability
The American Immigration Lawyers Association reports that Charlie Oppenheim provided them with the following information:
It appears that the surge in EB1 filings started to tail off around October 1st. Presumably, this means that those who wanted to upgrade from EB2 to EB1 have now filed their petitions.Quote:
“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”
“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”
Thanks for posting the new details, I think what is being implied here that till date there are 12K unused EB1 visa numbers available which they do not expect EB1 to use so they intend to start fall down to EB2 so the comment really is about EB1. I feel since this is half year only we should double this number to full year. If what Iam inferring is true then the Jul Aug - 2007 line has a good chance to be broken this year itself.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I read it slightly differently. The phrase:
implies to me that it would be 12k total.Quote:
Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category.
A quick look at my model implies a movement to anything from Feb 2007 to towards the end of April 2007, depending on whether you use USCIS Inventory or DOS Demand figures. A greater movement in Cut Off Dates also implies greater "effective" Porting numbers, so I have raised my assumed amount from 4k to 6k to account for that.
I look forward to the discussion that I am sure will follow this announcement.
It looks like 12k EB1 numbers are from Q1 and Q2 only, atleast half of that should be available from Q3 and Q4
half yearly spill over finally
Copied from immigrationvoice.org posting by EB2-buddy
A Sliver of Hope! EB-2 Visa Number Movement
Snippet from Chinese immigration Website abt this news
If you remember, this was the site which published the Bulletin sometime back while uscis delayed it and all of us were breaking our heads to predict the cut-off dates
==================
A Sliver of Hope! EB-2 Visa Number Movement
Friday, 25 March 2011 08:29 Jan Pederson
The Department of State announced that the Indian EB2 category is expected to advance one week in the May Visa Bulletin. The demand for EB1visa numbers has decreased by 50 percent this fiscal year. Last year from October 2009 to February 2010, 22,000 EB1 numbers were used. During the same period this year, only 10,000 to 11,000 have been used. EB1 will be current worldwide all fiscal year. This will free up an estimated 12,000 visa numbers to fall down from EB1 to EB2 this year
Hi Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks for the offer. I was traveling abroad and had to focus on the consulting issues I was working for.
Against my name GCW07, you can mention the range of 20K to 24K (long range) and average at 22K. I believe that the cut off date would get into 2007 and ranging between Feb to April 2007.
If DOS is going to use 12K spillover (from EB1 to EB2) tp clear EB2 India China backlog, then in May VB, we can expect the cut off date to move between Sep 06 to Oct 06.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
First of all Teddy and others a big thanks. This is a great news and creditable.
As you have already pointed out the big question is "are teh numbers TOTAL or are they coming purely from EB1". The naswer tothis question determines how long the dates will move ...
If the numbers are in total then that is not hugely exciting ... since we already factored in almost 9K of teh 12k in our model.
On the otherhand nuvikas's information says they are not only purely EB1 but they are semi-annual ... indicating the numbers are really 24K incremental when extrapolated to full year.
If true that would mean the dates move in Jan 2009 or become totally current for a while.
So where is the reality? I guess I don't know. But if we take the middle path - I would assume (for now until better data emerges) that 12K is full year incremental to our model.
This means the dates will by Sep 11 move beyond Jul 2007 for EB2IC.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nuvikas
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,
I think you have summed it up very nicely.
The way I parse the statement is:
Based on the USCIS statement that there has been a decline in filings and that they do not expect a change in the number use pattern (for the rest of the year), then at least 12k additional numbers will be available to EB2.
We all know that Charles Oppenheim is quite conservative, so the fact he say "at least" is significant to me. That represents a minimum, which he is probably lowballing to give some wiggle room if the situation changes.
In fact, I would expect it to be more than that based on the current run rate in Trackitt.
Based on all EB1 then they would reach 20k total approvals if the current rate continues.
Based on EB1-India approvals alone, then all of EB1 might reach 24k total approvals if nothing changes.
That is more like a potential 16-20k total spare visas.
I can't quite reconcile how any pending backlog of applications to adjudicate is going to affect that. Not at all if the adjudication time remains long, I guess.
Maybe it is just my conservative nature speaking and I might be in a minority of one. I don't have a problem with that, since the wording is rather vague.
Let's hope for a better expression of the facts. I would guess CO will add a comment into the May VB about this situation.
Conservative is good since by nature most of us are optimists! So its better to be conservative when trying to predict something.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Since there are so many preadjudicated cases I would imagine they shouldn't have difficulty using the excess visas in EB2 itself. Otherwise EB3IC will be so happy to use some of these anyway!
In either case, it seems people past July 2007 have a good chance to file... at least a year ahead from that date. My opinion is that if teh date is going to go to Jul 2007 anyway then DoS will make it "Current-Current" and open the flood gates for a month and then everybody gets in and again a long wait starts!
However don't expect teh gates to open before Jun 2011.
http://www.usvisainfo.com/news-mainm...-movement.html
"The Department of State announced that the Indian EB2 category is expected to advance one week in the May Visa Bulletin. The demand for EB1visa numbers has decreased by 50 percent this fiscal year. Last year from October 2009 to February 2010, 22,000 EB1 numbers were used. During the same period this year, only 10,000 to 11,000 have been used. EB1 will be current worldwide all fiscal year. This will free up an estimated 12,000 visa numbers to fall down from EB1 to EB2 this year."
If the demand for EB1 in First Half is 10k-11k (50% of last year) and same trend is predicted for rest of year, Can we expect spill over 20K+ from EB1 alone to EB2, Am I missing some thing here?, If yes this is a great news for EB2 IC.
why so much excitement for just one week movement..could that be a typo..?Quote:
Originally Posted by Osaka001
Spec I believe that that they are saying 12K is available as of now. So if we empirically calculate SOFAD it would be 12K + 12K coming similarly similarly in the second half + ~ 6K this would make it 30K. They would not be projecting for the remainder of the 6 months now IMHO they have come to the concludion that atleast 12K is available for immediate allocation I could be completely wrong on this. Iam going by the worst case scenario that this 12K is total it may well be just EB1. lets all hope for the very best.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
The excitement is not for One week movement, it is about 12K unused visas for EB1 in the H1, the trend is expected to continue..If it is true, I am excited , don't know about others :-)
Any movement attributable to SPILLOVER / out-of-category-SOFAD has to be bigger than 1 week.
So if the movement is going to be 1 week then it will indicate that spillover or out-of-category-sofad will not have taken place yet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osaka001
http://www.immigration-information.c...ability-13774/
Quote Originally Posted by pod1 View Post
Ron,
Thanks for the information. Does it mean the May bulletin which comes in April can have 3-4 months movement in PD cutoff date for EB2-I?
Ron's Answer:
My guess is that you may see a jump of up to one year. It will definitely advance several months. How far beyond that is anyone's guess, but a 2007 cutoff date would not surprise me at all. We are right now combing through our cases to identify and prep everyone with India EB2 priority dates earlier than mid-2007.
I hope. I hope. I hope.
I hope dates move ahead substantially.
I hope there is no KLPD this time. Just dont seem to have strength to face it :D
Wow, this is really good news if it actually holds.
Any chances of them just making it Current to accept more applications, since with these extra 12000 (6 mnths) and approx 20000 (for the whole year) from EB1 we should definitely be able to cross July 07.
Lol your comment made me laugh out loud.Good analogy (wink ) . Anywaz I do hope as well they move substantially.
If in the scenario they do move ,what would be an educated guess for these questions.
1.Will the dates be stuck at July 2007 wall for a long time.
2.I am assuming porting will increase with the movement of dates ( 6K number seems reasonable but more and more EB3 folks might be convinced it is better to port with the movement )
3.For people with dates in the timeframe July 2007-Dec 2007 would it take more than 2 yrs to see a few months movement ?
:( Personally I do not beleive they can make it current given the criticism they got during the 2007 fiasco.
Thanks again
Quote:
Originally Posted by ravi.shah
Q,
You always said EB1 is a big variable. It seems now (per AILA) there is going to be mid yr spillover before the Jul spillover.
Regards,
Yank
If EB1 visa usage has decreased by 50%, then we might expect the PDs for EB2-I/C to move into early 2007 during Sep'11, right? I will be happy if Ron's forecast comes true but in the past I have seen his comments to be a bit too strong and have been way off from what really happened. Hope he is proven correct this time!