June Bulletin out - no change for Eb2I
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5953.html
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June Bulletin out - no change for Eb2I
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5953.html
01SEP08 for EB3-ROW
That's quite good progress.
No change or update for EB2-I in Q4 unfortunately.Quote:
D. EMPLOYMENT THIRD PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY
The Employment-based Third preference category cut-off date for most countries has advanced significantly for a second month in a row. This recent movement of the dates is not indicative of what can be expected in the future. Rapid forward movement of cut-off dates is often followed by a dramatic increase in demand for numbers within three to six months. Once such demand begins to materialize the cut-off date movement will begin to slow, or even stop for a period of time.
2 weeks movement for EB3-I to 08JAN03.
EB3-P only moves one week to 22SEP06
So now EB-3 China is ahead of EB-2 China !!
China EB3 is ahead of China EB2. I think EB2 China should downgrade it to EB3 to get GC faster with porting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I wasn't expecting movement for EB2-I. But no notes about upcoming movements is disappointing. Looks like CO himself is very cautious and doesn't want to commit anything.
gc_soon,Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_soon
I am disappointed too.
At the same time, if I am honest with myself, I don't think he has sufficient information yet to make any prediction.
Do you think that CO will move dates next month? I missed by 15 days. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
This tells me that one of the following two is possible:Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_soon
1) instead of moving the dates forward gradually, he is going to do it in 2 rapid movements: This will not help the porters but would allow the dates to move further ahead.
2) The dates are not going to move at all owing to some hidden demand.
Regards
Nat
Let's be pragmatic about this.Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
a) EB2-WW approval numbers in Q3 to date have remained high.
b) June is the final month of Q3. CO may well have the 27% overall limit to consider.
c) Even if you are in the camp that believes porting cases are already in the DD, then there are 450 EB2-I cases reported with a PD before 2005. If (b) is in play, virtually no movement would have been possible.
d) CO needs more time to assess demand before making movements. Last year, this was the time of year when EB1 approvals really began ramping up.
For those with later PDs, a later (and bigger) movement is really far more beneficial.
Fact that EB3 china has advanced more than its EB2 counterpart might also indicate upcoming EB2 I/C movement that will overshoot the EB3 China's cut off date. There is definitely no incentive for eb3c to port... not sure if it was a calculated effort to get it to this state but if that's approach CO is taking then .........like Nat says, it's possible that dates may advance rapidly in a short burst rather than over a couple of months.
Again ... quite a bland visa bulletin that doesn't reveal much. EB3 ROW movement is surprising. It could point to very very significant porting in EB3ROW.
I haven't calculated that porting - yet. But such porting could seriously threaten EB2I date movement during fourth quarter.
infoseek,Quote:
Originally Posted by infoseek
I think that is just a quirk due to the need to build up an inventory for EB3-C, since applications to July 2007 have now virtually run out.
If you compare it to the 01MAY10 that EB2-C reached last year, it is still nowhere close.
Once the dates retrogress back, EB2-C will be ahead of EB3-C.
First time, when EB2-I has not moved for 3 quarters in a row.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf
Q, but anyway EB3 ROW would not have much demand after July 2007 right? Whether porting or not, as CO said, this movement seems to be to generate demand.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I agree it is rather bland.
The EB3 movement was not a surprise to me. I thought it could be anywhere in the July to December 2008 range. CO, as with EB2-IC last year, needs to build a future inventory before he has to retrogress the dates. The June DD only showed 450 pre July 2007 cases left.
ROW porting appears to be about 3k per year based on EB2 approvals to date. Philippines certainly has some, but I can't put a figure on it. I have no idea about Mexico.
IMO, the vast majority of porting still appears to come from India and dwarfs everything else.
drugoi,Quote:
Originally Posted by drugoi
I'll eat my metaphorical hat if you are not Current in the July VB! :)
No movement in EB2I was expected. whats dissappointing is there are no predictions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec - How do you see the movement in coming months? Its time for a prediction from you buddy . Please provide some insights
gc_soon & spec - if only looks at 485 inventory then what you say makes sense. But EB3 has huge NVC demand as well - almost 100K.
Now - to be fair - not all of that is ROW. 21 is India, 5 is china, 37(!!) is philines and 18 is ROW. So you can see why philines is not moving with rest of the world EB3. But even 18K of ROW NVC coupled with ROW 37 or so 485 demand = 55K.
Now a movement into mid 2007 was mathematically possible which is what whereismygc software predicted. But movement beyond 2007 requires between 10-20K ROW porting or rejections.
I don't see those many rejections. So it tends to make me believe that ROW probably has much higher porting than 3K.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_soon
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Hello Guys,
This is my first post to this forum. This forum was introduced to me by my cousin and ever since then I've been following this forum but never had a chance to contribute. The information being shared on this forum is incredible I must say, especially from gurus like Spec/Q/Matt/Veni etc. Thanks a ton for bringing so much information to this community. I have two quick question guys although it might sound dumb.
1. Is the demand data listed in the monthly VB are applications waiting for visa no to be available? or is it the total no of applications with I-140 approved and waiting to file 485?
2. I've been keeping track of the EB-2I demand data since March 2013. The Demand then was 42,400 until 01/12 and now it is at 42,925. How can this increase when EB2-I dates are stagnated at 01 Sep 04?
Spectator - This tells me by the time the VB for July would be due, the CO might or might not be in a position to make a decision on total movement for the year since 10 days would be too short a time for him to take stalk of the numbers. So I suspect that his commentary in the July bulletin would be one with lot of words and little insight. Correspondinly the movement in July would be guarded.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
The underlying assumption is that there are sufficient to make these movements.
Regards
Nat
Viz, Matt - wats up? No comments on the new VB or Q4 yet!
Was a little disappointed, but I have not lost my optimism.Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
Disappointment was not because dates did not move for EB2-I, it was purely due to lack of clarity/guidance. Yes there are a plenty reasons for not giving guidance. But it would have been helpful. As Spec pointed out, CO needs to consider a lot aspects in providing any guidance officially in visa bulletin.
Regarding EB3-ROW, It is on demand building mode, so logic is no more in play. Again the same applies to EB3- China. Now with respect to EB3-I, it could very well be more visas in play. Not sure at this point.
Regarding EB2-I, there is still new demand showing up before the existing cut off date, though it has considerably reduced. The good part is the approvals are happening, which means visas are availaible. I still think early 2008 is possible. I have noticed some acceleration in processing times both in EB2-ROW and EB1, which could indirectly affect EB2-I, if it continues.
Regarding EB2-ROW new applications in trackitt, there are drops. But it is not a clear indicator.
Matt
Thanks Matt!Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
Few Questions:
1) Is CIR a reason for the lack of clarity/guidance from CO or does it have anything to do with the date movements in Q4 at all (specific to EB2I)?
2) Do you think dates will move for Eb2I in July or only in August/Sep?
3) If July, what is the probability of a new 485 filed in July being approved this fiscal (Read somewhere here or Trackitt about new 485s getting approved in < 3 months time)?
1) Is CIR a reason for the lack of clarity/guidance from CO or does it have anything to do with the date movements in Q4 at all (specific to EB2I)?
High level of EB2-WW approvals may be the primary reason, rest everything is secondary.
2) Do you think dates will move for Eb2I in July or only in August/Sep?
I still believe September will be used as a buffer month to avoid visa wastage etc., So the major movement should be in July or August. it could also be July and August.
3) If July, what is the probability of a new 485 filed in July being approved this fiscal (Read somewhere here or Trackitt about new 485s getting approved in < 3 months time)?
You are correct, there are approvals happening in two to three months. As far as EB2I is concerned, it may not work. As EB3 ROW has gone ahead, the resources of USICS/background checks will be stretched starting this month. There is a very rare chance for a new EB2I 485 to get approved this fiscal be it filed in July or August.
Matt, do you see evidence of high level of EB2-WW approvals in Trackitt or elsewhere? From the earlier discussions in the thread, my understanding was that EB2-WW approvals have actually slowed. Any estimate on EB2-WW consumption so far and for the FY?Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
To all Guru's,
I have been following this forum from past 1 month, and thanks for your valuable analysis and predictions you guys make that keep our hopes alive.
Am just thinking from one angle, where in previous predictions made by USCIS/DOS that EB2I dates would retrogress to what it is now during JuneVB. But,it didn't happen so I guess we are still in a good shape in EB2 prediction what all you Guru's have made in the begining of this topic.
But other hand am little concerned with USCIS/DOS predictions, in the begining of this FY CO said PD will move to mid of 2008 in the Q4. Now considering above predictions, does this prediction still holds good?
Guru's I have a EB2I PD of NOV2007, do I still have any hopes of filing I485 this year.
Thanks in advance for your reply.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
EB-2 China how has priority date 14 July 2008 will get his GC in 3 months. EB-3 China how has priority 14 July 2008 will get his GC not earlier than 2014 summer. Is just seams like EB3C is ahead, in reality EB3C will retrogress soon.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I have mentioned in previous posts that EB3 Cut Off Date movement is far more complicated than EB2-IC last year due to the % of Consular Processed cases. Since they can be made documentarily qualified and approved far faster than a new AOS case, it actually makes more sense to move dates very quickly, then retrogress them to control the number of late PD CP cases that can be approved. If CO wishes to consider this, he doesn't have more than a further one month (at most) to continue moving the dates forward. In contrast EB2 has virtually no CP cases, so it was not a consideration last year.
I see 28.5k EB3 CP cases for EB3-ROW/C/M (excluding EW) at NVC in November 2012. They cover a PD range of about 6 years (on average about 5k per PD Year).
If USCIS process new AOS cases too slowly, CO has the ability to approve later CP cases to avoid wastage of the EB3-ROW/C/M allocation.
Over the period FY2011 to date EB2-ROW has shown the following average (range) [this year to date] for the following :
Porting - 7.9% (6.15% to 10.85%) [6.15%]
Indian Nationality/ROW Chargeability - 10.5% (8.9% to 13.5%) [8.9%]
NIW - 14.4% (10.6% to 18.1%) [18.1%]
As with EB2-IC last year, just because a given Cut Off Date movement bring in a certain number of new applications, that is not the same as all those applications being approved. In fact, as with EB2-IC, the majority of the new EB3 applications will not be approved this FY - they are merely a future inventory that will be depleted over several years. How long depends on how far CO ultimately decides to move the Cut Off Dates.
gc_soon,Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_soon
You can find the monthly Trackitt figures and my estimate of what that may convert to here.
ROW means just that - it does not include China, Mexico or Philippines. Trackitt data for those Countries is not in sufficient quantity to be reliable.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
can we make an assumption that EB2 ROW is not going to require any spillover other than FB visas which are already added to it?. The reason being there is no mention of potential cut off date.
what concerns me is the fact that even though 45,188 is the total allocated for EB2WW, the numbers that you have calculated might exceed 45K (Requiring upto 52K), in that case, can the EB1/EB4 spillover could mostly be consumed by EB2ROW and we can have a scenario of almost negligable spillover to India.
In other words if the EB2ROW demand remains very high , will the spillover from EB1/4 applied across all EB2 categories leaving india with very little benifit.
Specs numbers do go to 52000 but you are assuming a direct correlation between trackitt numbers and actual numbers. EB2ROW while possible cannot consume 52000 visas. The max they have done is in FY 2008 when they consumed around 45000. But if you look at the numbers that year they were off the charts for countries that historically dont have that consumption. Example russia consumed 2500 visas in 2008 has never crossed 1300 after that. Last year was low but if you look at individual countries like Russia or Great Britian they were not really that low compared to normal years like 2011 and 2010. Canada looked very low last year and could cause of the rebound effect consume more this year. So net net according to me EB2ROW will consume around 35000 max taking EB2 WW to about 40000 max. Also trackitt numbers may not map to actual high numbers - case in point FY 2009 - it has the highest of any year approvals on trackitt but actuall approvals did not even cross 33000.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
EB2WW to max. at 40K will be good scenario leading to upto 14K+ spillover to EB2I., but when I looked at the rate of approvals in EB2WW as a whole, they perhaps might have consumed 32K by april which is 7 months!!Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
All the data I used is from spec chart, may be my interpretation might be flawed in someway and I do not want to sound pessimistic but rather quite anxious as without any mention of any future movements, I am growing cynical
Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
If thats really the case then in february it would have been 32k - 4000 arounf 28000. There was no FB SO in Feb and CO would have talked abt high demand. theres not a single time where hes officially mentioned that EB2 WW demand is too high. Keep the hope . there will be movement
flexan,Quote:
Originally Posted by flexan
Welcome to the forum.
#1 The totals are the number of applicants pre-adjudicated and waiting for a VISA number.
#2 This could be due to several reasons, Porting, applications being processed and pre-adjudicatied...etc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Sorry to ask you again here, Stil I am not getting the answer you gave here.
1# that means the count included I-140's who are not yet filed for 485?
No, the number does not include any cases where the I-485 has not been filed.Quote:
Originally Posted by indian1975
By definition, an I-485 cannot be pre-adjudicated if it has never been submitted.
That may very well happen or who knows few lucky ones EB3-C may even get GC this FY itself... I was just pointing to one more evidence how messed up this whole system is..Quote:
Originally Posted by isantem
EB3-C retrogession is a given...every one knows that..
No, I don't think that is an entirely safe assumption. EB2-WW might, in the worst case use a little bit of Fall Down from EB1, but there is no realistic chance of retrogression for EB2-WW. For that to happen, they would have to exceed their initial allocation plus most of the Fall Down from EB1.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
I'm a little confused by what you mean. You may need to expand on what you are saying by quoting which number you are referring to and how you have extrapolated it. We may also have a different use of terminology.Quote:
what concerns me is the fact that even though 45,188 is the total allocated for EB2WW, the numbers that you have calculated might exceed 45K (Requiring upto 52K), in that case, can the EB1/EB4 spillover could mostly be consumed by EB2ROW and we can have a scenario of almost negligable spillover to India.
In other words if the EB2ROW demand remains very high , will the spillover from EB1/4 applied across all EB2 categories leaving india with very little benifit.
45,188 is the initial total for ALL EB2. Ultimately, the number of visas EB2 receives will be 45.2k plus the Fall Down from EB1. By EB1 Fall Down, I mean all spare visas from EB1, EB4 and EB5.
With Fall Down from EB1, it should reach somewhere around 55-60k. If it doesn't, then we are going to have a problem!
The new initial allocation for EB2-WW is 38.9k. WW in this context refers to ROW/M/P i.e. the non-retrogressed Countries in EB2.
Perhaps you have prorated the current figures. That's not valid for ROW, since very high approvals have been seen (and were expected) in the first half of the year. They should settle down now to a lower monthly number.
Sorry that the second part of my post was confusing but You did answer my question that the approval rates will decrease and pro rating will not give the realistic picture
what amount of spillover at the minimum can we anticipate for EB2I this fiscal year with all the data available at this time?
Min could be 0. I'm not being facetious here. There's not been any new info for a while. So if EB2WW uses all the spillover from EB1, then we are left with the initial allocation plus the FB excess.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
That being said, I personally don't expect that to happen. I am in the camp that expects spillover of about 20k SOFAD incl FB excess.