I have updated all the PERM posts in Facts & Data with the Q2 FY2013 DOL data released today.
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I have updated all the PERM posts in Facts & Data with the Q2 FY2013 DOL data released today.
Here's the comparison I get for H1 comparing FY2012 to FY2013 for Certified PERM applications.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
ROW
FY2012 - 5,905
FY2013 - 6,442 (+ 9%)
Mexico
FY2012 - 404
FY2013 - 460 (+ 14%)
Philippines
FY2012 - 488
FY2013 - 563 (+ 15%)
China
FY2012 - 926
FY2013 - 1,336 (+ 44%)
India
FY2012 - 8,859
FY2013 - 12,404 (+ 40%)
Total
FY2012 - 16,582
FY2013 - 21,205 (+ 28%)
I would note that approx 70% of PERM certifications in FY2012 came in H2.
Based on the new demand data it looks like about 17K spillover will be needed to clear the demand till June 2008 for EB2IC. There might be some additional porting depending on when dates start to move. So right now I'd say June 2008 (i.e. COD July 1,2008) is still a possibility.
Come on Viz.. give me 3 more days. It can go up to July 7 2008. (Tsk Tsk, my PD is July 3, 2008)Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
If I had that kind of power, I would say Aug 22 so that I could be current as well :)Quote:
Originally Posted by geevikram
On a more serious note, there is always a +/- factor here. So you very well could make it in considering rarely all demand will get approved in a timely manner.
Based on current demand data, I was wondering how early predictions of DOS estimating a spillover of 13,000 to Eb2I stands at the moment. I believe it should now be more than 13,000
http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/pri...ions-for-fy13/
Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China. At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13. This is subject to change - either up or down - depending upon the usage in the other categories, as explained here.
Please note that User OpenAccount did mention this in post # 535.
Going by the date in the link (11/2/12), I don't think that's relevant anymore. A "guess" 2 months in to the fiscal year is hardly applicable 9 months in to the year. The 6K reduction between FY12 and FY13 mentioned would simply be from EB2ROW retrogression. It did not take in to account FB overflow, potential increased usage in EB1C, EB4 and EB5 and porting. We may still end up with 13K spillover but the math would be different.Quote:
Originally Posted by SmileBaba
June VB prediction: most likely same like last. Good news is this might be last one like this. Q4 starts from July VB, whence the fun should begin.
preditions for the last Q may be metioned in the bulletin, and I think movement almost might be until 2007 and most likeley no movement.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
But mention of spillovers and future movements is good enough for many of us waiting for yrs.
Quick dumb questions:
1)The demand data shown in the USICS bulletin, is it cumulative year wise?
It show EB2 till Jan 1, 2013 as 48,750 so is this cumulative figure ?
2)is Demand data taken from I-140 approved count for from I485 application?
I know these question might have answered in the forum, but as a ready reference
can gurus please answer.
I have been reading a lot of sites and there predictions. Based on some very good analysis by some guys on this site I think Eb2I Will get between 15k to 19K Spill Over.
The Spillover will start applying from July. June will have no movement but will give direction on next 3 months.
mailmvr,Quote:
Originally Posted by mailmvr
Yes, the figures are cumulative.
The 48,750 for all EB2 breaks down to
Pre 2005 ---- 450
2005 -------- 750
2006 ------ 1,175
2007 ------ 5,550
2008 ----- 18,300
2009 ----- 16,525
Post 2009 - 6,000
Total ---- 48,750
The Demand Data is the number of "documentarily qualified" cases reported to the Visa Office.Quote:
2)is Demand data taken from I-140 approved count for from I485 application?
I know these question might have answered in the forum, but as a ready reference
can gurus please answer.
For AOS that is the number preadjudicated I-485 where USCIS have made a request to DOS for a visa number (and it could not be granted due to retrogression).
The definition for Consular Processed cases is a bit more vague, but is certainly no earlier than when the Fee has been paid and may (more likely) be when NVC have notified the Consulate and they have completed their administrative processes.
Hey Spec, I thought we might see some new filings for EB3-ROW from the start of May but there are hardly any. How long is the typical time period when people start adding these cases to trackitt?
kd,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
I wondered if anyone else would notice the lack of new EB3-ROW Trackitt cases.
It isn't just since May.
Since the beginning of the FY, there have only been 8 new EB3-ROW primary cases added. Only 1 of those is post July 2007 and only 2 are even in 2007.
To answer your question, it can take several months to get a reasonable idea of numbers, but additions usually start immediately.
I am very surprised to see such low numbers. At the moment, it appears EB3-ROW have abandoned Trackitt.
Is it possible spec that eb3 I will get a hefty spillover. Is that possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
sbhagwat,Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Don't confuse lack of Trackitt cases with lack of actual cases.
Is it possible? Yes it is possible.
Is it likely. Probably not.
May VB AOS cases have 5 months to be processed and adjudicated by USCIS, which should be plenty of time. Even early June VB cases will have a fair chance of being approved.
In addition, unlike EB2, EB3-ROW/C/M have significant numbers of CP cases (ROW - 15-20%, China - 50-60%, Mexico - 5-7%). Those are entirely within DOS control to make documentarily qualified and approve. If USCIS don't process AOS cases fast enough, DOS can push the COD further to ensure there are sufficient CP cases to use the available visas. That's partly why July 2007 happened. Whether DOS would do that is open to debate, but it is an option available to them.
Game of Spillovers:
Pending I-1485 data from May 2010 was showing around 15.9 K waiting to be greened till May 8 2006. We received spillover of 16.9 K in FY 2010.
Pending I-1485 data from May/June 2011 was showing around 17.2 K waiting to be greened till April 5 2007. We received spillover of 21.2 K in FY 2011.
FY 2012 is irrelevant.
If pending I-485 data this month (May 2013) will show similar number as Jan 2013 and we have around 13.5 K waiting till May 1 2008. We may reach this date with 16.0-16.5 K spillover in Oct 2013.
Can we ask the USCIS/DOS about the number of approved GC in various categories for the given year under FOIA, as there won't be any privacy issues involved I wonder what reason can they show for not releasing it and if we have the info, atleast we can make very close prediction and moreover even ask them to consider advancing dates using spillovers.
I understand it might take a while to get the reply back but not sure whether they would even bother giving the number of approved cases
First that request would need to go to the DOS not USCIS (which is DHS). In a properly worded request, they would have to provide that info. Also, at this point they would only be able to provide Q1 and Q2 numbers.... maybe they could even do up to April.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
Second, I've thought about this before but I remember there being some reason why it didnt make sense at that time. But obviously its a different moment in time.
Can admins delete/archive everything except first and last few pages on this thread? Is there a way to get to the last page without navigating to the discussion and clicking on "last" button?
Why is the delay on VB? CO thinking hard to move the dates?
Usually it comes by 2nd Friday of the month right?
Actually, what i find more intriguing is the amount of time between the release of the demand data and the release of the VB. Nishant2000 used to keep track of the release dates and tried to analyze them to see if there was a pattern. I don't think that he found anything statistically significant.Quote:
Originally Posted by sssbpgmgc
I thought there is a pattern, when ever the DD was release ahead of 8th day of month, CO used to move dates or atleast VB used to come on time, i.e. 10th day of the month.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
Visa Bulletin for June over Phone is released, So far only family dates are released over phone.
F1 22APR06
F2A 8JUN11
F2B 8Jul05
F3 01SEP02
F4 01MAY01
It's weird.. Also the messagae quality is too bad and looks like he dropped the phone on the floor at the end of the call.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
June Bulletin out - no change for Eb2I
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5953.html
01SEP08 for EB3-ROW
That's quite good progress.
No change or update for EB2-I in Q4 unfortunately.Quote:
D. EMPLOYMENT THIRD PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY
The Employment-based Third preference category cut-off date for most countries has advanced significantly for a second month in a row. This recent movement of the dates is not indicative of what can be expected in the future. Rapid forward movement of cut-off dates is often followed by a dramatic increase in demand for numbers within three to six months. Once such demand begins to materialize the cut-off date movement will begin to slow, or even stop for a period of time.
2 weeks movement for EB3-I to 08JAN03.
EB3-P only moves one week to 22SEP06
So now EB-3 China is ahead of EB-2 China !!
China EB3 is ahead of China EB2. I think EB2 China should downgrade it to EB3 to get GC faster with porting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I wasn't expecting movement for EB2-I. But no notes about upcoming movements is disappointing. Looks like CO himself is very cautious and doesn't want to commit anything.
gc_soon,Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_soon
I am disappointed too.
At the same time, if I am honest with myself, I don't think he has sufficient information yet to make any prediction.
Do you think that CO will move dates next month? I missed by 15 days. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
This tells me that one of the following two is possible:Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_soon
1) instead of moving the dates forward gradually, he is going to do it in 2 rapid movements: This will not help the porters but would allow the dates to move further ahead.
2) The dates are not going to move at all owing to some hidden demand.
Regards
Nat
Let's be pragmatic about this.Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
a) EB2-WW approval numbers in Q3 to date have remained high.
b) June is the final month of Q3. CO may well have the 27% overall limit to consider.
c) Even if you are in the camp that believes porting cases are already in the DD, then there are 450 EB2-I cases reported with a PD before 2005. If (b) is in play, virtually no movement would have been possible.
d) CO needs more time to assess demand before making movements. Last year, this was the time of year when EB1 approvals really began ramping up.
For those with later PDs, a later (and bigger) movement is really far more beneficial.
Fact that EB3 china has advanced more than its EB2 counterpart might also indicate upcoming EB2 I/C movement that will overshoot the EB3 China's cut off date. There is definitely no incentive for eb3c to port... not sure if it was a calculated effort to get it to this state but if that's approach CO is taking then .........like Nat says, it's possible that dates may advance rapidly in a short burst rather than over a couple of months.
Again ... quite a bland visa bulletin that doesn't reveal much. EB3 ROW movement is surprising. It could point to very very significant porting in EB3ROW.
I haven't calculated that porting - yet. But such porting could seriously threaten EB2I date movement during fourth quarter.
infoseek,Quote:
Originally Posted by infoseek
I think that is just a quirk due to the need to build up an inventory for EB3-C, since applications to July 2007 have now virtually run out.
If you compare it to the 01MAY10 that EB2-C reached last year, it is still nowhere close.
Once the dates retrogress back, EB2-C will be ahead of EB3-C.
First time, when EB2-I has not moved for 3 quarters in a row.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf
Q, but anyway EB3 ROW would not have much demand after July 2007 right? Whether porting or not, as CO said, this movement seems to be to generate demand.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I agree it is rather bland.
The EB3 movement was not a surprise to me. I thought it could be anywhere in the July to December 2008 range. CO, as with EB2-IC last year, needs to build a future inventory before he has to retrogress the dates. The June DD only showed 450 pre July 2007 cases left.
ROW porting appears to be about 3k per year based on EB2 approvals to date. Philippines certainly has some, but I can't put a figure on it. I have no idea about Mexico.
IMO, the vast majority of porting still appears to come from India and dwarfs everything else.