EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Thanks Spec and Q. In the past when inventory has needed to built up, the CO had moved the dates aggressively forward and retrogressed it. Folks who got chance to file got lucky and could file. Folks who were not so lucky have been waiting for 4-5 years now. Case in point are the ones in early part of 2010. People who missed out in 2010 back in 2011 are still waiting and will continue to wait.

With the use filing date and final action date, am I right in saying that filing dates will be used to do an inventory build up next time around? If so filing date might hold steady for a long time possibly years and will not retrogress?

The reason I ask this question is if I am contemplating a carrier move, I would need a new PERM , I don't want to be caught out without an approved PERM when the next inventory build up happens.

If filing date holds steady and does not retrogress(I guess FD is not supposed to retrogress). It might give time to ppl to get there PERM's approved.

Q and Spec what are your thoughts on how this next inventory build up might happen.

I do not think inventory build up is on CO's mind because there probably isn't much spillover that can clear the backlogs while portings to EB2 are increasing EB2I inventory.

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Originally Posted by knighthood83

Thanks Spec and Q. In the past when inventory has needed to built up, the CO had moved the dates aggressively forward and retrogressed it. Folks who got chance to file got lucky and could file. Folks who were not so lucky have been waiting for 4-5 years now. Case in point are the ones in early part of 2010. People who missed out in 2010 back in 2011 are still waiting and will continue to wait.

With the use filing date and final action date, am I right in saying that filing dates will be used to do an inventory build up next time around? If so filing date might hold steady for a long time possibly years and will not retrogress?

The reason I ask this question is if I am contemplating a carrier move, I would need a new PERM , I don't want to be caught out without an approved PERM when the next inventory build up happens.

If filing date holds steady and does not retrogress(I guess FD is not supposed to retrogress). It might give time to ppl to get there PERM's approved.

Q and Spec what are your thoughts on how this next inventory build up might happen.

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knighthood83,

My personal belief is that the new dual date system will ensure that we will not see rapid date movement again, as was seen in FY2012. That probably allowed 50k people to file under EB2-I.

Under the old single Cut Off Date system, CO had a fairly rare opportunity to move the dates forward as the previous inventory was nearly exhausted. Because the single date controlled both the ability to file and be approved, the window was relatively short - until the new applications started to be adjudicated. It therefore made sense to move the dates a long way during the short and infrequent opportunity afforded.

The new system of a Final Action Date and Application Filing Date separates the approval and filing consequences. Effectively (and this is what has been said), it allows "just in time" filing of applications consistent with the time it takes to adjudicate the application when it is current for approval.

USCIS now have the power to allow or deny inventory buildup of I-485, rather than DOS. Although DOS can set an AFD in the VB, USCIS have the power to reject it for AOS applications (and are prepared to do so). Effectively, they can blackmail DOS to set the date they want, if DOS desire new AOS applications to eventually work their way into the demand file.

So far, USCIS have made it clear by words and action that they will not accept an Application Filing Date that is more than where the Final Application Date is expected to reach in the next one year (or by the end of the current FY).

Therefore, it seems the Application Filing Date is likely to move forward in a fairly steady (if slightly jerky) fashion, based both on the density of applications and expected total visas available.

The density of applications looks like it will increase beyond where the latest date the COD ever reached. The availability of visas in future years is unknown.

USCIS are in a fairly safe place at the moment, with more applications already filed than visas available. It will be interesting to see if they will be less cautious when the Application Filing Date has to exceed 01MAY10.

All that said, my sense is that Application Filing Dates will not move beyond the latest ever seen (01MAY10) until FY2018.

I'd like to (and certainly can be) wrong in that analysis.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

knighthood83,

My personal belief is that the new dual date system will ensure that we will not see rapid date movement again, as was seen in FY2012. That probably allowed 50k people to file under EB2-I.

Under the old single Cut Off Date system, CO had a fairly rare opportunity to move the dates forward as the previous inventory was nearly exhausted. Because the single date controlled both the ability to file and be approved, the window was relatively short - until the new applications started to be adjudicated. It therefore made sense to move the dates a long way during the short and infrequent opportunity afforded.

The new system of a Final Action Date and Application Filing Date separates the approval and filing consequences. Effectively (and this is what has been said), it allows "just in time" filing of applications consistent with the time it takes to adjudicate the application when it is current for approval.

USCIS now have the power to allow or deny inventory buildup of I-485, rather than DOS. Although DOS can set an AFD in the VB, USCIS have the power to reject it for AOS applications (and are prepared to do so). Effectively, they can blackmail DOS to set the date they want, if DOS desire new AOS applications to eventually work their way into the demand file.

So far, USCIS have made it clear by words and action that they will not accept an Application Filing Date that is more than where the Final Application Date is expected to reach in the next one year (or by the end of the current FY).

Therefore, it seems the Application Filing Date is likely to move forward in a fairly steady (if slightly jerky) fashion, based both on the density of applications and expected total visas available.

The density of applications looks like it will increase beyond where the latest date the COD ever reached. The availability of visas in future years is unknown.

USCIS are in a fairly safe place at the moment, with more applications already filed than visas available. It will be interesting to see if they will be less cautious when the Application Filing Date has to exceed 01MAY10.

All that said, my sense is that Application Filing Dates will not move beyond the latest ever seen (01MAY10) until FY2018.

I'd like to (and certainly can be) wrong in that analysis.

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Spec, that's pretty dire situation for EB2 India folks. I am trying to get an idea here so as to make my life decisions on whether to still stay here in this process or call it quits and go back. To that effect does the situation seem better for EB3 India folks? When is a reasonable time frame for people in 2006 to expect their greencards? I know 2016 might be a stretch but is it likely in 2017?

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Originally Posted by iatiam

I was wondering what are the effects of economic slowdown on PERM filings and the overall GC line. The specific questions are,

1. Do you see any slowdown in hiring in your workplace especially for people on visas
2. Has the immigration process slowed down

I am eager to know what is happening in different industries.

I work in the oil and gas and its been a pretty nasty year for us and no end in sight.

Iatiam

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I am also interested in this. I always wonder how Infy/CTS and other companies can keep bringing people every year and I guess it is going up. Do people who get GC under EB1C through these companies stay there long time or do they leave? I am not in IT so now idea things work there.

I saw that there were 12,978 EB1 visas issued to India in 2014. Any idea how much of this is EB1C?

So 2020 for EB2 May 2011 seems like a distant dream?

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Originally Posted by geterdone

I saw that there were 12,978 EB1 visas issued to India in 2014. Any idea how much of this is EB1C?

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You can bet 99% of them are EB1C.
p.s. - For the record - I don't see anything wrong with people getting EB1C visas. It is what it is.

Thanks I agree with that assessment. The situation for EB2 is quite dire.For folks in 2011 and beyond the situation is just horrible.

Having said that one need not stick to a job in the anticipation that dates might get current all of a sudden. Move one with there carriers and just concentrate on that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

knighthood83,

My personal belief is that the new dual date system will ensure that we will not see rapid date movement again, as was seen in FY2012. That probably allowed 50k people to file under EB2-I.

Under the old single Cut Off Date system, CO had a fairly rare opportunity to move the dates forward as the previous inventory was nearly exhausted. Because the single date controlled both the ability to file and be approved, the window was relatively short - until the new applications started to be adjudicated. It therefore made sense to move the dates a long way during the short and infrequent opportunity afforded.

The new system of a Final Action Date and Application Filing Date separates the approval and filing consequences. Effectively (and this is what has been said), it allows "just in time" filing of applications consistent with the time it takes to adjudicate the application when it is current for approval.

USCIS now have the power to allow or deny inventory buildup of I-485, rather than DOS. Although DOS can set an AFD in the VB, USCIS have the power to reject it for AOS applications (and are prepared to do so). Effectively, they can blackmail DOS to set the date they want, if DOS desire new AOS applications to eventually work their way into the demand file.

So far, USCIS have made it clear by words and action that they will not accept an Application Filing Date that is more than where the Final Application Date is expected to reach in the next one year (or by the end of the current FY).

Therefore, it seems the Application Filing Date is likely to move forward in a fairly steady (if slightly jerky) fashion, based both on the density of applications and expected total visas available.

The density of applications looks like it will increase beyond where the latest date the COD ever reached. The availability of visas in future years is unknown.

USCIS are in a fairly safe place at the moment, with more applications already filed than visas available. It will be interesting to see if they will be less cautious when the Application Filing Date has to exceed 01MAY10.

All that said, my sense is that Application Filing Dates will not move beyond the latest ever seen (01MAY10) until FY2018.

I'd like to (and certainly can be) wrong in that analysis.

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To make things worse for people waiting in line RFEs are being issued to people with PD as late as Nov/Dec 2009. That could potentially be waste of money and effort for many of them.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

You can bet 99% of them are EB1C.
p.s. - For the record - I don't see anything wrong with people getting EB1C visas. It is what it is.

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Q, don't misunderstand my question. I know it is a very sensitive issue on immigration forums. I was not trying to say people should not get EB!C visa. I do not know anyone personally who got it under C though I know several who got under B. I was just trying to understand the force driving the increasing demand. I am not in IT and so very curious how it works.

I am a little surprised that 99% of them were under C.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by geterdone

Q, don't misunderstand my question. I know it is a very sensitive issue on immigration forums. I was not trying to say people should not get EB!C visa. I do not know anyone personally who got it under C though I know several who got under B. I was just trying to understand the force driving the increasing demand. I am not in IT and so very curious how it works.

I am a little surprised that 99% of them were under C.

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I didn't misunderstand. I only clarified my own position in case somebody misunderstands my response!

EB1 has PHDs / researchers / outstanding artists-atheletes etc. I personally know Indian PHD folks who are filed in EB2. I do not know ANY body who got a nobel / magassasay or even an olympic gold medal to qualify for EB1-B. That leaves us with eB1C!! Thats my rationale. May be I am wrong by 4-5 %. But I will be mighty surprised if EB1C India approvals are less than 95% of total EB1India approvals!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

knighthood83,

My personal belief is that the new dual date system will ensure that we will not see rapid date movement again, as was seen in FY2012. That probably allowed 50k people to file under EB2-I.

Under the old single Cut Off Date system, CO had a fairly rare opportunity to move the dates forward as the previous inventory was nearly exhausted. Because the single date controlled both the ability to file and be approved, the window was relatively short - until the new applications started to be adjudicated. It therefore made sense to move the dates a long way during the short and infrequent opportunity afforded.

The new system of a Final Action Date and Application Filing Date separates the approval and filing consequences. Effectively (and this is what has been said), it allows "just in time" filing of applications consistent with the time it takes to adjudicate the application when it is current for approval.

USCIS now have the power to allow or deny inventory buildup of I-485, rather than DOS. Although DOS can set an AFD in the VB, USCIS have the power to reject it for AOS applications (and are prepared to do so). Effectively, they can blackmail DOS to set the date they want, if DOS desire new AOS applications to eventually work their way into the demand file.

So far, USCIS have made it clear by words and action that they will not accept an Application Filing Date that is more than where the Final Application Date is expected to reach in the next one year (or by the end of the current FY).

Therefore, it seems the Application Filing Date is likely to move forward in a fairly steady (if slightly jerky) fashion, based both on the density of applications and expected total visas available.

The density of applications looks like it will increase beyond where the latest date the COD ever reached. The availability of visas in future years is unknown.

USCIS are in a fairly safe place at the moment, with more applications already filed than visas available. It will be interesting to see if they will be less cautious when the Application Filing Date has to exceed 01MAY10.

All that said, my sense is that Application Filing Dates will not move beyond the latest ever seen (01MAY10) until FY2018.

I'd like to (and certainly can be) wrong in that analysis.

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That's a great summary! Thanks. Though, it is heartbreaking to know how bleak the future for EB-I looks.

Do you see Filing dates moving beyond Jul2009 this year? Secondly when do you see Filing Dates reaching end of 2009, specifically, Nov2009?

DOS has updated the Annual Immigrant Visa Waiting List Report as of November 1, 2015. This shows of number of Consular Processing cases. For EB1/2/3 it is based on the number of approved I-140 that chose CP sent to NVC by USCIS. It includes dependents if they were specified in the I-140. Itis not analogous to the USCIS Inventory of I-485 because it will cover a far wider range of PD for retrogressed Countries.

You can find it here.

Thanks Spec. The EB5 China backlog is startling !! That alone can retrogress EB5. But the 7% limit saves the category.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

DOS has updated the Annual Immigrant Visa Waiting List Report as of November 1, 2015. This shows of number of Consular Processing cases. For EB1/2/3 it is based on the number of approved I-140 that chose CP sent to NVC by USCIS. It includes dependents if they were specified in the I-140. Itis not analogous to the USCIS Inventory of I-485 because it will cover a far wider range of PD for retrogressed Countries.

You can find it here.

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Guys....Feb 2016 visa bulletin it out.

Final Action Date
EB2 India -- 01AUG08 ( Advanced by 6 months)
EB3 India -- 15JUN04

these are final action dates (and not just dates to build inventory), so one has to assume these dates should cover actual GC numbers..

do the experts think quarterly spillover or something to that effect is applied or so far movements are based on the 2400 only?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by EB2NOV10

Guys....Feb 2016 visa bulletin it out.

Final Action Date
EB2 India -- 01AUG08 ( Advanced by 6 months)
EB3 India -- 15JUN04

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by vishnu

these are final action dates (and not just dates to build inventory), so one has to assume these dates should cover actual GC numbers..

do the experts think quarterly spillover or something to that effect is applied or so far movements are based on the 2400 only?

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It's probably just the 2400 - there are only around 2200 total pending inventory (based on oct 2015 data) + porters prior to this date. The folks in 2007 and beyond are probably the porters who are becoming visible, movement to 08/2008 is nothing to celebrate.

Any additional forward movement in subsequent months though, will probably indicate some QSO. The gurus on this forum may have a different viewpoint.

These EB2I dates have been current before - more than once - so its just porters and any left demand. Doubt that any spillover is being applied. There is some decent inventory in Oct-2008 onwards - so if dates go there then we have something.

There has been no indications of any QSO.

The ridiculous charade in EB3I continues. It will continue until the summer I imagine.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mechanical13

It's probably just the 2400 - there are only around 2200 total pending inventory (based on oct 2015 data) + porters prior to this date. The folks in 2007 and beyond are probably the porters who are becoming visible, movement to 08/2008 is nothing to celebrate.

Any additional forward movement in subsequent months though, will probably indicate some QSO. The gurus on this forum may have a different viewpoint.

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In some of the forum they are saying that for another 4 more visa bulletin it will move either 4 or 6 months per bulletin until mid 2016 (i.e. AUG2009 or DEC2009). Is there any chance in the last quarter to move the dates into 2010 to build inventory?

12/17/2015: DOS Visa Movement Predictions Next Year
•According to the AILA, the following is predicted by the Visa Office: ◦India EB-2: The best scenario of previous prediction is about 8 months per month, but better scenario is now predicted movement ahead from 4 months to 6 months per month. There is a caveat to this prediction. The volume of EB-3 upgradeing to EB-2 appears to rise, which will affect movement of EB-2 for India beginning from around early mid-2016.
◦EB-3 worldwide: It has been moving very rapidly lately but due to the growing demand, the cut-off date may move slow down from here on.
◦EB-5: Unlikely previous alert, it now states that DOS is scheduling visa appointments persuant to the Continuing Resolution and predicted enactment of Omnibums Appropriation Legislation for 2016.

EB2NOV10,

To directly answer your question: I don't think there is any chance of dates moving (whether FAD or AFD) into 2010 this FY.

Generally, many people took CO's comments to refer to movement through the March 2016 VB. It moved 8 months in January and will move 6 months in February.

The March 2016 VB is likely to move the dates beyond 01OCT08. That period has not been current since October 2014 and contains higher numbers of porting applications that have not been current since they became eligible to port. USCIS cannot complete the interfiling process until the case is current in the VB (according to the Adjudicators Field Manual). These cases will not show in the current USCIS Inventory.

If the dates go beyond 01MAY09 at any point, those dates have not been current since April 2012 and there will be at least 4 years worth of porting cases to be added to the Inventory for those dates.

That's at least partly why CO mentioned that the volume of EB-3 upgrading to EB-2 may affect movement of the Final Action Date for India.

Edit: The AFD was at 01JUL09 for Oct/Nov 2015. Possibly the next Inventory will include some of the cases above.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The March 2016 VB is likely to move the dates beyond 01OCT08. That period has not been current since October 2014 and contains higher numbers of porting applications that have not been current since they became eligible to port. USCIS cannot complete the interfiling process until the case is current in the VB (according to the Adjudicators Field Manual). These cases will not show in the current USCIS Inventory.

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That's a great insight. EB2-India folks will do well to listen.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

EB2NOV10,

To directly answer your question: I don't think there is any chance of dates moving (whether FAD or AFD) into 2010 this FY.

Generally, many people took CO's comments to refer to movement through the March 2016 VB. It moved 8 months in January and will move 6 months in February.

The March 2016 VB is likely to move the dates beyond 01OCT08. That period has not been current since October 2014 and contains higher numbers of porting applications that have not been current since they became eligible to port. USCIS cannot complete the interfiling process until the case is current in the VB (according to the Adjudicators Field Manual). These cases will not show in the current USCIS Inventory.

If the dates go beyond 01MAY09 at any point, those dates have not been current since April 2012 and there will be at least 4 years worth of porting cases to be added to the Inventory for those dates.

That's at least partly why CO mentioned that the volume of EB-3 upgrading to EB-2 may affect movement of the Final Action Date for India.

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Yes as per my calcs it seems that next VB should have approx 4 mths movt

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

EB2NOV10,

To directly answer your question: I don't think there is any chance of dates moving (whether FAD or AFD) into 2010 this FY.

Generally, many people took CO's comments to refer to movement through the March 2016 VB. It moved 8 months in January and will move 6 months in February.

The March 2016 VB is likely to move the dates beyond 01OCT08. That period has not been current since October 2014 and contains higher numbers of porting applications that have not been current since they became eligible to port. USCIS cannot complete the interfiling process until the case is current in the VB (according to the Adjudicators Field Manual). These cases will not show in the current USCIS Inventory.

If the dates go beyond 01MAY09 at any point, those dates have not been current since April 2012 and there will be at least 4 years worth of porting cases to be added to the Inventory for those dates.

That's at least partly why CO mentioned that the volume of EB-3 upgrading to EB-2 may affect movement of the Final Action Date for India.

Edit: The AFD was at 01JUL09 for Oct/Dec 2015. Possibly the next Inventory will include some of the cases above.

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Thank you Spec

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

EB2NOV10,

If the dates go beyond 01MAY09 at any point, those dates have not been current since April 2012 and there will be at least 4 years worth of porting cases to be added to the Inventory for those dates.

.

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That is indeed a very good observation Spec. I was just looking at the pending inventory and thought it does not take much SO to take FAD to mid 2009. So what do EB3 folks post Oct 2008 need to do to become eligible for EB2 dates assuming they have already filed EB2 and have a 140 pending? Do they just file some paper work that is just procedural and is more or less instantaneous? or would it take a couple of months for USCIS to recognize that they now have a new EB2 case?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vyruss

That is indeed a very good observation Spec. I was just looking at the pending inventory and thought it does not take much SO to take FAD to mid 2009. So what do EB3 folks post Oct 2008 need to do to become eligible for EB2 dates assuming they have already filed EB2 and have a 140 pending? Do they just file some paper work that is just procedural and is more or less instantaneous? or would it take a couple of months for USCIS to recognize that they now have a new EB2 case?

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vyruss,

I think most cases will already have an EB2 I-140 approved, given the timescales. Many people will in any case have used PP to benefit from from the approved I-140 for H1B extension purposes.

I don't have any insight into USCIS procedures for handling these cases Other than what is in the AFM), the time required to do so, or whether those procedures have changed since the introduction of Application Filing Dates. I'm sure USCIS are very aware of these cases.

I have a sneaking suspicion that it is no coincidence that USCIS only allowed the 01JUL09 AFD for 2 months. During that time, they could not only accept new applications, but also complete the interfiling for previous cases with an earlier PD that were awaiting becoming current. If so, they just be like any other EB2 case when the FAD becomes current.

If so, there's probably already more than enough cases before the 01JUL09 date compared to available visas for the FY.

The next Inventory will be interesting, but previously it took more than one Inventory for the totality of the numbers to become apparent.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I have a sneaking suspicion that it is no coincidence that USCIS only allowed the 01JUL09 AFD for 2 months. During that time, they could not only accept new applications, but also complete the interfiling for previous cases with an earlier PD that were awaiting becoming current. If so, they just be like any other EB2 case when the FAD becomes current.

If so, there's probably already more than enough cases before the 01JUL09 date compared to available visas for the FY.

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Maybe I've misreading this due to excessive optimism, but does this mean you think final action dates could reach July 2009 in this year? My EB2-I priority date is 6/29/09 - we applied for I-485 in 2012 and got the EAD/AP, just waiting on the GC approval now. Thanks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by prodigy_max4

Maybe I've misreading this due to excessive optimism, but does this mean you think final action dates could reach July 2009 in this year? My EB2-I priority date is 6/29/09 - we applied for I-485 in 2012 and got the EAD/AP, just waiting on the GC approval now. Thanks.

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I think what Spec merely stated was that USCIS may have enough cases to completely use up this years quota with the current inventory that has piled up prior to July 2009. USCIS may re-calibrate it when they get a complete idea after they let all the porting cases to show up as EB2 (at least internally). Hence Spec is looking for an inventory report. In the next inventory report many porting cases would show up in EB2. Once again USCIS has some estimate of how many porting cases are waiting in line, they just want to confirm it before moving the next bulletins. It may be July 2009, or before that, but definitely after Aug 2008 :p

Hi Gurus,

Thanks for your informative posts that help legal immigrants get clarity on various subjects. I have a question regarding promotions while working for the same employer that files for PERM/I-140. I was working as Sr. Software Engineer and now i got promoted as Technology Manager. Most of the responsibilities remains same but there are few new responsibilities such as delivery, few folks are reporting to me etc. I would say 80% responsibilities are still same as mentioned in my PERM.

What is the USCIS position on title change and also slight variation in job description? Do I have to get my employer refile PERM? If my job responsibilities stays same as before but the title is changed, do I still need to refile PERM? Any memos, field manuals, USCIS guidelines on this subject that I can refer to?

Waiting eagerly for your thoughts.
Thank you.

Hi Gurus,
Based on the Indian PERM filings over the years:

2008 - 23.7k
2009 - 16.7k
2010 - 22.3k
2011 - 30.0k
2012 - 36.7k
2013 - 36.0k
2014 - 40.0k
2015 - 43.7k

what are the chances of EB2-I for Nov 2010 to become current?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by EB2NOV10

Hi Gurus,
Based on the Indian PERM filings over the years:

2008 - 23.7k
2009 - 16.7k
2010 - 22.3k
2011 - 30.0k
2012 - 36.7k
2013 - 36.0k
2014 - 40.0k
2015 - 43.7k

what are the chances of EB2-I for Nov 2010 to become current?

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It is a moving time scale. On an average the wait time has been 5 to 6 years in the past. Now the norm is 6-7 years, it may change to 8 years without any major legislation. I would rather look at the averages and not pin hopes on predictions based on number crunching which are very vague to begin with anyway. A lot of factors come into play. The only known thing is the total number of GCs that can be issued in a given year. There are reports that USCIS wastes some visas every year. So even the total number of actual GCs issued becomes a variable. With so many factors, including dependent ratio, porting, WW demand etc., going with the average makes more sense. Also note that the average itself is a number that has been increasing. So you are easily looking at October 2017 to September 2018 if you go by that reasoning.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vyruss

It is a moving time scale. On an average the wait time has been 5 to 6 years in the past. Now the norm is 6-7 years, it may change to 8 years without any major legislation. I would rather look at the averages and not pin hopes on predictions based on number crunching which are very vague to begin with anyway. A lot of factors come into play. The only known thing is the total number of GCs that can be issued in a given year. There are reports that USCIS wastes some visas every year. So even the total number of actual GCs issued becomes a variable. With so many factors, including dependent ratio, porting, WW demand etc., going with the average makes more sense. Also note that the average itself is a number that has been increasing. So you are easily looking at October 2017 to September 2018 if you go by that reasoning.

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Thank you vyruss.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vyruss

There are reports that USCIS wastes some visas every year.

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vyruss,

No longer. Let's look at the facts for the last few years:

FY ------- Allocation - Visas Issued - Over/(Under)
FY2012 ------ 144,951 ------ 144,647 -------- (304)
FY2013 ------ 158,466 ------ 161,269 ------- 2,803
FY2014 ------ 150,241 ------ 151,359 ------- 1,118

We are already at 7+ years considering that 2009 people will not be done in 2016. Without legislation we are looking at a situation significantly worse than EB3I. With EB2I density shooting up in 2010 onwards, for folks joining the queue right now 10, 12, 15, 20 years to get GC are all on the table.

We might even reach EB2I downgrades to EB3I sooner than straight EB2I. i.e. EB3I CoD might cross EB2I - like it is for EB-C.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vyruss

It is a moving time scale. On an average the wait time has been 5 to 6 years in the past. Now the norm is 6-7 years, it may change to 8 years without any major legislation. ...

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I do have a question for every one,

1. When do you expect to see EB3ROW inventory to clear out and for EB3ROW to EB3I SO to happen? If it is summer, is it too late for EB3 folks to complete medicals given the old medicals are expired?

2. If EB3I moves forward and the inventory is cleared out partially or completely, what impact would it have on EB2I. If the porting slowes down (as it should), would it result in more than expected SO to EB2I.

As Deng said, 2009ners are already at PD+7 years so any SO coming that way would be useful, to say the least.

Iatiam

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

EB2NOV10,

To directly answer your question: I don't think there is any chance of dates moving (whether FAD or AFD) into 2010 this FY.

Generally, many people took CO's comments to refer to movement through the March 2016 VB. It moved 8 months in January and will move 6 months in February.

The March 2016 VB is likely to move the dates beyond 01OCT08. That period has not been current since October 2014 and contains higher numbers of porting applications that have not been current since they became eligible to port. USCIS cannot complete the interfiling process until the case is current in the VB (according to the Adjudicators Field Manual). These cases will not show in the current USCIS Inventory.

If the dates go beyond 01MAY09 at any point, those dates have not been current since April 2012 and there will be at least 4 years worth of porting cases to be added to the Inventory for those dates.

That's at least partly why CO mentioned that the volume of EB-3 upgrading to EB-2 may affect movement of the Final Action Date for India.

Edit: The AFD was at 01JUL09 for Oct/Nov 2015. Possibly the next Inventory will include some of the cases above.

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March VB will progress to 15NOV08.
I think 01OCT08 was PD cut off in Aug-2015 Bulletin for EB2-I. So majority of the porting should have been reflecting in the USCIS Oct, 2015 inventory and interfiling should have been processed.
In October-2014 VB, EB2-I PD cut off is 01MAY09. So its only 27 months ( 2 years and 1 quarter) worth of porting cases to be added not four years porting cases.

In general interfiling happens, when EB3-I folks already filed I-485 and port the existing cases to be processed under EB2. So I don't think anyone beyond PD JULY 2007 PD could have ever filed I-485 with EB3. They either ported to EB2 and filed ( this case they already accounted in the inventory) or just waiting to file since they upgraded to EB2 after PD retrogression.

CO could be indicating both side of porting ( folks who had filed already I-485 or filing new I-485).

All - I have moved all RFE discussion in a separate thread HERE

Appreciate your cooperation. Lets keep this thread for calculations and predictions.

I hope the filing date will start move by 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2016. It will move till Jan 2010 I guess by this year end.

Hi,

I have the same question but PD is DEC-2013. I would appreciate to know whats is the guesstimate year for DEC-2013 to be current.

Appreciate a reply.

Oh man... so close... yet so far. My PD is Nov 20th 2008. I am really hoping to get GC before May as I have travel plans. :(

EB3I folks seem to be getting RFE's upto 31 Dec 04. Anyone wanna predict the March VB EB3I PD Movement?