EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

May DD didn't have a spike and thousands and thousands of cases added like Ron mentions.

"The demand data chart for May showed a significant spike in EB2 India cases at the USCIS."
"With this new data - the thousands and thousands of cases the USCIS "just suddenly found" - I doubt that there will be much movement the balance of this fiscal year."

http://www.immigration-information.c...n-may-bulletin

Hopefully this is just Ron's prediction and his predictions have been extreme. usually optimistic.

I saw this in the old Murthy Nov 2012 predictions for FY 2013.
"Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2): India

The DOS has received more than 20,000 EB2 India cases from USCIS that are awaiting issuance of visa numbers. Under the current system, once the USCIS reviews a case and finds it appropriate for approval, the USCIS makes an automated request to the DOS for a visa number. If no number is available, the request is held by the DOS, awaiting action once a visa number for the particular case and priority date becomes available. These cases are referred to as preadjudicated."

http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/pri...ions-for-fy13/

I wonder if this 20,000 number is the same one being referred here

Is this 20,000 number the same as one mentioned in murthy website in Nov 2012?

"The DOS has received more than 20,000 EB2 India cases from USCIS that are awaiting issuance of visa numbers. Under the current system, once the USCIS reviews a case and finds it appropriate for approval, the USCIS makes an automated request to the DOS for a visa number. If no number is available, the request is held by the DOS, awaiting action once a visa number for the particular case and priority date becomes available. These cases are referred to as preadjudicated."

http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/pri...ions-for-fy13/

I hope next time when someone wants to spread any "NEWS" from Ron , its better to ask him to clarify and explain in detail before it spreads like wildfire to other forums.

I will await the june bulletin predictions for last quarter, if any released. if CO mentions No movement to movement of just couple of years , then that might be a reason to predict something very bleak otherwise still i would consider the projections by spec to bee the closest to reality.

Q and Spec use facts and some well documented assumptions based on historic trends. Hearsay is never part of the equation. Lets just wait a few more days to see if any of this shows up in the demand data.

From my perspective, "finding" an additional 20k apps seems like a stretch as it defeats historical trends. I'm not saying its impossible but it doesn't pass my "sniff test".

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Q and Spec use facts and some well documented assumptions based on historic trends. Hearsay is never part of the equation. Lets just wait a few more days to see if any of this shows up in the demand data.

From my perspective, "finding" an additional 20k apps seems like a stretch as it defeats historical trends. I'm not saying its impossible but it doesn't pass my "sniff test".

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I am only going to make this single comment.

It does not pass my "sniff test" either for a number of reasons.

a) It is a completely unsubstantiated rumour. Ron Gotcher, who has a less than stellar track record of understanding in this area (but who has been a great source of information from AILA), has "seen" a huge increase in demand in the May DD that simply does not exist as far as I can see. He has provided no back up for this assertion. gc_soon has already mentioned this and it was a statement I didn't understand when Ron made it originally.

b) The other Trackitt user has previously said his attorneys are also saying this and that dates would retrogress earlier in the year. That did not happen.

c) An extra 20k would bring the number of EB2-I cases, as a result of last year's movement to to May 2010, to over 60k. That is an extremely high level based on the underlying PERM numbers and would require a very high Overall Ratio to achieve.

There are scenarios with high EB1, EB2-WW and high porting usage that could still lead to a very bad year and little movement. At the moment, that does not seem very likely, but suddenly finding 20k extra cases is in a different league of "unlikeliness" IMHO.

Finally, let's not shoot the messenger. We are all adult enough to make our own mind up about any information that might be posted. If people are dissuaded from posting what they find, we run the risk of missing some real nuggets of information.

The Demand Data should be out next week and (in particular) the next USCIS Inventory should be published before the end of the month. Let's see what they have to say.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I am only going to make this single comment.

It does not pass my "sniff test" either for a number of reasons.

a) It is a completely unsubstantiated rumour. Ron Gotcher, who has a less than stellar track record of understanding in this area (but who has been a great source of information from AILA), has "seen" a huge increase in demand in the May DD that simply does not exist as far as I can see. He has provided no back up for this assertion. gc_soon has already mentioned this and it was a statement I didn't understand when Ron made it originally.

b) The other Trackitt user has previously said his attorneys are also saying this and that dates would retrogress earlier in the year. That did not happen.

c) An extra 20k would bring the number of EB2-I cases, as a result of last year's movement to to May 2010, to over 60k. That is an extremely high level based on the underlying PERM numbers and would require a very high Overall Ratio to achieve.

There are scenarios with high EB1, EB2-WW and high porting usage that could still lead to a very bad year and little movement. At the moment, that does not seem very likely, but suddenly finding 20k extra cases is in a different league of "unlikeliness" IMHO.

Finally, let's not shoot the messenger. We are all adult enough to make our own mind up about any information that might be posted. If people are dissuaded from posting what they find, we run the risk of missing some real nuggets of information.

The Demand Data should be out next week and (in particular) the next USCIS Inventory should be published before the end of the month. Let's see what they have to say.

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Spec,

About the scenarios where EB2WW will basically eat up EB1 spillover giving nothing to India. I was looking at FY 2008. That year after the 2007 fiasco EB 2 WW basically consumed 48000 visas. I was looking which countries contributed to this and found basically S. Korea and ofcourse P and M. Do you know why that happened that year and do you see 48000 visas getting approved for EB2 again like that year? 2008- EB2 I got 14000 but that was cause of EB5 and EB1 which this year have high demand. I hope you can provide some hope

Quick question, Say a person applied I-485 under EB3 category and EAD kicked off for this 485. Later that person applied for PERM after moving to second company, now what would be the CLASS_OF_ADMISSION in PERM report for this person's position.

I see Parloee as CLASS_OF_ADMISSION in PERM report and more number of Indians has applied under this category. Trying to understand the analogy between Parloee and EB2 Upgrades.

PERM number do not support 20K extra numbers "suddenly found" between July 2007 to April 2010. (34 months)

19,726 GC given in FY2012 + 40000 pending inventory in demand data(34 months). So 60 K is already counted and most of approvals are 2007 and 2008.

If we assume PERM data ratio 4:1 for EB2I:EB3I per year. (very high assumption for 2007, 08, 09 and 2010)
60 K is total number in ball park range and with above ratio 48 K numbers can be EB2I certified PERM

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations

Another 12K may be porting in past 2 years counted/preadjudicated.

So Math do not support these 20K number "suddenly found". (up to 5K may be possible )
Murthy's mention of 20K is different from Ron Gotcher and does not say that it was not counted.

My 2 cents.

Guys

Sorry for being out of pocket for quite some time. I read this over the weekend and now I got the time to pen down some thoughts. Here are my thoughts on the 20K cases rumour.

First - lawyers are not at all conversant with numbers and simulations that we do.
Two - lawyers have an incentive to create fear
Three - I am fairly certain that a lot of lawyers and other people read this forum and then reproduce the info in different forms on other forums.

Bottomline - I have not seen or heard anything that substantiates 20K rumour. So relax. Another strong reason I would definitely not believe 20K number is because USCIS has really improved a lot under Mr. Khatri in terms of their operations as well as responsiveness. In the old days it would be possible that there are 20K cases lying around somewhere. But not today.

So please put a stop on this discussion and lets not scare people. Agree w Spec that whoever posted it first - did so in good faith - so lets not beat the guy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Guys

Sorry for being out of pocket for quite some time. I read this over the weekend and now I got the time to pen down some thoughts. Here are my thoughts on the 20K cases rumour.

First - lawyers are not at all conversant with numbers and simulations that we do.
Two - lawyers have an incentive to create fear
Three - I am fairly certain that a lot of lawyers and other people read this forum and then reproduce the info in different forms on other forums.

Bottomline - I have not seen or heard anything that substantiates 20K rumour. So relax. Another strong reason I would definitely not believe 20K number is because USCIS has really improved a lot under Mr. Khatri in terms of their operations as well as responsiveness. In the old days it would be possible that there are 20K cases lying around somewhere. But not today.

So please put a stop on this discussion and lets not scare people. Agree w Spec that whoever posted it first - did so in good faith - so lets not beat the guy.

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No wonder, folks on this forum like you, Q.. You have your GC in hand and yet you take the time and effort to answer questions and provide insight to folks waiting in the queue.. And that too at a unlikely hour of 4:30 AM on a Sunday night..

You rock dude!!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Guys

Sorry for being out of pocket for quite some time. I read this over the weekend and now I got the time to pen down some thoughts. Here are my thoughts on the 20K cases rumour.

First - lawyers are not at all conversant with numbers and simulations that we do.
Two - lawyers have an incentive to create fear
Three - I am fairly certain that a lot of lawyers and other people read this forum and then reproduce the info in different forms on other forums.

Bottomline - I have not seen or heard anything that substantiates 20K rumour. So relax. Another strong reason I would definitely not believe 20K number is because USCIS has really improved a lot under Mr. Khatri in terms of their operations as well as responsiveness. In the old days it would be possible that there are 20K cases lying around somewhere. But not today.

So please put a stop on this discussion and lets not scare people. Agree w Spec that whoever posted it first - did so in good faith - so lets not beat the guy.

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I agree with Q's comments above. In these days USCIS and DOS are indeed very cautious about these numbers. I hope this month DD and VB will have some information on future movement. Hang in there... I see light at the end of the tunnel, But not sure I can reach end of the tunnel before this fiscal year. Let's hope for the best, this has been the practice for 5 years now.

PERM Second Quarter numbers were released.

Report has both Good Numbers and Bad Numbers

Good Numbers,
for last two quarters in 2013

Only 7465 certified are Non-Indians and Non-Chinese. Out of these 7465, based on salary and job level 3911 falls under EB2 Category. Multiply by 3 close to 12k, which is the number we are expecting per month for ROW under EB2 category.

Bad Numbers:-
Out of total 21205 certified/certified-expired, 12404 certified/certified-expired cases belong to Indians. Which is greater 58%.
Out the 12404 Indian certified/certified-expired cases, based on job level and salary more than 80% of them fall under EB2 Category.

If a EB3 applicant has applied for 485, and trying to upgrade to EB2 and if this person CLASS_OF_ADMISSION is Parloee, then 388 Indian applicants in last two quarters got upgraded. 16 Non Indians got upgraded. (I'm assuming that if the applicant is on EAD and applied for second GC, then applicant CLASS_OF_ADMISSION is Parloee; I could be wrong)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

PERM Second Quarter numbers were released.

Report has both Good Numbers and Bad Numbers

Good Numbers,
for last two quarters in 2013

Only 7465 certified are Non-Indians and Non-Chinese. Out of these 7465, based on salary and job level 3911 falls under EB2 Category. Multiply by 3 close to 12k, which is the number we are expecting per month for ROW under EB2 category.

Bad Numbers:-
Out of total 21205 certified/certified-expired, 12404 certified/certified-expired cases belong to Indians. Which is greater 58%.
Out the 12404 Indian certified/certified-expired cases, based on job level and salary more than 80% of them fall under EB2 Category.

If a EB3 applicant has applied for 485, and trying to upgrade to EB2 and if this person CLASS_OF_ADMISSION is Parloee, then 388 Indian applicants in last two quarters got upgraded. 16 Non Indians got upgraded. (I'm assuming that if the applicant is on EAD and applied for second GC, then applicant CLASS_OF_ADMISSION is Parloee; I could be wrong)

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how does the 7465 number compare with similar quarter last year. do you know?

June DD is out- I dont see any trace of the the extra 20000 visas Ron was talking about. so we can put that to bed

I have updated all the PERM posts in Facts & Data with the Q2 FY2013 DOL data released today.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

how does the 7465 number compare with similar quarter last year. do you know?

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Here's the comparison I get for H1 comparing FY2012 to FY2013 for Certified PERM applications.

ROW

FY2012 - 5,905
FY2013 - 6,442 (+ 9%)

Mexico

FY2012 - 404
FY2013 - 460 (+ 14%)

Philippines

FY2012 - 488
FY2013 - 563 (+ 15%)

China

FY2012 - 926
FY2013 - 1,336 (+ 44%)

India

FY2012 - 8,859
FY2013 - 12,404 (+ 40%)

Total

FY2012 - 16,582
FY2013 - 21,205 (+ 28%)

I would note that approx 70% of PERM certifications in FY2012 came in H2.

Based on the new demand data it looks like about 17K spillover will be needed to clear the demand till June 2008 for EB2IC. There might be some additional porting depending on when dates start to move. So right now I'd say June 2008 (i.e. COD July 1,2008) is still a possibility.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Based on the new demand data it looks like about 17K spillover will be needed to clear the demand till June 2008 for EB2IC. There might be some additional porting depending on when dates start to move. So right now I'd say June 2008 (i.e. COD July 1,2008) is still a possibility.

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Come on Viz.. give me 3 more days. It can go up to July 7 2008. (Tsk Tsk, my PD is July 3, 2008)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by geevikram

Come on Viz.. give me 3 more days. It can go up to July 7 2008. (Tsk Tsk, my PD is July 3, 2008)

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If I had that kind of power, I would say Aug 22 so that I could be current as well :)

On a more serious note, there is always a +/- factor here. So you very well could make it in considering rarely all demand will get approved in a timely manner.

Based on current demand data, I was wondering how early predictions of DOS estimating a spillover of 13,000 to Eb2I stands at the moment. I believe it should now be more than 13,000

http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/pri...ions-for-fy13/

Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China. At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13. This is subject to change - either up or down - depending upon the usage in the other categories, as explained here.

Please note that User OpenAccount did mention this in post # 535.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SmileBaba

Based on current demand data, I was wondering how early predictions of DOS estimating a spillover of 13,000 to Eb2I stands at the moment. I believe it should now be more than 13,000

http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/pri...ions-for-fy13/
Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China. At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13. This is subject to change - either up or down - depending upon the usage in the other categories, as explained here.

Please note that User OpenAccount did mention this in post # 535.

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Going by the date in the link (11/2/12), I don't think that's relevant anymore. A "guess" 2 months in to the fiscal year is hardly applicable 9 months in to the year. The 6K reduction between FY12 and FY13 mentioned would simply be from EB2ROW retrogression. It did not take in to account FB overflow, potential increased usage in EB1C, EB4 and EB5 and porting. We may still end up with 13K spillover but the math would be different.

June VB prediction: most likely same like last. Good news is this might be last one like this. Q4 starts from July VB, whence the fun should begin.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

June VB prediction: most likely same like last. Good news is this might be last one like this. Q4 starts from July VB, whence the fun should begin.

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preditions for the last Q may be metioned in the bulletin, and I think movement almost might be until 2007 and most likeley no movement.
But mention of spillovers and future movements is good enough for many of us waiting for yrs.

Quick dumb questions:

1)The demand data shown in the USICS bulletin, is it cumulative year wise?

It show EB2 till Jan 1, 2013 as 48,750 so is this cumulative figure ?


2)is Demand data taken from I-140 approved count for from I485 application?

I know these question might have answered in the forum, but as a ready reference
can gurus please answer.

I have been reading a lot of sites and there predictions. Based on some very good analysis by some guys on this site I think Eb2I Will get between 15k to 19K Spill Over.

The Spillover will start applying from July. June will have no movement but will give direction on next 3 months.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mailmvr

Quick dumb questions:

1)The demand data shown in the USICS bulletin, is it cumulative year wise?

It show EB2 till Jan 1, 2013 as 48,750 so is this cumulative figure ?

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mailmvr,

Yes, the figures are cumulative.

The 48,750 for all EB2 breaks down to

Pre 2005 ---- 450
2005 -------- 750
2006 ------ 1,175
2007 ------ 5,550
2008 ----- 18,300
2009 ----- 16,525
Post 2009 - 6,000

Total ---- 48,750

Quote:

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2)is Demand data taken from I-140 approved count for from I485 application?

I know these question might have answered in the forum, but as a ready reference
can gurus please answer.

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The Demand Data is the number of "documentarily qualified" cases reported to the Visa Office.

For AOS that is the number preadjudicated I-485 where USCIS have made a request to DOS for a visa number (and it could not be granted due to retrogression).

The definition for Consular Processed cases is a bit more vague, but is certainly no earlier than when the Fee has been paid and may (more likely) be when NVC have notified the Consulate and they have completed their administrative processes.

Hey Spec, I thought we might see some new filings for EB3-ROW from the start of May but there are hardly any. How long is the typical time period when people start adding these cases to trackitt?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Hey Spec, I thought we might see some new filings for EB3-ROW from the start of May but there are hardly any. How long is the typical time period when people start adding these cases to trackitt?

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kd,

I wondered if anyone else would notice the lack of new EB3-ROW Trackitt cases.

It isn't just since May.

Since the beginning of the FY, there have only been 8 new EB3-ROW primary cases added. Only 1 of those is post July 2007 and only 2 are even in 2007.

To answer your question, it can take several months to get a reasonable idea of numbers, but additions usually start immediately.

I am very surprised to see such low numbers. At the moment, it appears EB3-ROW have abandoned Trackitt.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

kd,

I wondered if anyone else would notice the lack of new EB3-ROW Trackitt cases.

It isn't just since May.

Since the beginning of the FY, there have only been 8 new EB3-ROW primary cases added. Only 1 of those is post July 2007 and only 2 are even in 2007.

To answer your question, it can take several months to get a reasonable idea of numbers, but additions usually start immediately.

I am very surprised to see such low numbers. At the moment, it appears EB3-ROW have abandoned Trackitt.

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Is it possible spec that eb3 I will get a hefty spillover. Is that possible.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

Is it possible spec that eb3 I will get a hefty spillover. Is that possible.

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sbhagwat,

Don't confuse lack of Trackitt cases with lack of actual cases.

Is it possible? Yes it is possible.

Is it likely. Probably not.

May VB AOS cases have 5 months to be processed and adjudicated by USCIS, which should be plenty of time. Even early June VB cases will have a fair chance of being approved.

In addition, unlike EB2, EB3-ROW/C/M have significant numbers of CP cases (ROW - 15-20%, China - 50-60%, Mexico - 5-7%). Those are entirely within DOS control to make documentarily qualified and approve. If USCIS don't process AOS cases fast enough, DOS can push the COD further to ensure there are sufficient CP cases to use the available visas. That's partly why July 2007 happened. Whether DOS would do that is open to debate, but it is an option available to them.

Game of Spillovers:

Pending I-1485 data from May 2010 was showing around 15.9 K waiting to be greened till May 8 2006. We received spillover of 16.9 K in FY 2010.
Pending I-1485 data from May/June 2011 was showing around 17.2 K waiting to be greened till April 5 2007. We received spillover of 21.2 K in FY 2011.

FY 2012 is irrelevant.

If pending I-485 data this month (May 2013) will show similar number as Jan 2013 and we have around 13.5 K waiting till May 1 2008. We may reach this date with 16.0-16.5 K spillover in Oct 2013.

Can we ask the USCIS/DOS about the number of approved GC in various categories for the given year under FOIA, as there won't be any privacy issues involved I wonder what reason can they show for not releasing it and if we have the info, atleast we can make very close prediction and moreover even ask them to consider advancing dates using spillovers.
I understand it might take a while to get the reply back but not sure whether they would even bother giving the number of approved cases

Quote:

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Originally Posted by indiani

Can we ask the USCIS/DOS about the number of approved GC in various categories for the given year under FOIA, as there won't be any privacy issues involved I wonder what reason can they show for not releasing it and if we have the info, atleast we can make very close prediction and moreover even ask them to consider advancing dates using spillovers.
I understand it might take a while to get the reply back but not sure whether they would even bother giving the number of approved cases

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First that request would need to go to the DOS not USCIS (which is DHS). In a properly worded request, they would have to provide that info. Also, at this point they would only be able to provide Q1 and Q2 numbers.... maybe they could even do up to April.

Second, I've thought about this before but I remember there being some reason why it didnt make sense at that time. But obviously its a different moment in time.

Can admins delete/archive everything except first and last few pages on this thread? Is there a way to get to the last page without navigating to the discussion and clicking on "last" button?

Why is the delay on VB? CO thinking hard to move the dates?
Usually it comes by 2nd Friday of the month right?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sssbpgmgc

Why is the delay on VB? CO thinking hard to move the dates?
Usually it comes by 2nd Friday of the month right?

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Actually, what i find more intriguing is the amount of time between the release of the demand data and the release of the VB. Nishant2000 used to keep track of the release dates and tried to analyze them to see if there was a pattern. I don't think that he found anything statistically significant.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

Actually, what i find more intriguing is the amount of time between the release of the demand data and the release of the VB. Nishant2000 used to keep track of the release dates and tried to analyze them to see if there was a pattern. I don't think that he found anything statistically significant.

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I thought there is a pattern, when ever the DD was release ahead of 8th day of month, CO used to move dates or atleast VB used to come on time, i.e. 10th day of the month.

Visa Bulletin for June over Phone is released, So far only family dates are released over phone.

F1 22APR06
F2A 8JUN11
F2B 8Jul05
F3 01SEP02
F4 01MAY01

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

Visa Bulletin for June over Phone is released, So far only family dates are released over phone.

F1 22APR06
F2A 8JUN11
F2B 8Jul05
F3 01SEP02
F4 01MAY01

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It's weird.. Also the messagae quality is too bad and looks like he dropped the phone on the floor at the end of the call.