EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I've kept stats on Trackitt applications since October 2011 which might throw some light on this.

The numbers below show the % of Trackitt applications yet to be approved and the number left to be approved.


----------- % ----- No.
---------- Not ---- Not
- PD ----- App. --- App.
Jan-08 -- 59.59% -- 115
Feb-08 -- 55.93% --- 99
Mar-08 -- 69.23% -- 108
Apr-08 -- 90.52% -- 105
May-08 -- 86.89% -- 106
Jun-08 -- 88.57% --- 93
Jul-08 -- 86.67% --- 78
Aug-08 -- 90.08% -- 118
Sep-08 -- 88.51% --- 77
Oct-08 -- 88.00% --- 88
Nov-08 -- 93.33% --- 98
Dec-08 -- 90.52% -- 105


The PERM figures show that there was indeed a spike in applications with January/February 2008 priority dates. April 2008 also looks higher than average.

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This is all very interesting. Based on Spec's numbers above, we have the following by quarter. The applications actually taper off in Q3 and pick back up in Q4.
Q1- 332
Q2- 304
Q3- 273
Q4- 291

I guess bottom line is that nothing in the current projections change. Hopefully the June VB/ Demand Data will provide some more useful (and positive) info. I'd love to be one of those "normal" cases - PD+5yrs. If the current projections actually realize then I'll end up as PD+6.

PS: Spec - are you an accountant or an investment banker? If not, you should consider a career change :)

Thanks Spec for the PERM and Trackitt EB2I numbers.

I do have a few intresting observations from trackitt EB2-ROW for this fiscal. The data includes primary and dependant. Approvals are approvals for the Quarter not necessarily the applications from the same Quarter. Pending is pending from the same quarter.
Quarter - Applications- Approvals - Pending- Pending %

1st Quarter - 260 - 240 -62- 24%
2nd Quarter- 111 - 241- 55 - 50%

So far we had only one month in third quarter and number of applications are just 18 and approvals are 60. Both applications and approvals made some drops this month. Going by that statistics, EB2-ROW will have less approvals this quarter and next quarter. it may end up in 210 for the current quarter and 90 for the last quarter. 210 comes from all pending applications for last two quarters + 30 for April+60 already approved .if we allocate 30 applications for each month from May to July (30*3) around 90 approvals. By that logic 300 approvals in last two quarters. I am not sure whether I am day dreaming, but any thoughts appreciated..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Thanks Spec for the PERM and Trackitt EB2I numbers.

I do have a few intresting observations from trackitt EB2-ROW for this fiscal. The data includes primary and dependant. Approvals are approvals for the Quarter not necessarily the applications from the same Quarter. Pending is pending from the same quarter.
Quarter - Applications- Approvals - Pending- Pending %

1st Quarter - 260 - 240 -62- 24%
2nd Quarter- 111 - 241- 55 - 50%

So far we had only one month in third quarter and number of applications are just 18 and approvals are 60. Both applications and approvals made some drops this month. Going by that statistics, EB2-ROW will have less approvals this quarter and next quarter. it may end up in 210 for the current quarter and 90 for the last quarter. 210 comes from all pending applications for last two quarters + 30 for April+60 already approved .if we allocate 30 applications for each month from May to July (30*3) around 90 approvals. By that logic 300 approvals in last two quarters. I am not sure whether I am day dreaming, but any thoughts appreciated..

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Matt,

We are going to get into difficulties with the different ways that people count Trackitt applications, so I will not even try to analyze your figures. I assume you do mean ROW and not ROW/M/P.

I can only say what I am seeing.

I have kept monthly approval figures for several years in a consistent manner. You can find FY2013 vs FY2012, FY2012 vs FY2011, FY2011 vs FY2010 in the Trackitt Data section.

I will say once again that I only count Primary Trackitt applicants because, in the "real world" there is a consistent 1:1 relationship to Dependents for EB2, while on Trackitt it is Many:1.

I also count both EB2 and EB2-NIW (who are significant for EB2-ROW) and make allowances for several other factors in the Trackitt Data.

For approvals to date (for all PD), I see

Q1 - 234
Q2 - 228

April - 58 at present, for a total of 520 approvals.

That compares to an average of slightly under 50 per month in each of FY2010 - FY2012.

So, to date, the EB2-ROW approvals have not yet reduced to "normal" levels, although they are now approaching that figure.

I have not kept detailed figures about pending cases each month. What I do remember is that there were about 250 pending at any one time while approvals were high earlier this FY. That number has now reduced to around 210-220 and will probably continue to fall.

Additions do seem to have slowed, but the number already pending, plus a reduced number still to come does appear to be enough to sustain fairly healthy approval numbers for the rest of FY2013, as long as USCIS continue to process them.

It will be interesting to see what the May approvals are. Only then do I feel I can make a better judgement.

Thanks Spec, the lower than expected 18 EB2- ROW additions for April confused me today morning.

I knew when I put the numbers, it was not exactly same as your calculations. Also did not mean to confuse anybody with a different calculation. I was just mentioning the latest trends of dropping numbers in EB2-ROW applications and approvals. I am in full agreement with your numbers and there is sufficent backlog of applications for this quarter, but in general the approvals for this quarter will be lower than second quarter. And if new additions continues to drop in the same fashion through out this quarter, last quarter there will be significant drops in trackitt EB2-ROW approvals.

I am also in agreement with the fact that the drop in last two quarters will only have a margnial impact in annual volume due to high approvals in the first two quarters.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Matt,

I will say once again that I only count Primary Trackitt applicants because, in the "real world" there is a consistent 1:1 relationship to Dependents for EB2, while on Trackitt it is Many:1.

I also count both EB2 and EB2-NIW (who are significant for EB2-ROW) and make allowances for several other factors in the Trackitt Data.

For approvals to date (for all PD), I see

Q1 - 234
Q2 - 228

April - 58 at present, for a total of 520 approvals.

That compares to an average of slightly under 50 per month in each of FY2010 - FY2012.

So, to date, the EB2-ROW approvals have not yet reduced to "normal" levels, although they are now approaching that figure.

I have not kept detailed figures about pending cases each month. What I do remember is that there were about 250 pending at any one time while approvals were high earlier this FY. That number has now reduced to around 210-220 and will probably continue to fall.

Additions do seem to have slowed, but the number already pending, plus a reduced number still to come does appear to be enough to sustain fairly healthy approval numbers for the rest of FY2013, as long as USCIS continue to process them.

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If USCIS decides to move the dates starting July isnt there a risk of chaos like that happened last year, leaving some 2007/ early 2008 applicants and giving away later applicants. I understand there are thousands of preadjudicated cases but still they might send RFE's to update on EVL as dates froze for so long. Moreover if they cant handle giving away more than 5 thousand per month of approvals in addition to their usual approvals for rest of categories, there is a risk they might waste visas and send it back to FB to be applied for next year. i wish we have a way of communicating to CO and finding out the exact total approvals in all categories to date and also understanding why they are still waiting to move atleast to end of december which by all accounts seems to be rational.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by indiani

If USCIS decides to move the dates starting July isnt there a risk of chaos like that happened last year, leaving some 2007/ early 2008 applicants and giving away later applicants. I understand there are thousands of preadjudicated cases but still they might send RFE's to update on EVL as dates froze for so long. Moreover if they cant handle giving away more than 5 thousand per month of approvals in addition to their usual approvals for rest of categories, there is a risk they might waste visas and send it back to FB to be applied for next year. i wish we have a way of communicating to CO and finding out the exact total approvals in all categories to date and also understanding why they are still waiting to move atleast to end of december which by all accounts seems to be rational.

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It's a tricky proposition for CO all around. He has to balance FIFO, not wasting visas and not exceeding quotas. Last year he was 1 for 3 - he didn't waste visas. I think he will err on the side of caution - wont waste visas and won't exceed quotas - even if they don't get FIFO.

http://www.immigration-information.c...589#post120589

Gurus,

Saw Ron Gotcher's response (above) to a question earlier today. Is there some information which just Ron Gotcher has access to or is this something other people are aware of? He mentioned something on similar lines after looking at May demand data. Did you guys see some red flags in last month's DD

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Niksammy

http://www.immigration-information.c...589#post120589

Gurus,

Saw Ron Gotcher's response (above) to a question earlier today. Is there some information which just Ron Gotcher has access to or is this something other people are aware of? He mentioned something on similar lines after looking at May demand data. Did you guys see some red flags in last month's DD

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Thats a heart-breaking news :( Do we know the PDs of these so-called "just discovered" EB2-I cases?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

Thats a heart-breaking news :( Do we know the PDs of these so-called "just discovered" EB2-I cases?

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Oh!! that is indeed heart-breaking, We will have some information coming out in demand data and USICS inventory.
Thank you for posting.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

Thats a heart-breaking news :( Do we know the PDs of these so-called "just discovered" EB2-I cases?

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I think this is old news from meeting CO had with lawyers way back around 24 th Oct 2012. Even I was shocked after reading that piece of info. Used google and came across the article below.

See the article at : http://www.mygcvisa.com/uscis-articl...r-FY-2013.aspx

I follow Ron's forum. First Ron kept on telling folks on his forum (till Jan 2013) that dates will move well into 2009 by April 2013 and now this article- I guess he is pretty confused himself :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Niksammy

I think this is old news from meeting CO had with lawyers way back around 24 th Oct 2012. Even I was shocked after reading that piece of info. Used google and came across the article below.

See the article at : http://www.mygcvisa.com/uscis-articl...r-FY-2013.aspx

I follow Ron's forum. First Ron kept on telling folks on his forum (till Jan 2013) that dates will move well into 2009 by April 2013 and now this article- I guess he is pretty confused himself :)

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Nikksammy, the time stamp said today morning. You infact gave me close to a shocker..I will still wait for the demand data to be out..

I am assuming these 20000 PDs are people who applied after becoming current during 2012 before dates retrogressed.

Gurus like Q/Matt/Spec could confirm if my assumption is correct.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Niksammy

I am assuming these 20000 PDs are people who applied after becoming current during 2012 before dates retrogressed.

Gurus like Q/Matt/Spec could confirm if my assumption is correct.

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The forum did say today, but the top part had a 2012 bulletin published. anyways. if the information is old, it is already in demand. The cumulative demand for EB2I in August,2012 was 22K and now it is 42K.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Nikksammy, the time stamp said today morning. You infact gave me close to a shocker..I will still wait for the demand data to be out..

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Yes, the time stamp is for today. As I mentioned in earlier in my original post, Ron gave a similar answer on 11 Apr 2013 - one day after last month's VB.

Sorry for shocking you, but I had a similar reaction :( and decided to get opinion of Gurus on this forum.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Niksammy

Yes, the time stamp is for today. As I mentioned in earlier in my original post, Ron gave a similar answer on 11 Apr 2013 - one day after last month's VB.

Sorry for shocking you, but I had a similar reaction :( and decided to get opinion of Gurus on this forum.

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Did Ron mention a new 20K number, when he gave you the reply last month?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Did Ron mention a new 20K number, when he gave you the reply last month?

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I am just a silent reader on his forum. See the link for more details http://www.immigration-information.c...n-may-bulletin

Having followed his comments on this topic for last 8 months very closely, I can assure you that his responses have been extreme - talked about movement into 2010 for EB2 I till Jan 2013 and now this talk about discovery of additional 20000 visas by USCIS which were never reported to DoS

if the new applications are indeed discovered, then EB2I is doomed for the near future. I would like to see the data getting reflected in inventory and demand to fully believe.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Niksammy

I am just a silent reader on his forum. See the link for more details http://www.immigration-information.c...n-may-bulletin

Having followed his comments on this topic for last 8 months very closely, I can assure you that his responses have been extreme - talked about movement into 2010 for EB2 I till Jan 2013 and now this talk about discovery of additional 20000 visas by USCIS which were never reported to DoS

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

if the new applications are indeed discovered, then EB2I is doomed for the near future. I would like to see the data getting reflected in inventory and demand to fully believe.

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We just need to wait till end of next week since June 2013 VB will have predictions for last quarter. We will also have DD and inventory available by end of this month.

I am confident that this demand has been already been baked into DD and it will be a non issue.

I do feel bad for creating a scare by re-posting Ron's post :(

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Niksammy

We just need to wait till end of next week since June 2013 VB will have predictions for last quarter. We will also have DD and inventory available by end of this month.

I am confident that this demand has been already been baked into DD and it will be a non issue.

I do feel bad for creating a scare by re-posting Ron's post :(

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Guys I think we should ignore this. Ron has said things in the past that have been completely wrong. If before may dd there were 20000 unreported numbers why are they not added to may dd. I am confident dates Will move to at least 2007.

Ron is vague and rather somewhat misleading and here is why,
1. 20K must be the difference between 42-22 which got added when dates moved quickly and 42K in DD is already known, if he meant additional 20K in addition to 42K then during which period are these 20K?
2.when he meant short term, does it mean this entire fiscal yr or june /july?
3.no movement- means not even a month and we all know is close to impossible as even with no spillover from any category with the current DD it might move atleast a month (I am just trying to make an arguement why Ron's statement is misleading ) but in fact I believe it might move as many projected and in fact CO projected to early to mid 2008.
I have been following PD's for 6 yrs and this year every single bulletin and all the data and analysis put forth by various members and these are my conclusions and anyone can use my analysis of this news with some degree of skeptisism or critique but I like to see where and to what degree I am wrong.
what fascinates me however is on a thread on trackitt, looks like 2 more lawyers are saying no movement this fiscal, either they are wrong or something very very unusual happened which all of us might be shocked when we know about it. I just hope the lawyers are plain worng and misinformed

Strange that Q, Spec, Viz.. are silent on this. Getting scared.. :(

Indiani,

I concur with most of the observations you made. There is a thread on trackitt.com stating that this information of un-reported 20000 cases was available to lawyers way back on 7 March 2013.

Isnt it surprising that DD for May 2013 was updated one day after it was published to fix EB3 ROW numbers but these un-reported cases for EB2 I have not been updated till now?

I will be shocked if this information about 20000 EB2 cases is correct. I will like to think otherwise till we see numbers to back these claims in DD next week.

Regarding immigration lawyers, the less I comment, the better it would be

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Niksammy

Indiani,

I concur with most of the observations you made. There is a thread on trackitt.com stating that this information of un-reported 20000 cases was available to lawyers way back on 7 March 2013.

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Will you please provide the link to the trackitt thread you are mentioning?

There are two threads, one started in March and another some two hours ago.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...ulletin/page/1
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Niksammy

Indiani,

I concur with most of the observations you made. There is a thread on trackitt.com stating that this information of un-reported 20000 cases was available to lawyers way back on 7 March 2013.

Isnt it surprising that DD for May 2013 was updated one day after it was published to fix EB3 ROW numbers but these un-reported cases for EB2 I have not been updated till now?

I will be shocked if this information about 20000 EB2 cases is correct. I will like to think otherwise till we see numbers to back these claims in DD next week.

Regarding immigration lawyers, the less I comment, the better it would be

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20K ron was mentioning is already added, after spending so much time during this process, I can tell you that as far as movements are concerned there aren't any lawyers who sit and crunch and analyse numbers, they just report any info from AILA meeting and rest is speculation.
I would urge anyone who quoates their attorneys or any other lawyer should give specifics and people can decide how much attention they need to pay to the news or predictions.

May DD didn't have a spike and thousands and thousands of cases added like Ron mentions.

"The demand data chart for May showed a significant spike in EB2 India cases at the USCIS."
"With this new data - the thousands and thousands of cases the USCIS "just suddenly found" - I doubt that there will be much movement the balance of this fiscal year."

http://www.immigration-information.c...n-may-bulletin

Hopefully this is just Ron's prediction and his predictions have been extreme. usually optimistic.

I saw this in the old Murthy Nov 2012 predictions for FY 2013.
"Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2): India

The DOS has received more than 20,000 EB2 India cases from USCIS that are awaiting issuance of visa numbers. Under the current system, once the USCIS reviews a case and finds it appropriate for approval, the USCIS makes an automated request to the DOS for a visa number. If no number is available, the request is held by the DOS, awaiting action once a visa number for the particular case and priority date becomes available. These cases are referred to as preadjudicated."

http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/pri...ions-for-fy13/

I wonder if this 20,000 number is the same one being referred here

Is this 20,000 number the same as one mentioned in murthy website in Nov 2012?

"The DOS has received more than 20,000 EB2 India cases from USCIS that are awaiting issuance of visa numbers. Under the current system, once the USCIS reviews a case and finds it appropriate for approval, the USCIS makes an automated request to the DOS for a visa number. If no number is available, the request is held by the DOS, awaiting action once a visa number for the particular case and priority date becomes available. These cases are referred to as preadjudicated."

http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/pri...ions-for-fy13/

I hope next time when someone wants to spread any "NEWS" from Ron , its better to ask him to clarify and explain in detail before it spreads like wildfire to other forums.

I will await the june bulletin predictions for last quarter, if any released. if CO mentions No movement to movement of just couple of years , then that might be a reason to predict something very bleak otherwise still i would consider the projections by spec to bee the closest to reality.

Q and Spec use facts and some well documented assumptions based on historic trends. Hearsay is never part of the equation. Lets just wait a few more days to see if any of this shows up in the demand data.

From my perspective, "finding" an additional 20k apps seems like a stretch as it defeats historical trends. I'm not saying its impossible but it doesn't pass my "sniff test".

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Q and Spec use facts and some well documented assumptions based on historic trends. Hearsay is never part of the equation. Lets just wait a few more days to see if any of this shows up in the demand data.

From my perspective, "finding" an additional 20k apps seems like a stretch as it defeats historical trends. I'm not saying its impossible but it doesn't pass my "sniff test".

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I am only going to make this single comment.

It does not pass my "sniff test" either for a number of reasons.

a) It is a completely unsubstantiated rumour. Ron Gotcher, who has a less than stellar track record of understanding in this area (but who has been a great source of information from AILA), has "seen" a huge increase in demand in the May DD that simply does not exist as far as I can see. He has provided no back up for this assertion. gc_soon has already mentioned this and it was a statement I didn't understand when Ron made it originally.

b) The other Trackitt user has previously said his attorneys are also saying this and that dates would retrogress earlier in the year. That did not happen.

c) An extra 20k would bring the number of EB2-I cases, as a result of last year's movement to to May 2010, to over 60k. That is an extremely high level based on the underlying PERM numbers and would require a very high Overall Ratio to achieve.

There are scenarios with high EB1, EB2-WW and high porting usage that could still lead to a very bad year and little movement. At the moment, that does not seem very likely, but suddenly finding 20k extra cases is in a different league of "unlikeliness" IMHO.

Finally, let's not shoot the messenger. We are all adult enough to make our own mind up about any information that might be posted. If people are dissuaded from posting what they find, we run the risk of missing some real nuggets of information.

The Demand Data should be out next week and (in particular) the next USCIS Inventory should be published before the end of the month. Let's see what they have to say.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I am only going to make this single comment.

It does not pass my "sniff test" either for a number of reasons.

a) It is a completely unsubstantiated rumour. Ron Gotcher, who has a less than stellar track record of understanding in this area (but who has been a great source of information from AILA), has "seen" a huge increase in demand in the May DD that simply does not exist as far as I can see. He has provided no back up for this assertion. gc_soon has already mentioned this and it was a statement I didn't understand when Ron made it originally.

b) The other Trackitt user has previously said his attorneys are also saying this and that dates would retrogress earlier in the year. That did not happen.

c) An extra 20k would bring the number of EB2-I cases, as a result of last year's movement to to May 2010, to over 60k. That is an extremely high level based on the underlying PERM numbers and would require a very high Overall Ratio to achieve.

There are scenarios with high EB1, EB2-WW and high porting usage that could still lead to a very bad year and little movement. At the moment, that does not seem very likely, but suddenly finding 20k extra cases is in a different league of "unlikeliness" IMHO.

Finally, let's not shoot the messenger. We are all adult enough to make our own mind up about any information that might be posted. If people are dissuaded from posting what they find, we run the risk of missing some real nuggets of information.

The Demand Data should be out next week and (in particular) the next USCIS Inventory should be published before the end of the month. Let's see what they have to say.

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Spec,

About the scenarios where EB2WW will basically eat up EB1 spillover giving nothing to India. I was looking at FY 2008. That year after the 2007 fiasco EB 2 WW basically consumed 48000 visas. I was looking which countries contributed to this and found basically S. Korea and ofcourse P and M. Do you know why that happened that year and do you see 48000 visas getting approved for EB2 again like that year? 2008- EB2 I got 14000 but that was cause of EB5 and EB1 which this year have high demand. I hope you can provide some hope

Quick question, Say a person applied I-485 under EB3 category and EAD kicked off for this 485. Later that person applied for PERM after moving to second company, now what would be the CLASS_OF_ADMISSION in PERM report for this person's position.

I see Parloee as CLASS_OF_ADMISSION in PERM report and more number of Indians has applied under this category. Trying to understand the analogy between Parloee and EB2 Upgrades.

PERM number do not support 20K extra numbers "suddenly found" between July 2007 to April 2010. (34 months)

19,726 GC given in FY2012 + 40000 pending inventory in demand data(34 months). So 60 K is already counted and most of approvals are 2007 and 2008.

If we assume PERM data ratio 4:1 for EB2I:EB3I per year. (very high assumption for 2007, 08, 09 and 2010)
60 K is total number in ball park range and with above ratio 48 K numbers can be EB2I certified PERM

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations

Another 12K may be porting in past 2 years counted/preadjudicated.

So Math do not support these 20K number "suddenly found". (up to 5K may be possible )
Murthy's mention of 20K is different from Ron Gotcher and does not say that it was not counted.

My 2 cents.

Guys

Sorry for being out of pocket for quite some time. I read this over the weekend and now I got the time to pen down some thoughts. Here are my thoughts on the 20K cases rumour.

First - lawyers are not at all conversant with numbers and simulations that we do.
Two - lawyers have an incentive to create fear
Three - I am fairly certain that a lot of lawyers and other people read this forum and then reproduce the info in different forms on other forums.

Bottomline - I have not seen or heard anything that substantiates 20K rumour. So relax. Another strong reason I would definitely not believe 20K number is because USCIS has really improved a lot under Mr. Khatri in terms of their operations as well as responsiveness. In the old days it would be possible that there are 20K cases lying around somewhere. But not today.

So please put a stop on this discussion and lets not scare people. Agree w Spec that whoever posted it first - did so in good faith - so lets not beat the guy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Guys

Sorry for being out of pocket for quite some time. I read this over the weekend and now I got the time to pen down some thoughts. Here are my thoughts on the 20K cases rumour.

First - lawyers are not at all conversant with numbers and simulations that we do.
Two - lawyers have an incentive to create fear
Three - I am fairly certain that a lot of lawyers and other people read this forum and then reproduce the info in different forms on other forums.

Bottomline - I have not seen or heard anything that substantiates 20K rumour. So relax. Another strong reason I would definitely not believe 20K number is because USCIS has really improved a lot under Mr. Khatri in terms of their operations as well as responsiveness. In the old days it would be possible that there are 20K cases lying around somewhere. But not today.

So please put a stop on this discussion and lets not scare people. Agree w Spec that whoever posted it first - did so in good faith - so lets not beat the guy.

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No wonder, folks on this forum like you, Q.. You have your GC in hand and yet you take the time and effort to answer questions and provide insight to folks waiting in the queue.. And that too at a unlikely hour of 4:30 AM on a Sunday night..

You rock dude!!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Guys

Sorry for being out of pocket for quite some time. I read this over the weekend and now I got the time to pen down some thoughts. Here are my thoughts on the 20K cases rumour.

First - lawyers are not at all conversant with numbers and simulations that we do.
Two - lawyers have an incentive to create fear
Three - I am fairly certain that a lot of lawyers and other people read this forum and then reproduce the info in different forms on other forums.

Bottomline - I have not seen or heard anything that substantiates 20K rumour. So relax. Another strong reason I would definitely not believe 20K number is because USCIS has really improved a lot under Mr. Khatri in terms of their operations as well as responsiveness. In the old days it would be possible that there are 20K cases lying around somewhere. But not today.

So please put a stop on this discussion and lets not scare people. Agree w Spec that whoever posted it first - did so in good faith - so lets not beat the guy.

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I agree with Q's comments above. In these days USCIS and DOS are indeed very cautious about these numbers. I hope this month DD and VB will have some information on future movement. Hang in there... I see light at the end of the tunnel, But not sure I can reach end of the tunnel before this fiscal year. Let's hope for the best, this has been the practice for 5 years now.

PERM Second Quarter numbers were released.

Report has both Good Numbers and Bad Numbers

Good Numbers,
for last two quarters in 2013

Only 7465 certified are Non-Indians and Non-Chinese. Out of these 7465, based on salary and job level 3911 falls under EB2 Category. Multiply by 3 close to 12k, which is the number we are expecting per month for ROW under EB2 category.

Bad Numbers:-
Out of total 21205 certified/certified-expired, 12404 certified/certified-expired cases belong to Indians. Which is greater 58%.
Out the 12404 Indian certified/certified-expired cases, based on job level and salary more than 80% of them fall under EB2 Category.

If a EB3 applicant has applied for 485, and trying to upgrade to EB2 and if this person CLASS_OF_ADMISSION is Parloee, then 388 Indian applicants in last two quarters got upgraded. 16 Non Indians got upgraded. (I'm assuming that if the applicant is on EAD and applied for second GC, then applicant CLASS_OF_ADMISSION is Parloee; I could be wrong)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

PERM Second Quarter numbers were released.

Report has both Good Numbers and Bad Numbers

Good Numbers,
for last two quarters in 2013

Only 7465 certified are Non-Indians and Non-Chinese. Out of these 7465, based on salary and job level 3911 falls under EB2 Category. Multiply by 3 close to 12k, which is the number we are expecting per month for ROW under EB2 category.

Bad Numbers:-
Out of total 21205 certified/certified-expired, 12404 certified/certified-expired cases belong to Indians. Which is greater 58%.
Out the 12404 Indian certified/certified-expired cases, based on job level and salary more than 80% of them fall under EB2 Category.

If a EB3 applicant has applied for 485, and trying to upgrade to EB2 and if this person CLASS_OF_ADMISSION is Parloee, then 388 Indian applicants in last two quarters got upgraded. 16 Non Indians got upgraded. (I'm assuming that if the applicant is on EAD and applied for second GC, then applicant CLASS_OF_ADMISSION is Parloee; I could be wrong)

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how does the 7465 number compare with similar quarter last year. do you know?

June DD is out- I dont see any trace of the the extra 20000 visas Ron was talking about. so we can put that to bed