EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

It looks like that we will still have to show "compelling reasons" to get EAD for limited period and that granting of EAD even on those compelling reasons would be solely at the discretion of DHS. Now we will have to wait to see what does "compelling reasons" mean and what is included in this.

Also, for EAD extensions, the gap between PD and VB cut-off date should be less than 1 year.

So lets assume that if I somehow qualify to get EAD showing "compelling reasons" and end up getting and EAD for 1 or 2 years, I wouldn't be able to get the extension at the end of those 1 or 2 years unless my PD and VB cut-off date is less than 1 year apart, which in short means that I have to still maintain my H1B status regardless of being on EAD or not.

I don't know how many people would benefit ultimately at the end of this rule making. It seems like they are doing something just for the sake of doing it and in the end only couple thousands may qualify at the most.

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Where does it say this? Thx

Check this link http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRA...01511-1615-011

"EAD for a limited period if there are compelling circumstances that, in the discretionary determination of DHS, justify the consideration of such employment authorization"

Not surprised if the limited period is for few seconds.

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Originally Posted by Raj0687

Check this link http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRA...01511-1615-011

"EAD for a limited period if there are compelling circumstances that, in the discretionary determination of DHS, justify the consideration of such employment authorization"

Not surprised if the limited period is for few seconds.

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Maybe the word 'limited' is just meant to indicate that it's till we get a GC? Of course that's the most optimistic reading...I guess we'll see. The same or similar job stuff is bullshit too...

Merry Christmas to all.

I see this as a positive news even though there are some conditions attached to it.

More details are available in this document:
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/Dow...ectID=60384600

"USCIS is projecting that approximately 155,067 new respondents will submit this type of request as a result of this rulemaking."

That's a huge number which includes the spouse and children for a primary I-140 approved applicant and that turns out to be an approximation of 75k to 100k primary I-140 approved applicants who will get benefited from this rule making.

As of today we don't know what are those compelling reasons but USCIS already estimated that there are around 155k people in those compelling circumstances currently who will get eligibility to file for I-140 EAD. We need to wait for another 4 to 6 months to see this rule gets approved and active.
All in all I see this as a great start for a new year 2016 with lots of hopes at least for those 155K beneficiaries. The remaining people can only hope their turn comes in subsequent years based on their PD and VB movement.

Gurus - need your opinion here. My PD is July 29, 2011. Is there any chance I would be able to apply for I-485 in 2016?

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Originally Posted by nikjoshi

Gurus - need your opinion here. My PD is July 29, 2011. Is there any chance I would be able to apply for I-485 in 2016?

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Yes, Only if EAD for I-140 Regulation gets approved!

A little more here along with links to the proposed forms:

http://www.immigration-law.com/
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRA...01511-1615-006

Thanks for posting. Have few questions related to J-Form but not sure if we have clarity at this point. Gurus please share your views
1. Will it impact those who used 485 Ead and changed the job?

2. Should USCIS approve the J form before we take up the new job? I seriously hope that is not the case, if so EAD will then be like H1B. Most employers will not wait that long even if they do a premium processing

Hi, I've been a silent observer on this thread for over a year now and learnt quite a bit on the GC process. Thank you for all the contributors and educators.
I need some of your expert thoughts on my situation. I am in EB2 and my PD is Oct 2008. I was one of those that got eligibility to file for 485 / 765 / 131 in October 2015 due to the Date for Filing process. I missed the earlier boats to file due to various reasons.My application receipt date for all 3 applications is October 5th 2015. Unfortunately, I got let-go-off in mid November by the sponsoring company. I am back on H1 with another company. The immigration department for the old company told me that they do not withdraw I-140s unless there is a specific request from the manager and they are required to withdraw the H1Bs as required by law upon termination. My questions are:

Can I still continue my 485 and file for AC-21 after 180 days since the I-140 will not be withdrawn?
Do I have to re-start my GC process all over again?

My I-140 was approved in Dec 2014. I have not approached any immigration attorneys yet as I have been through a lot trying to get back on track. I am one of those fools who made a mistake of buying a home in anticipation of getting a GC soon. :-( I still have a very heavy heart while writing this and feel very bad for my wrong decision.

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Originally Posted by mechanical13

All the forum discussions regarding forecasts seem to have gotten cold for some reason, which is little surprising.

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I think that partly because it has limited accuracy, partly because the forum offers a paid forecasting tool, and those involved with it have stopped doing "free" forecasts, and partly some of those who did it actively, have gotten their GCs and have moved on.

Mostly because there is nothing to do. Basic data is simple and clear and known to everybody. Beyond that there is nothing to base any forecasts on except just raw guessing. Plus the current situation is so depressing with so many headwinds that its not a pleasant thing to basically keep saying that we might not cross the previous high water mark :-(

If there were chances of EB2I getting 16k-20k visas like in many years past then you would have seen a lot more activity.

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Originally Posted by 4WatItsWorth

I think that partly because it has limited accuracy, partly because the forum offers a paid forecasting tool, and those involved with it have stopped doing "free" forecasts, and partly some of those who did it actively, have gotten their GCs and have moved on.

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Hey guys happy Sunday!!!. I am a novice at crunching the numbers and I was doing some of my own number crunching. I compared the EB2 numbers for ROW starting Oct 2014 to July 2015 and they have hardly changed.

EB2 ROW is current so how come EB2 ROW cases haven't cleared quicker? They seem to be hanging around the same number. One explanation is they are clearing quickly but are also getting filled to the same number but I dont think growth rate for EB2 ROW is that high. Am I missing something?

EB2 ROW isn't current: where do you see that? Thanks.

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Originally Posted by nagendra75

Hi, I've been a silent observer on this thread for over a year now and learnt quite a bit on the GC process. Thank you for all the contributors and educators.
I need some of your expert thoughts on my situation. I am in EB2 and my PD is Oct 2008. I was one of those that got eligibility to file for 485 / 765 / 131 in October 2015 due to the Date for Filing process. I missed the earlier boats to file due to various reasons.My application receipt date for all 3 applications is October 5th 2015. Unfortunately, I got let-go-off in mid November by the sponsoring company. I am back on H1 with another company. The immigration department for the old company told me that they do not withdraw I-140s unless there is a specific request from the manager and they are required to withdraw the H1Bs as required by law upon termination. My questions are:

Can I still continue my 485 and file for AC-21 after 180 days since the I-140 will not be withdrawn?
Do I have to re-start my GC process all over again?

My I-140 was approved in Dec 2014. I have not approached any immigration attorneys yet as I have been through a lot trying to get back on track. I am one of those fools who made a mistake of buying a home in anticipation of getting a GC soon. :-( I still have a very heavy heart while writing this and feel very bad for my wrong decision.

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Unfortunately, you would need to start the GC process all over again with the new company and continue to be on H1 until you've crossed the I-140 stage with the new company. Good news is that you can retain your PD (esp considering that your previous company is not going to withdraw it).

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Mostly because there is nothing to do. Basic data is simple and clear and known to everybody. Beyond that there is nothing to base any forecasts on except just raw guessing. Plus the current situation is so depressing with so many headwinds that its not a pleasant thing to basically keep saying that we might not cross the previous high water mark :-(

If there were chances of EB2I getting 16k-20k visas like in many years past then you would have seen a lot more activity.

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What about EB3-India? I thought this category was going to get the benefit of spillovers from RoW. too early to predict and hence the silence?

I wont ask the gurus on this forum about when my PD will become current. However for ppl having PD's in the second half of 2010 (June to Dec) are these folks looking at another 5 years to even file for AOS? So sometime around 2020 time frame?

It seems to me that with the economy improving the spills into EB2 would only reduce. Or do you think the spike in EB1 and EB2 WW is temporary phenomena?

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Originally Posted by knighthood83

It seems to me that with the economy improving the spills into EB2 would only reduce. Or do you think the spike in EB1 and EB2 WW is temporary phenomena?

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Unfortunately that has already happened. Lack of spillovers are a direct result of improved economy.
EB1 is a permanent phenomenon IMHO - because that is a proven way to quickly obtain GC for management in all kinds of companies. Whereas EB2ROW is mixed bag of good economy AND disillusioned EB3ROW portings. But as you can see EB3ROW itself is now becoming currrent so expect reduced EB2ROW in times ahead. Will those reductions be offset by increases due to good economy? Perhaps not entirely.

However EB2/3-India are in a pickle for a very long time short of any immigration fix. And the chances of any fix are the same as they always have been - fundamentally things remain unchanged.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Unfortunately that has already happened. Lack of spillovers are a direct result of improved economy.
EB1 is a permanent phenomenon IMHO - because that is a proven way to quickly obtain GC for management in all kinds of companies. Whereas EB2ROW is mixed bag of good economy AND disillusioned EB3ROW portings. But as you can see EB3ROW itself is now becoming currrent so expect reduced EB2ROW in times ahead. Will those reductions be offset by increases due to good economy? Perhaps not entirely.

However EB2/3-India are in a pickle for a very long time short of any immigration fix. And the chances of any fix are the same as they always have been - fundamentally things remain unchanged.

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I am hearing that EB2-I final action date may not even cross middle of Calendar Year 2009. Is that your feeling too that it is this bad?

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Originally Posted by 4WatItsWorth

I am hearing that EB2-I final action date may not even cross middle of Calendar Year 2009. Is that your feeling too that it is this bad?

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Yes. I think so based on current indications.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Unfortunately that has already happened. Lack of spillovers are a direct result of improved economy.
EB1 is a permanent phenomenon IMHO - because that is a proven way to quickly obtain GC for management in all kinds of companies. Whereas EB2ROW is mixed bag of good economy AND disillusioned EB3ROW portings. But as you can see EB3ROW itself is now becoming currrent so expect reduced EB2ROW in times ahead. Will those reductions be offset by increases due to good economy? Perhaps not entirely.

However EB2/3-India are in a pickle for a very long time short of any immigration fix. And the chances of any fix are the same as they always have been - fundamentally things remain unchanged.

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Q, isn't EB3 India supposed to gallop as all things are in its favor? I know I am being selfish and looking for 2005-06 filings, long term trend is ofcourse miserable for all Eb2-3 India applicants

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Originally Posted by anuprab

Q, isn't EB3 India supposed to gallop as all things are in its favor? I know I am being selfish and looking for 2005-06 filings, long term trend is ofcourse miserable for all Eb2-3 India applicants

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It will be a good year for EB3-I but the leap in months / years will come on the back of already thinned out backlog for EB3. In other words - the spillover will not be as huge as we would like (e.g. 20K that EB2I used to enjoy 5 years back!). However even a slight spillover can cause good movement in EB3I because 2004-2007 EB3I has been thinned out due to portings.

Hope this helps!

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

It will be a good year for EB3-I but the leap in months / years will come on the back of already thinned out backlog for EB3. In other words - the spillover will not be as huge as we would like (e.g. 20K that EB2I used to enjoy 5 years back!). However even a slight spillover can cause good movement in EB3I because 2004-2007 EB3I has been thinned out due to portings.

Hope this helps!

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thanks so if I understand you correctly, thinned out EB3I and spillover should help EB3I this year. when do you think will the movement in EB3I start ?

Thank you sean231! I'll be talking to an attorney as well.

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Originally Posted by nagendra75

Hi, I've been a silent observer on this thread for over a year now and learnt quite a bit on the GC process. Thank you for all the contributors and educators.
I need some of your expert thoughts on my situation. I am in EB2 and my PD is Oct 2008. I was one of those that got eligibility to file for 485 / 765 / 131 in October 2015 due to the Date for Filing process. I missed the earlier boats to file due to various reasons.My application receipt date for all 3 applications is October 5th 2015. Unfortunately, I got let-go-off in mid November by the sponsoring company. I am back on H1 with another company. The immigration department for the old company told me that they do not withdraw I-140s unless there is a specific request from the manager and they are required to withdraw the H1Bs as required by law upon termination. My questions are:

Can I still continue my 485 and file for AC-21 after 180 days since the I-140 will not be withdrawn?
Do I have to re-start my GC process all over again?

My I-140 was approved in Dec 2014. I have not approached any immigration attorneys yet as I have been through a lot trying to get back on track. I am one of those fools who made a mistake of buying a home in anticipation of getting a GC soon. :-( I still have a very heavy heart while writing this and feel very bad for my wrong decision.

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If your I-140 is not withdrawn within 180 days, then you can continue to your existing I-485 and file for AC21 (as long as you satisfy the AC21 requirements). There is no need to restart your GC process all over again.
Even if I-140 is withdrawn within 180 days, it may be possible to continue your I-485 if USCIS does not send a NOIR. This would be risky though and future issues may not be ruled out.

My PD is July 2009 and yet to file I-485. Does anyone of you think I have a chance of filing and getting approved in CY 2016?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Unfortunately that has already happened. Lack of spillovers are a direct result of improved economy.
EB1 is a permanent phenomenon IMHO - because that is a proven way to quickly obtain GC for management in all kinds of companies. Whereas EB2ROW is mixed bag of good economy AND disillusioned EB3ROW portings. But as you can see EB3ROW itself is now becoming currrent so expect reduced EB2ROW in times ahead. Will those reductions be offset by increases due to good economy? Perhaps not entirely.

However EB2/3-India are in a pickle for a very long time short of any immigration fix. And the chances of any fix are the same as they always have been - fundamentally things remain unchanged.

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With PERM mordernization they plan to bring in premium processing that too will slow things substantially since demand might start showing up early.

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Originally Posted by knighthood83

With PERM mordernization they plan to bring in premium processing that too will slow things substantially since demand might start showing up early.

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Yeah but when the wait time is 9 years long - this factor is a drop in the bucket.

p.s. - Sorry I just realized that the non-India applications would only increase thereby putting stress on already sparsely available spillover visas. Yes you are correct.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Yeah but when the wait time is 9 years long - this factor is a drop in the bucket.

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You mean for EB2 India the wait times are PD+9?

Also is that for getting a GC or for having the chance to file for AOS?

Thanks

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Originally Posted by knighthood83

You mean for EB2 India the wait times are PD+9?

Also is that for getting a GC or for having the chance to file for AOS?

Thanks

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Probably to just get EAD/AP at this messed up rate.

The US government condemns the arab states for human rights violations, but in many ways, this country is becoming a lot like the Arab state - "if you are from India, you can work however long you want here and contribute to the economy, but can never become a citizen". I think if someone were to file under EB2I now, the wait times are likely 20 years to get GC.

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Originally Posted by knighthood83

You mean for EB2 India the wait times are PD+9?

Also is that for getting a GC or for having the chance to file for AOS?

Thanks

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I was speaking vaguely. If you look at the Visa Bulletin, EB2I folks from 2008 are still waiting. This is 2016. That's 8 years already and we don't even know if all 2008 folks will be cleared this year.

Thank you so much Tenyearsgone. The attorney I consulted too opined the same. I hope it is not withdrawn. Thank you again! Best..

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Originally Posted by knighthood83

You mean for EB2 India the wait times are PD+9?

Also is that for getting a GC or for having the chance to file for AOS?

Thanks

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It may not quite be that yet, but it's not far away and may well accelerate beyond that for later PDs.

From the PERM data, CY2009 PD cases represent the low point in numbers and have increased substantially since then.

Indian PERM Certification by calculated PD:

2008 - 23.7k
2009 - 16.7k
2010 - 22.3k
2011 - 30.0k
2012 - 36.7k
2013 - 36.0k
2014 - 40.0k

However you spin those numbers to derive EB2-I I-485 applications, it's a substantial increase over time and the numbers of I-485 beyond 01MAY10 are far more than we have seen to date. The period that became current for 2010 (Jan-Apr) only appears to cover 25% of the total number for 2010. Numbers rise substantially from Aug 2010.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

It may not quite be that yet, but it's not far away and may well accelerate beyond that for later PDs.

From the PERM data, CY2009 PD cases represent the low point in numbers and have increased substantially since then.

Indian PERM Certification by calculated PD:

2008 - 23.7k
2009 - 16.7k
2010 - 22.3k
2011 - 30.0k
2012 - 36.7k
2013 - 36.0k
2014 - 40.0k

However you spin those numbers to derive EB2-I I-485 applications, it's a substantial increase over time and the numbers of I-485 beyond 01MAY10 are far more than we have seen to date. The period that became current for 2010 (Jan-Apr) only appears to cover 25% of the total number for 2010. Numbers rise substantially from Aug 2010.

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What is the % breakdown of EB2ROW vs. EB3ROW? Over years, EB3ROW has been substantially higher than EB2ROW. But has this changed over the last few years? I also noticed an increase in PERM filings for South Korea - 5715 from 1st Jan to 29th Dec 2015. There is no doubt that there has been a substantial increase in PERM filings for India over the years since 2010. With the H1B lottery, the Indian body shops are gaming the system and taking away most of the H1Bs. Does this also mean there has been a decrease in ROW filings overall? Trying to find some positives here. ROW PERM filings were around 28k last year while India was close to 44k.

Finally, EB3ROW has 11k pending inventory and looking at PERM, I did not see any high demand for them over the last year. Considering they have 2400 visas per month per EB2/3 categories, their demand does not seem close to fulfill the monthly quota. EB2ROW has an 18k pending inventory. Are we expecting the EB3ROW pending inventory to get even lower? Looking at the data, I want to say yes but wanted to know what others think. The last time the pending EB3ROW inventory went to 10k was in Oct 2014 and CO went on to advance the dates by 1.5 years. There is no more place for EB3ROW date advancements other than making it an official "C". Do we think he will do it after the April inventory and that's when he will start applying SO?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

It may not quite be that yet, but it's not far away and may well accelerate beyond that for later PDs.

From the PERM data, CY2009 PD cases represent the low point in numbers and have increased substantially since then.

Indian PERM Certification by calculated PD:

2008 - 23.7k
2009 - 16.7k
2010 - 22.3k
2011 - 30.0k
2012 - 36.7k
2013 - 36.0k
2014 - 40.0k

However you spin those numbers to derive EB2-I I-485 applications, it's a substantial increase over time and the numbers of I-485 beyond 01MAY10 are far more than we have seen to date. The period that became current for 2010 (Jan-Apr) only appears to cover 25% of the total number for 2010. Numbers rise substantially from Aug 2010.

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My priority date is Nov2010. What are the chances of becoming current can it be this year 2016 or next year 2017?

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

What is the % breakdown of EB2ROW vs. EB3ROW? Over years, EB3ROW has been substantially higher than EB2ROW. But has this changed over the last few years? I also noticed an increase in PERM filings for South Korea - 5715 from 1st Jan to 29th Dec 2015. There is no doubt that there has been a substantial increase in PERM filings for India over the years since 2010. With the H1B lottery, the Indian body shops are gaming the system and taking away most of the H1Bs. Does this also mean there has been a decrease in ROW filings overall? Trying to find some positives here. ROW PERM filings were around 28k last year while India was close to 44k.

Finally, EB3ROW has 11k pending inventory and looking at PERM, I did not see any high demand for them over the last year. Considering they have 2400 visas per month per EB2/3 categories, their demand does not seem close to fulfill the monthly quota. EB2ROW has an 18k pending inventory. Are we expecting the EB3ROW pending inventory to get even lower? Looking at the data, I want to say yes but wanted to know what others think. The last time the pending EB3ROW inventory went to 10k was in Oct 2014 and CO went on to advance the dates by 1.5 years. There is no more place for EB3ROW date advancements other than making it an official "C". Do we think he will do it after the April inventory and that's when he will start applying SO?

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Her's the same data for ROW (excludes M&P).

2008 - 30.1k
2009 - 19.1k
2010 - 15.8k
2011 - 17.3k
2012 - 20.0k
2013 - 19.3k
2014 - 21.9k

The low point was 2010. As you said, this might be partly caused by the fact there has been an H1B lottery almost every year since the FY2008 cap season.

I'm always hesitant to specify the relative EB2/EB3 ratios. When I last did a "quick and dirty" analysis for FY2015 data based on the minimum education/experience requirements of the certified PERM, it looked like this:

-------------- EB2 ---- EB3
China ------- 70.1% -- 29.9%
India ------- 74.7% -- 25.3%
Mexico ------ 38.2% -- 61.8%
Philippines - 40.7% -- 59.3%
ROW --------- 58.0% -- 42.0%

All --------- 68.0% -- 32.0%

At the end of Q3 FY2015, the ROW split was 65:35 so it appears there is an increase in EB3 PERM certifications. As you pointed out, many of these are from South Korea and it appears many of those are in the Other Workers category.

Do we have a view/report of how many visas were issued per year / per country / per category similar to the pending inventory? Is so can some one post the link?

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Originally Posted by Umesh1209

Do we have a view/report of how many visas were issued per year / per country / per category similar to the pending inventory? Is so can some one post the link?

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Umesh1209,

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...tatistics.html

Table V for each FY has the data you are looking for.

The data for FY2015 hasn't been published yet. Keep looking, it will be in the fairly near future.

Some of the data is already compiled here into China, India, Mexico, Philippines and ROW

Thanks a lot Spec !

I was wondering what are the effects of economic slowdown on PERM filings and the overall GC line. The specific questions are,

1. Do you see any slowdown in hiring in your workplace especially for people on visas
2. Has the immigration process slowed down

I am eager to know what is happening in different industries.

I work in the oil and gas and its been a pretty nasty year for us and no end in sight.

Iatiam

Good to see Spec back in action with lots of numbers and analysis.