EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Teddy gave earlier an argument about how he feels until Nov 1st 2007, there are 2.5 k preadjudicated, 4k PWMB, and 10k new applications and also a higher density of 3k per month.

Considering the higher density 3k for December 2007 and November 2007 also:
16.5k + 6k = 22.5k for 2007 ending.

Now for Jan and Feb 2008, lets revert back to Specs estimate, and it comes to 4,988 which is like 5k, i.e. 2.5k a month, so I will just consider 2.5k a month density for simplicity sake. Hence until 1st March 2008, 22.5k + 5k = 27.5k.

Now, purely looking at previous years' trend(s), I think he should keep 30k + some buffer. If we say buffer is two months worth, and consider 2.5k average per month for 2008, we get to 3 more months for 27.5k + 7.5k = 35k, and date comes to 1st June 2008, and that is pretty darn close to what the NVC fee bills were sent for.

I personally feel CO should just go by past trend at this point, and disregard noise if any raised by USCIS about backlogs, porting and other variables, as the future so far is not in anyone's hands, just yesterday Teddy showed how at least just October trackitt trend is surprisingly pointed to high SOFAD, inspite of backlog and inventory negatives. I believe that CO's predictions are in line with these thoughts. So far so good.

---

nishant,
In your calculation shouldn't we also consider the # of visas that got approval in Oct'11. For example, if X I485 got approved in Oct, then the expected remaining SOFAD available for the year is 30K - X and we add some buffer on top of this. So what CO might be aiming for is (30K - X) + buffer. Now, we don't know what X is but ~6K (PDs from mid-April'07 to mid-June'07) got current during Oct and from trackitt and mittbs data it seems that a good portion on this 6K cases have been approved in Oct. Am I missing anything here?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pch053

nishant,
In your calculation shouldn't we also consider the # of visas that got approval in Oct'11. For example, if X I485 got approved in Oct, then the expected remaining SOFAD available for the year is 30K - X and we add some buffer on top of this. So what CO might be aiming for is (30K - X) + buffer. Now, we don't know what X is but ~6K (PDs from mid-April'07 to mid-June'07) got current during Oct and from trackitt and mittbs data it seems that a good portion on this 6K cases have been approved in Oct. Am I missing anything here?

---

Very good point pch053, it means he is in fact looking for 24k + buffer, beginning from July 15th 2007 onwards. So in fact 1st March 2008 is the farthest destination point now instead of 1st June 2008. Does that sound correct now pch? so in fact 1st march 2008 will get him 27.5k applications (from 15th july 2007 to 1st March 2008) in addition to the 6k he already dealt with.

We know that the 6k was not from FY 2011 cap as those dates were not current during the September of 2011. Hence you are correct in saying 6k SOFAD already done with.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by cbpds1

hey i was just asking to know if something changed in the past few days, thats all. Please continue to write abt it as u have been very helpful like the other gurus !!

---

no no, not at all offended, I really mean it, I mean if CO himself has given a prediction, there is really very less purpose of any of giving any prediction. He is the big guy!

This sounds correct to me; 24K + buffer is what I think CO will be expecting. The big unknown here is what the buffer will be: 3K, 5K, 10K? I will expect at least 5K - 6K; so this might mean sometime around March'08 - April'08. If the buffer is ~10K, the dates might move to mid-2008; to me, it is safer to err on the side of have a larger buffer than not having enough pre-adjudicated visas to approve.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pch053

This sounds correct to me; 24K + buffer is what I think CO will be expecting. The big unknown here is what the buffer will be: 3K, 5K, 10K? I will expect at least 5K - 6K; so this might mean sometime around March'08 - April'08. If the buffer is ~10K, the dates might move to mid-2008; to me, it is safer to err on the side of have a larger buffer than not having enough pre-adjudicated visas to approve.

---

Thanks you pch. I completely agree with you. As I said earlier, you don't know what future holds. Having a huge buffer is a much better alternative than making dates current for both DOS and USCIS as they dont want the july 2007 fiasco again, although we folks would surely appreciate it, but realistic POV. At least current thought process of CO looks to be in sync with this.

Nishanth, Pch

This year he already had 8.5K+4k PWMB+minimum expectd porting before July 15th = atleast 15k

Even having 15k demand, he is pushing it another year (from April 15th in September bulletin to March in December), so having 5k or 10k buffer may be not his idea, I think (more than think I hope) he wants 50k filings to deal with

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pch053

nishant,
In your calculation shouldn't we also consider the # of visas that got approval in Oct'11. For example, if X I485 got approved in Oct, then the expected remaining SOFAD available for the year is 30K - X and we add some buffer on top of this. So what CO might be aiming for is (30K - X) + buffer. Now, we don't know what X is but ~6K (PDs from mid-April'07 to mid-June'07) got current during Oct and from trackitt and mittbs data it seems that a good portion on this 6K cases have been approved in Oct. Am I missing anything here?

---

I think CO needs more than 6K buffer to satisfy Quarterly Spill over for October/November 2012. He either can take this Buffer input in Jan/Feb 2012 or May/June 2012. In my opinion he will take it now itself as most of the people who are applying now will become demand by May/June 2012 and will raise senator/congressman enquiries.

bieber, one trick is with how much preadjudicated applications to enter next fiscal year with. I don't have an answer to this, but might be something to consider for CO.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bieber

Nishanth, Pch

This year he already had 8.5K+4k PWMB+minimum expectd porting before July 15th = atleast 15k

Even having 15k demand, he is pushing it another year (from April 15th in September bulletin to March in December), so having 5k or 10k buffer may be not his idea, I think (more than think I hope) he wants 50k filings to deal with

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pdmay2008

I think CO needs more than 6K buffer to satisfy Quarterly Spill over for October/November 2012. He either can take this Buffer input in Jan/Feb 2012 or May/June 2012. In my opinion he will take it now itself as most of the people who are applying now will become demand by May/June 2012 and will raise senator/congressman enquiries.

---

I think the plan for last FY was indeed to reach July in FY 2011 itself, and hence to reach June 2008 in FY 2012 and hence the NVC fee notices. The sudden acceleration in EB1 and EB2ROW and subsequent pause of September VB, I think, messed up CO's plans and now we are seeing his adjusted strategy unfold, no one of us are sure what is exactly the plan.

USCIS website has this alert:

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

Home > NEWS > Alerts
Printer Friendly
Revised I-693 to be Introduced Nov. 1

On Nov. 1, 2011, USCIS will introduce a new, more user-friendly version of the form used to report results of medical examinations for those seeking certain immigration benefits, Report of a Medical Examination and Vaccination Record, Form I-693. Civil surgeons completing medical examinations between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 2011, should use the new form dated 10/11/11. However, USCIS will continue to accept the previous version, dated 7/20/10, for examinations completed between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 2011. Beginning Jan. 1, 2012, civil surgeons must use the new version of the form.

If… Then…
A medical examination completed before Nov. 1 Use the I-693 dated 7/20/10
A medical examination completed between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 2011 Use the I-693 dated 10/11/11, though USCIS will continue to accept the 7/20/10 version
A medical examination completed on or after Jan. 1, 2012 You must use the I-693 dated 10/11/11


If a medical examination completed on or after Jan. 1, 2012, is reported using an outdated form, USCIS will reject the form, requiring the applicant to return to the civil surgeon and resubmit the new form.

USCIS requires most applicants seeking to adjust to lawful permanent resident status to submit Form I-693 to report the results of a medical examination by a designated civil surgeon, confirming that an applicant is admissible to the United States on public health grounds.



Edit: seems like kd2008 already put this info on the http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...en-Card-(I-485) thread in the morning today, before me.

October : http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...001%202011.pdf

What does 233 against Aug-2007 EB2 India mean ?
How can one file 485 for Aug 2007 and it's counted in Oct Inventory report ?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by nishant2200

I think the plan for last FY was indeed to reach July in FY 2011 itself, and hence to reach June 2008 in FY 2012 and hence the NVC fee notices. The sudden acceleration in EB1 and EB2ROW and subsequent pause of September VB, I think, messed up CO's plans and now we are seeing his adjusted strategy unfold, no one of us are sure what is exactly the plan.

---

Nishant, what is NVC fee notices?

Sharing some interesting tidbits from Ron Gotcher's forum:

http://www.immigration-information.c...76/index2.html

Ron:

"Actually, at last year's AILA California Conference, Charlie said that the USCIS has been talking with the Visa Office about the idea of allowing anyone with an approved I-140 apply for adjustment of status. I have no idea if those talks went anywhere."

"Both the USCIS and the Visa Office report that the number of upgrades dropped off significantly about a year ago."

"They do, but there is no way to know how many of those were upgrades, what priority dates and preference categories are associated with them, or whether they have already been issued visas (as in all first pref and WW second)." for the question: Hi Ron, Based on the current EB3-EB2 porting rates will the PD for EB2 still move fast? In your opinion how much would be the impact of eb3-eb2 porting on EB2 PD?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by venkimakthal

Nishant, what is NVC fee notices?

---

http://www.immihelp.com/immigrant-visa/

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by nishant2200

http://www.immihelp.com/immigrant-visa/

---

nishant, may be silly question to ask you, just wanted to get the picture, mine is apr 8, 2008, will i suppose to get NVC fee notice

If ur option to file 485 is Consular processing then maybe, if its AOS you will not get the notice.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by venkimakthal

nishant, may be silly question to ask you, just wanted to get the picture, mine is apr 8, 2008, will i suppose to get NVC fee notice

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by cbpds1

If ur option to file 485 is Consular processing then maybe, if its AOS you will not get the notice.

---

May be i am asking basic qquestions, mine I140 is approved whether it becomes CP or AOS
Edit. Never mind i m in us, i will fall under aos

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by venkimakthal

nishant, may be silly question to ask you, just wanted to get the picture, mine is apr 8, 2008, will i suppose to get NVC fee notice

---

This comes if lawyer choose consular processing option instead of adjustment of status. I don't know where they indicate this, maybe on the I-140 application form somewhere. Consular processing cases for EB2 is very less and rare, people gives estimate of around 2% of total applications. Hence it is very likely your lawyer chose AOS and not CP, and hence you didn't get the NVC fee notice. Otherwise people with April 2008 PD have claimed to have got the fee notice.

AOS & CP are two mutually exclusive options available for GC. It does not matter if you are in US or not. Mostly ROW and people who are confident that the dates will be current all through their CP process, would dare CP, because you will not have the privilege of EAD. I heard it's slightly faster process, but the paper work that you need to submit is enormous. Especially, police certificates from each of the places that you lived in last 10 years. I would be roaming around the world again to collect:) so, I did not opt that.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by venkimakthal

May be i am asking basic qquestions, mine I140 is approved whether it becomes CP or AOS
Edit. Never mind i m in us, i will fall under aos

---

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...011-10-31.html

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by leo07

AOS & CP are two mutually exclusive options available for GC. It does not matter if you are in US or not. Mostly ROW and people who are confident that the dates will be current all through their CP process, would dare CP, because you will not have the privilege of EAD. I heard it's slightly faster process, but the paper work that you need to submit is enormous. Especially, police certificates from each of the places that you lived in last 10 years. I would be roaming around the world again to collect:) so, I did not opt that.

---

Thank u all, i got the answer

Updating the correct address in "your file" is important. They will update in all appropriate places. In short, your are good.

Thanks for reminder dec2007!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by krishnav

Hi All,

I am on H1B right now and I was changing my address through ar-11 form and for the question "You are in us as", I submitted as "Visitor".
Is that right? Or should I have set it to other and said "H1B". If I did a mistake about that, what can I do to correct it? Please advise.

Thanks.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by leo07

Updating the correct address in "your file" is important. They will update in all appropriate places. In short, your are good.

---

Leo07, can you include the quote to which you are responding. it is easy to understand. thanks,

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by venkimakthal

Is it safe to finish the medicals now rather than running when my date becomes current? My PD April 8, 2008. Still I am not confident my date becomes current in at least Jan 2012 VB.

---

You can get your vaccines now (or assemble the records that you have been vaccinated).. but DO NOT get the civil surgeons certificate (I-693) filled.. those have very limited validity.. wait for your date to become current before you go to civil surgeon for I-693.. this has been discussed in detail in separate thread..

I am curious to see what people feel about the possibility of HR 3012 becoming law in a few months. Ron Gotcher is his newsletter says that this is s possibility but that doesn't imply anything. I think many other well known lawyers are also quite positive about HR 3012 and this is probably the furthest an immigration bill has come up in recent years. But, I am still not sure whether it will at become a law after the voting and I guess, we all have to wait and watch for the final outcome.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pch053

I am curious to see what people feel about the possibility of HR 3012 becoming law in a few months. Ron Gotcher is his newsletter says that this is s possibility but that doesn't imply anything. I think many other well known lawyers are also quite positive about HR 3012 and this is probably the furthest an immigration bill has come up in recent years. But, I am still not sure whether it will at become a law after the voting and I guess, we all have to wait and watch for the final outcome.

---

Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

The bill is in the legislative process so anything's possible. But there are major hurdles (economy, elections) so makes it less probable.

PS: the only thing it has going for it is that it doesn't change anything for Americans

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by leo07

Updating the correct address in "your file" is important. They will update in all appropriate places. In short, your are good.

Thanks for reminder dec2007!

---

Hi Leo07,

What do you mean by "your file"...do you mean my I485 application or do you mean my Ar11 application copy?? I am a little confused.
One more thing is I called USCIS and the customer rep said they dont deal with this kind of issue and asked me to try resubmitting the ar11 with the updated info which I did.

pch, I think the bill has huge lobbying money behind it by companies like MS, google etc. I personally feel that it has very high chance of being law. We are not asking for more green cards on this law, this is its major benefit in light of current economy. Same amount of green card which wud have gone anyway, but in FIFO.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pch053

I am curious to see what people feel about the possibility of HR 3012 becoming law in a few months. Ron Gotcher is his newsletter says that this is s possibility but that doesn't imply anything. I think many other well known lawyers are also quite positive about HR 3012 and this is probably the furthest an immigration bill has come up in recent years. But, I am still not sure whether it will at become a law after the voting and I guess, we all have to wait and watch for the final outcome.

---

Thanks Q, srimurthy, sandeep11, indiasunil, manubhai and mysati for your thoughtful replies. I am much relieved after your advice. Since they have not asked for any documents, I am just going to keep my fingers crossed, check my email like a maniac, inform my company of the stupidity, call VFS with the regularity of going to the loo after having golgappas* and finally, send laddus* to all of you once I land back in US.

*PS> QBF - golgappas are a street food in India that are sure to give you diarrhea (although I have avoided the fate on this trip) - but they are so tasty that you can not resist them. Laddus are a kind of sweet - usually distributed on occasions of celebration.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by imdeng

Sorry for cluttering the forum - Q - please remove this later to appropriate location.

As I had posted, I am in India with my wife for Diwali. We went to New Delhi Embassy for our H1B stamping - our interview was fine and quick (I work for a large Univ in Business School and she works for a large bank). We got our visas back in 3-4 days - all fine - except - they had printed our Employer Names wrong - wrong campus in my case and National Association in her case instead of North America (for HSBC N A). They asked her to submit the passports back for visa correction to VFS with a cover letter. We did that. No response for a week and finally today we got an email saying that the passport is for 221(g) administrative processing.

This is such a shock to us. We are on H1B for more than 3 years and this was just a reissue of the visa. There is nothing in our background that will inspire suspicion. We even had the visa - it was their mistake that they printed our employer name wrong (BOTH OF THEM!) - and now we are stuck.

PLEASE if anyone has any thoughts on the way forward - please let me know. This is the first time I have ever had any immigration problem and don't know what to do. Please help.

---

Guys, CM's lawyer friend whom I have come to respect, provides this info.

Source: http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com

Today I talked to our attorney friend and asked him his views on statement made by Mr. Oppenheim about future movements within EB and FB category and what information they have across their law firm regarding EB2- IC

Here is his feedback as per information floating around the firm.

"Mr. Oppenheim did make those projections for EB and FB category. All the stated projections did came from Mr. Oppenheim himself. Everything other than "01 March 2008" for EB2 IC was explicitly stated. During addressing everyone in meeting Mr Oppenheim mentioned that significant movement as Big as 3-4 months is expected in December bulletin with follow on movement in Jan- Feb 2012 based on demand. I(attorney) am not sure if specific date of '01 Mar 2008' was given to specific group of people later on but was not mentioned in our presence. On asking about excessive backlog in currently released inventory and it's repercussion on the stated projections, Mr. Oppenheim mentioned that he is not aware of released data from USCIS and will look into it later. Nevertheless, he still made it very clear that some significant movement for EB2 IC is necessary to generate demand for fiscal year in order to keep cases adjudicated for processing at USCIS later in the year.

Based on released inventory it may be that Mr. Oppenheim will rethink his projected movement for EB2IC. I(attorney) believe this would mean bigger movement than 3-4 months for EB2- IC in December and early retrogression than projected in summer 2012 in such case. Mr. Oppenheim was insistent about acute need to ensure enough cases are ready for adjudication before summer 2012."

CM - I believe this is very good news but please take it with a grain of salt. Let's hope for the best and be ready for the worst.
adjudication

My greencard was filed in Richmond VA, I moved to another location twice since then. Also, my company is head quartered in Minneapolis, but at the time of filing, they had a branch office located in Richmond which is now closed. My I140 is approved. How does this situation affect my future greencard processing?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ragx08

That explains! For a permanent job, the position is tied with the location and even if transferred to a different location (> 35mi) it is as good as changing jobs - requiring new PERM and I-140. Always wondered how the consulting firms got away with this :-)!

Thanx.

---

Chilli19,
I saw your signature that you lost your old PD due to 221(g) at new Delhi. Can you please provide more details?

This is the firest time I am hearing this. I am going for Visa interview in New Delhi in about 20 days.. and am wondering what happend///

Thanks!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Chilli19

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...011-10-31.html

---

Basically, all your pending applications with CIS will have address updated with AR-11. So, don't worry and relax.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by krishnav

Hi Leo07,

What do you mean by "your file"...do you mean my I485 application or do you mean my Ar11 application copy?? I am a little confused.
One more thing is I called USCIS and the customer rep said they dont deal with this kind of issue and asked me to try resubmitting the ar11 with the updated info which I did.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by evoori

You can get your vaccines now (or assemble the records that you have been vaccinated).. but DO NOT get the civil surgeons certificate (I-693) filled.. those have very limited validity.. wait for your date to become current before you go to civil surgeon for I-693.. this has been discussed in detail in separate thread..

---

Good Idea, thank you my friend

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by venkimakthal

Good Idea, thank you my friend

Edit: I called my insurance and told me that vaccinations like Hepatitis-A, Hepatitis-B, .. are 100% covered, I will get the shots done except filling the I-693 form as you said

---

All vaccinations should be covered. Let me know if your experience is otherwise. I'm going to check with my insurance company as well (CIGNA).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

My greencard was filed in Richmond VA, I moved to another location twice since then. Also, my company is head quartered in Minneapolis, but at the time of filing, they had a branch office located in Richmond which is now closed. My I140 is approved. How does this situation affect my future greencard processing?

---

Nishant_imt,

If the PERM was filed for a position in Richmond VA, then I guess you are in trouble. I'm not an expert - but believe in being safe than sorry. If I were you, I would check with the company attorney.

-Ragx

TRIVIAL INFORMATION

Status update on Visa Bulletin page

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: December 2011 (Coming Soon)

AFAIK, none of these immigration related tests/vaccines are covered by insurance. I'd like to be proven wrong and save some money :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vizcard

All vaccinations should be covered. Let me know if your experience is otherwise. I'm going to check with my insurance company as well (CIGNA).

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by natvyas

TRIVIAL INFORMATION

Status update on Visa Bulletin page

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: December 2011 (Coming Soon)

---

If the VB is coming on this Friday then it will be very good news like Nov VB; otherwise it will just good news :)

This is normal. They do it every month

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by natvyas

TRIVIAL INFORMATION

Status update on Visa Bulletin page

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: December 2011 (Coming Soon)

---