EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

If the date moves to 1 Mar 2008 how many applications will USCIS have (including the ones they already have)?

I did take a look at Spec's table and considered 4K porting, however I wasnt sure about the effect, the Oct approvals will have on the number of applications that will be pending review.

Regards
Nat

Thanks srimurthy. Your thoughts give me hope. I am planning on working remotely but my wife's employer may not be accomodating. If anybody else have any thoughts - please share. If you don't want to clutter the main thread - then please send a PM.

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Originally Posted by srimurthy

Hi Imdeng,

Sorry to hear about your situtation. If they have to change any info, they would first cross check and then make the changes and for cross checking they would issue a 221(g). I guess if you infrom your lawyer and your organization, and send them copies of the discrepencies they should be ready to answer that it was Embassy's issue when they interpreted wrongly and have to correct and the employers can provide the supporting info needed. Usually its 2 to 3 months for a 221(g), but those are even before a visa is stamped. But in your case since Visa was already approved and stamped, hope it gets done with in your vacation period.

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imdeng- I understand your situation, but as far as i Know there is nothing to worry about.

May be my situation will help ease your stress a little bit:

I scheduled an interview for my wife at Chennai for her H4 few years back. I was in the same situation as yours. They usually issue 221G for any stuff they take back for corrections. 221G is only way for them to track and respond to your queries. It took us 2weeks before we got back the passport. I used to call the VFS almost everyday ( its a pain but we are at their mercy).

So nothing to worry. Since you already submitted all documents relax and you should recieve the passports shortly.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Sorry for cluttering the forum - Q - please remove this later to appropriate location.

As I had posted, I am in India with my wife for Diwali. We went to New Delhi Embassy for our H1B stamping - our interview was fine and quick (I work for a large Univ in Business School and she works for a large bank). We got our visas back in 3-4 days - all fine - except - they had printed our Employer Names wrong - wrong campus in my case and National Association in her case instead of North America (for HSBC N A). They asked her to submit the passports back for visa correction to VFS with a cover letter. We did that. No response for a week and finally today we got an email saying that the passport is for 221(g) administrative processing.

This is such a shock to us. We are on H1B for more than 3 years and this was just a reissue of the visa. There is nothing in our background that will inspire suspicion. We even had the visa - it was their mistake that they printed our employer name wrong (BOTH OF THEM!) - and now we are stuck.

PLEASE if anyone has any thoughts on the way forward - please let me know. This is the first time I have ever had any immigration problem and don't know what to do. Please help.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Teddy, thanks for ur hard work.

The EB1C growing 4 times goes well with the inventory report that shows 4k pending in EB1 India. What happens if EB1 India grabs a lot, do they retro too and get SO. Is that bad, good, any repurcussions?

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Right now the data from Trackitt is limited, it shows EB1C growing but more than compensated by EB1 A & B declines. So for now nothing to worry, however if EB1 grows then it will reduce SOFAD. I think the heat of the inventory and I140 has not been felt yet.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Sorry for cluttering the forum - Q - please remove this later to appropriate location.

As I had posted, I am in India with my wife for Diwali. We went to New Delhi Embassy for our H1B stamping - our interview was fine and quick (I work for a large Univ in Business School and she works for a large bank). We got our visas back in 3-4 days - all fine - except - they had printed our Employer Names wrong - wrong campus in my case and National Association in her case instead of North America (for HSBC N A). They asked her to submit the passports back for visa correction to VFS with a cover letter. We did that. No response for a week and finally today we got an email saying that the passport is for 221(g) administrative processing.

This is such a shock to us. We are on H1B for more than 3 years and this was just a reissue of the visa. There is nothing in our background that will inspire suspicion. We even had the visa - it was their mistake that they printed our employer name wrong (BOTH OF THEM!) - and now we are stuck.

PLEASE if anyone has any thoughts on the way forward - please let me know. This is the first time I have ever had any immigration problem and don't know what to do. Please help.

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I had same experience got my passport in two weeks with corrections, initially issued 221g.. Its just reference way to track your case. All these kind of cases, usually will take 2 to 4 weeks as i know.

Thanks,
Sunil.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Sorry for cluttering the forum - Q - please remove this later to appropriate location.

As I had posted, I am in India with my wife for Diwali. We went to New Delhi Embassy for our H1B stamping - our interview was fine and quick (I work for a large Univ in Business School and she works for a large bank). We got our visas back in 3-4 days - all fine - except - they had printed our Employer Names wrong - wrong campus in my case and National Association in her case instead of North America (for HSBC N A). They asked her to submit the passports back for visa correction to VFS with a cover letter. We did that. No response for a week and finally today we got an email saying that the passport is for 221(g) administrative processing.

This is such a shock to us. We are on H1B for more than 3 years and this was just a reissue of the visa. There is nothing in our background that will inspire suspicion. We even had the visa - it was their mistake that they printed our employer name wrong (BOTH OF THEM!) - and now we are stuck.

PLEASE if anyone has any thoughts on the way forward - please let me know. This is the first time I have ever had any immigration problem and don't know what to do. Please help.

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imdeng - I'd say the same as a few others here - That you just need to make sure you call them and that you will ultimately get the passports back. A lot depends on what they have asked for on 221. My wife got a 221g last year, and upon submitting all documents, she got the passport within one week. About 8 years ago, I got the wrong university name printed on my F1 visa and upon submission, got the corrected visa stamp within 2 days. (Didnt have 221g those days) The cancelled visa should read "CANCELLED WITHOUT PREJUDICE" to indicate that the visa was cancelled not because of the holder's fault.

I understand this can be a tense time. However, if you got the visa, just dont worry about it. Make sure you DO what you can DO... ie, keep a close tab on the status by making those aggravating calls to VFS and by submitting any docs they have asked for on 221. Also, keep your firm(s) in loop in case you need to delay your return ticket because of this delay. In summary - you will possibly lose some time, money, and peace, but you will get your visa soon enough.

Good luck... and update us when things get better.

This is it guys. If demand data shows up on friday, it will be friday or else monday. Betting odds are on monday for me, my brain says monday but heart says friday. Minimum 2 month move to max 5 month move of 1st april 2008.

Just like what several others mentioned in the forum, you need not panic. My parents had a similar experience 3 years back. Just provide whatever documents they asked for and you should be getting back your passport with a week. Like what Manubhai said, make sure that the older stamping is completely cancelled without any prejudice.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Sorry for cluttering the forum - Q - please remove this later to appropriate location.

As I had posted, I am in India with my wife for Diwali. We went to New Delhi Embassy for our H1B stamping - our interview was fine and quick (I work for a large Univ in Business School and she works for a large bank). We got our visas back in 3-4 days - all fine - except - they had printed our Employer Names wrong - wrong campus in my case and National Association in her case instead of North America (for HSBC N A). They asked her to submit the passports back for visa correction to VFS with a cover letter. We did that. No response for a week and finally today we got an email saying that the passport is for 221(g) administrative processing.

This is such a shock to us. We are on H1B for more than 3 years and this was just a reissue of the visa. There is nothing in our background that will inspire suspicion. We even had the visa - it was their mistake that they printed our employer name wrong (BOTH OF THEM!) - and now we are stuck.

PLEASE if anyone has any thoughts on the way forward - please let me know. This is the first time I have ever had any immigration problem and don't know what to do. Please help.

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What is the probability of the dates for EB2-IC retrogressing? If so, when and how far back? If there's any prediction for this, pls point me to it!

It would be an insult to "slavery" to call us slaves. I'm sure you are venting out your frustration, as I have done in the past many times in my last 14 years. But in retrospect and remembering all the previous generations who had to go through real 'slavery', I honestly think you can't call H1B a slavery by any extent. Yes, there's exploitation,as I have been exposed to such many a time, but that was totally my choice.( helplessness??)

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I really wouldn't call our situation or those described in your link "slavery".

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gang of all.... my 140 is approved from SRC texas service center... So where would my 485 be posted to?

T, I agree. If the dates move to Jan 1st 2008 then we can consider it as a cautious move by CO and can expect another forward movement in Jan 2012 VB.
In all, we must continue to remember that dates could retrogress anytime in 2012. So, if you are current don't even think of waiting to file your AOS for any reason. Push the envelope out to CIS as soon as you turn current.

Congrats. Same Service center.(TSC). Unless your job site changed, which will require you to file amendment in the new service center.( what ever that is).It doesn't look like yours changed, so you will send your envelope to TSC.

There's high probability of retrogression in EB2-IC, even if it is for couple of months through May 2012. Possible that August 1st 2007 will sustain even if the dates retrogress.

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Originally Posted by leo07

If the dates move to Jan 1st 2008 then we can consider it as a cautious move by CO and can expect another forward movement in Jan 2012 VB.

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Leo07

I think it's opposite, if dates won't move to march1, 2008 or beyond in next bulletin I don't think there will be anymore movement in Jan/Feb

why are we talking abt predictions when CO has stated it will be atleast Mar-01-2008 ?, I think u shd predict anything more than mar 2008, isnt it? whats changed now.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

This is it guys. If demand data shows up on friday, it will be friday or else monday. Betting odds are on monday for me, my brain says monday but heart says friday. Minimum 2 month move to max 5 month move of 1st april 2008.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

gang of all.... my 140 is approved from SRC texas service center... So where would my 485 be posted to?

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Food is ready - Wait in line - Its Buffet Queue.. :-)

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Originally Posted by indiasunil

Food is ready - Wait in line - Its Buffet Queue.. :-)

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arey uncle...when the person serving is one of us... we can stand/sit/sleep/bend any where samjhee.... also it is CO's queue not Buffet's....

coming to my question again... I got my 140 approved 2 years back when i was in texas and now i am in NJ... so where should my 485 go?????

bieber, Since these are assumptions over a very tiny period of time, I'm sure it can go either way. I see your point, but I'm thinking a 4 month surge would more or less indicate a highly speculative move by CO. Instead he would take 2 tiny months at a time to test his step. 4 month move would warrant an immediate retrogression as he doesn't have visas in pocket and congressmen breathing over his neck will only make his life worse.

however acc to murthy.com its going to be atleast mar 1 2008 for dec bulletin , isnt it?....im confused.

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Originally Posted by leo07

bieber, Since these are assumptions over a very tiny period of time, I'm sure it can go either way. I see your point, but I'm thinking a 4 month surge would more or less indicate a highly speculative move by CO. Instead he would take 2 tiny months at a time to test his step. 4 month move would warrant an immediate retrogression as he doesn't have visas in pocket and congressmen breathing over his neck will only make his life worse.

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Sorry, you don't have to be confused, it's just a theory not a fact set on stone.

Are you with same employer? If your place of work changes/moves 25 miles outside the area in which your labor petition is filed, different set of laws apply. Please check with an attorney immediately.
btw, Did you file AR-11?

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Originally Posted by soggadu

arey uncle...when the person serving is one of us... we can stand/sit/sleep/bend any where samjhee.... also it is CO's queue not Buffet's....

coming to my question again... I got my 140 approved 2 years back when i was in texas and now i am in NJ... so where should my 485 go?????

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if VB cut off date is April 8th 2008. Only folkks whose priority date is April 7th or lower are eligible to file. April 8th and above will have to wait.

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Originally Posted by venkimakthal

I quick question may be silly, if my priority date is April 8, 2008 and VB cut of date is also April 8, 2008, am I eligible to apply the 485 or I need to wait VB cut of date becomes April 15, 2008 or later.

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Originally Posted by leo07

Are you with same employer? If your place of work changes/moves 25 miles outside the area in which your labor petition is filed, different set of laws apply. Please check with an attorney immediately.
btw, Did you file AR-11?

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That is when his 'future' job location is moved. Not current Job. This comes into picture generally when employer address changes IMHO.

AFAIK, The location/job for which employer filed a labor and "immigration' petition(140) changes, you cannot use those petitions to file a 485. if push comes to shove,you can argue if employer is on your behalf all the time, that the petition is for a future employment and not current.

Nishant

Could you please answer my question stated below?

Thanks
Nat

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Originally Posted by natvyas

If the date moves to 1 Mar 2008 how many applications will USCIS have (including the ones they already have)?

I did take a look at Spec's table and considered 4K porting, however I wasnt sure about the effect, the Oct approvals will have on the number of applications that will be pending review.

Regards
Nat

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Originally Posted by soggadu

arey uncle...when the person serving is one of us... we can stand/sit/sleep/bend any where samjhee.... also it is CO's queue not Buffet's....

coming to my question again... I got my 140 approved 2 years back when i was in texas and now i am in NJ... so where should my 485 go?????

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Soggadu,

If your employer's address (the one that sponsored your I-140) remains the same, then you have nothing to worry - check with the attorney wrt the address to send the forms.

But if your employer address changed (new location > 35mi from old address) - then you will have to start the PERM & I-140 all over again -retaining the old PD.

If you moved to a branch office in NJ and if your employer still has an office in the old address, then you can get away with a letter from the employer saying that your future employment is going to be in the original (old) location.

I had a similar issue where my employer moved the HQ from midwest to mountain region and shut down the old HQ office. I got my PERM filed (approved last month) and filed for I-140 two weeks back - retaining old PD.

Goodluck!

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Originally Posted by soggadu

arey uncle...when the person serving is one of us... we can stand/sit/sleep/bend any where samjhee.... also it is CO's queue not Buffet's....

coming to my question again... I got my 140 approved 2 years back when i was in texas and now i am in NJ... so where should my 485 go?????

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Does it matters ?? I am not sure, never thought of this.. I moved to 3 to 4 places after my I-140. Now in NJ.

Generally, the body shoppers/consultants have a way to work around this; the employee could be moving across the country during the process - but the employer's HQ remains the same and they don't have any issues whatsoever with the process - not sure how. If you are employed with a consulting firm and moved from TX to NJ to take up new project - then you better check with your employer......

Teddy gave earlier an argument about how he feels until Nov 1st 2007, there are 2.5 k preadjudicated, 4k PWMB, and 10k new applications and also a higher density of 3k per month.

Considering the higher density 3k for December 2007 and November 2007 also:
16.5k + 6k = 22.5k for 2007 ending.

Now for Jan and Feb 2008, lets revert back to Specs estimate, and it comes to 4,988 which is like 5k, i.e. 2.5k a month, so I will just consider 2.5k a month density for simplicity sake. Hence until 1st March 2008, 22.5k + 5k = 27.5k.

Now, purely looking at previous years' trend(s), I think he should keep 30k + some buffer. If we say buffer is two months worth, and consider 2.5k average per month for 2008, we get to 3 more months for 27.5k + 7.5k = 35k, and date comes to 1st June 2008, and that is pretty darn close to what the NVC fee bills were sent for.

I personally feel CO should just go by past trend at this point, and disregard noise if any raised by USCIS about backlogs, porting and other variables, as the future so far is not in anyone's hands, just yesterday Teddy showed how at least just October trackitt trend is surprisingly pointed to high SOFAD, inspite of backlog and inventory negatives. I believe that CO's predictions are in line with these thoughts. So far so good.

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Originally Posted by natvyas

Nishant

Could you please answer my question stated below?

Thanks
Nat

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Originally Posted by cbpds1

why are we talking abt predictions when CO has stated it will be atleast Mar-01-2008 ?, I think u shd predict anything more than mar 2008, isnt it? whats changed now.

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point taken Sir. CO definitely more smarter and authority than me, I will keep my mouth shut on predictions on this Dec VB :)

Hi All,

I am on H1B right now and I was changing my address through ar-11 form and for the question "You are in us as", I submitted as "Visitor".
Is that right? Or should I have set it to other and said "H1B". If I did a mistake about that, what can I do to correct it? Please advise.

Thanks.

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Originally Posted by ragx08

Generally, the body shoppers/consultants have a way to work around this; the employee could be moving across the country during the process - but the employer's HQ remains the same and they don't have any issues whatsoever with the process - not sure how. If you are employed with a consulting firm and moved from TX to NJ to take up new project - then you better check with your employer......

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There is no work around or anything. PERM Job is advertised as head Office as base location. In job description its mentioned that employee will take assignments in different parts of US. Thats how consulting companies work (big or small).

Thanks Nishant !

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Originally Posted by suninphx

There is no work around or anything. PERM Job is advertised as head Office as base location. In job description its mentioned that employee will take assignments in different parts of US. Thats how consulting companies work (big or small).

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That explains! For a permanent job, the position is tied with the location and even if transferred to a different location (> 35mi) it is as good as changing jobs - requiring new PERM and I-140. Always wondered how the consulting firms got away with this :-)!

Thanx.

hey i was just asking to know if something changed in the past few days, thats all. Please continue to write abt it as u have been very helpful like the other gurus !!

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

point taken Sir. CO definitely more smarter and authority than me, I will keep my mouth shut on predictions on this Dec VB :)

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Originally Posted by ragx08

That explains! For a permanent job, the position is tied with the location and even if transferred to a different location (> 35mi) it is as good as changing jobs - requiring new PERM and I-140. Always wondered how the consulting firms got away with this :-)!

Thanx.

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Thank got my consulting employer changed the location but with in 5miles, otherwise I am end up with filing PERM and I-140 again.

Soggadu,

So, what is your case? Are you safe?

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Originally Posted by venkimakthal

Thank got my consulting employer changed the location but with in 5miles, otherwise I am end up with filing PERM and I-140 again.

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You are lucky dude!

Is it safe to finish the medicals now rather than running when my date becomes current? My PD April 8, 2008. Still I am not confident my date becomes current in at least Jan 2012 VB.