EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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10-29-2020, 12:59 PM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

I really feel they are resisting moving FADs as much as they can As they don’t want EB-I gain to materialize. I have a feeling they are waiting to see more demand from EB-ROW which they can issue visas first.. before moving dates for retrogressed countries

I need more data to believe in this hypothesis. Remember in September some of us were certain that this administration will NOT let ppl. to even file so much in advance and here we are! Therefore, I need a trend line of at east 4-6 month through this Fiscal to comment on the visa wastage. Right now all I see is so much uncertainty and variability with a potential of an admin. change that could be imminent. Its anybody's guess right now. Depending on whether you are a glass half full or empty person you can be living either in a false exuberance or an imminent doom world of yours.
10-29-2020, 01:05 PM
rabp77

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

I really feel they are resisting moving FADs as much as they can As they don’t want EB-I gain to materialize. I have a feeling they are waiting to see more demand from EB-ROW which they can issue visas first.. before moving dates for retrogressed countries

I don't think I would jump to that conclusion. At least not yet. By accepting a large number of applicants, the stage is set to approve them quickly in case visa numbers are available at the end of fy, and all processing has been completed. Slow movement initially doesn't mean it will continue to be so for the rest of fy. In the past, pace of movement has been accelerated during the fy at times. I think there is a good probability that eb2 movement can get much faster than 3weeks per month that we saw in November.
10-29-2020, 01:13 PM
EB2IndSep09

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

EB2IndSep09, I am glad to see that you are not showing your disappointment for missing FA by a few days. So "rapid movement" is 3 weeks for EB2I. The prediction in Oct VB is valid for the first quarter. So the best case scenario can we expect EB2I to be:
Dec Bulletin: 13OCT2009
Jan Bulletin: 03NOV2009

I guess EB3I will be moving at 1.5 months per bulletin and will be 01JUN2010 in Jan bulletin.

All those people supporting DT for the second term, do you really think the SO from FB to EB is going to result in GCs? With the current speed they are on course to waste a record number of GCs. I was hoping that JB presidency will use most of the SO visas. However, it is just a hypothesis. I am just imagining that the grass is greener on the other side. It may just be weeds. (sarcasm)!

Idliman,
I am glad that I would be able to file my AOS in Oct 2020 after a long wait so no room for disappointment. Hope my lawyer sends my AOS file tonight fingers crossed.
My perspective on rapid movement is different, may be once we go back and compare to 2018 and 2019 visa bulletins, it is a rapid movement as the dates were crawling one day or two days or none bulletin to bulletin
10-29-2020, 01:48 PM
bookworm

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

I really feel they are resisting moving FADs as much as they can As they don’t want EB-I gain to materialize. I have a feeling they are waiting to see more demand from EB-ROW which they can issue visas first.. before moving dates for retrogressed countries

Occams Razor - These are Federal Govt employees who will work like a sloth. They just dont have the processing capacity (and willingness) to move things quickly. Anecdotal evidence is the amount of time it is taking to send out receipts for new filings. If you start seeing a spurt in Card Mailed on Trackitt it will be the forward indicator that dates will move "rapidly" in subsequent VB. Till then keep refreshing the visa bulletin page:(
10-29-2020, 03:06 PM
suninphx

Spec,

Is there any technical reason for this sluggish FAD movement in EB2-3I categories? I am aware of 'other' possible reasons.
10-29-2020, 03:09 PM
AceMan

One interesting thing I have noticed is Eb1 India FAD moved 6 months. If it can maintain same speed for next couple of bulletins, we can expect it to be current by the end of 2nd quarter and Eb2 can see some long awaited spillover in the April 2021 bulletin.

Hopefully by that time Eb2 reaches possibly March 2010 and the spillover can propel the dates to December 2010.

If the Eb3 final dates did not reach that date by then, 3rd quarter of 2021 is going to be fun.

Oh btw I am expecting Biden to win and the Trump EO for EB interviews might be gone. It may result in the GC allocation faster.
10-29-2020, 03:15 PM
texas_

Since there is no USCIS final action date mentioned, what is the Final Action Date for November 2020 for EB2 India and EB3 India ?
10-29-2020, 03:42 PM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

Oh btw I am expecting Biden to win and the Trump EO for EB interviews might be gone. It may result in the GC allocation faster.

That election outcome might result in a push for FB immigration.
10-29-2020, 03:50 PM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

That election outcome might result in a push for FB immigration.

That is true. But the push mainly will be to allocate additional visas to FB by recapturing unused visa numbers. There were already quite a few bills going around which would help the doctors/essential works by granting them GCs this way. So I would not worry about FB. Dems would be shooting themselves in the foot if they touch the SO visas to EB. Politicians may be useless but not stupid.
10-29-2020, 04:21 PM
vedu

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

Spec,

Is there any technical reason for this sluggish FAD movement in EB2-3I categories? I am aware of 'other' possible reasons.

It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.

Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!;)
10-29-2020, 05:36 PM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by vsivarama

Dems would be shooting themselves in the foot if they touch the SO visas to EB. Politicians may be useless but not stupid.

Not sure ! I have seen people being dems before getting GC and moving to red camp the day GC arrives :)
10-29-2020, 05:38 PM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by vedu

It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.

Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!;)

Vedu, this Is what I am thinking as well. Let's wait for Spec's realistic answer ( if he chooses to reply that is).
10-29-2020, 06:30 PM
Moveon

Quote:

Originally Posted by vedu

It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.

Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!;)

I suppose everyone is pissed off with the Bulletin, especially the EB2-I folks . For EB2 , if we assume a backlog of ~1.5K GCs per month until April 30th 2010 , we will have about 15K GCs that they will need to issue to clear the 2012 backlog.
So with 30K extra green cards in just EB2 and moving dates by just 3 weeks , they will certainly waste GCs again as it won't go past April 2010 . This is just another stalling tactic by USCIS to prevent India from getting GCs. Who ever gets elected is not going to lift a finger for us. The 120K SO is an unintended consequence (so lets not praise anyone) and looks like they doing everything to prevent the issuance of this SO, or the most of it .

BTW for the last fiscal did they issue 144K GCs or did they waste 20K as reported ?
10-30-2020, 12:47 AM
pdc2014

SO calculations/ predictions

261k/12 months=21,791 for each month available for all countries, subdivided into each EB1/2/3 category with 28.6% and then applying 7% country quota.

Vertical = EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged

Horizontal= 121k SO / 12 months is 14580/month, EB 1/2/3 get 4170 visas per month 28.6% each category. Since, EB2I is most backlogged(as all countries are current) each month EB2I gets 4170 visas from FB Horizontal SO.

When EB1I gets current all VERTICAL SO will go to EB2I.

EB3I will be backlogged due to massive downgrades(after May2011 PD). With no vertical SO and less Horizontal SO in comparison with EB2I as other countries in EB3 Category will share FB SO as other countries does have EB3 backlog.

Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.

If Uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k visas will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around Dec 2012 and Sep 2011 respectively by Sep 2021.
10-30-2020, 12:47 AM
pdc2014

SO calculations/ predictions
261k/12 months=21,791 for each month available for all countries, subdivided into each EB1/2/3 category with 28.6% and then applying 7% country quota.

Vertical = EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged

Horizontal= 121k SO / 12 months is 14580/month, EB 1/2/3 get 4170 visas per month 28.6% each category. Since, EB2I is most backlogged(as all countries are current) each month EB2I gets 4170 visas from FB Horizontal SO.

When EB1I gets current all VERTICAL SO will go to EB2I.

EB3I will be backlogged due to massive downgrades(after May2011 PD). With no vertical SO and less Horizontal SO in comparison with EB2I as other countries in EB3 Category will share FB SO as other countries does have EB3 backlog.

Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.

If Uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k visas will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around Dec 2012 and Sep 2011 respectively by Sep 2021.
10-30-2020, 12:54 AM
pdc2014

SO calculations/ predictions
261k/12 months=21,791 for each month available for all countries, subdivided into each EB1/2/3 category with 28.6% and then applying 7% country quota.

Vertical = EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged

Horizontal= 121k SO / 12 months is 14580/month, EB 1/2/3 get 4170 visas per month 28.6% each category. Since, EB2I is most backlogged(as all countries are current) each month EB2I gets 4170 visas from FB Horizontal SO.

When EB1I gets current all VERTICAL SO will go to EB2I.

EB3I will be backlogged due to massive downgrades(after May2011 PD). With no vertical SO and less Horizontal SO in comparison with EB2I as other countries in EB3 Category will share FB SO as other countries does have EB3 backlog.

Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.

If Uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k visas will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around Dec 2012 and Sep 2011 respectively by Sep 2021.
10-30-2020, 07:53 AM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moveon

I suppose everyone is pissed off with the Bulletin, especially the EB2-I folks . For EB2 , if we assume a backlog of ~1.5K GCs per month until April 30th 2010 , we will have about 15K GCs that they will need to issue to clear the 2012 backlog.
So with 30K extra green cards in just EB2 and moving dates by just 3 weeks , they will certainly waste GCs again as it won't go past April 2010 . This is just another stalling tactic by USCIS to prevent India from getting GCs. Who ever gets elected is not going to lift a finger for us. The 120K SO is an unintended consequence (so lets not praise anyone) and looks like they doing everything to prevent the issuance of this SO, or the most of it .

BTW for the last fiscal did they issue 144K GCs or did they waste 20K as reported ?

The only rapid movement for India was EB1. June 2018 inventory shows 1006 pending 485 EB2 I applications for September 2009. It appears to follow the pattern of processing around 700 applicants this bulletin instead of around 1700 processed for India in October. We have about 8000 more applicants in EB2 till May 2010 and if they average around 1000 a month it takes till the end of 3rd quarter to clear May 2010.

The good movement for Eb2 I in later half of 2021 needs EB1 India to clear within next 2-3 bulletins, COVID situation ensures the travel ban continue for another quarter. The downgrade to EB3 will make an impact only for Eb2 applicants beyond May 2011.
10-30-2020, 08:27 AM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moveon

I suppose everyone is pissed off with the Bulletin, especially the EB2-I folks . For EB2 , if we assume a backlog of ~1.5K GCs per month until April 30th 2010 , we will have about 15K GCs that they will need to issue to clear the 2012 backlog.
So with 30K extra green cards in just EB2 and moving dates by just 3 weeks , they will certainly waste GCs again as it won't go past April 2010 . This is just another stalling tactic by USCIS to prevent India from getting GCs. Who ever gets elected is not going to lift a finger for us. The 120K SO is an unintended consequence (so lets not praise anyone) and looks like they doing everything to prevent the issuance of this SO, or the most of it .

BTW for the last fiscal did they issue 144K GCs or did they waste 20K as reported ?

I don't understand your extreme pessimism here. The filing dates were never moved this aggressively in the past decade. This is already unprecedented, I would give a couple more months before doom scrolling here.
10-30-2020, 08:28 AM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

The only rapid movement for India was EB1. June 2018 inventory shows 1006 pending 485 EB2 I applications for September 2009. It appears to follow the pattern of processing around 700 applicants this bulletin instead of around 1700 processed for India in October. We have about 8000 more applicants in EB2 till May 2010 and if they average around 1000 a month it takes till the end of 3rd quarter to clear May 2010.

The good movement for Eb2 I in later half of 2021 needs EB1 India to clear within next 2-3 bulletins, COVID situation ensures the travel ban continue for another quarter. The downgrade to EB3 will make an impact only for Eb2 applicants beyond May 2011.

Downgrades will happen across the board as and when EB3 FAD starts chugging forward regardless of the PD ranges.
10-30-2020, 08:31 AM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by vedu

It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.

Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!;)

That's not a rule. Its been a general practice with exceptions.
10-30-2020, 08:34 AM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

One interesting thing I have noticed is Eb1 India FAD moved 6 months. If it can maintain same speed for next couple of bulletins, we can expect it to be current by the end of 2nd quarter and Eb2 can see some long awaited spillover in the April 2021 bulletin.

Hopefully by that time Eb2 reaches possibly March 2010 and the spillover can propel the dates to December 2010.

If the Eb3 final dates did not reach that date by then, 3rd quarter of 2021 is going to be fun.

Oh btw I am expecting Biden to win and the Trump EO for EB interviews might be gone. It may result in the GC allocation faster.

All fair points and by mid 2021 lotsa Q1 filers (like us) would be mostly done with admin. processing of adjudications and could be click away when the visas become available (assuming no interviews by then). Obviously painting an optimistic scenario here.
10-30-2020, 08:47 AM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

Not sure ! I have seen people being dems before getting GC and moving to red camp the day GC arrives :)

Yes, you are right and I have seen those people. I do not see things as D's vs R's issues. That's why I commend the old timers in this group like Q, Spec and others who are principled and consistent on issues (immigration here). And just because people flip from D to R does NOT necessarily mean they are anti-immigrant. It just means some other issue has taken up no 1 priority in their life since they do not have to worry about immigration anymore. There are plenty of issues in the world and frankly to a third party, they are all more important than someone's immigration status. But to most people in this forum immigration is probably one of the top priorities. Does that make us bad people? I don't think so.
10-30-2020, 08:53 AM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moveon

I suppose everyone is pissed off with the Bulletin, especially the EB2-I folks . For EB2 , if we assume a backlog of ~1.5K GCs per month until April 30th 2010 , we will have about 15K GCs that they will need to issue to clear the 2012 backlog.
So with 30K extra green cards in just EB2 and moving dates by just 3 weeks , they will certainly waste GCs again as it won't go past April 2010 . This is just another stalling tactic by USCIS to prevent India from getting GCs. Who ever gets elected is not going to lift a finger for us. The 120K SO is an unintended consequence (so lets not praise anyone) and looks like they doing everything to prevent the issuance of this SO, or the most of it .

BTW for the last fiscal did they issue 144K GCs or did they waste 20K as reported ?

Your argument might have merit when it comes to EB2 as most of the cases are prejudicated. As far as EB3 is concerned, People from May, 2010 just applied for 485 this month. So it does not really matter if the FAD moves past May 2010, No one is getting greened in a month of applying 485. Not throwing in the towel yet.
10-30-2020, 09:02 AM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

All fair points and by mid 2021 lotsa Q1 filers (like us) would be mostly done with admin. processing of adjudications and could be click away when the visas become available (assuming no interviews by then). Obviously painting an optimistic scenario here.

2009 might have little over 4000 applicants remaining.

2010 has little over 22,500 approved 140’s from India. If if you take the most optimistic count the total numbers for 2010 from India is not going to be less than 30,000.

Under one month movement for Eb2 and 1 and half month movement for Eb3 is way below the par rate for 2021. We got 10 more months to see if things speed up by 2nd quarter.
10-30-2020, 09:28 AM
delguy

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

I don't understand your extreme pessimism here. The filing dates were never moved this aggressively in the past decade. This is already unprecedented, I would give a couple more months before doom scrolling here.

Most likely the Filing Dates moved because uscis need money to survive plus they have planned fee increase for adjustment applications to go in effect from Oct 2 which got striked by a court on Sep 30th. So to me this was simply an exercise to mop up money. The way FADs didnt move as per the Spillover from FB is an indication that they still prefer to waste visas than issue them to backlogged countries.

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