EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Printable View

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

10-28-2020, 09:03 AM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

This is definitely an outlier year so the historic norms and expectations tend to break. I won't be surprised if the EB2 filing dates are moved in Q2 if downgrades are massive. Also, where is the precedent for visa bulletin not being issued until the 28th?

I would not bet on Eb2 filing dates movement. 90% of the EB2 downgrades will be after the date of May 15, 2011. Not a lot of folks who can file AOS directly will be willing to downgrade or have the support of their company. If my date was before May 15th, I would not have downgraded and put additional scrutiny on my application (with the current admin and constant rule changes).
10-28-2020, 09:11 AM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by aGCHopefull

Do they keep going back in circle? I was under impression they don't go back again to FB. Those visa # would most likely be lost.

They don't go back and forth in circles.

This may have been covered here but for FB, the FB limit is the maximum of 226000 or (480000 – IR + SO). IR is immediate relatives. So there are very less chances of EB spillover affecting FB and they will likely be wasted.

Maybe someone else can explain it better.
10-28-2020, 10:28 AM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

You are absolutely inflating the ROW case here. I want to add that context here to balance out your commentary here.

I was thinking the same. But EB3 -ROW includes Philippines , Skorea, Vietnam which were backlogged last year. And the way 7% country limit is determined is based on total visa and not per category ( Spectator explained it very well in a previous post)
So these three countries can avail a lot more visa through EB3 category ( with FB not being available through comsulate) and will eat out a lot of visa from EB3-ROW category .. and in turn will eat out an horizontal spillover to EB3-I. All I am saying that for EB-I , it will not be 30K-35K extra visas... it will be more like 10K-15K
10-28-2020, 10:29 AM
2001USA

Now that there are many of us filing I-485 (AOS), does anyone know how USCIS decides to prioritize processing them? Is it FIFO or do they prioritize AOS for those with current FAD?
10-28-2020, 10:32 AM
gcconnect

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

I was thinking the same. But EB3 -ROW includes Philippines , Skorea, Vietnam which were backlogged last year. And the way 7% country limit is determined is based on total visa and not per category ( Spectator explained it very well in a previous post)
So these three countries can avail a lot more visa through EB3 category ( with FB not being available through comsulate) and will eat out a lot of visa from EB3-ROW category .. and in turn will eat out an horizontal spillover to EB3-I. All I am saying that for EB-I , it will not be 30K-35K extra visas... it will be more like 10K-15K

If thats true, how the FD moved to 2015 for EB3I
10-28-2020, 10:40 AM
tomhagen

Quote:

Originally Posted by montyp80

Hang in there, I'm sure all centers are flooded with tons of applications so they're slow.

My employer confirmed that yesterday USCIS encashed the checks for both me and my wife. So hoping to get the receipt number soon.
10-28-2020, 10:41 AM
iamdeb

because they wanted more money from us w.r.t filing fees................
10-28-2020, 10:42 AM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcconnect

If thats true, how the FD moved to 2015 for EB3I

Based on estimated demand( which is zero). I am one of the people who have filed in EB3 thinking it is the best case scenario but gurus here have made several post to temper down the expectations. My observations are based on those posts
10-28-2020, 10:43 AM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by vsivarama

I would not bet on Eb2 filing dates movement. 90% of the EB2 downgrades will be after the date of May 15, 2011. Not a lot of folks who can file AOS directly will be willing to downgrade or have the support of their company. If my date was before May 15th, I would not have downgraded and put additional scrutiny on my application (with the current admin and constant rule changes).

But if ppl. had originally filed in Eb3 and then upgraded to EB2 later they could opt to adjust using the old EB3 petition without having to amend or file new in EB3. That's a less of a risk and I know people who are doing that. Only large companies are strict about this stuff. Good chunk of small and mid-tier companies are much more flexible. The trend line many attorneys are publishing now is that you can file a brand new AOS concurrently with your EB3 I-140 and retain both your Eb2 and EB3 positions in the line. This is why I believe that EB3 FAD will move faster for next 2-3 months but eventually EB2 has to catch-up once the downgrades kick-in and move in tandem (max. 3-4 months difference) in the FAD category. I think the panic filing in EB3 for mid-late 2010 PDs will heat-up once the EB3 FAD crosses spring 2010.
10-28-2020, 10:46 AM
rocketfast

A lot of larger companies that I know of is not filing medicals with the application to reduce their workload. This IMO will force USCIS to waste more GCs than they otherwise would have. A RFE from a place like texas service center pretty much means a 3 month delay.

If you observe trackitt approvals for the months of october, it is mostly EB1-I and EB3-I approvals this month with very few EB2-I being approved. All the EB2-I apps are stuck with medical RFEs.
10-28-2020, 10:48 AM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by rocketfast

A lot of larger companies that I know of is not filing medicals with the application to reduce their workload. This IMO will force USCIS to waste more GCs than they otherwise would have. A RFE from a place like texas service center pretty much means a 3 month delay.

If you observe trackitt approvals for the months of october, it is mostly EB1-I and EB3-I approvals this month with very few EB2-I being approved. All the EB2-I apps are stuck with medical RFEs.

And Why would EB3-I won't have medicals RFEs as such?
10-28-2020, 10:55 AM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by rocketfast

A lot of larger companies that I know of is not filing medicals with the application to reduce their workload. This IMO will force USCIS to waste more GCs than they otherwise would have. A RFE from a place like texas service center pretty much means a 3 month delay.

If you observe trackitt approvals for the months of october, it is mostly EB1-I and EB3-I approvals this month with very few EB2-I being approved. All the EB2-I apps are stuck with medical RFEs.

What is adding to the workload by adding a Medical. It is a form where the applicant is filling the minimal information and everything else is filled in and closed by the Doctors.
The only thing the lawyers need to do is add that sealed cover to the list of documents being sent. If we scheduled the docs appointment on time, the forms could have been handed over in a 10 days time (most cases) to the lawyers that would be time by which they can all align the paper work.
10-28-2020, 10:55 AM
AceMan

The advancement of Filing dates to materialize for this FY, the final action dates have to move drastically in the next 3 bulletins.

Eb2 I should be 1st March 2010 in November bulletin and
Eb3 I should be 1st March 2011
10-28-2020, 10:58 AM
rabp77

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

And Why would EB3-I won't have medicals RFEs as such?

Rocket fast is right.

Reason is most eb3 movement has happened in the last 2 years. So people who filed in eb3 with pd in late 2009/early 2010 still have valid medical with USCIS. With eb2 there is a much higher likelyhoon of the medicals having expired, as many eb2 cases were filed in 2012.
10-28-2020, 11:08 AM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I’m not sure what you mean by “all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year”

There isn’t a 7% limit for the category “All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed” (sometimes called ROW).

ROW refers to over 200 individual Countries, each of which has their own 7% limit.

If one (or more) of those Countries reaches their 7% limit, then they will be shown separately in the VB with their own Cut Off Dates.

ROW will retrogress in a category when the overall demand is more than overall visas available for that category in the FY.

If overall demand for ROW is less than the number of visas available to them, then horizontal spillover will occur.

As someone else has mentioned, the 7% allocation does not necessarily mean exact prorated numbers in each category.

The 7% figure is calculated based on the total EB & FB allocations
e.g. (271,500 + 226,000) * 7% = 34,825.

Lower use elsewhere can allow more use in a category, so long as total use across all categories (both EB & FB) does not exceed the total 7% figure.

You can't make the blanket statement of "those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year" because it doesn't quite work like that.

Only a handful of Countries even approach 7% overall use.

This is why EB3-ROW will consume a lot more than expected
10-28-2020, 11:16 AM
gcconnect

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

The advancement of Filing dates to materialize for this FY, the final action dates have to move drastically in the next 3 bulletins.

Eb2 I should be 1st March 2010 in November bulletin and
Eb3 I should be 1st March 2011

WOW. They may go like 2 to 3 months rather than one big jump for Final action dates.
10-28-2020, 11:40 AM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

This is why EB3-ROW will consume a lot more than expected

A lot of usage by Philippines, S. Korea etc. will be offset by low demand in EB3-ROW. I would keep an eye out on the perm applications being filed over the last few months as more and more companies are unwilling to commit long term with recession staring them right in the face.
10-28-2020, 11:45 AM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

They don't go back and forth in circles.

This may have been covered here but for FB, the FB limit is the maximum of 226000 or (480000 – IR + SO). IR is immediate relatives. So there are very less chances of EB spillover affecting FB and they will likely be wasted.

Maybe someone else can explain it better.

Unfortunately I am not able to find the source anymore for this. If someone has a credible information on this I would love to be wrong. But what I understood , every year the spillover moves from FB-EB and EB-FB ( only USCIS knows why ) . So if EB visa allotment of 261K is not reached this year the balance will go to FB as a spillover next year. Normally EB to FB spillover rarely happens as EB always comsumes 140K ( sometimes a couple thousand more even)
10-28-2020, 11:57 AM
rocketfast

For all practical purposes, the numbers that go from EB to FB are gone forever. The details are here:
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post64819
10-28-2020, 12:17 PM
gcconnect

Quote:

Originally Posted by rocketfast

For all practical purposes, the numbers that go from EB to FB are gone forever. The details are here:
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post64819

This is Special case. Here all FB numbers flown to EB because unable to process due to circumstances. so if the EB numbers go back to FB and unable to process, it should come back. Am i missing anything.
10-28-2020, 12:35 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcconnect

This is Special case. Here all FB numbers flown to EB because unable to process due to circumstances. so if the EB numbers go back to FB and unable to process, it should come back. Am i missing anything.

To my understanding only unallocated FB visas can flow to EB, not unallocated EBs which already went to FB. I will look for a source for that.
10-28-2020, 12:38 PM
rocketfast

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcconnect

This is Special case. Here all FB numbers flown to EB because unable to process due to circumstances. so if the EB numbers go back to FB and unable to process, it should come back. Am i missing anything.

The point that post is making is that, unused EBs don't make a change in total allocation numbers in FB. So for all practical purposes, total FB allocation is 226,000.
10-28-2020, 12:47 PM
2011Feb

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2011Feb

No... waiting.... Mine was sent on Oct 1st. Still waiting for receipt.
Mine is EB3 Feb 2011.

Received my receipts today. (sent on Oct 1st)
10-28-2020, 01:06 PM
2001USA

I-485 USCIS Prioritization

Now that there are many of us filing I-485 (AOS), does anyone know how USCIS decides to prioritize processing them? Is it FIFO or do they prioritize AOS based on applicants with current FAD?
10-28-2020, 01:22 PM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2011Feb

Received my receipts today. (sent on Oct 1st)

Congratulations.. how many days after the check clearing did they send you the notice if I may ask?
Currently the only indicator that I have for acceptance is that the checks have cleared.

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page