EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

As there is every likelihood that Cut Off Dates will move into 2007 this FY, I was looking at the likely number of PWMB.

I thought I would share my findings. I thinkthey are roughly in line with Teddy’s thinking, maybe slightly higher.

This is based on PERM approvals and the existing conversion rate to I-485 for 2006 and 2007 respectively. The numbers represent an average of the figures given using DOS Demand and USCIS Inventory figures.

PD 2006

There don’t appear to be many PD 2006 PWMB to come. Very few PERM approvals were after July 2007 and even fewer after September 2008, when EB2-IC had reached June 2006 for 3 months.
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Spec,
I wend back and looked at the PERM data, this time based on receipt number(PD).
I agree there may be only few with 2006 PD missed the boat. But, still PD to i485 factor is not even close?

2006 PERM Certification Data:
Total: 79.7k

INDIA - 22.3k
PD2005 - 8.2k
PD2006 - 14.1k

China - 6.7k
PD2005 - 2.8k
PD2006 - 3.9k

2007 PERM Certification Data:
Total: 85.1k

INDIA- 24.5k
PD2005 - 393
PD2006 - 11.4k
PD2007 -12.7k

China - 6.8k
PD2005 - 186
PD2006 - 3.0k
PD2007-3.6k

2008 PERM Certification Data:
Total: 49.2k

INDIA- 16.5k
PD2005 - 27
PD2006 - 108
PD2007 -8.3k
PD2008-8.0k

China - 3.3k
PD2005 - 8
PD2006 - 39
PD2007-1.9k
PD2008-1.4k

2009 PERM Certification Data:
Total: 29.5k

INDIA- 11.3k
PD2005 - 5
PD2006 - 54
PD2007 -962
PD2008-10.0k
PD2009-8

China - 2.1k
PD2005 - 0
PD2006 - 16
PD2007- 179
PD2008- 1.9k
PD2009- 2

2010 PERM Certification Data:
Total: 70.2k

INDIA- 28.9k
PD2005 - 1
PD2006 - 11
PD2007 - 1.0k
PD2008- 3.7k
PD2009- 15.0k
PD2010- 9.2k

China - 4.0k
PD2005 - 0
PD2006 - 3
PD2007- 198
PD2008- 666
PD2009- 2.2k
PD2010- 1.0k

India PD2006(EB2&3) = 14.1k+11.4k~=25.5k
Total EBI(2&3) i485(PD2006) pending=18.5+10.5=29.0k (from 05-27-2010 inventory update)

Assuming 15% denial/rejections, this will translate to 1.33?(PERM to i485)

China PD2006(EB2&3) = 3.9k+3.6k~=7.5k
Total EBC(2&3) i485(PD2006) pending=7.9+1.1=9.0k (from 05-27-2010 inventory update)
Assuming 15% denial/rejections, this will translate to 1.41?(PERM to i485)

I hope i am not making the same mistake again?:confused:

Spec

It does answer both my questions ... albeit the second one is a bit open.

As per the 33% .. yes I am convinved its a solid number for Jan-Jul 2007. I am not motivated enough right now to devote much time to this and figure out where my 7% came from. But one possibility is that 7% is the number of people who were already PERM approved yet couldn't for some reason file 485.

Regarding teh second question .... I think 33% would apply to china quite well (or for any other country for that matter since its a function of labor processing delays). The reason 33% would not show up in other countries is because those people already have had their date current and so are already processed. But as of July 2007 33% of ROW as well were PWMB given their PERM status.

However what I was indicating was that may be we should use all PERM data and try not to split into EB2 vs 3 while calculating PWMB. Also I wouldn't worry for now how many 485 each PERM generates. Thats immaterial since if we know 33% of PERMs missed boat then that means we should expect 33% more 485s as dates start moving into 2007. Makes sense?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

(1) At a macro level, I think the confidence level is quite high. Here is the breakdown - you judge.

PERM approvals for Indian PD of Jan-Jul 2007

FY2007 Oct-Jul - 8,868
FY2007 Aug-Sep - 3,227
FY2008 Oct-Sep - 941
FY2009 Oct-Sep - 307
FY2010 Oct Sep - 54

Total Jan-Jul 07 - 13,397

Jan-Jul 2007 after July 2007 - 4,529 or 33.81%

Some of the later FY approvals could be porting - that can't be ruled out. Before 2010, it just looks like audit/appeal cases finally being adjudicated.

For PDs of Aug-Dec 2007, total approved PERM is 9,624. Of these, the vast majority (7,394 or 76.83%) were approved in FY2008.

I don't think the split of EB2/EB3 will be much different for PWMB in 2007 compared to people who just managed to catch it in time. Therefore, I believe the assumption that X number of approved PERM translates in to Y number of EB2 I-485 remains valid for PDs of 2007. Others may feel differently - I accept that.

Beyond that, it would be dangerous to make that assumption for PDs after 2007.

We should always be aware there is a margin of error in any calculation where assumptions have to be made. I believe the ballpark numbers are correct, but within an error margin.

(2) I have deliberately not taken that approach, since the conversion rate for different Countries/Country Groups are possibly different. Rather, I have looked at China and India separately and individually, because only these Countries are retrogressed in EB2.

I can certainly calculate the numbers for all Countries - I will edit this post when I have done so to show the overall % of PERM approvals that appear to be PWMB.

You can look at either the DOS Demand Data or USCIS Inventory to see how many I-485s in EB2/3 were generated. Remember to account for CP when using USCIS figures. I used both and then averaged the numbers (DOS lower, USCIS higher).

Does that address your questions Q?

I look forward to people's insight. In many ways, I would like some fatal flaw to be exposed, or so that I can refine my methodology.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec

It does answer both my questions ... albeit the second one is a bit open.

As per the 33% .. yes I am convinved its a solid number for Jan-Jul 2007. I am not motivated enough right now to devote much time to this and figure out where my 7% came from. But one possibility is that 7% is the number of people who were already PERM approved yet couldn't for some reason file 485.

Regarding teh second question .... I think 33% would apply to china quite well (or for any other country for that matter since its a function of labor processing delays). The reason 33% would not show up in other countries is because those people already have had their date current and so are already processed. But as of July 2007 33% of ROW as well were PWMB given their PERM status.

However what I was indicating was that may be we should use all PERM data and try not to split into EB2 vs 3 while calculating PWMB. Also I wouldn't worry for now how many 485 each PERM generates. Thats immaterial since if we know 33% of PERMs missed boat then that means we should expect 33% more 485s as dates start moving into 2007. Makes sense?

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Q,

Makes sense.

I tried to show what the I-485 effect might be so that people understood the implications of the figures. Many people understand I-485 numbers better than PERM or are unsure what factor to use, so I gave one scenario.

In truth, we almost certainly won't see those numbers (whatever they are) this year, but they will be a factor in how far FY2012 SOFAD takes the Cut Off Dates next year. It also illustrates the true impact of July 2007 being Current.

I certainly don't want to be prescriptive about one particular methodology.

Q, Spec and Others,

I lost myself in the plethora of info and data provided by every one and unable to convert them to knowledge to attain wisdom.

I feel that you may be knowledgeable now to advise wisdom to every one.

Please advise whether you plan to revise your predictions?

Thanks
gcw07

Quote of the day: Too much Info is crap; Info becomes Data when some meaningful assimilation is made out of info; Data becomes Knowledge when you are able to analyze; Knowledge becomes Wisdom when you are able to make decisions based on the knowledge.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec

It does answer both my questions ... albeit the second one is a bit open.

As per the 33% .. yes I am convinved its a solid number for Jan-Jul 2007. I am not motivated enough right now to devote much time to this and figure out where my 7% came from. But one possibility is that 7% is the number of people who were already PERM approved yet couldn't for some reason file 485.

Regarding teh second question .... I think 33% would apply to china quite well (or for any other country for that matter since its a function of labor processing delays). The reason 33% would not show up in other countries is because those people already have had their date current and so are already processed. But as of July 2007 33% of ROW as well were PWMB given their PERM status.

However what I was indicating was that may be we should use all PERM data and try not to split into EB2 vs 3 while calculating PWMB. Also I wouldn't worry for now how many 485 each PERM generates. Thats immaterial since if we know 33% of PERMs missed boat then that means we should expect 33% more 485s as dates start moving into 2007. Makes sense?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

Makes sense.

I tried to show what the I-485 effect might be so that people understood the implications of the figures. Many people understand I-485 numbers better than PERM or are unsure what factor to use, so I gave one scenario.

In truth, we almost certainly won't see those numbers (whatever they are) this year, but they will be a factor in how far FY2012 SOFAD takes the Cut Off Dates next year. It also illustrates the true impact of July 2007 being Current.

I certainly don't want to be prescriptive about one particular methodology.

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Q & Spec,
Here is the PWMB for EBI-2006&2007 - from FY2007-2010 PERM Disclosure data.

EBI (2&3) PD2006 approvals from JULY 2007 to Sept 2010
FY 2007= 83
FY2008= 108
FY2009= 54
FY2010=11
Total= 256 only

EBI (2&3) PD2007 PERM approvals after JULY 2007 are as follows

------------Approved in FY (after July 2007)-----------
------------2007---2008----- 2009---Total-----%------
Jan 2007---30------ 22------- 9-------61------- 0.46%
Feb 2007---52-------45--------20------117-------0.89%
Mar 2007---119-----46--------14------179-------1.36%
Apr 2007----155-----79--------36------270-------2.05%
May2007----369----110-------38------517-------3.93%
Jun2007---493-----283-------41------817-------6.21%
Jul 2007----441----469-------141-----1,051----7.99%
Aug 2007---561----939-------220-----1,720----13.07%
Sept2007--434----1,606-----245-----2,285----17.37%
Oct 2007---793----1,686-----138-----2,617----19.89%
Nov2007---328----1,557-----30------ 1,609----14.55%
Dec 2007-- 76------1,503-----30------ 1,609----12.23%
Total-----3,851--8,345-----962----13,158---100%

Looking at the data there are only 14.9 %(1.9k) of EBI (2&3) with PD before JULY 2007 are approved after July 2007, you do the split between EB2&3, apply the factors for i140&i485 to get the PWMB numbers.

50% of the 2007 PWMB for IND are in the months of Aug-Sept-Oct of 2007.

Bottom line is, there are about 13.3k EBI (2&3) PERM applications got certified after July 2007 with PD until Sept 2007, this number include porting (at that time). I assume EBC situation will be proportional and USCIS may not see any PWMB impact until EB2I&C PD is moved into June 2007.

Based on the processing time PWMB cases will not get a number from FY 2011, USCIS may have to move dates at least to JULY 2007 to fully utilize all SOFAD numbers this year, but based on PWMB applications, they have to move dates back to APRIL 2007 in OCTOBER2011!

Let me know what your thoughts/predictions/updates!

Veni,

I agree with your PD 2006 figure of 256.

For 2007, I am not sure why you ended at Sept 2007, nor why Oct-Dec 2006 are included. The figures seem to represent something else.

Here is my table for Jan-Dec 2007 PD, including approvals in FY2010 as well. As with yours, FY2007 approvals are for post July 2007.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % 2007 - % Jan-Jul
Jan-07 --- 46 ------ 22 ------ 9 ------ 1 ----- 78 --- 0.55% ---- 1.72%
Feb-07 -- 100 ------ 34 ----- 17 ------ 5 ---- 156 --- 1.10% ---- 3.44%
Mar-07 -- 210 ------ 45 ----- 15 ------ 3 ---- 273 --- 1.93% ---- 6.03%
Apr-07 -- 559 ------ 56 ----- 23 ------ 2 ---- 640 --- 4.52% --- 14.13%
May-07 -- 660 ----- 118 ----- 42 ------ 7 ---- 827 --- 5.84% --- 18.26%
Jun-07 -- 682 ----- 244 ----- 53 ----- 12 ---- 991 --- 7.00% --- 21.88%
Jul-07 -- 970 ----- 422 ---- 148 ----- 24 -- 1,564 -- 11.05% --- 34.53%
Aug-07 -- 548 ----- 951 ---- 215 ----- 70 -- 1,784 -- 12.61%
Sep-07 --- 76 --- 1,459 ---- 244 ----- 86 -- 1,865 -- 13.18%
Oct-07 ---- 0 --- 1,789 ---- 136 ---- 244 -- 2,169 -- 15.33%
Nov-07 ---- 0 --- 1,584 ----- 31 ---- 323 -- 1,938 -- 13.69%
Dec-07 ---- 0 --- 1,611 ----- 29 ---- 228 -- 1,868 -- 13.20%
Total - 3,851 --- 8,335 ---- 962 -- 1,005 - 14,153 - 100.00% -- 100.00%

Until the end of the current backlog, there are very few PWMB before April 2007 although they gradually increase. April,May and June are at a higher increasing level, but the largest concentration is in July.

June and July account for over 56% of PWMB and May-July account for virtually 75% of PWMB.

Past the current backlog, demand continues at or slightly above the July PWMB level.

PWMB for Jan-July 2007 only represents slightly more than 30% of people waiting to file in CY2007. The biggest concentration is in the Aug-Dec 2007 period.

It seems inevitable that if DOS have to push the Cut Off Dates forward to capture enough Porting and CP cases to use available SOFAD, then the dates will likely retrogress when the true demand becomes apparent.

I agree that it is now very difficult to see "normal" additions ready for adjudication if USCIS does not dramatically and unexpectedly increase processing efficiency. The flip side of that happening is that more EB2-ROW would probably be approved as well.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

I agree with your PD 2006 figure of 256.

For 2007, I am not sure why you ended at Sept 2007, nor why Oct-Dec 2006 are included. The figures seem to represent something else.

Here is my table for Jan-Dec 2007 PD, including approvals in FY2010 as well. As with yours, FY2007 approvals are for post July 2007.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % 2007 - % Jan-Jul
Jan-07 --- 46 ------ 22 ------ 9 ------ 1 ----- 78 --- 0.55% ---- 1.72%
Feb-07 -- 100 ------ 34 ----- 17 ------ 5 ---- 156 --- 1.10% ---- 3.44%
Mar-07 -- 210 ------ 45 ----- 15 ------ 3 ---- 273 --- 1.93% ---- 6.03%
Apr-07 -- 559 ------ 56 ----- 23 ------ 2 ---- 640 --- 4.52% --- 14.13%
May-07 -- 660 ----- 118 ----- 42 ------ 7 ---- 827 --- 5.84% --- 18.26%
Jun-07 -- 682 ----- 244 ----- 53 ----- 12 ---- 991 --- 7.00% --- 21.88%
Jul-07 -- 970 ----- 422 ---- 148 ----- 24 -- 1,564 -- 11.05% --- 34.53%
Aug-07 -- 548 ----- 951 ---- 215 ----- 70 -- 1,784 -- 12.61%
Sep-07 --- 76 --- 1,459 ---- 244 ----- 86 -- 1,865 -- 13.18%
Oct-07 ---- 0 --- 1,789 ---- 136 ---- 244 -- 2,169 -- 15.33%
Nov-07 ---- 0 --- 1,584 ----- 31 ---- 323 -- 1,938 -- 13.69%
Dec-07 ---- 0 --- 1,611 ----- 29 ---- 228 -- 1,868 -- 13.20%
Total - 3,851 --- 8,335 ---- 962 -- 1,005 - 14,153 - 100.00% -- 100.00%

Until the end of the current backlog, there are very few PWMB before April 2007 although they gradually increase. April,May and June are at a higher increasing level, but the largest concentration is in July.

June and July account for over 56% of PWMB and May-July account for virtually 75% of PWMB.

Past the current backlog, demand continues at or slightly above the July PWMB level.

PWMB for Jan-July 2007 only represents slightly more than 30% of people waiting to file in CY2007. The biggest concentration is in the Aug-Dec 2007 period.

It seems inevitable that if DOS have to push the Cut Off Dates forward to capture enough Porting and CP cases to use available SOFAD, then the dates will likely retrogress when the true demand becomes apparent.

We are on the same page, great.

I agree that it is now very difficult to see "normal" additions ready for adjudication if USCIS does not dramatically and unexpectedly increase processing efficiency. The flip side of that happening is that more EB2-ROW would probably be approved as well.

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Spec,
Thanks, i forgot to include PD2007 approvals from FY 2010, which i included below

-----------EBI(2&3) PERM Certifications (after July 2007)-------
------------2007----2008----2009---2010------Total------%------
Jan 2007---30------ 22 ------- 9-------1----------62---------0.44%
Feb 2007--- 52-------45--------20------5---------122--------0.86%
Mar 2007--- 119-----46--------14-------3---------182--------1.29%
Apr 2007----155-----79--------36-------3---------273- -------1.93%
May 2007----369----110------- 38-------6---------523--------3.69%
Jun 2007---493-----283-------41------ 12---------829-------5.85%
Jul 2007----441----469------- 141-----17--------1,068------7.54%
Aug 2007---561----939------- 220-----52---------1,772---- 12.51%
Sept2007--434----1,606----- 245-----88---------2,373---- 16.75%
Oct 2007--- 793----1,686----- 138----220--------2,837----16.75%
Nov 2007--- 328----1,557----- 30------291-------2,206-----15.58%
Dec 2007-- 76------1,503-----30------307--------1,916----13.58%
Total----3,851----8,345-----962---1,005-----14,163----100%

Sorry, table is not that great, i have hard time with it.

Also there are 25 EBI(2&3) PD 2007 certifications from Q1FY2011.

GCW

What it boils down to is - Spec's calculations show that PWMB might be 33% as opposed to 7% I had assumed. . The difference comes from teh fact that the 7% only relates to people who already had perm approved. The rest 26% were approved post Jul 2007.

So between Jan-Jul 2007 instead of 1.5K per month on average, the number is really 2K. So as the dates move ahead these extra 500 per month people will start filing.

For those not concerned with details ... essentially this is going to add 3.5K in PWMB (or about 2 months impact to our calculations). Header updated accordingly.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

Q, Spec and Others,

I lost myself in the plethora of info and data provided by every one and unable to convert them to knowledge to attain wisdom.

I feel that you may be knowledgeable now to advise wisdom to every one.

Please advise whether you plan to revise your predictions?

Thanks
gcw07

Quote of the day: Too much Info is crap; Info becomes Data when some meaningful assimilation is made out of info; Data becomes Knowledge when you are able to analyze; Knowledge becomes Wisdom when you are able to make decisions based on the knowledge.

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That is some excellent data mining work. I am guessing it adds more "headwind" for those with PD in 2007 and beyond. I am also wondering how many more hidden ghosts are there and will appear as time progresses. Thanks again for that excellent and, I suppose, strenuous work.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by anuran

That is some excellent data mining work. I am guessing it adds more "headwind" for those with PD in 2007 and beyond. I am also wondering how many more hidden ghosts are there and will appear as time progresses. Thanks again for that excellent and, I suppose, strenuous work.

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anuran,
That's right, about 17.4k EBI&C PERM certifications after JULY 2007 with PD in 2007, we are talking about an additional 20k(just in FY 2007) EB2(I&C) PWMB cases awaiting to file i485, in addition to porting numbers.

veni - thanks for the number crunching. But is it 17.4k perm certifications after July 2007 for the FY 2007 OR for the calendar year 2007. If it is for the latter, wouldn't be too concerned as we would be double counting some certifications from FY 08 (which has shown reduced EB2 IC perm anyway). If it is the former, then it is a REAL headwind to movement.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vishnu

veni - thanks for the number crunching. But is it 17.4k perm certifications after July 2007 for the FY 2007 OR for the calendar year 2007. If it is for the latter, wouldn't be too concerned as we would be double counting some certifications from FY 08 (which has shown reduced EB2 IC perm anyway). If it is the former, then it is a REAL headwind to movement.

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vishnu,
I am taking it as FY, assuming PERM disclosure data represents federal fiscal year, unless other gurus tell otherwise.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

GCW

What it boils down to is - Spec's calculations show that PWMB might be 33% as opposed to 7% I had assumed. . The difference comes from teh fact that the 7% only relates to people who already had perm approved. The rest 26% were approved post Jul 2007.

So between Jan-Jul 2007 instead of 1.5K per month on average, the number is really 2K. So as the dates move ahead these extra 500 per month people will start filing.

For those not concerned with details ... essentially this is going to add 3.5K in PWMB (or about 2 months impact to our calculations). Header updated accordingly.

---

Q,

Thanks for turning the calculations into an easy to understand summary.

For IC combined, the average appears to increase from 2.1k per month to 3.1k per month over Jan-Jul 2007.

As has been noted, this is lowest in Jan (2.3k) to highest in July (5.7k), so we might theoretically reach March 2007 with 37k SOFAD.

Since DOS probably won't see this extra demand, because of the processing time for new applications, they would have to consider pushing the Cut Off Dates beyond that date to include enough applications that can be adjudicated before the end of September.

Moving into FY2012, DOS would then have to consider whether to retrogress the Cut Off Dates as USCIS report demand to them.

Is that a fair statement?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

vishnu,
I am taking it as FY, assuming PERM disclosure data represents federal fiscal year, unless other gurus tell otherwise.

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Veni,

The PERM disclosure data is indeed for the FY October to September. That is for the date of adjudication (Certified, Denied, Withdrawn).

However, Priority Dates (extracted from the Case No.) are Calendar Year (Jan-Dec).

So the approval period may be different, but the PD doesn't change. The dates in the Demand Data and, more importantly, in the Visa Bulletin are CY.

I still probably haven't explained that very well.

Regards

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vishnu

veni - thanks for the number crunching. But is it 17.4k perm certifications after July 2007 for the FY 2007 OR for the calendar year 2007. If it is for the latter, wouldn't be too concerned as we would be double counting some certifications from FY 08 (which has shown reduced EB2 IC perm anyway). If it is the former, then it is a REAL headwind to movement.

vishnu,
I am taking it as FY, assuming PERM disclosure data represents federal fiscal year, unless other gurus tell otherwise.

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vishnu,
It is CY not FY, Spec corrected me on this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

The PERM disclosure data is indeed for the FY October to September. That is for the date of adjudication (Certified, Denied, Withdrawn).

However, Priority Dates (extracted from the Case No.) are Calendar Year (Jan-Dec).

So the approval period may be different, but the PD doesn't change. The dates in the Demand Data and, more importantly, in the Visa Bulletin are CY.

I still probably haven't explained that very well.

Regards

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Spec,
Thanks for clarifying, i will make changes to my posts above.
Oct-06---Spet 07 will now become Jan 07 to Dec 07.

Spec

Yes. Agree. USCIS may choose to move dates a bit ahead to have enough applications. So yes the date could actually by Mar or even April.

I also think that if dates start pushing towards July 2007 then there is a strong possibility they might actually make the category current for a month and then pull it back. But of course there is a huge difference between Mar and Jul 07!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

Thanks for turning the calculations into an easy to understand summary.

For IC combined, the average appears to increase from 2.1k per month to 3.1k per month over Jan-Jul 2007.

As has been noted, this is lowest in Jan (2.3k) to highest in July (5.7k), so we might theoretically reach March 2007 with 37k SOFAD.

Since DOS probably won't see this extra demand, because of the processing time for new applications, they would have to consider pushing the Cut Off Dates beyond that date to include enough applications that can be adjudicated before the end of September.

Moving into FY2012, DOS would then have to consider whether to retrogress the Cut Off Dates as USCIS report demand to them.

Is that a fair statement?

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Q, Spec, Teddy and others..

Here is my table for Jan-Dec 2007 PD fro CHINA based on PERM certifications from AUG 2007 to SEPT FY2010.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % --
Jan-07 --- 12 ------ 7 ------ 8 ------ 0 ----- 27 --- 0.82%
Feb-07 --- 26 ------ 8 ------ 5 ------ 0 ----- 39 --- 1.19%
Mar-07 --- 48 ------ 10 ------ 3 ------ 1 ----- 62 --- 1.89%
Apr-07 -- 158 ------ 20 ------ 1 ------ 1 ---- 180 --- 5.48%
May-07 -- 133 ------ 19 ------ 7 ------ 4 ---- 163 --- 4.96%
Jun-07 -- 174 ------ 64 ----- 16 ------ 1 ---- 255 --- 7.76%
Jul-07 -- 155 ------ 81 ----- 19 ------ 2 ---- 257 --- 7.83%
Aug-07 -- 250 ----- 222 ----- 39 ----- 10 ---- 521 -- 15.86%
Sep-07 --- 35 ----- 352 ----- 58 ----- 28 ---- 473 -- 14.40%
Oct-07 ---- 0 ----- 398 ----- 12 ----- 42 ---- 452 -- 13.76%
Nov-07 ---- 0 ----- 433 ------ 5 ----- 54 ---- 492 -- 14.98%
Dec-07 ---- 0 ----- 302 ------ 6 ----- 55 ---- 363 -- 11.05%
Total --- 991 --- 1,916 ---- 179 ---- 198 -- 3,284 - 100.00%


Spec: I just copied your table format, since it looks good! Hope you don't mind.

I am working on getting expected PWMB i485 for EB2(I&C) for each month of CY 2007 based on above table for CHINA and Specs table for INDIA.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q, Spec, Teddy and others..

Here is my table for Jan-Dec 2007 PD fro CHINA based on PERM certifications from AUG 2007 to SEPT FY2010.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % --
Jan-07 --- 12 ------ 7 ------ 8 ------ 0 ----- 27 --- 0.82%
Feb-07 --- 26 ------ 8 ------ 5 ------ 0 ----- 39 --- 1.19%
Mar-07 --- 48 ------ 10 ------ 3 ------ 1 ----- 62 --- 1.89%
Apr-07 -- 158 ------ 20 ------ 1 ------ 1 ---- 180 --- 5.48%
May-07 -- 133 ------ 19 ------ 7 ------ 4 ---- 163 --- 4.96%
Jun-07 -- 174 ------ 64 ----- 16 ------ 1 ---- 255 --- 7.76%
Jul-07 -- 155 ------ 81 ----- 19 ------ 2 ---- 257 --- 7.83%
Aug-07 -- 250 ----- 222 ----- 39 ----- 10 ---- 521 -- 15.86%
Sep-07 --- 35 ----- 352 ----- 58 ----- 28 ---- 473 -- 14.40%
Oct-07 ---- 0 ----- 398 ----- 12 ----- 42 ---- 452 -- 13.76%
Nov-07 ---- 0 ----- 433 ------ 5 ----- 54 ---- 492 -- 14.98%
Dec-07 ---- 0 ----- 302 ------ 6 ----- 55 ---- 363 -- 11.05%
Total --- 991 --- 1,916 ---- 179 ---- 198 -- 3,284 - 100.00%


Spec: I just copied your table format, since it looks good! Hope you don't mind.

I am working on getting expected PWMB i485 for EB2(I&C) for each month of CY 2007 based on above table for CHINA and Specs table for INDIA.

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Veni,

Good work. :D

I don't know why, but I agree with the bottom line figures whilst the monthly breakdown is slightly different. :confused:

It is only a few applications either way, so it doesn't matter.

Here is my China table for reference:

CHINA

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % 2007 - % Jan-Jul
Jan-07 --- 12 ------- 7 ------ 8 ------ 0 ----- 27 --- 0.82% ---- 2.54%
Feb-07 --- 25 ------- 8 ------ 5 ------ 0 ----- 38 --- 1.16% ---- 3.57%
Mar-07 --- 49 ------ 10 ------ 3 ------ 1 ----- 63 --- 1.92% ---- 5.92%
Apr-07 -- 143 ------ 15 ------ 1 ------ 1 ---- 160 --- 4.87% --- 15.04%
May-07 -- 144 ------ 23 ------ 7 ------ 4 ---- 178 --- 5.42% --- 16.73%
Jun-07 -- 156 ------ 59 ----- 15 ------ 1 ---- 231 --- 7.03% --- 21.71%
Jul-07 -- 236 ----- 101 ----- 28 ------ 2 ---- 367 -- 11.18% --- 34.49%
Aug-07 -- 202 ----- 238 ----- 36 ----- 15 ---- 491 -- 14.95%
Sep-07 --- 24 ----- 322 ----- 53 ----- 23 ---- 422 -- 12.85%
Oct-07 ---- 0 ----- 398 ----- 12 ----- 42 ---- 452 -- 13.76%
Nov-07 ---- 0 ----- 432 ------ 4 ----- 53 ---- 489 -- 14.89%
Dec-07 ---- 0 ----- 303 ------ 7 ----- 56 ---- 366 -- 11.14%
Total --- 991 --- 1,916 ---- 179 ---- 198 -- 3,284 - 100.00% -- 100.00%

It just bugs the hell out of me that we don't agree exactly. That is my problem, not yours! :)

PS I used Courier New font because it is non-proportional and the figures therefore line up correctly.

I am having some difficulty these days with formatting posts in different fonts. I used to be able to highlight the text and apply it in the forum editing window. I suspect it has to do with moving to IE9, but even using IE8 mode doesn't fix it. I have to format outside the forum and then paste it in - it's a pain.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
Since we saw about 60% decrease in overall EB1 filings, not sure if we can assume at least 50% of the EBI PERMs are for those EB1s now filing in EB2? this will be a big factor when comes to porting calculations?



Teddy,
My median salary comparison is only from EBI PERMs, if most of these ERMs from FY2011 are new (otherwise filed in EB1 cases), i don't think we will have very many porting cases from Q1 FY2011 data?

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Veni EB1 as such does not require perm. However with the way things are I believe most attorneys may already be advising ROW folks to file in EB2. However since the difference between EB2 and EB1 salaries may not be that much in most cases it will be hard to figure out from the perm data as to how many ROW folks are now trying for EB2. As for the retrogressed countries if EB1 is possible its always worth the try.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
- Traditionally also people who apply for EB1 A & B also have been filing a EB2 or EB2 NIW application just in case. That may be true for some. However wouldnt employers be averse to filing both - especially when EB2 is so difficult given all the perm requirements?

For those from ROW EB1 is faster because of no labor requirement - EB1 doesn't have any labor for all countries. So didnt understand ....

- On another side the salaries in research are not eye poppingly high - True and not true. Typically the salaries would be 20-30K higher. Depending on the industry they could be higher or lower than this range. However one more thing that needs to be considered is that the EB1 salaries we are talking here is a subset of the overall research salaries ... so while overall EB1 salaries may not be that eye poppingly high, the EB1 here could actually be. e.g. even for H1 or EB2 a company has to prove that they are paying equivalent or more money to the candidate BECAUSE there are fewer people who could do this job. Similarly for EB1 (except there is no labor.... but the pay philosophy applies). Think this way.... why would a US company hire somebody and go through filing GC unless the person isn't in top 5% of the similar pool. And if so ... wouldn't you expect teh salary to be at least 10-20% higher?


So while it maybe true that folks from ROW maybe tending to EB2 for safety from the perm data it is not possible to decipher or quantify this but surely this is happening as getting EB1 approvals after the Kazarian memo is tougher. I think this certainly makes sense.

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Q here we are talking about EB1 A & B most of then are either PhD holders or superspecialised doctors. Getting a EB2 perm or I140 for them is like a piece of cake. I agree with your point that companies would not be very open to file 2 applications however the split between Eb1 A and B is 50-50 and EB1A is a self filed application typically most EB1-A folks file another EB2 application through their employer or EB2-NIW on their own. You may remember kondur_007. Some organizations also reimburse a fixed amount and give people to chose their own attorney, this is typically the case in academia. Salaries could be a function of many things like location, demand etc in the current time the core engineering research jobs are not too many and they are mostly in Tier B or C locations not in the hot and costly cities this is why the salaries become comparable, for people in niche high end and in demand skills sky is the limit. For people in academia the salaries are moderate they do not really compare with the industry

If we look at Trackitt EB1 data this year the fall is drastic for EB1 A and significant for EB1 B which we can truely attribute to the Kazarian memo. However since for Eb1 really no way of estimation has proven good we should be using the 12K as the minimum from all the reports.

Spec & Veni thanks for your analysis on PWMB. Looking at your table can we conclude that the PWMB figure till 01-Aug -2007 is in the 5-6K range. For my approximations I had done the computation based on the fact that it was taking 1-4 months for perm approval so the number of PWMB's before April will be very few. Your analysis on the PWMB's also indicates that there is virtually no traffic in 2009 and 2010 this could be great news once the date actually crosses 2008.

Q I agree with you that there is a huge difference between Apr 2007 and Jul 2007 I certainly agree that Apr 2007 is quite possible but to make it Jul 2007 still requires a big push. At the header of the thread I believe you can consider revising the worst case scenario from Sep 2006 I think that will be breached for sure, maybe Nov 2006 is still quite conservative.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Veni EB1 as such does not require perm. However with the way things are I believe most attorneys may already be advising ROW folks to file in EB2. However since the difference between EB2 and EB1 salaries may not be that much in most cases it will be hard to figure out from the perm data as to how many ROW folks are now trying for EB2. As for the retrogressed countries if EB1 is possible its always worth the try.
......................
.......................
.

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Teddy,
Yes, we are all in agreement with this now.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

Good work. :D

I don't know why, but I agree with the bottom line figures whilst the monthly breakdown is slightly different. :confused:

It is only a few applications either way, so it doesn't matter.

Here is my China table for reference:

CHINA

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % 2007 - % Jan-Jul
Jan-07 --- 12 ------- 7 ------ 8 ------ 0 ----- 27 --- 0.82% ---- 2.54%
Feb-07 --- 25 ------- 8 ------ 5 ------ 0 ----- 38 --- 1.16% ---- 3.57%
Mar-07 --- 49 ------ 10 ------ 3 ------ 1 ----- 63 --- 1.92% ---- 5.92%
Apr-07 -- 143 ------ 15 ------ 1 ------ 1 ---- 160 --- 4.87% --- 15.04%
May-07 -- 144 ------ 23 ------ 7 ------ 4 ---- 178 --- 5.42% --- 16.73%
Jun-07 -- 156 ------ 59 ----- 15 ------ 1 ---- 231 --- 7.03% --- 21.71%
Jul-07 -- 236 ----- 101 ----- 28 ------ 2 ---- 367 -- 11.18% --- 34.49%
Aug-07 -- 202 ----- 238 ----- 36 ----- 15 ---- 491 -- 14.95%
Sep-07 --- 24 ----- 322 ----- 53 ----- 23 ---- 422 -- 12.85%
Oct-07 ---- 0 ----- 398 ----- 12 ----- 42 ---- 452 -- 13.76%
Nov-07 ---- 0 ----- 432 ------ 4 ----- 53 ---- 489 -- 14.89%
Dec-07 ---- 0 ----- 303 ------ 7 ----- 56 ---- 366 -- 11.14%
Total --- 991 --- 1,916 ---- 179 ---- 198 -- 3,284 - 100.00% -- 100.00%

It just bugs the hell out of me that we don't agree exactly. That is my problem, not yours! :)

PS I used Courier New font because it is non-proportional and the figures therefore line up correctly.

I am having some difficulty these days with formatting posts in different fonts. I used to be able to highlight the text and apply it in the forum editing window. I suspect it has to do with moving to IE9, but even using IE8 mode doesn't fix it. I have to format outside the forum and then paste it in - it's a pain.

I am doing the same now. :)

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Spec,
Not huge difference in the monthly distributions, so we are OK!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q, Spec, Teddy and others..

Here is my table for Jan-Dec 2007 PD fro CHINA based on PERM certifications from AUG 2007 to SEPT FY2010.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % --
Jan-07 --- 12 ------ 7 ------ 8 ------ 0 ----- 27 --- 0.82%
Feb-07 --- 26 ------ 8 ------ 5 ------ 0 ----- 39 --- 1.19%
Mar-07 --- 48 ------ 10 ------ 3 ------ 1 ----- 62 --- 1.89%
Apr-07 -- 158 ------ 20 ------ 1 ------ 1 ---- 180 --- 5.48%
May-07 -- 133 ------ 19 ------ 7 ------ 4 ---- 163 --- 4.96%
Jun-07 -- 174 ------ 64 ----- 16 ------ 1 ---- 255 --- 7.76%
Jul-07 -- 155 ------ 81 ----- 19 ------ 2 ---- 257 --- 7.83%
Aug-07 -- 250 ----- 222 ----- 39 ----- 10 ---- 521 -- 15.86%
Sep-07 --- 35 ----- 352 ----- 58 ----- 28 ---- 473 -- 14.40%
Oct-07 ---- 0 ----- 398 ----- 12 ----- 42 ---- 452 -- 13.76%
Nov-07 ---- 0 ----- 433 ------ 5 ----- 54 ---- 492 -- 14.98%
Dec-07 ---- 0 ----- 302 ------ 6 ----- 55 ---- 363 -- 11.05%
Total --- 991 --- 1,916 ---- 179 ---- 198 -- 3,284 - 100.00%


Spec: I just copied your table format, since it looks good! Hope you don't mind.

I am working on getting expected PWMB i485 for EB2(I&C) for each month of CY 2007 based on above table for CHINA and Specs table for INDIA.

---

Q, Spec, Teddy and others.... below is my update on PWMB i485 numbers

Looking at PERM Certifications and i485 pending for JAN-JULY 2007 for INDIA and CHINA

INDIA:
JAN-JULY PERM = 8.9k
JAN-JULY i485 = 9.9k(EB2)+4.6k(EB3) = 14.5k

Based on above PERM&i485 data, split between EB2 & EB3 is 68%(EB2) and 32%(EB3)

CHINA:
JAN-JULY PERM = 2.6k
JAN-JULY i485 = 5.5k(EB2)+0.6k(EB3) = 6.1k

Based on above PERM&i485 data, split between EB2 & EB3 is 90%(EB2) and 10%(EB3)

I am using the same % from above and 15% denial/rejections at i140 stage to derive expected EB2(I&C)i-485 for each month of CY 2007 in the table below(based on EB(I&C) PWMB PERM data).


- PD ---- EB2I ---- EB2C ---- EB2(I+C) -- Cumulative--
Jan-07 ---- 99 ------ 45 ------ 145 -------- 145
Feb-07 --- 198 ------ 66 ------ 264 -------- 409
Mar-07 --- 347 ----- 104 ------ 451 -------- 860
Apr-07 --- 814 ----- 303 -----1,117 ------ 1,977
May-07 --1,052 ----- 274 -----1,326 ------ 3,303
Jun-07 --1,260 ----- 429 -----1,689 ------ 4,992
Jul-07 --1,989 ----- 433 -----2,421 ------ 7,413
Aug-07 --2,269 ----- 877 -----3,145 ----- 10,559
Sep-07 --2,372 ----- 796 -----3,168 ----- 13,726
Oct-07 --2,758 ----- 761 -----3,519 ----- 17,245
Nov-07 --2,464 ----- 828 -----3,292 ----- 20,538
Dec-07 --2,375 ----- 611 -----2,986 ----- 23,524
Total ---17,997 --- 5,527 ---23,524


These numbers represent only those PERM approvals after July 2007 with 2007PD. We have to add those who got their PERM certified before AUG 2007
and did not file i485, spouse yet to file i485 and porting numbers. The first two numbers may not be very significant though!

So the bottom line is USCIS will not see PWMB impact until dates move to 01MAY2007 or 01JUN2007 for both IND and CHINA. Unless porting cases are really high, as
some people(including DOS/USCIS) predicting, dates should move in the final quarter as predicted before!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Spec & Veni thanks for your analysis on PWMB. Looking at your table can we conclude that the PWMB figure till 01-Aug -2007 is in the 5-6K range. For my approximations I had done the computation based on the fact that it was taking 1-4 months for perm approval so the number of PWMB's before April will be very few. Your analysis on the PWMB's also indicates that there is virtually no traffic in 2009 and 2010 this could be great news once the date actually crosses 2008.

Teddy looks like you are mistaken looking at just PD 2007 PERM certifications in 2008 & 2009, Below is EB (I&C) PERM certification with PD 2008 & PD 2009
India PD2008 = 8.0k+10.0k+3.7k~=21.7k -------------------India PD2009 = 8+15.0k+92~=15.1k
China PD2008 = 1.4k+1.9k+0.7K~=4.0k ----------------------China PD2009 = 2+2.2k+9=2.2k


Q I agree with you that there is a huge difference between Apr 2007 and Jul 2007 I certainly agree that Apr 2007 is quite possible but to make it Jul 2007 still requires a big push. At the header of the thread I believe you can consider revising the worst case scenario from Sep 2006 I think that will be breached for sure, maybe Nov 2006 is still quite conservative.

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Teddy,
It is about 7-8k, see the table i have posted.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Q I agree with you that there is a huge difference between Apr 2007 and Jul 2007 I certainly agree that Apr 2007 is quite possible but to make it Jul 2007 still requires a big push. At the header of the thread I believe you can consider revising the worst case scenario from Sep 2006 I think that will be breached for sure, maybe Nov 2006 is still quite conservative.

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Teddy .. the worst case scenario is 24K gross SOFAD. With porting it becomes about 20K net sofad which probably takes us through Sep or Oct 2006 (based on 1oct2010 inventory). But of course the probability is quite low. Most likely scenario is 37K gross sofad and 30K net which means may be Feb or Mar 2007.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Spec & Veni thanks for your analysis on PWMB. Looking at your table can we conclude that the PWMB figure till 01-Aug -2007 is in the 5-6K range. For my approximations I had done the computation based on the fact that it was taking 1-4 months for perm approval so the number of PWMB's before April will be very few. Your analysis on the PWMB's also indicates that there is virtually no traffic in 2009 and 2010 this could be great news once the date actually crosses 2008.

Q I agree with you that there is a huge difference between Apr 2007 and Jul 2007 I certainly agree that Apr 2007 is quite possible but to make it Jul 2007 still requires a big push. At the header of the thread I believe you can consider revising the worst case scenario from Sep 2006 I think that will be breached for sure, maybe Nov 2006 is still quite conservative.

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Teddy,
The outlook is not that encouraging.
Assuming that USCIS may be able to clear up-to MAR2007 in FY2011 for EB2I&C we are still going to have about 9k( pending inventory)+21k PWMB (for CY 2007) = 30k i-485 between EB2I&C in CY 2007.

CY2008
EB2(I+C) PERM = 21.7k+4.0k = 25.7k (assume 5.7 towards porting and rejections, 80%-EB2)= 16k~= 35k - i485
CY2009
EB2(I+C) PERM = 15.1K+2.2k =17.3k (assume 5.3 towards porting and rejections, 80%-EB2)= 9.6k~= 21k - i485

We are looking at additional(9k+21k+35k+21k) 86k+ Porting to clear through CY 2009.

Assuming EB2(I+C) will get about 25k on average for few more years years,I would stick to our rule of five for EB2

Veni - the 76+ porting you are referring to includes the current inventory right (whatever is already in the demand data)?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vishnu

Veni - the 86+ porting you are referring to includes the current inventory right (whatever is already in the demand data)?

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Vishnu,
I for got to include it, so it will be 86k+ porting numbers for the next couple of years

It looks like DOL have been putting a big effort into adjudicating PERM cases undergoing Audit.

http://icert.doleta.gov/

The date has moved from March 2009 in March to December 2009 in April.

People have been complaining normal PERM approvals times have increased - possibly this movement for Audit cases explains why.

It also matches Trackitt data when I last looked - there did appear to be more than usual audit cases and not all of them were 2 years old.

guys - what was the spillover last year and how much went to India and China EB2? tks

Spillover for FY10,
India ~16900
China ~3500
from ~20000 spillover to EB2.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

It looks like DOL have been putting a big effort into adjudicating PERM cases undergoing Audit.

http://icert.doleta.gov/

The date has moved from March 2009 in March to December 2009 in April.

People have been complaining normal PERM approvals times have increased - possibly this movement for Audit cases explains why.

It also matches Trackitt data when I last looked - there did appear to be more than usual audit cases and not all of them were 2 years old.

---

Spec,
Other reason could be, DOL may not have very many pending(Audit) cases from 2009! As we can see from PERM disclosure data 2009 saw the bottom for both PERM filings and certification.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

GCW

What it boils down to is - Spec's calculations show that PWMB might be 33% as opposed to 7% I had assumed. . The difference comes from teh fact that the 7% only relates to people who already had perm approved. The rest 26% were approved post Jul 2007.

So between Jan-Jul 2007 instead of 1.5K per month on average, the number is really 2K. So as the dates move ahead these extra 500 per month people will start filing.

For those not concerned with details ... essentially this is going to add 3.5K in PWMB (or about 2 months impact to our calculations). Header updated accordingly.

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Q,

Thanks for converting the gathered knowledge into wisdom.

Thanks,
gcw07

Q, Spec and other gurus...
What % of PERM approvals make it to i140 stage? Also what is the average time lag between PERM approval and i140 submittal?

Veni - since there is plenty of time during the PERM process (e.g. cooling off period) to gather documents, I would think I140 is submitted very soon after the PERM approval. Would also think around 90% of PERMs are approved at I-140 stage these days given I-140 scrutiny levels are on the up.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by veni001

Q, Spec and other gurus...
What % of PERM approvals make it to i140 stage? Also what is the average time lag between PERM approval and i140 submittal?

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Veni ... agree w Vishnu. The time to file 140 shouldn't be more than 2 months on average.

Regarding %approval, trackitt shows following - D A and % Denied
PD Year 2007 140 946 13%
Calendar Year 2010 till today - 199 2287 8%

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vishnu

Veni - since there is plenty of time during the PERM process (e.g. cooling off period) to gather documents, I would think I140 is submitted very soon after the PERM approval. Would also think around 90% of PERMs are approved at I-140 stage these days given I-140 scrutiny levels are on the up.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni ... agree w Vishnu. The time to file 140 shouldn't be more than 2 months on average.

Regarding %approval, trackitt shows following - D A and % Denied
PD Year 2007 140 946 13%
Calendar Year 2010 till today - 199 2287 8%

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Q, Vishnu,
I agree with i140 denial rate and we are using 15% denial/rejections between No. of PERM approvals to No. of i140 approvals, for our calculations.

The above number averages about 10% rejections at i140, does this mean our assumption of certified PERMs that never make it to i140 stage is 5% or it is even less?

If our assumption is all PERMs at least make it to i140 stage( application), then i140 receipts (on an average)= PERM approvals +EB1 i140+EB2-NIW i140, am i correct?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by veni001

Q, Vishnu,
I agree with i140 denial rate and we are using 15% denial/rejections between No. of PERM approvals to No. of i140 approvals, for our calculations.

The above number averages about 10% rejections at i140, does this mean our assumption of certified PERMs that never make it to i140 stage is 5% or it is even less?

If our assumption is all PERMs at least make it to i140 stage( application), then i140 receipts (on an average)= PERM approvals +EB1 i140+EB2-NIW i140, am i correct?

---

veni,

Personally, I think 15% denial rate is too high.

EB2 has pretty objective criteria and you either meet them or you don't.

Whilst educational qualifications (3 year degree issue) might have led to a higher denial rate in the past, people (employer, employee and lawyers) are pretty educated about USCIS' view on this now.

EB1-B, which is much more subjective, has a denial rate of less than 10%.

For the other question, why would an employer go through all the time and expense to get a PERM approval and then not proceed to submit an I-140?

It is also in the employee's interest to ensure this happens, since they can't claim the PD for future applications unless the I-140 is approved.

Add to that the fact that the employee may need the approved I-140 to extend H1B beyond 6 years in 3 year increments and I think the conversion rate is going to be near enough to 100% that we can ignore the cases where an I-140 application does not follow a PERM approval.

My 2c anyway.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

veni,

Personally, I think 15% denial rate is too high.

EB2 has pretty objective criteria and you either meet them or you don't.

Whilst educational qualifications (3 year degree issue) might have led to a higher denial rate in the past, people (employer, employee and lawyers) are pretty educated about USCIS' view on this now.

EB1-B, which is much more subjective, has a denial rate of less than 10%.

For the other question, why would an employer go through all the time and expense to get a PERM approval and then not proceed to submit an I-140?

It is also in the employee's interest to ensure this happens, since they can't claim the PD for future applications unless the I-140 is approved.

Add to that the fact that the employee may need the approved I-140 to extend H1B beyond 6 years in 3 year increments and I think the conversion rate is going to be near enough to 100% that we can ignore the cases where an I-140 application does not follow a PERM approval.

My 2c anyway.

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Spec,
That perfectly make sense, which means i140 receipts (on an average)= PERM approvals +EB1 i140+EB2-NIW i140

or we can round it off to , I140 Receipts ~= PERM approvals +EB1i140 (since EB2-NIW % is very less)

P.S:I am crunching some numbers, will get back to you folks later in the day.