suninphx - if you mean "wish" that's ok. But as far as DOS is concerned - their goal is always to stay within the numerical limits while adhering to the laws. Then the chips may fall wherever they will. DoS / USCIS do not necessarily aim to reduce immigration backlog to certain dates by certain dates.
Right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I have edited the post to reflect what I meant....certainly did not mean to refer to anyone else' goal :)Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I wouldn't say that anything in your post is impossible.
I think the picture will become clearer as more data becomes available to fill in the blanks between now and the end of February 2014 (assuming the DOS Visa Statistics are published in January again).
I assume "multiple possibilities in FY2015" would refer to dates moving sufficiently to clear the existing Inventory?
Thanks for clarifying!Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Yes - thats correct.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
To All Gurus,
I would like to hear your comment on date’s movement in FY 2015. I think some people might laugh at me because there is no FY14 yet and I’m already asking about FY15. I knew it’s too early to predict anything.
I will post this question again next year around the same time to get a better sense. My PD is Aug 20 2010 and EB2I. With so many bad lucks in GC processing we have faced, finally I settled with this date.
I visit this forum few times in a day and I always enjoy reading posts here and this is one of the cleanest forum I have seen. The more I love about this forum is people respect each other’s view.
Coming back to the topic, I think EB2I would get about 18 to 20K visa’s this FY. With that, I would guess 14K (~ 8k from June to Dec + new filers + left over’s + porters) will be left in 2008. As of today, we knew there is 14K demand in 09 and 5K till May 1st 2010, this adds up to 19K, if we sum up the big figures here which will be 33K. I am going to assume that we are going to receive similar amount (18K) of spill over in the next FY, with that assumption, 15k will be left over at the end of next FY.I need to add few thousands to this as there will be new filers and porters, so the new number in Jan-15 would be about 18K.
My question is with this much inventory entering into the FY15; is there any possibility of DOS going for early date’s movement in FY15 and reach my date to collect a new inventory? I feel it’s a wishful thinking and at the same time I think there is a remote possibility of moving dates early as CO did the same in last year. I knew he had very few numbers (~8K) in hand last year compare to what he would have in early FY15.Your thoughts will be greatly appreciated.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks for 'sneak preview' into 2014.
I know its difficult to even not possible to put numbers to guesses now, but still I was curious as to how you calculated 2014 spill over?
Any worst case scneario of spill over next year now?
First, at this time it does not look like we will get the same amount of spillover next year - in fact it might be significantly less.Quote:
Originally Posted by SaibabaAug2010
Second, I think the number going in to FY15 will be more than 18K - probably between 20-25K to start FY15. I think FY14 will most likely clear another 12-15K. So you'll have most of 2009/partial 2010 + new porters + new filers.
The issue will moving dates is thats it not just about building inventory but its also issuing GCs for that period. So to begin the year with 18K (your number), it is very unlikely that there will be movement. I expect the movement to be around June or so of that FY. That'll help build inventory but not leave enough time for those new apps to be approved in FY15.
PS: I just want to add its way to early to even get a good read of FY14 let alone FY15. So the above is just based on critical thinking and I'm sure there will be contrarian opinions.
harapatta2012,Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatta2012
Frankly, I wouldn't put much store by it.
It's really only a rough guesstimate (with no extra FB visas) based on the lower usage of EB1 being the new "normal", EB5 using all visas and EB2-WW providing some Fall Across since they are returning to a "normal" year.
There are so many factors that can influence that (DOL performance to name just one), I wouldn't even be able to say where it is in the range (although maybe mid to lower end).
As vizcard has pointed out, the uncertainty over how many actual cases that SOFAD might be applied to is just as important.
Unfortunately, time is what is needed for the picture to become clearer on both sides of the equation. I'll probably not speculate in public for a while because of that. That's somewhat frustrating, but probably for the better.
I think that EB5 will yield a lot of spillover in the following years. I know some people who are trying the EB5 route and there are some serious headwinds. Creating 10 jobs with 500K investment has been a big challenge. It has been a challenge with even $1 Million investments. I am being told that even the EB5 regional center have not been able to create adequate jobs (10 per EB5 investment). This has created issues with getting permanent resident status after 2 years of the conditional resident status. I know an accountant in my office building that was giving EB5 and tax advice for new prospective EB5 immigrants. This year he also stopped working on EB5 cases as prior clients who applied in the regional centers are stuck and they are suing the regional centers for not creating enough jobs. New EB5 aspirants are coming to know about these issues and are no longer finding it attractive.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
honesdirec,Quote:
Originally Posted by honesdirec
I agree (and have mentioned before) that EB5 is currently experiencing some difficulties with the "tenant occupancy" methodology, which USCIS has redefined.
In fact, despite encouragement for the program politically, USCIS seems hell bent on making it as difficult as possible.
Even if numbers of new investors declines, the backlog will take care of numbers for a couple of years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,
How is it possible that person from 2008 get LPR status when dates are not current? Are they charging on some other country chargeability or are just EB1A/B/C cases?
Beats me.Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
We have also seen errors from USCIS in approving cases that are not Current.
There have been other cases that appeared to be 2008 approvals, but by trawling through their profiles and posts , I was able to find the real PD or Category and charge them accordingly.
The 3 cases shown (iamindian, tanjore, neerajn76) have no contradictory evidence.
In my opinion, its almost certainly "user error" by whoever created that entry. Most likely its a country of chargeability issue.Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
Maybe, but for at least some of them I am not so sure.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
They are all fairly recent approvals and all are within the PD range that became Current in September. It is impossible to distinguish USCIS error from User error and USCIS have made several similar errors recently.
Had they not fit those criteria, they would have been placed into my "Don't believe" bucket.
Ultimately, 3 out of the total numbers won't make any appreciable difference.
Thank you for your prompt reply. I like your don't believe bucket will need that for this month as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Any idea where the dates will end up for EB2 India in October.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
If there were 128 approvals prior to August then that should correspond to at least 2500 as the annual limit is ~2800. Having said that we can say that 1 trackit approval corresponds to 20 real world approvals.
If we use the same translation for Aug approvals then 517 would translate to 10050. Do you think that Aug approvals would be roughly 10k ?
Jagan01,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
As I have said before, different PD will have different %.
Because the 7% limit rose to 3,172, then approvals to August should be ~2,800.
Up to August, we can pretty much say all cases were porting. These cases were originally EB3, which has a completely different % to say 2007 and 2008 PD cases in EB2.
Therefore, you cannot use the same % for pre August approvals for approvals in August and September with completely different PD.
Also consider that if August approvals were 10k, then there would be correspondingly less numbers left for September and a large number of remaining cases could not be approved.
Like indiani, I think August approvals were probably somewhere about 8k.
I do grant you it is almost "pick a number".
PS:- You can always find the latest numbers here.
Currently, August approvals are 534.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I agree that different PDs have different percentage of representation in trackit.
However, I see from you detailed analysis that rate of approvals was declining towards the end of August. The decline could be because of two factors (lesser low hanging fruits/applications and running out of visas). If the rate picks up again between today and tomorrow, then it can be concluded that number of visas was not the issue, which means that there were lesser low hanging fruits that could be granted GC. Dont you think it is unlikely to have less low hanging fruits when there are about ~10k applications (8k inventory + ~2k porting) and they have approved only 8k ? This makes me think that approvals might be more than 8k... may be more like 9k to 9.5k...
Jagan01,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
I think we each have to make our own mind up.
Looking at Trackitt, I see a large number of 2007 PD and porting cases that remain unapproved, even after allowing for the fact that many will not update their case on Trackitt.
If August approvals were as high as you think, that would be a source of serious concern to me.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
My numbers are very close to your numbers, EB2I approvals in August is very close to 8000(+/- 500). The number of active pending cases( individuals who have updated the profile atleast once in the last two months) in trackitt is really high for PDs before Jan 01, 2008. Also there will be cases categorized as EB3 in trackitt who have ported and waiting for approval.
I hope the approvals speed up and there is no wastage of visa.
Matt,Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
Thanks.
That's a very useful viewpoint.
I'm not going completely mad (or rather, if I am, I'm not alone!!).
Hi folks, received my approval this afternoon. My wife had her 485 filed on Aug 1st, so still waiting on dependent. Hopefully sometime next month for her.
Trackitt and the community here were very helpful with information. I followed Matt2012 into this forum from trackitt and stayed here. This forum has some of the best immigration analysis/discussions and thanks to everybody for their help
mvkrishna,Quote:
Originally Posted by mvkrishna
Congratulations!!