EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by GhostWriter

The question i have for you, Spec and others is that if EB2-IC receipts were 60K that gives receipts for rest of EB as 64K (124K - 60K). If we scale this up for full year we get 85K (64*4/3) for rest of EB. Actually EB-ROW has also been at 2009 for Q4 so they wont have any receipts and the number probably will be between 75K-80K. How does this compare with EB (excluding EB2IC) for 2011 or 2010 ? Any ideas. This will be an important factor in determining SOFAD for 2013 for EB2-IC.

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Ghost,

I don't have a direct answer, but perhaps the figures below might help you (the All Forms Data only started in FY2011, so there are no comparable figures for FY2010)

The figures are the cumulative EB I-485 receipts through the year i.e. Q2 figure also includes Q1 etc. The figures are for all Countries, including IC.

----- FY2011 -- FY2012 -- Difference
Q1 -- 19,656 --- 35,445 ---- 15,789
Q2 -- 36,492 --- 95,139 ---- 58,647
Q3 -- 56,163 -- 124,027 ---- 67,864
Q4 -- 78,302 -- ???????

I would be slightly worried if EB2-IC did not account for somewhere around 60k.

There will have been some increase in EB5. I don't think EB3 accounts for many as there are unlikely to be many PWMB for any of the EB3 Cut Off Dates. In any case, Year-On-Year the numbers should be comparable.

If EB4 is reasonably constant, and if the increase is not due to EB2-IC, then it would have to be for either EB1 or EB2-WW, both of which would not be good for SOFAD in FY2013. Since EB4 was low last year, possibly there may have been an increase this year - I have no idea.

Generally, the increase is consistent with how EB2-IC Cut Off Dates moved through the year.

The Q4 figures may be quite interesting. With EB2 essentially absent and EB3 not accounting for many, the figures may give some insight into the EB1 numbers, if we can net off EB4 and EB5 and make an estimate for EB3.

Edited to add:

I did a very quick and dirty analysis and came up with a figure of approaching 30k for EB2-WW for FY2011. That in turn would give about 61k for EB2-IC in FY2012 if EB2-WW were prorated accordingly. Bear in mind that is a very quick analysis and subject to a fair variance because of the number of assumptions used.

1. The cases that are not pre-adjudicated are already counted in the inventory report. Why would we count them twice.

2. EB2-IC was unavailable in Q4 (July, Aug, Sep -2012). There would be no receipts and no approvals for EB2-IC in this period. So total FY2012 numbers (approvals or receipts) equal the corresponding numbers for first three quarters. Hence 3/4 is not required.

3. I realized that we are actually saying the same thing. I am using Approvals for 2012 cases which equals Total approvals (or SOFAD) - EB2-IC inventory (2006 & 2007 cases as per Oct-2011 inventory). So there is no disagreement here.

The only disagreement that remains then is item 1 i.e. the non pre-adjudicated cases. I am assuming by non documentarily qualified you are referring to cases not pre-adjudicated. There will be a small number of cases which will be received but not accepted but those should be negligible. Since you are using 20% for such cases i assumed you meant cases waiting to be pre-adjudicated. Those i think are already included in inventory report. We need a tie-breaker for this one :)

Overall my thinking was that any I-485 that is received either remains unapproved and goes to the inventory or is approved. The inventory report was as of May 3rd and the May Visa bulletin retrogressed the dates for EB2-IC to Aug-07. The only thing being counted twice would be the approvals (for PDs prior to Aug-07) that happened in May.
Adding a 5% tolerance to 60K, we should expect EB2-IC receipts to be between 57K-63K. 46K seems too low even for the lower limit.

Enjoy the labor day weekend.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Ghost I disagree that documentarily unqualified cases should be ignored. But if you ignore that then the number will actually go down according to my formula. Right?

The 3/4th factor is for approvals as opposed to receipts since I assumed 25K as full year number. If 25K is YTD through Q3 end then don't need that factor.

I am not sure I would agree w #3. That seems wrong too.

But regardless I think we can certainly agree that EB2IC receipts were between 45-60K. Right? Over ~32 months that is 1.8K max which is way less than 2.8-3K normal demand.

Now if you think about EB2ROW demand - it must follow the same destruction as EB2IC. So if EB2IC is seeing 2/3 of normal demand then EB2ROWMP should also see equivalent reduction. Generally EB2IC normal demand is quite same as EB2IC demand. So 22-25K max receipts for EB2ROWMP should be expected. However last year 10K EB2ROWMP were pending on 1st Oct 2011. I do not believe drastic reduction in that number given that even EB2ROW requires due diligence.

So all in all I absolutely would expect EB2ROW to provide at least 4K of SOFAD (excluding the ~5K extra from FB).

ps. - May leave for labor day weekend early. in that case I wish you all a happy safe weekend!! Enjoy the end of Summer!

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I have a quick question. Considering the fact that USCIS approvals till June was 104,274 and as Spec or someone mentioned that CP would around 15-16k, can we wish for around 10-15k of available visas for this month ? Is there a possibility that USCIS may waste those visas ?

I remember EB3 lost around 800-900 visas. Any thoughts ?

Thanks Spec. The total 2011 number is helpful. I have following conclusions based on the Q3 2012 I-485 report and the 2011 number that you provided below. Would be good to know your thoughts.

- 78K for FY2011 would mostly be EB1 + EB2-ROW. In 2011 only EB2-IC PWMBs up to Apr-2007 could have filed which come to 1K based on PERM data in facts and data section. EB3 as you mentioned would be negligible as well.
The corresponding expected number for FY2012 for EB1 + EB2-ROW also comes out to be between 75-80K (assuming 60K receipts for EB2-IC, scaling up the remaining 64K to full year gives 84K, reducing a bit to account for the fact that EB2-ROW can not file in Q4 either). This implies that the receipts for EB1 + Eb2-ROW are in the same range for FY2011 and FY2012. More clarity will come with updated receipts for Q4.

- Positive side is we should be able to get at least the same spillover from EB1 in 2013 as in 2012 if the trend continues. You estimated 2012 spillover from EB1 to be roughly 6.5K. We should expect at least that or slightly higher. So a SOFAD of 10K or higher for just EB2-I. (This can take the EB2-I dates to at least May-2008).

- Same for EB2-ROW, if the trend continues EB2-ROW in 2013 will have 8-9K spare visas which will be enough to clear their backlog from 2012. So I would not expect them to use EB1-spillover, they will at-least break even.

- The final conclusion is on the negative side. Total EB1 + EB2-ROW quota is 74K. Total EB1 + EB2-ROW receipts of 70K+ (we can probably reduce 5K for EB4 from 75-80K) in 2011 and 2012 indicate very slow movement in EB2-IC in coming years if the trend continues in 2013 and beyond. The situation appears worse if you assume that 84K is the actual true demand for EB1+EB2-ROW for 2012 and not scale it down because EB2-ROW can't file I-485 due to its cut-off date.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Ghost,

I don't have a direct answer, but perhaps the figures below might help you (the All Forms Data only started in FY2011, so there are no comparable figures for FY2010)

The figures are the cumulative EB I-485 receipts through the year i.e. Q2 figure also includes Q1 etc. The figures are for all Countries, including IC.

----- FY2011 -- FY2012 -- Difference
Q1 -- 19,656 --- 35,445 ---- 15,789
Q2 -- 36,492 --- 95,139 ---- 58,647
Q3 -- 56,163 -- 124,027 ---- 67,864
Q4 -- 78,302 -- ???????

I would be slightly worried if EB2-IC did not account for somewhere around 60k.

The Q4 figures may be quite interesting. With EB2 essentially absent and EB3 not accounting for many, the figures may give some insight into the EB1 numbers, if we can net off EB4 and EB5 and make an estimate for EB3.

Edited to add:

I did a very quick and dirty analysis and came up with a figure of approaching 30k for EB2-WW for FY2011. That in turn would give about 61k for EB2-IC in FY2012 if EB2-WW were prorated accordingly. Bear in mind that is a very quick analysis and subject to a fair variance because of the number of assumptions used.

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Originally Posted by GhostWriter

Thanks Spec. The total 2011 number is helpful. I have following conclusions based on the Q3 2012 I-485 report and the 2011 number that you provided below. Would be good to know your thoughts.

- 78K for FY2011 would mostly be EB1 + EB2-ROW. In 2011 only EB2-IC PWMBs up to Apr-2007 could have filed which come to 1K based on PERM data in facts and analysis section. EB3 as you mentioned would be negligible as well.
The corresponding expected number for FY2012 for EB1 + EB2-ROW also comes out to be between 75-80K (assuming 60K receipts for EB2-IC, scaling up the remaining 64K to full year gives 84K, reducing a bit to account for the fact that EB2-ROW can not file in Q4 either). This implies that the receipts for EB1 + Eb2-ROW are in the same range for FY2011 and FY2012. More clarity will come with updated receipts for Q4.

- Positive side is we should be able to get at least the same spillover from EB1 in 2013 as in 2012 if the trend continues. You estimated 2012 spillover from EB1 to be roughly 6.5K. We should expect at least that or slightly higher.

- Same for EB2-ROW, if the trend continues EB2-ROW in 2013 will have 8-9K spare visas which will be enough to clear their backlog from 2012. So I would not expect them to use EB1-spillover, they will at-least break even.

- The final conclusion is on the negative side. Total EB1 + EB2-ROW quota is 74K. Total EB1 + EB2-ROW receipts of 70K+ (we can probably reduce 5K for EB4 from 75-80K) in 2011 and 2012 indicate very slow movement in EB2-IC if the trend continues in 2013.

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Ghost,

Thanks for your analysis. I would generally agree, perhaps with an exception.

I think the 78k in FY2011 would also include EB4 & EB5 receipts, which might have accounted for around 10k. That number might be slightly higher in FY2012. I would probably still agree that EB1 + EB2-WW demand is around the 70k mark.

Thanks for looking up the PWMB etc figure for FY2011 - I had used rather more than that and it increases the EB2-WW accordingly. I may also have overestimated new receipts for EB3.

For whatever reason, in FY2011, EB2-WW used 34,550 visas (slightly more than the available allocation). That is probably consistent with a bit of porting on top of normal receipts.

If the underlying receipt figures are fairly unchanged, in principle EB2-WW would use a similar number in FY2013 - which means no spillover from them. That doesn't take into account that there is the additional backlog flowing from FY2012 to FY2013 due to retrogression. I think that may be a wash and that USCIS/DOS will just carry on as normal, but with a bigger EB2-WW processing backlog. It is also possible that EB2-WW numbers have reduced a bit. Either way, we are both saying and assuming that EB2-WW will not actually consume any spillover in FY2013.

A minor point is that EB1 would reduce from 6.5k spillover in FY2012 when 145k EB visas are available to 5k in FY2013 if total EB visas reduced to 140k.

These are minor details. In essence, I think we are both saying that 5-6k from EB1 might be expected, but anything beyond that is going to be a bonus. That gives a base SOFAD of only 11-12k, with EB2-I receiving 8-9k. That is a gross number and the actual reduction in current numbers will be reduced by any further pre August 2007 porting numbers from June 2012 through most of FY2013.

I hope I haven't misconstrued what you have said - please correct me if I have.

I agree with your assesment Spec. I had a 5K allowance for EB4 and you are right a similar number for EB5 should also be included. This would still bring the EB1 and EB2-ROW cases to 65-70K range for both 2011 and 2012 and these are only AOS filings, there will be a small number of additional CP cases. All this against a limit of 74K.

Alternatively we can also take the total 75-80K receipts and add an allowance for CP cases and compare it to 94K limit (for EB1 + EB2-ROW + EB4 + EB5).

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Ghost,

Thanks for your analysis. I would generally agree, perhaps with an exception.

I think the 78k in FY2011 would also include EB4 & EB5 receipts, which might have accounted for around 10k. That number might be slightly higher in FY2012. I would probably still agree that EB1 + EB2-WW demand is around the 70k mark.

Thanks for looking up the PWMB etc figure for FY2011 - I had used rather more than that and it increases the EB2-WW accordingly. I may also have overestimated new receipts for EB3.

For whatever reason, in FY2011, EB2-WW used 34,550 visas (slightly more than the available allocation). That is probably consistent with a bit of porting on top of normal receipts.

If the underlying receipt figures are fairly unchanged, in principle EB2-WW would use a similar number in FY2013 - which means no spillover from them. That doesn't take into account that there is the additional backlog flowing from FY2012 to FY2013 due to retrogression. I think that may be a wash and that USCIS/DOS will just carry on as normal, but with a bigger EB2-WW processing backlog. It is also possible that EB2-WW numbers have reduced a bit. Either way, we are both saying and assuming that EB2-WW will not actually consume any spillover in FY2013.

A minor point is that EB1 would reduce from 6.5k spillover in FY2012 when 145k EB visas are available to 5k in FY2013 if total EB visas reduced to 140k.

These are minor details. In essence, I think we are both saying that 5-6k from EB1 might be expected, but anything beyond that is going to be a bonus. That gives a base SOFAD of only 11-12k, with EB2-I receiving 8-9k. That is a gross number and the actual reduction in current numbers will be reduced by any further pre August 2007 porting numbers from June 2012 through most of FY2013.

I hope I haven't misconstrued what you have said - please correct me if I have.

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Spec, Ghost - So bottom line is dates move to April/May 2008 in worst (or realistic) case scenario, right?

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Spec, Ghost - So bottom line is dates move to April/May 2008 in worst (or realistic) case scenario, right?

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vizcard,

Using 95% of the May USCIS Inventory numbers, assuming 55% of cases in the Inventory before 2007 are "dead" or were approved in May 2012 and with no further porting cases, the dates for EB2-I could move to the end of March 2008 with 8.2k visas (11k SOFAD).

However, the dates could not move beyond 2007 if further porting for EB2-I was in excess of 3k.

To reach the end of May 2008 would require about 10.9k (13.7k SOFAD) plus porting numbers for EB2-I using the same assumptions.

The numbers can be reset when the October 2012 Inventory is released.

Yes Vizcard.
My objective of trying to compare 2011 and 2012 numbers was to see if there is a trend for high demand outside of EB2-IC. That appears to be the case though i had hoped for the opposite.
EB1+EB2-ROW+EB4+EB5 has a demand of 75-80K in both the years. Add a conservative 10K for CP cases and you get 85-90K vs. a total limit of 94K for these categories implying 10K spillover numbers. Add EB2-I's initial allotment of 2.8K and you just get 13K SOFAD in a steady state. (For 2013 numbers could be less as EB2-ROW's 2012 backlog needs to be cleared. Also i have not even accounted for porting).

Since these categories are current their approvals come from mostly the applications filed in current year and one year prior to that. If 2013 has demand similar to 2011 and 2012 then the answer to your question is yes. Let's hope the trend reverses and we see more spillover.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Spec, Ghost - So bottom line is dates move to April/May 2008 in worst (or realistic) case scenario, right?

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asankaran, given that cut-off dates for EB2-ROW were not moved in Sep VB, I would hope that no visas would go waste but then anything is possible.
This post by Spec will probably answer your question better. (link).

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Originally Posted by asankaran

I have a quick question. Considering the fact that USCIS approvals till June was 104,274 and as Spec or someone mentioned that CP would around 15-16k, can we wish for around 10-15k of available visas for this month ? Is there a possibility that USCIS may waste those visas ?

I remember EB3 lost around 800-900 visas. Any thoughts ?

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Quote:

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Yes Vizcard.
My objective of trying to compare 2011 and 2012 numbers was to see if there is a trend for high demand outside of EB2-IC. That appears to be the case though i had hoped for the opposite.
EB1+EB2-ROW+EB4+EB5 has a demand of 75-80K in both the years. Add a conservative 10K for CP cases and you get 85-90K vs. a total limit of 94K for these categories implying 10K spillover numbers. Add EB2-I's initial allotment of 2.8K and you just get 13K SOFAD in a steady state. (For 2013 numbers could be less as EB2-ROW needs to be returned the extra visas taken from them in 2012. Also i have not even accounted for porting).

Since these categories are current their approvals come from mostly the applications filed in current year and one year prior to that. If 2013 has demand similar to 2011 and 2012 then the answer to your question is yes. Let's hope the trend reverses and we see more spillover.

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I really see no reason why the trends would reverse. There is no evidence from PERM or I-140 approvals to suggest otherwise. In any case, the worst case scenario actually is not that bad considering the craziness that happened this year. If things had gone the way they were supposed to i.e. FIFO, the PDs would have been Dec 2007 for FY2012 and likely Q4 calendar 2008 for FY2013.

DOS expects to include some projections for cutoff dates during FY13 in the October Visa Bulletin. (On September 10th)

http://www.murthy.com/2012/08/31/vis...-october-2012/

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Originally Posted by transformer123

DOS expects to include some projections for cutoff dates during FY13 in the October Visa Bulletin. (On September 10th)

http://www.murthy.com/2012/08/31/vis...-october-2012/

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transformer,

Thanks.

From the article:

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EB2 India and China Cutoff Date Expectations

In July 2012, the DOS projected the cutoff date for EB2 India and China expected in the October 2012 Visa Bulletin. The projected cutoff date at that time was August or September 2007. Mr. Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State recently communicated with the Murthy Law Firm and indicated that even the projected August or September 2007 cutoff date may be optimistic. That date range is a best-case scenario, and there could be an even earlier cutoff date, depending upon the high demand for EB2 immigrant visa numbers.

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That sounds suspiciously like managing expectations, but perhaps should not be surprising, given how the Demand Data has increased already.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

transformer,

Thanks.

From the article:



That sounds suspiciously like managing expectations, but perhaps should not be surprising, given how the Demand Data has increased already.

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Spec,
Thank you this is what i was afraid of and looks like eventually it is going to happen.

On a side note what would the projections mention other than "we messed up in FY2012 so it will take another 4 years(sorry this time 6 years) to clean up. And we are going to repeat same thing again."

We have seen many times in the past that DOS bulletins paint really negative pictures which then subsequently turn false.

As per the latest projection of how EB2IC dates will move - consider this - a few posts back we have laid out how EB2IC demand has reduced to 1.5-1.8K max (compared to 2.5-3K normal). EB2ROW demand should be reduced equally. So EB2IC approvals should actually come in much faster (4 years as opposed to 5 years normal).

So regardless when and how visa dates are moved - based on this fact - an applicant should expect to see approval in approx 4 years since PD now on.

It all depends on spillover numbers to EB2IC. I think that the worry is that the spillover numbers are reduced?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

We have seen many times in the past that DOS bulletins paint really negative pictures which then subsequently turn false.

As per the latest projection of how EB2IC dates will move - consider this - a few posts back we have laid out how EB2IC demand has reduced to 1.5-1.8K max (compared to 2.5-3K normal). EB2ROW demand should be reduced equally. So EB2IC approvals should actually come in much faster (4 years as opposed to 5 years normal).

So regardless when and how visa dates are moved - based on this fact - an applicant should expect to see approval in approx 4 years since PD now on.

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Originally Posted by kkruna

It all depends on spillover numbers to EB2IC. I think that the worry is that the spillover numbers are reduced?

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Qs premise is that EB1 demand remains constant but EB2ROW goes down. If any of those assumptions are false, then the wait time doesn't reduce.

I just saw the following article from Murthy, refer the link below for details.
http://www.murthy.com/2012/08/31/vis...-october-2012/

- Most of us believe that the cutoff date for the Oct VB would be 01-AUG-2007, however CO himself seems to indicate that this is an optimistic projection.

- The number of erstwhile PWMB cases with PD before 01-AUG-2007 should not be too high, there are some extremely unlucky individuals whose files were not picked up despite filing in Oct / Nov 2011.

- Porting cases have been piling up now as EB2 I/C is unavailable they will have earlier PD than PWMB cases.

- In October monthly allocation is being released as opposed to quarterly so its just 240 as opposed to 720 for both India and China.

Let’s see what comes up in the bulletin though. We should be getting hearing the announcement that numbers have run out for 2012 very soon. Good to see EB1 cases getting approved this augurs well for FY 2013.

may be it's a typical extreme statement from CO
just like, they will attempt every possible thing to reach May2010 cut off

These figures can always be found in the FACT & DATA section in this thread.

About this time of year, people often ask about the historical numbers, so I am reproducing them here.

------------------ CHINA ------------------------------------ INDIA ------------------------------------ CHINA & INDIA
-------------------FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 ----- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 ----- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011
Normal Allocation - 3,257 --- 2,803 --- 3,016 --- 2,803 ------ 3,257 --- 2,803 --- 3,016 --- 2,803 ------ 6,514 --- 5,606 --- 6,032 --- 5,606
Spillover --------- 3,698 ----- 242 --- 3,489 --- 5,454 ----- 11,549 --- 7,303 -- 16,945 -- 21,194 ----- 15,247 --- 7,545 -- 20,434 -- 26,648

SOFAD ------------- 6,955 --- 3,045 --- 6,505 --- 8,257 ----- 14,806 -- 10,106 -- 19,961 -- 23,997 ----- 21,761 -- 13,151 -- 26,466 -- 32,254

http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=38263

Notes from conversations between Mike Nowlan & Roberta Freedman, AILA national committee members, and Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Topics discussed include the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012/FY2013. AILA Doc. No. 12012349.

Have to keep an eye on law-firm websites will post by end of today.

Restricted Access Page - Members Only :(

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Originally Posted by openaccount

http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=38263

Notes from conversations between Mike Nowlan & Roberta Freedman, AILA national committee members, and Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Topics discussed include the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012/FY2013. AILA Doc. No. 12012349.

Have to keep an eye on law-firm websites will post by end of today.

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Can't access this link, but i googled the document number you had and it shows the following content on Ron's site posted on June 27.

http://www.immigration-information.c...ad.php?t=17533

Is there anything posted today or were you looking for the above ?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by openaccount

http://aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=38263

Notes from conversations between Mike Nowlan & Roberta Freedman, AILA national committee members, and Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Topics discussed include the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012/FY2013. AILA Doc. No. 12012349.

Have to keep an eye on law-firm websites will post by end of today.

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Ghost-

This is posted today by AILA but only members have access, i was saying law-firms will post that info some time today/tomorrow as it happened in past. The link you sent has information from June.

http://www.aila.org/RecentPosting/Re...stingList.aspx

In above link it is 3 rd from top, AILA posts every day updates in this section.

Ok thanks for confirming. I was confused by the document number (12012349), now i understand. Let us know when you have the contents.

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Originally Posted by openaccount

Ghost-

This is posted today by AILA but only members have access, i was saying law-firms will post that info some time today/tomorrow as it happened in past. The link you sent has information from June.

http://www.aila.org/RecentPosting/Re...stingList.aspx

In above link it is 3 rd from top, AILA posts every day updates in this section.

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Someone quoted this on another forum from mitbbs:

Thursday, August 30, 2012, Roberta Freedman, AILA Students & Scholars Committee member, and Mike Nowlan, Chair of the AILA Business Committee, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 and FY2013 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Department of State’s Visa Office. These are only discussions of what could happen and are not assurances or guarantees by the Visa Office, as changes in visa usage result in changes in the Visa Bulletin.

EB-2 India priority date will probably go to 2006 when the Visa Bulletin is published next month (not 2007 as previously predicted). This is due in part to the retrogression in 2012, as well as the high level of EB-1 usage. India is expected to stay in 2006 for some time. It could fall back to 2005,but that does not appear likely right now. Slow movement in this category in FY2013 is expected.

EB-2 China priority date will be further ahead than India, but that assessment has not been completed yet.

EB-2 worldwide may go current in October, or it may go to early 2012 and then current in the November Visa Bulletin – a 2 step process. Why the delay? Employment-based numbers move in a fairly predictable usage pattern (unlike family-based cases). As a result, the Visa Office prefers to have a steady usage of EB cases per month. There are expected to be many EB-2 worldwide cases pending or filed in October, and slowing the usage could help predict usage for the rest of the year. A “correction” in EB-2 worldwide towards the latter part of FY2013 could happen (in other words, potentially visa retrogression for EB-2 worldwide and no longer current). EB-3 worldwide should remain as posted for the rest of September. No prediction could be given as to where it will go in the October Visa Bulletin. Steady progress is expected in FY2013, unless heavy EB-1 and EB-2 usage in FY2013, which would slow the speed of EB-3 worldwide.