EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by Positive

My point was that if one is not in a research or teaching position, then there is no basis for filing EB1b.

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Second that, as I have personal experience in this with regard to my wife. She has a PhD and works indirectly for space and defense, but she can’t publish anything or provide details on anything she does. So she has no chance of applying for EB1B. She can easily file EB2-NIW but that offers no advantage from a processing standpoint so we decided to just stick with my application and ride it out.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Not many think and believe this will happen. I was predicting this to happen for several years now. The logic is simple.. if administration is successful in allocating 261K visas by Sep 2021 then atleast 50k visas should go to EB3I and that brings down the EB3I final action dates to 2015 and beyond.

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My apologies if this has already been answered. What is the rule for allocating the Spillovers this year? I read a few posts that say it is EB1-> EB2 -> EB3. Another rule I read is that they will just be used to clear out the earliest PD's irrespective of EB Category as long as the 7% Per Country limit is respected. Please clarify.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

My apologies if this has already been answered. What is the rule for allocating the Spillovers this year? I read a few posts that say it is EB1-> EB2 -> EB3. Another rule I read is that they will just be used to clear out the earliest PD's irrespective of EB Category as long as the 7% Per Country limit is respected. Please clarify.

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Spec had explained this sometime back. It is 28.6% * 7% * 261,500 = 5,235 GCs (each for EB1, EB2 and EB3) for this year. Then there is horizontal and vertical spillover.
Those depend on how much ROW is using. See posts from YTeleven earlier. He seems to think that EB2I / EB3I will get a huge chunk this year as both EB2/EB3 ROW are current. It all depends on the admin and the speed at which they anticipate and move.

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Originally Posted by gcpursuit

Thanks but I dont think its approval . When we called uscis, the L1 officer told the case status was still in progress.
Hopefully nothing to worry about. will wait and see.

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So after a bit of drama with my lawyer not updating the G-28 when they moved a few years back, we finally got our approval and the Green card was delivered to us. It was a nail biting last stretch for us.

This forum has helped me immensely in preserving my sanity for the past several years. Special Thanks to Spec, Q and so many others.

I am very happy to see a lot of people being able to file their I-485 with the expected spillover. Hang in there.

Good luck to everyone ! I will still keep lurking here from time to time :)

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Originally Posted by seepz123

Hello Gurus, I need some advice regarding a job move that I am having to make. My priority date is in March 2010, and I have been on a H1-B (since 2005), and I am planning to take up a new job now as my employment with the current employer (whom I have been with since 2008) is a bit shaky due to external uncertainties. As I plan to make use of my EAD for the new employment, are there any documents that I need to submit to USCIS while making this move?

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Bump. I apologize in advance if this has been addressed before, but wasnt able find a clear answer and hoping someone with experience might be able to answer.

Thank you all for your kind words.
Congratulations imdeng and gcpursuit.
@Pundit Arjun @Suninphx @Mesan @all old timers waiting - Hope to see you all getting greened very soon.
I am surprised - Green card is Green in color guys - I was told that it is pink.
Another relief for me would be secondary inspection (SI) free travel. For years we were choosing Abu Dhabi transit to avoid hours of wait in SI.
During one of our travel, the officer at SI showed me a spice rack filled with different grains, dried curry leaf, chick peas etc. and asked me whether I have anything similar in my baggage. I definitely had few items in my suitcase and I had no choice because, he advised me no fine if I come out and $500 fine per item if they find out. I was asked to identify which item is packed where - Officer turned his screen towards me and there were scanned image of all my suitcases. I was not sure - so Open and Inspect sticker placed on all my suitcases.
Long story short, from that day onwards all our suitcases had to undergo primary inspection at home and I was not allowed in the packing area.

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Originally Posted by goracer

Congratulations to all who got green...below is some interesting analysis I found...

https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-...ward-movement/

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November bulletin will come out this week (by Friday), that will give us more data into how things are going to shake up.

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Originally Posted by goracer

Congratulations to all who got green...below is some interesting analysis I found...

https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-...ward-movement/

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It would be worthwhile to compare the EB3 FAD analysis alongside this one.
With no spillover and USCIS not wasting any numbers and EB2- to EB3 downgrade to 50000, EB2-I is expected to move to Q1 of 2012 according to this analysis.
What date would be current for EB3-I with the same assumptions ? How does that get calculated?

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Originally Posted by rohanvus

Hey texas,

I am in same situation . However confused about below aspects and havent been able to get a clear answer

a) Incase EB3 I-140 petition gets denied , will that harm existing I-140 petition (under EB2)?
b) In future if EB2 advances then will it be possible to switch back to EB2 queue easily ? Does one have to be on H1 to make that switch or can we switch back to EB2 queue while on EAD also ?

You have lived this situation , so hearing from you will be very helpful

Please let me know

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Contact good attorney It looks Murthy is slow right now In creating forms for you. I believe they are awaiting November visa Bulletin and file all their AOS cases end of the month

Sooner the better

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Originally Posted by inspired_p

It would be worthwhile to compare the EB3 FAD analysis alongside this one.
With no spillover and USCIS not wasting any numbers and EB2- to EB3 downgrade to 50000, EB2-I is expected to move to Q1 of 2012 according to this analysis.
What date would be current for EB3-I with the same assumptions ? How does that get calculated?

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I would downgrade and get the EAD.With these new H1 wage rule renewal might be difficult.

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Originally Posted by goracer

Congratulations to all who got green...below is some interesting analysis I found...

https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-...ward-movement/

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EB1 getting most of the FB SO numbers does not seem correct way of analysis to me. I will wait for the gurus to comment on this analysis.

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Originally Posted by cool_dude

I would downgrade and get the EAD.With these new H1 wage rule renewal might be difficult.

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Yes, downgrading if priority date is beyond May 2011 makes perfect sense.
Just curious how the FAD movement compares between EB2-I and EB3-I considering one specific set of assumptions for both calculations. That will drive downgrade decisions for people who are eligible to apply I-485 in EB2-I

For me personally I have an option to apply I-140 in either EB2-I and EB3-I ( fresh petition)and I have chosen EB3-I based on a hunch that EB3-I FAD will stay ahead of EB2-I for the next couple years atleast.

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Originally Posted by sudiva

EB1 getting most of the FB SO numbers does not seem correct way of analysis to me. I will wait for the gurus to comment on this analysis.

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Every analysis I've seen so far doesn't seem to account for one constant - "Processing capacity." Even with available visas, you need processing capacity to be stable, and with COVID and Administration overheads, this can be a significant factor in utilization.

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Originally Posted by inspired_p

Thank you for this information. I think this can be extrapolated to understand that medicals can be sent in anytime during I-485 is pending and we don't have to wait for an RFE for the same.
Is that correct ?

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If you dont submit a medical, USCIS normally sends a pink letter explaining that the medicals can be submitted during interview, or when you get an RFE. One point i noted from this note is that, it explicitly said that you should not mail the medicals unless there is an RFE, and that doing so may delay the case. i dont know what kind of delay they were talking about, but they were pretty clear its not recommended.

So in summary: You can. But from a note i got, sending it without RFE is discouraged by USCIS.

So in case you want to play it safe, you could include the medicals with the form. If the cases are ready to be approved within a year, there is a chance it will prevent an RFE (which can introduce a slight delay). Of late there were a few cases that were approved without interview on trackitt. So in case you are so lucky, submitting medicals now could avoid a delay.

Good Luck.

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Originally Posted by rabp77

Congratulations Kanmani. we rejoice in your freedom. You are famous in this forum.

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Can the knowledgeable folk comment on this - https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-...ward-movement/

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Originally Posted by sanjeevchhibber

I have EB2I with priority date of 10th August 2011, my perm. was filed when I was Analyst now I am Director in the same dept.. (natural progression), my employer is ready to downgrade, I ma keeping all my documents ready now my dilemma is choose which option

Option 1) Monitor November visa bulletin, if EB2I filing date moves by 3 months & reach my date then just file I485 and in the future if the final action dates for EB3 reach August 2011 before EB2 then at that time do a downgrade to EB3/I485

Option 2) Should I downgrade to EB3 now and file I140/485 together and assume that EB3 will give GC faster since I140 Inventory in EB3 in 2010/2011 is very low

My lawyer is saying there is some risk in my case because My Title is Changed not sure why this matter because job duties are same, will that risk be more with EB2 or With downgrading to EB3 not sure ?

friends I am new on this site, Any suggestion/advice appreciated

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If anyone has some suggestion please help

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Originally Posted by JoinedToAsk

Experts,

My priority date is Nov 2010 EB2I. I am hearing mixed messages from friends and several lawyers that I should continue to file in EB2I. I thought of posting here what I have gathered so far. I'd appreciate honest guidance.

Reasons for staying with EB2I in Oct/Nov 2020:

1. Let's assume that I have filed in EB2I in Oct/Nov 2020, and EB3I FAD becomes current in, say, Jan 2021. Now, if I downgrade to EB3I in Jan 2021, USCIS will not pick my EB3I in Jan 2021 although EB3I is current because I will not have an approved I-140. In other words, I'd be downgrading the month in which EB3I FAD becomes current. So, USCIS will first process those EB3I applications that will have an approved I-140 rather than mine. As a result, my application might be delayed by several months from Jan 2021.

2. I-140 in EB3I can be upgraded to premium no less than 60 days after filing downgrade application. Even then, it's at the discretion of USCIS to convert I-140 from regular processing to premium processing. So, if USCIS processes my application in regular processing (i.e. premium processing is denied), there could be a waiting period of 5-6 months for I-140 approval. Moreover, in this time, EB2I FAD might cross Nov 2010. So, I am better off staying in EB2I.

3. EB2I will get more spillover because EB1 > EB2 > EB3 in terms of priority. So, EB2I will progress faster than EB3I.

4. Sometimes downgrade/interfiling applications get lost without any updates from USCIS for several months. People go to congressmen/women for status updates, and still nothing happens. So, stay with EB2I.


Reasons for downgrading from EB2I to EB3I in Oct/Nov 2020:

1. I-140 data shows less inventory for EB3I than for EB2I in 2009/10, which implies relatively faster movement for EB3I than EB2I for Nov 2010 PD.

2. After downgrading and with approved I140 in EB3I, I will have an option to file through EB2I or EB3I. I will thus be covered either way.

3. For spillover, the priority of EB1 > EB2 > EB3 isn't right. FB spillovers are allocated equally to EB2 and EB3. This point is counter to #3 in EB2I section above.

4. After downgrading to EB3I, if EB2I moves faster than EB2I, I may not be able to upgrade to EB2I since USCIS may restrict such movement in future to make EB2I faster than EB3I.

I have gathered above data after throwing several hundred dollars on consultation. I'm very frustrated because I feel that I am getting incorrect or partially correct information. I'd appreciate if someone can give me an honest advice.

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Sorry for bumping this thread. Can experts please guide me with my post below? I'd appreciate any thoughts.

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Originally Posted by seepz123

Bump. I apologize in advance if this has been addressed before, but wasnt able find a clear answer and hoping someone with experience might be able to answer.

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I also have a EB2 PD of March 2010. I got EAD in 2012. Changed jobs in 2014 using EAD and did NOT file anything i.e. AC21 since it's optional. My idea was I'm not a GC for the next 10 yrs so I might end up changing job couple more time.

so, no need to submit or submit if you want. When our PD is near we have to submit it again anyway IMO.

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Originally Posted by smuggymba

I also have a EB2 PD of March 2010. I got EAD in 2012. Changed jobs in 2014 using EAD and did NOT file anything i.e. AC21 since it's optional. My idea was I'm not a GC for the next 10 yrs so I might end up changing job couple more time.

so, no need to submit or submit if you want. When our PD is near we have to submit it again anyway IMO.

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Thank you smuggy for sharing your experience. This is much appreciated

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Originally Posted by rabp77

If you dont submit a medical, USCIS normally sends a pink letter explaining that the medicals can be submitted during interview, or when you get an RFE. One point i noted from this note is that, it explicitly said that you should not mail the medicals unless there is an RFE, and that doing so may delay the case. i dont know what kind of delay they were talking about, but they were pretty clear its not recommended.

So in summary: You can. But from a note i got, sending it without RFE is discouraged by USCIS.

So in case you want to play it safe, you could include the medicals with the form. If the cases are ready to be approved within a year, there is a chance it will prevent an RFE (which can introduce a slight delay). Of late there were a few cases that were approved without interview on trackitt. So in case you are so lucky, submitting medicals now could avoid a delay.

Good Luck.

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Thank you,lawyers are not yet ready to apply for me and I don't foresee my application being sent out this week, I will keep an eye out for the Nov 2020 bulletin and if that gives an indication of FAD progressing rapidly enough I can reevaluate.

Let's bring back the thread to original number crunching. Based on the numbers from the thread below, I came up with some predictions (for fun). I welcome experts to review and let me know the faults in my logic.

https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-...ward-movement/

I made a few assumptions for my predictions.
i) USCIS will utilize every single visa number (What am I even smoking, right? LOL!)
ii) The entire spillover of 34k will be applied to EB-I 2&3 because of not enough demand in EB-ROW. No vertical spillover.
iii) I have the combined column of EB2 and Eb3 in the link. I broke it down to individual categories in EB2 and EB3 based on 4:1 allocation.
iv) For years 2009 and 2010, I factored in 20% downgrade. For year 2011 a 30% cases downgrade and 2012, 2013 and 2014 a 40% downgrade.

Below are the numbers I get.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Eb2/Eb3 13348 30626 44572 44622 42880 51268
EB2 10678 24501 35658 35698 34304 41014
EB3 2670 6125 8914 8924 8576 10254

EB2(Adjusted) 8542.4 19600.8 24960.6 21418.8 20582.4 24608.4
EB3(Adjusted) 4805.6 11025.2 19611.4 23203.2 22297.6 26659.6

Based on this I see EB2 reaching April 2011 by end of this FY and EB3 reaching Dec 2011 by end of this FY.

Let the bashing begin!!

I am most interested in knowing what will happen by January for EB2I. That will set the tone for the rest of the year. Hoping that they will move FADs by 2-3 months until at least the January bulletin. Saying this especially for folks in 2009 until April 2010 who already filed AOS years back. Will be awesome if the queue is cleared of all the past AOS filers.

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Originally Posted by vsivarama

Let's bring back the thread to original number crunching. Based on the numbers from the thread below, I came up with some predictions (for fun). I welcome experts to review and let me know the faults in my logic.

https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-...ward-movement/

I made a few assumptions for my predictions.
i) USCIS will utilize every single visa number (What am I even smoking, right? LOL!)
ii) The entire spillover of 34k will be applied to EB-I 2&3 because of not enough demand in EB-ROW. No vertical spillover.
iii) I have the combined column of EB2 and Eb3 in the link. I broke it down to individual categories in EB2 and EB3 based on 4:1 allocation.
iv) For years 2009 and 2010, I factored in 20% downgrade. For year 2011 a 30% cases downgrade and 2012, 2013 and 2014 a 40% downgrade.

Below are the numbers I get.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Eb2/Eb3 13348 30626 44572 44622 42880 51268
EB2 10678 24501 35658 35698 34304 41014
EB3 2670 6125 8914 8924 8576 10254

EB2(Adjusted) 8542.4 19600.8 24960.6 21418.8 20582.4 24608.4
EB3(Adjusted) 4805.6 11025.2 19611.4 23203.2 22297.6 26659.6

Based on this I see EB2 reaching April 2011 by end of this FY and EB3 reaching Dec 2011 by end of this FY.

Let the bashing begin!!

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Have u calculated dependents?

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Originally Posted by smuggymba

I also have a EB2 PD of March 2010. I got EAD in 2012. Changed jobs in 2014 using EAD and did NOT file anything i.e. AC21 since it's optional. My idea was I'm not a GC for the next 10 yrs so I might end up changing job couple more time.

so, no need to submit or submit if you want. When our PD is near we have to submit it again anyway IMO.

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smuggymba, I think it is better for you if you proactively submit I485-J. This will force an RFE for medicals and G-325A when the I485J is approved in 3 months. The medicals are valid for 2 years. So by the time, you respond to medical RFE, it will be 4 to 6 months from now and you will be current.

Or you can stay put and wait for the RFE when dates are current.

@longwaitgigu - yes dependants are included.