EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vishnu

veni - i agree that porting likely drops. but do you (and the others) see my angle on the china eb demand drop, which would leave more spillover to eb2 I.

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Yes, EBC demand dropped by 60% in 2008&2009 when compared to 2006&2007.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Ravi ... humour never fails to lighten up your mood. Thanks.

On your speculation / hunch about why PERM processing stopped ... I belong to your camp. I think things happen for a reason. And the immigration policy drives USCIS and DOS actions. So yes .... laws give them the framework but policy is at times equally or more important.

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Q,
I am hoping USCIS got a reason in holding March Inventory update!:)

Everyone seems to be assuming that CIS is an intelligent being. I disagree.

PERM processing stopped - Reason: They are lazy.
No March Inventory update - Reason: There is nothing for them to show (perhaps it just looks like Jan inventory).

PS: ravi.shah, can you please tell me which chinese restaurant you go to?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by anuran

Everyone seems to be assuming that CIS is an intelligent being. I disagree.

PERM processing stopped - Reason: They are lazy.
No March Inventory update - Reason: There is nothing for them to show (perhaps it just looks like Jan inventory).

PS: ravi.shah, can you please tell me which chinese restaurant you go to?

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After July2007 happened, they have got to be careful and reasonable. They need to be able to justify to everyone.
Restaurant : China Chalet, Florham Park, NJ :)

With great power comes great responsibility...We the council of illuminati trusted you to keep the location of the chinese restaurant an secret between us and you.Now you have broken the sacred covenant.There will be consequences....We will have to send the terminator back in 2020 to retrogress the PD dates back to 1998.

I hope you are happy now Ravi.

Signed Illuminati
(Kindly excuse my stale comedy )

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ravi.shah

After July2007 happened, they have got to be careful and reasonable. They need to be able to justify to everyone.
Restaurant : China Chalet, Florham Park, NJ :)

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Gosh, now I got to go china chalet. I never knew it got mixed up with Illuminati and stuff. But I am far far away from there. Can someone buy themselves a meal, eat the cookie and post me the fortune note? Just the note, I care less for the lucky numbers.

Anyway, after reading all of the discussion above I see that we are more confused than ever and CIS plays the same unpredictable role in this drama. I just hope the cutoff moves into mid 2007. There are 50 reasons for it to and another 50 for it not to. Gook luck to all of us.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec

My mistake. I meant completions and wrote receipts.

Its the completions that are tracking to about 70K per annum. Of which significant would be EB2/3 IC and EB3ROW which are all retro categories.

So the EB1 EB2ROW will be very less (someone could do the math and figure out). This method will corroborate at least the magnitude of SOFAD.

p.s. original post corrected.

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Q,

Thanks for the clarification.

Whilst it might indeed help the situation for FY2011, I find the overall trend quite disturbing.

The comparative YoY figures for I-140 completions are:

Mth --- FY11 --- FY10

Oct -- 5,493 -- 6,140
Nov -- 5,385 -- 5,655
Dec -- 5,828 -- 5,598
Jan -- 6,401 -- 6,096
Feb -- 4,895 -- 5,581

Tot - 28,002 - 29,070

Down, but only by less than 4%.

In the meantime, receipts have increased. The low completion figures speaks about USCIS efficiency.

This mismatch has meant that the Pending numbers have increased from 11k in March 2010 to 31k in February 2011.

FY2011 may see lower approvals, but those approvals won't represent 100% of receipts, because processing time and the backlog have increased. We may effectively only get, say, 10/12 of the approvals.

It won't therefore represent a true reflection of demand for the period.

The elevated backlog remains, which is a problem. Eventually it needs to be cleared.

Three scenarios.

a) Some effort is made to reduce the backlog in the remainder of FY2011.

In this case, we can expect to see a greater number of completions in the second half of FY2011. Whether there is time for these to impact I-485 approvals is unknown. Any porting cases probably could.

b) Completion rates increase to match receipts - no change in backlog

If both processing times and the backlog remain constant, then next year we might see 12/12 of demand approved. That would be higher than FY2011, so SOFAD would fall.

c) Backlog reduction occurs in FY2012

Completion rates are higher than receipt numbers. If the backlog is reduced, then we potentially see (12+x)/12 demand approved. SOFAD would fall more than in scenario (b).

It is true that much of the increase in receipts are probably due to porting (mainly Indian).

I don't think that is the only reason. ROW has also increased.

The Q1 2011 PERM figures showed an increase of around 20% for ROW-M-P on the same period a year ago and a similar increase on the previous quarter.

As I say - it concerns me a bit.

Evidence from the PWD data over the last 12 months suggests that EB3 cases are firmly in the minority - overall they represent less than 30% of likely I-140 applications.

I think it is food for thought, even if it doesn't impact FY2011.

Spec I tend to use a different time horizon. Since our concern is visa numbers consumption .... it would be wise to apply a 3 month offset to the I-140 applications to allow for 485 approval. In other words when looking at I-140 data I would take Jul-Jun horizon.

If you do that tehn there is a 16% descrease in I-140 completions but 25% increase in receipts. So it is apt to be worried about this situation.

I think your scenarios are quite agreeable. Scenario 3 is what could throw a very solid wrench in EB2 wheel of approvals. That's exactly what we saw in 2010 when they pushed through PERM cases to generate ROW EB2 demand. It could easily happen in next 4 months.

If that I-140 surge doesn't materialize then chances are there won't be substantial effect on 485 pipeline and our SOFAD projections won't go to dogs!!

Sometime I feel sorry for this uncertainty .... and people will think we are putting our hands on both rocks while predicting. But that's the fact of life. Who can predict how USCIS will behave and whether they will take up on I-140 backlog. We can only pray they don't for now (in our own narrow self-interest of course!)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

Thanks for the clarification.

Whilst it might indeed help the situation for FY2011, I find the overall trend quite disturbing.

The comparative YoY figures for I-140 completions are:

Mth --- FY11 --- FY10

Oct -- 5,493 -- 6,140
Nov -- 5,385 -- 5,655
Dec -- 5,828 -- 5,598
Jan -- 6,401 -- 6,096
Feb -- 4,895 -- 5,581

Tot - 28,002 - 29,070

Down, but only by less than 4%.

In the meantime, receipts have increased. The low completion figures speaks about USCIS efficiency.

This mismatch has meant that the Pending numbers have increased from 11k in March 2010 to 31k in February 2011.

FY2011 may see lower approvals, but those approvals won't represent 100% of receipts, because processing time and the backlog have increased. We may effectively only get, say, 10/12 of the approvals.

It won't therefore represent a true reflection of demand for the period.

The elevated backlog remains, which is a problem. Eventually it needs to be cleared.

Three scenarios.

a) Some effort is made to reduce the backlog in the remainder of FY2011.

In this case, we can expect to see a greater number of completions in the second half of FY2011. Whether there is time for these to impact I-485 approvals is unknown. Any porting cases probably could.

b) Completion rates increase to match receipts - no change in backlog

If both processing times and the backlog remain constant, then next year we might see 12/12 of demand approved. That would be higher than FY2011, so SOFAD would fall.

c) Backlog reduction occurs in FY2012

Completion rates are higher than receipt numbers. If the backlog is reduced, then we potentially see (12+x)/12 demand approved. SOFAD would fall more than in scenario (b).

It is true that much of the increase in receipts are probably due to porting (mainly Indian).

I don't think that is the only reason. ROW has also increased.

The Q1 2011 PERM figures showed an increase of around 20% for ROW-M-P on the same period a year ago and a similar increase on the previous quarter.

As I say - it concerns me a bit.

Evidence from the PWD data over the last 12 months suggests that EB3 cases are firmly in the minority - overall they represent less than 30% of likely I-140 applications.

I think it is food for thought, even if it doesn't impact FY2011.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

Thanks for the clarification.

Whilst it might indeed help the situation for FY2011, I find the overall trend quite disturbing.

The comparative YoY figures for I-140 completions are:

Mth --- FY11 --- FY10

Oct -- 5,493 -- 6,140
Nov -- 5,385 -- 5,655
Dec -- 5,828 -- 5,598
Jan -- 6,401 -- 6,096
Feb -- 4,895 -- 5,581

Tot - 28,002 - 29,070

Down, but only by less than 4%.

In the meantime, receipts have increased. The low completion figures speaks about USCIS efficiency.

This mismatch has meant that the Pending numbers have increased from 11k in March 2010 to 31k in February 2011.

FY2011 may see lower approvals, but those approvals won't represent 100% of receipts, because processing time and the backlog have increased. We may effectively only get, say, 10/12 of the approvals.

It won't therefore represent a true reflection of demand for the period.

The elevated backlog remains, which is a problem. Eventually it needs to be cleared.

Three scenarios.

a) Some effort is made to reduce the backlog in the remainder of FY2011.

In this case, we can expect to see a greater number of completions in the second half of FY2011. Whether there is time for these to impact I-485 approvals is unknown. Any porting cases probably could.

b) Completion rates increase to match receipts - no change in backlog

If both processing times and the backlog remain constant, then next year we might see 12/12 of demand approved. That would be higher than FY2011, so SOFAD would fall.

c) Backlog reduction occurs in FY2012

Completion rates are higher than receipt numbers. If the backlog is reduced, then we potentially see (12+x)/12 demand approved. SOFAD would fall more than in scenario (b).

It is true that much of the increase in receipts are probably due to porting (mainly Indian).

I don't think that is the only reason. ROW has also increased.

The Q1 2011 PERM figures showed an increase of around 20% for ROW-M-P on the same period a year ago and a similar increase on the previous quarter.

As I say - it concerns me a bit.

Evidence from the PWD data over the last 12 months suggests that EB3 cases are firmly in the minority - overall they represent less than 30% of likely I-140 applications.

I think it is food for thought, even if it doesn't impact FY2011.

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Spec,
As usual very good analysis, i believe completions include Rejections/Denials, am i correct?

Also if we compare pending(including customer action)i-140 cases with Oct 2009 its doubled (33 k Vs 16.7 k) and about 20% increase compared to Oct 2010(33k Vs 27.8k).

i140 receipts are about the same when compared to FY 2010, 77k Vs 33K from the first 5 months in FY 2011, but we know EB1 is down and EB2 is up within the 33k receipts from FY 2011.

A follow up to something I mentioned in my previous post.

The PWD data suggests that the overall EB2:EB3 ratio OVERALL is pushing 70:30, based on the minimum requirements stated for the job (I posted about this earlier in the thread).

We have discussed previously that since India probably has a higher ratio, maybe ROW-M-P has a lower ratio.

For calculation purposes, we have used 50:50 for ROW-M-P.

If ROW-M-P is 50:50 and China is slightly higher at 60:40 then the India ratio must be 86:14.

There are limits to how far this can be pushed.

For instance, if ROW-M-P is lowed to 40:60, then India becomes 95:5.

China's ratio may be higher. Chinese students seem to continue to Masters and PhD. This doesn't necessarily translate to EB2, but looking at trackers on Chinese websites shows very few EB3 cases.

Having said the above, I think the overall split is probably slightly lower than 70:30. I have no doubt that some of the EB2 PWD returns are too high for the employer to progess further and continue through PERM and beyond.

I thought it was interesting. I was surprised at the extent of the effect, even though I knew it wouldn't be insignificant.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec I tend to use a different time horizon. Since our concern is visa numbers consumption .... it would be wise to apply a 3 month offset to the I-140 applications to allow for 485 approval. In other words when looking at I-140 data I would take Jul-Jun horizon.

If you do that tehn there is a 16% descrease in I-140 completions but 25% increase in receipts. So it is apt to be worried about this situation.

I think your scenarios are quite agreeable. Scenario 3 is what could throw a very solid wrench in EB2 wheel of approvals. That's exactly what we saw in 2010 when they pushed through PERM cases to generate ROW EB2 demand. It could easily happen in next 4 months.

If that I-140 surge doesn't materialize then chances are there won't be substantial effect on 485 pipeline and our SOFAD projections won't go to dogs!!

Sometime I feel sorry for this uncertainty .... and people will think we are putting our hands on both rocks while predicting. But that's the fact of life. Who can predict how USCIS will behave and whether they will take up on I-140 backlog. We can only pray they don't for now (in our own narrow self-interest of course!)

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Q,

Personally, I don't think it will affect this year either. The examples were merely illustrative of various scenarios.

I was just noting that in this case, when you rob Peter to pay Paul, it is only a loan. Peter needs to be paid back eventually! (sorry about the awful metaphor!)

How and when is, I agree, anybody's guess.

Spec
I would imagine PWD data is common to CP and 485. But if it is not then that might explain the discrepancy.
For CP cases, China and Philipines tend to have very high EB3 compared to EB2

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Looking at trackers on Chinese websites shows very few EB3 cases.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec
I would imagine PWD data is common to CP and 485. But if it is not then that might explain the discrepancy.
For CP cases, China and Philipines tend to have very high EB3 compared to EB2

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Q,

Agreed the PWD must be common to all processes. They only diverge upon I-140 approval.

Your point is well taken for Philippines (and Mexico). They don't have many EB2 cases anyway.

China, I'm not so sure. EB3-C definitely has high CP (30-40%). Even allowing for that, the number of EB3-C cases over a longer period is less than EB2-C over a shorter period.

I will factor in that M & P have few EB2 cases and report back. I still think the figures will be quite high and put a limit on the ratio that can be applied to ROW, since they represent a significant % of the total.

Again, thanks for pointing that out.

Edit: Thinking about it, the 50:50 used in the calculation s is for ROW-M-P, so the figures are valid. All it means is that the ROW EB2 component within the 50% is higher if M-P are lower. That is probably correct.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

A follow up to something I mentioned in my previous post.

The PWD data suggests that the overall EB2:EB3 ratio OVERALL is pushing 70:30, based on the minimum requirements stated for the job (I posted about this earlier in the thread).

We have discussed previously that since India probably has a higher ratio, maybe ROW-M-P has a lower ratio.

For calculation purposes, we have used 50:50 for ROW-M-P.

If ROW-M-P is 50:50 and China is slightly higher at 60:40 then the India ratio must be 86:14.

There are limits to how far this can be pushed.

For instance, if ROW-M-P is lowed to 40:60, then India becomes 95:5.

China's ratio may be higher. Chinese students seem to continue to Masters and PhD. This doesn't necessarily translate to EB2, but looking at trackers on Chinese websites shows very few EB3 cases.

Having said the above, I think the overall split is probably slightly lower than 70:30. I have no doubt that some of the EB2 PWD returns are too high for the employer to progess further and continue through PERM and beyond.

I thought it was interesting. I was surprised at the extent of the effect, even though I knew it wouldn't be insignificant.

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Spec,
With the increased insight on PD movement this trend went up at a rapid rate from FY2010 to FY 2011. I was looking at 2010 PERM data and comparing with Q1 2011 PERM data, taking $34/hr(70k/yr) offered wage as ref for a EB2 qualified JOB.

FY 2010:
EBI certified- 28,930
PWD>$34/hr = 14,982 (51%)

Q1 FY 2011:
EBI certified- 9,299
PWD>$34/hr = 7,313 (79%)

We may not see any EB3I filings coming next year:)

Not to distract you from your ongoing discussion but I think why PERM processing.stopped. Atlast my email. Didn't fell on deaf ear.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by whistleblower

Not to distract you from your ongoing discussion but I think why PERM processing.stopped. Atlast my email. Didn't fell on deaf ear.

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You need to elaborate if you want us to derive any conclusions from your post

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Spec,
With the increased insight on PD movement this trend went up at a rapid rate from FY2010 to FY 2011. I was looking at 2010 PERM data and comparing with Q1 2011 PERM data, taking $34/hr(70k/yr) offered wage as ref for a EB2 qualified JOB.

FY 2010:
EBI certified- 28,930
PWD>$34/hr = 14,982 (51%)

Q1 FY 2011:
EBI certified- 9,299
PWD>$34/hr = 7,313 (79%)

We may not see any EB3I filings coming next year:)

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Veni, I would encourage you to look at minimum job requirements in the PWD data rather than look at wages. Wages vary substantially all over the country. My PWD did not fit your criteria and it still was EB2. Just saying.

veni I agree here. I personally know many people with 6 figure salaries classified as EB3.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Veni, I would encourage you to look at minimum job requirements in the PWD data rather than look at wages. Wages vary substantially all over the country. My PWD did not fit your criteria and it still was EB2. Just saying.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Gclongwait

You need to elaborate if you want us to derive any conclusions from your post

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whistleblower wrote on this forum before about blowing the whistle on perm approvals without any audits by writing to Senator Grassley

GoodMorning everyone, since the last time I have posted, India won the WorldCup and UConn won the National Title. How are things looking for EB2I with priority date of 1/29/07. Please enlighten.

Best to all.

My opinion is that you are on the wall. If you are too confused to be either an optimist or a pessimist, you will remain on the wall. If you are a pessimist, you may get it in 2012. If you are an optimist, 2011 is your lucky year. :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by srinivasj

whistleblower wrote on this forum before about blowing the whistle on perm approvals without any audits by writing to Senator Grassley

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You are misquoting me. Goal was to make sure PERMs are scrutnized well enough before they are approved (60-90 days to approval and not 3-5 days). Email was intended to check with DOL if they are scrutnizing PERMS rigorously enough that most of them are qualified in EB2. With everyone filing in EB2, this category has lost it's meaning. So long term goal was to tweak DOL. Everyone needs little tweaking here and rthere. All shady PERMS should be audited.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by whistleblower

You are misquoting me. Goal was to make sure PERMs are scrutnized well enough before they are approved (60-90 days to approval and not 3-5 days). Email was intended to check with DOL if they are scrutnizing PERMS rigorously enough that most of them are qualified in EB2. With everyone filing in EB2, this category has lost it's meaning. So long term goal was to tweak DOL. Everyone needs little tweaking here and rthere. All shady PERMS should be audited.

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sorry if i misquoted...I was trying to point the same..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by anuran

My opinion is that you are on the wall. If you are too confused to be either an optimist or a pessimist, you will remain on the wall. If you are a pessimist, you may get it in 2012. If you are an optimist, 2011 is your lucky year. :)

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This can be written in Haiku, as follows:

Sitting on the wall
Either side or stagnant
Your mind


gcw07 :D

That sure is more elegant than what I said. :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by anuran

My opinion is that you are on the wall. If you are too confused to be either an optimist or a pessimist, you will remain on the wall. If you are a pessimist, you may get it in 2012. If you are an optimist, 2011 is your lucky year. :)

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Thank you.

Sun ... take it easy. Read the header of the thread. That should answer you.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MorningSun

I didn't get it. Is this another way of saying I don't know.

Patient: Hey Doctor, am I pregnant.

Doctor: Well Well, my opinion is you are on the wall. If you are too confused to be either an optimist or a pessimist, you will remain on the wall. If you are pessimist, you may not conceive a child in 9 months. If you are an optimist, 2011 is your lucky year.

My fee is 150, please pay on your way out. Come back, if you are still confused in 2012.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Veni, I would encourage you to look at minimum job requirements in the PWD data rather than look at wages. Wages vary substantially all over the country. My PWD did not fit your criteria and it still was EB2. Just saying.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

veni I agree here. I personally know many people with 6 figure salaries classified as EB3.

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Kd2008 and Q,
I agree that this does not reflect the exact situation but only one angle, unless the PERM tide(especially EBI) turned towards EB2, i don't think there will be sudden increase in the median salary offered, that to in the current economic situation!

Veni

That's a very good insight. Makes sense to me. If EB1-I are filing in EB2-I that should increase the median salary of the PERM database.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Kd2008 and Q,
I agree that this does not reflect the exact situation but only one angle, unless the PERM tide(especially EBI) turned towards EB2, i don't think there will be sudden increase in the median salary offered, that to in the current economic situation!

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni

That's a very good insight. Makes sense to me. If EB1-I are filing in EB2-I that should increase the median salary of the PERM database.

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Guys there are several sides to this.
- Traditionally also people who apply for EB1 A & B also have been filing a EB2 or EB2 NIW application just in case. For someone who is from the retrogressed countries if the EB1 gets approved its a Jackpot if not delaying EB2 means losing your place in the line. For those from ROW EB1 is faster because of no labor requirement except for NIW case still having a EB2 application adds security. I believe at least 50% people do it. Q you may remember kondur007.

- On another side the salaries in research are not eye poppingly high they are pretty much regular most of these folks value the research and quality of work more than salary.

So while it maybe true that folks from ROW maybe tending to EB2 for safety from the perm data it is not possible to decipher or quantify this but surely this is happening as getting EB1 approvals after the Kazarian memo is tougher.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni

That's a very good insight. Makes sense to me. If EB1-I are filing in EB2-I that should increase the median salary of the PERM database.

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Q,
Since we saw about 60% decrease in overall EB1 filings, not sure if we can assume at least 50% of the EBI PERMs are for those EB1s now filing in EB2? this will be a big factor when comes to porting calculations?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Guys there are several sides to this.
- Traditionally also people who apply for EB1 A & B also have been filing a EB2 or EB2 NIW application just in case. For someone who is from the retrogressed countries if the EB1 gets approved its a Jackpot if not delaying EB2 means losing your place in the line. For those from ROW EB1 is faster because of no labor requirement except for NIW case still having a EB2 application adds security. I believe at least 50% people do it. Q you may remember kondur007.

- On another side the salaries in research are not eye poppingly high they are pretty much regular most of these folks value the research and quality of work more than salary.

So while it maybe true that folks from ROW maybe tending to EB2 for safety from the perm data it is not possible to decipher or quantify this but surely this is happening as getting EB1 approvals after the Kazarian memo is tougher.

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Teddy,
My median salary comparison is only from EBI PERMs, if most of these ERMs from FY2011 are new (otherwise filed in EB1 cases), i don't think we will have very many porting cases from Q1 FY2011 data?

As there is every likelihood that Cut Off Dates will move into 2007 this FY, I was looking at the likely number of PWMB.

I thought I would share my findings. I thinkthey are roughly in line with Teddy’s thinking, maybe slightly higher.

This is based on PERM approvals and the existing conversion rate to I-485 for 2006 and 2007 respectively. The numbers represent an average of the figures given using DOS Demand and USCIS Inventory figures.

PD 2006

There don’t appear to be many PD 2006 PWMB to come. Very few PERM approvals were after July 2007 and even fewer after September 2008, when EB2-IC had reached June 2006 for 3 months.

PD Jan – July 2007

PERM approvals for India to the end of July2007 were 8.9k. For China the figure was 2.6k.

This translated to around 9.8k and 5.5k EB2I-485 respectively.

Since July 2007, a further 4.5k PERM forIndia with a PD of Jan-July 2007 have been approved. For China, the figure is1.1k.

At the same conversion ratio, this represents a further 5.0k Indian EB2 I-485 and 1.9k Chinese EB2 I-485.

To summarize, for Jan – Jul 2007

--------- China– India –Total

Existing – 5.5 ---9.8 ---- 15.3
PWMB ----- 1.9 ---5.0 ----- 6.9
Total ---- 7.4–- 14.8 ---- 22.2

The breakdown of the PWMB by month is as follows:

Jan --- 1.88%
Feb --- 3.47%
Mar --- 6.01%
Apr -- 14.30%
May -- 17.97%
Jun -- 21.85%
Jul -- 34.53%
Tot - 100.00%

As we might expect, the concentration increases the nearer we approach July 2007, so for early 2007 PD it is not a large factor.

PD Aug – Dec 2007

India has 9.6k PERM approved with a PD of Aug– Dec 2007. China has 2.2k.

At the same conversion ratio, this represents approximately 10.7k Indian EB2 I-485 and 4.1k Chinese EB2I-485.

The breakdown of the PWMB by month is as follows:

Aug -- 19.21%
Sep -- 19.31%
Oct -- 22.13%
Nov -- 20.49%
Dec -- 18.86%
Tot - 100.00%

It appears to be a roughly equal monthly distribution.

Overall, the figures for China and India EB2 for CY 2007 look as follows:

China &India

2007 ----Existing – PWMB --Total
Jan-Jul --- 15.3---- 6.9 --- 22.2
Aug-Dec ---- 0.1--- 14.8 --- 14.9
Total ----- 15.4--- 21.7 --- 37.1

If anywhere close to correct, that is a big number for a single CY year. I don’t think that is anything we didn’t already know. Porting numbers would be in addition, to clear the year.

Of course, the above represents the worst case. In reality, they would probably be slightly lower due to attrition in the system.

What do other people think PWMB / post July2007 numbers are?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Overall, the figures for China and India EB2 for CY 2007 look as follows:

China & India

2007 ---- Existing – PWMB --Total
Jan-Jul --- 15.3 ---- 6.9 --- 22.2
Aug-Dec ---- 0.1 --- 14.8 --- 14.9
Total ----- 15.4 --- 21.7 --- 37.1

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Spec ... good calculations. Better than my old approach where if I remember correctly I had used trackitt to come up with 7% PWMB. And then I had assumed that the 7% applies to each month between Jan-Jul 2007. I had assumed that 2006 doesn't have any PWMB.

Two questions:

1. For Jan-Jul your number almost comes close to 33%. What is your confidence level in that number (at a macro level. i.e. forget distribution by month).
2. Would it make more sense for you to do calculations on all PERMs and then leaving it an open question to figure out how many of those PWMB or EB2 or 3 and India vs ROW etc.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

- Traditionally also people who apply for EB1 A & B also have been filing a EB2 or EB2 NIW application just in case. That may be true for some. However wouldnt employers be averse to filing both - especially when EB2 is so difficult given all the perm requirements?

For those from ROW EB1 is faster because of no labor requirement - EB1 doesn't have any labor for all countries. So didnt understand ....

- On another side the salaries in research are not eye poppingly high - True and not true. Typically the salaries would be 20-30K higher. Depending on the industry they could be higher or lower than this range. However one more thing that needs to be considered is that the EB1 salaries we are talking here is a subset of the overall research salaries ... so while overall EB1 salaries may not be that eye poppingly high, the EB1 here could actually be. e.g. even for H1 or EB2 a company has to prove that they are paying equivalent or more money to the candidate BECAUSE there are fewer people who could do this job. Similarly for EB1 (except there is no labor.... but the pay philosophy applies). Think this way.... why would a US company hire somebody and go through filing GC unless the person isn't in top 5% of the similar pool. And if so ... wouldn't you expect teh salary to be at least 10-20% higher?


So while it maybe true that folks from ROW maybe tending to EB2 for safety from the perm data it is not possible to decipher or quantify this but surely this is happening as getting EB1 approvals after the Kazarian memo is tougher. I think this certainly makes sense.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
Since we saw about 60% decrease in overall EB1 filings, not sure if we can assume at least 50% of the EBI PERMs are for those EB1s now filing in EB2?

I think filing another EB application is not that easy and not many employers would be willing to do that. As teddy said its hard to decipher. But 50% sounds quite high especially given that the PERMs are a mix of EB2-3. What I would ask is this - are we seeing unusual jump in EB2-3 PERMs? Now this question itself is silly because even if there is a jump... how do you attribute it to EB1 also filing theirs EB2? The jump could be an economic rebound. Or an underpaid DoL employee fatfingering the perm numbers!! Just kidding!!

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

[SIZE=3][

This is based on PERM approvals and the existing conversion rate to I-485 for 2006 and 2007 respectively. The numbers represent an average of the figures given using DOS Demand and USCIS Inventory figures.

PD 2006



PD Jan – July 2007

PERM approvals for India to the end of July2007 were 8.9k. For China the figure was 2.6k.

This translated to around 9.8k and 5.5k EB2I-485 respectively.

Since July 2007, a further 4.5k PERM forIndia with a PD of Jan-July 2007 have been approved. For China, the figure is1.1k.

At the same conversion ratio, this represents a further 5.0k Indian EB2 I-485 and 1.9k Chinese EB2 I-485.


Of course, the above represents the worst case.

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If I understand correctly, the conversion ratio which you have taken 9.8/8.9 is of 2007 when people might have applied 485 for themselves. Is it okay to take same conversion ratio for PWMB when it is 2011 now and people would have got married ?

I hope it is a stupid question else the case is worse than worst :-)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by donvar

If I understand correctly, the conversion ratio which you have taken 9.8/8.9 is of 2007 when people might have applied 485 for themselves. Is it okay to take same conversion ratio for PWMB when it is 2011 now and people would have got married ?

I hope it is a stupid question else the case is worse than worst :-)

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Donvar,

That is not stupid at all. In fact, it is a very astute question.

You are correct that I am using PWMB in the sense that the PERM was not approved in time to submit a concurrent I-140/I485 package before the door closed.

I didn't include new filings due to marriage etc, because those people weren't even at the boarding ramp at the time. They are an additional category in my own mind and would have to be added to the total numbers.

I have no idea what number they represent.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

As there is every likelihood that Cut Off Dates will move into 2007 this FY, I was looking at the likely number of PWMB.

I thought I would share my findings. I thinkthey are roughly in line with Teddy’s thinking, maybe slightly higher.

This is based on PERM approvals and the existing conversion rate to I-485 for 2006 and 2007 respectively. The numbers represent an average of the figures given using DOS Demand and USCIS Inventory figures.

PD 2006

There don’t appear to be many PD 2006 PWMB to come. Very few PERM approvals were after July 2007 and even fewer after September 2008, when EB2-IC had reached June 2006 for 3 months.
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Spec,
Looking at PERM certified data and i-485 inventory some how the factor 2.2 for i-485 is not matching!

2006 EBI PERM Data
IND Certified - 22.2k
2005PD - 7.2k
2006PD-15.0K
2007 EBI PERM Data
IND Certified - 24.5k
2006PD - 8.3k
2007PD-16.2K
2008 EBI PERM Data
IND Certified - 16.5k
2007PD - 4.0k
2008PD-12.5K

Total EBI with PD2006 =15+8.3=23.3k
Total EBI(2&3) i485(PD2006) pending=18.5+10.5=29.0k (from 05-27-2010 inventory update)

Assuming 15% denial/rejections this only translate to1.5?(PERM to i485)


2006 EBC PERM Data
CHINA Certified - 6.7k
2005PD - 2.6k
2006PD-4.1K
2007 EBC PERM Data
CHINA Certified - 6.8k
2006PD - 2.1k
2007PD-4.7K
2008 EBC PERM Data
CHINA Certified - 3.3k
2007PD - 1.0k
2008PD- 2.3K

Total EBC with PD2006 =4.1+2.1=6.2k
Total EBC(2&3) i485(PD2006) pending=7.9+1.1=9.0k (from 05-27-2010 inventory update)

Assuming 15% denial/rejections this only translate to1.7?(PERM to i485)

Am I Missing something here?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec ... good calculations. Better than my old approach where if I remember correctly I had used trackitt to come up with 7% PWMB. And then I had assumed that the 7% applies to each month between Jan-Jul 2007. I had assumed that 2006 doesn't have any PWMB.

Two questions:

1. For Jan-Jul your number almost comes close to 33%. What is your confidence level in that number (at a macro level. i.e. forget distribution by month).
2. Would it make more sense for you to do calculations on all PERMs and then leaving it an open question to figure out how many of those PWMB or EB2 or 3 and India vs ROW etc.

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Q,

(1) At a macro level, I think the confidence level is quite high. Here is the breakdown - you judge.

PERM approvals for Indian PD of Jan-Jul 2007

FY2007 Oct-Jul - 8,868
FY2007 Aug-Sep - 3,227
FY2008 Oct-Sep - 941
FY2009 Oct-Sep - 307
FY2010 Oct Sep - 54

Total Jan-Jul 07 - 13,397

Jan-Jul 2007 after July 2007 - 4,529 or 33.81%

Some of the later FY approvals could be porting - that can't be ruled out. Before 2010, it just looks like audit/appeal cases finally being adjudicated.

For PDs of Aug-Dec 2007, total approved PERM is 9,624. Of these, the vast majority (7,394 or 76.83%) were approved in FY2008.

I don't think the split of EB2/EB3 will be much different for PWMB in 2007 compared to people who just managed to catch it in time. Therefore, I believe the assumption that X number of approved PERM translates in to Y number of EB2 I-485 remains valid for PDs of 2007. Others may feel differently - I accept that.

Beyond that, it would be dangerous to make that assumption for PDs after 2007.

We should always be aware there is a margin of error in any calculation where assumptions have to be made. I believe the ballpark numbers are correct, but within an error margin.

(2) I have deliberately not taken that approach, since the conversion rate for different Countries/Country Groups are possibly different. Rather, I have looked at China and India separately and individually, because only these Countries are retrogressed in EB2.

I can certainly calculate the numbers for all Countries - I will edit this post when I have done so to show the overall % of PERM approvals that appear to be PWMB.

You can look at either the DOS Demand Data or USCIS Inventory to see how many I-485s in EB2/3 were generated. Remember to account for CP when using USCIS figures. I used both and then averaged the numbers (DOS lower, USCIS higher).

Does that address your questions Q?

I look forward to people's insight. In many ways, I would like some fatal flaw to be exposed, or so that I can refine my methodology.

Edited...This post could be deleted too. Tnx. (Reason: irrelevant)

Veni,

I can't reconcile the figures you have quoted in your post to Priority Date.

The reason is that you are using the Adjudication Year.

I am using the Year/Month of Receipt of the PERM.

The Receipt Date is the Priority Date.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

I can't reconcile the figures you have quoted in your post to Priority Date.

The reason is that you are using the Adjudication Year.

I am using the Year/Month of Receipt of the PERM.

The Receipt Date is the Priority Date.

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Ok got it,
Thanks Spec,