EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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10-05-2020, 06:27 PM
longwaitgigu

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

Same here. They are asking all physical documents/forms from us - effectively, we are preparing the application packet. Hope my printer holds up.

We have still not got
Probably by Friday
Just getting tensed up
Everyone is preparing and we are left behind
10-05-2020, 06:28 PM
longwaitgigu

So r u filing for AP and ead
What is ur priority date
When we receive our docs from lawyer, we r planning to skip ap and ead
As they can be filed later
Just doing i485, medicals and i944
We r eb2 oct 2010
10-05-2020, 07:10 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

So r u filing for AP and ead
What is ur priority date
When we receive our docs from lawyer, we r planning to skip ap and ead
As they can be filed later
Just doing i485, medicals and i944
We r eb2 oct 2010

Why medicals now?
10-05-2020, 07:12 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

We have still not got
Probably by Friday
Just getting tensed up
Everyone is preparing and we are left behind

Well, I can imagine they are overwhelmed being a big firm with mega clients. I know folks who have hired private attorneys and not using the company lawyers.
10-05-2020, 08:00 PM
longwaitgigu

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

Why medicals now?

I got two lawyers saying same thing
Klasko which is my company lawyer and fragomen my spouse company
With PD of my spouse being in oct
It's better to complete the application then later having rfe and delay process
Not apply ap and ead that's what advice I got from this forum
10-05-2020, 08:01 PM
longwaitgigu

No private attorney
That's not option with hr as they r not comfortable working with outside attorney
It's one if giant corporations so I can expect that reply
10-05-2020, 08:27 PM
texas_

Quote:

Originally Posted by android09

My employer is also only filing I-485, I-765, I-131 and I-944. They will not be sending I-485J with the initial package since they're processing I-485 for over 40 individuals and their families. They mentioned that is not their Standard Operating Procedure to send I-485 J with the initial submission. They will send the I-485J when the RFE for it comes from USCIS. Are you filing I-140 and I-485 together? If that's the case, you dont need I-485 J.

No i140 is approved already
10-05-2020, 10:10 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

I got two lawyers saying same thing
Klasko which is my company lawyer and fragomen my spouse company
With PD of my spouse being in oct
It's better to complete the application then later having rfe and delay process
Not apply ap and ead that's what advice I got from this forum

My PD is April 2010 and Fragomen has advised me otherwise (to wait for an rfe and do medicals i693 later)
10-05-2020, 10:44 PM
JoinedToAsk

Quote:

Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

Question about heroes act which we were talking about taking spillover back
Greg siskind has answered in one of his tweets

The language was written before the new fiscal year started so I'm guessing it will be scrapped or altered of the Senate takes up the bill (and not looking great for that).

Can you please share his tweet?
10-06-2020, 09:31 AM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoinedToAsk

Can you please share his tweet?

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1313127722755948544
10-06-2020, 10:12 AM
idliman

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1313127722755948544

Could someone please share the text for those of us sitting behind a firewall where access to everything is banned? Thanks.
10-06-2020, 10:14 AM
drop2ocean

medicals

My PD is June 15 2010, EB3I. what are the pros and cons of doing medicals now ?
10-06-2020, 10:18 AM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

Could someone please share the text for those of us sitting behind a firewall where access to everything is banned? Thanks.

(((Greg Siskind)))
@gsiskind
·
Oct 5
The language was written before the new fiscal year started so I'm guessing it will be scrapped or altered of the Senate takes up the bill (and not looking great for that).
10-06-2020, 10:34 AM
idliman

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

(((Greg Siskind)))
@gsiskind
·
Oct 5
The language was written before the new fiscal year started so I'm guessing it will be scrapped or altered of the Senate takes up the bill (and not looking great for that).

Thank You.
Mnuchin and Pelosi spke yesterday for an hour and they plan to talk today also. I don't think Rep. Grace Meng's SO killer amendment will be included. My guess is only the bare minimum accepted by both sides will be in the bill. So we can calm down about the SO killer language.
10-06-2020, 10:51 AM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by drop2ocean

My PD is June 15 2010, EB3I. what are the pros and cons of doing medicals now ?

It is a no brainer to me. I am doing medical with Sep'2010 in EB2. EB3 Final Action dates are in Jan 2010, so they will definitely move and the medicals are valid for two years.
So not sure why you are even thinking.
10-06-2020, 10:52 AM
qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

Thank You.
Mnuchin and Pelosi spke yesterday for an hour and they plan to talk today also. I don't think Rep. Grace Meng's SO killer amendment will be included. My guess is only the bare minimum accepted by both sides will be in the bill. So we can calm down about the SO killer language.

I had said this same thing a few weeks back that come Oct 1st, spillover will become real and congress will not harm EB nor override something that took place according to another law that it passed years back. Not impossible but quite improbable.

However what concerns me is that - in this whole discussion, we can see at least some FB interests are trying to push for their own interests. But from EB side, the only thing that may protect its interest is congress' own tendency to not do harm. This is walking on very thin ice for EB.
10-06-2020, 10:58 AM
idliman

This forum is unusually quite on predictions now a days. Congratulations to all who had the ability to file based on "DF". Here's are my predictions.
I don't see "DF" moving anymore (unless the FA dates move drastically).

From the Oct 2020 VB:

Quote:

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First:
India: Rapid forward movement

Employment Second:
India: Rapid forward movement

Employment Third:
India: Rapid forward movement

The above final action date projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through January. The determination of the actual monthly final action dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables.

I think, it will be two months per bulletin for EB2I FA dates (Nov, Dec, Jan). By January 2021, EB2I FA should have advanced 6 months from Sept 1st 2009 to March 01, 2010. For EB3I, it should be at least 3 months per bulletin. By January 2021, EB3I FA should be around 15 October 2010. What will be interesting is that they will not see immediate demand in EB3I after 01APR2010 (The FA was current only this month for the first time). So do they start doing crazy movements in EB3I FA after it crosses 01APR2010? I have not seen check in report with CO for last month. Is he keeping a low profile till the elections ?
10-06-2020, 11:12 AM
mcmilers

Finally we are getting back to predictions in the predictions and calculations thread. I agree with your prediction on FA dates for EB2. Have we started seeing RFEs for EB2 folks whose FA date is current in this Oct?
10-06-2020, 11:36 AM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by srimurthy

It is a no brainer to me. I am doing medical with Sep'2010 in EB2. EB3 Final Action dates are in Jan 2010, so they will definitely move and the medicals are valid for two years.
So not sure why you are even thinking.

what if (and it is near certain to happen), that they revoke the spill over? In my opinion (though I am quite novice), unless your PD is less than 6 months from current FAD, you are better off not doing medical.
10-06-2020, 11:49 AM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

This forum is unusually quite on predictions now a days. Congratulations to all who had the ability to file based on "DF". Here's are my predictions.
I don't see "DF" moving anymore (unless the FA dates move drastically).

From the Oct 2020 VB:

I think, it will be two months per bulletin for EB2I FA dates (Nov, Dec, Jan). By January 2021, EB2I FA should have advanced 6 months from Sept 1st 2009 to March 01, 2010. For EB3I, it should be at least 3 months per bulletin. By January 2021, EB3I FA should be around 15 October 2010. What will be interesting is that they will not see immediate demand in EB3I after 01APR2010 (The FA was current only this month for the first time). So do they start doing crazy movements in EB3I FA after it crosses 01APR2010? I have not seen check in report with CO for last month. Is he keeping a low profile till the elections ?

EB2I I agree the rate of movement. But why do we think we will not see an immediate demand post APR2010 for EBI. We have these three months when PDs upto Jan/2015 can file for 485s assuming the filing dates remain the same till that period and that will show up in the demand. My guess would be come Jan the filing dates for EB3 will be rolled back with many porting numbers, and may be around 2012 or just they may stop honoring the filing dates and just take Final Action dates as eligible for Filing.
10-06-2020, 11:54 AM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

what if (and it is near certain to happen), that they revoke the spill over? In my opinion (though I am quite novice), unless your PD is less than 6 months from current FAD, you are better off not doing medical.

Everything is a speculation. Ask people who files in 2012 and have done multiple medicals. We just reach out to our wallets if the medicals need to be redone. We shelled out so much, a few more hundreds is hardly worth the worry. What if the dates move and then will you wait for a RFE or do the paper work again? If we expect the EBI dates to not clear by 2021 then all this movement to Jan/2015 is to just ensure that we do multiple EADs, APs and Medicals and get the funding rolling.
10-06-2020, 12:01 PM
alpha0

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

I had said this same thing a few weeks back that come Oct 1st, spillover will become real and congress will not harm EB nor override something that took place according to another law that it passed years back. Not impossible but quite improbable.

However what concerns me is that - in this whole discussion, we can see at least some FB interests are trying to push for their own interests. But from EB side, the only thing that may protect its interest is congress' own tendency to not do harm. This is walking on very thin ice for EB.

Was this FB interests or lawyers who generally do not make any money from FB cases and make their living from EB? But i agree, at this stage, there should be someone from EB side killing that discussion atleast for this year.
10-06-2020, 12:03 PM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

This forum is unusually quite on predictions now a days. Congratulations to all who had the ability to file based on "DF". Here's are my predictions.
I don't see "DF" moving anymore (unless the FA dates move drastically).

From the Oct 2020 VB:

I think, it will be two months per bulletin for EB2I FA dates (Nov, Dec, Jan). By January 2021, EB2I FA should have advanced 6 months from Sept 1st 2009 to March 01, 2010. For EB3I, it should be at least 3 months per bulletin. By January 2021, EB3I FA should be around 15 October 2010. What will be interesting is that they will not see immediate demand in EB3I after 01APR2010 (The FA was current only this month for the first time). So do they start doing crazy movements in EB3I FA after it crosses 01APR2010? I have not seen check in report with CO for last month. Is he keeping a low profile till the elections ?

Is anyone else concerned about not seeing any approvals (on trackitt) even if new quota is in play now?
10-06-2020, 12:08 PM
qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by alpha0

Was this FB interests or lawyers who generally do not make any money from FB cases and make their living from EB? But i agree, at this stage, there should be someone from EB side killing that discussion atleast for this year.

In this case it was a congressional representative from Taiwan (I think). Nothing wrong in what she did. See that's who democracy is supposed to work. EB needs a solid representation. Luckily I do think they will get by this time around and the 260K visas won't be harmed.
10-06-2020, 12:09 PM
idliman

Quote:

Originally Posted by srimurthy

EB2I I agree the rate of movement. But why do we think we will not see an immediate demand post APR2010 for EBI. We have these three months when PDs upto Jan/2015 can file for 485s assuming the filing dates remain the same till that period and that will show up in the demand. My guess would be come Jan the filing dates for EB3 will be rolled back with many porting numbers, and may be around 2012 or just they may stop honoring the filing dates and just take Final Action dates as eligible for Filing.

I think it takes at a minimum about 6 to 8 months for a EB application to reach adjudication. The work load is going to be crazy high for USCIS. New applicants have to do finger printing and such. Even in 2012, I think it took 2 to 3 months to get EADs. My understanding is that they have more officers capable of adjudicating I765/I131 as they are relatively simple. But when it comes to I485 only a select few or a select group can adjudicate as it is more involved. So that's why I was thinking that they will not see demand from people who filed in OCT2020 at-least till summer months of 2021.

Now if JB wins, then he is going to cancel all of Trump's EOs. Don't know how long it will take to roll back rules on interview and medical requirements. They can resort to block approving all per-adjudicated people like in 2012/2103. That's the only way they will be able to utilize and issue the full 261.5K GCs.

If Trump wins, then all the EOs will be extended. There is going to be great spillover again. But my only concern is how much GCs will be approved. It will be great for people waiting for EADs though.

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