next time!Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec, If EB5 exceeds their annual Quota will SO from EB4(if any) got to EB5 first.
Printable View
next time!Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec, If EB5 exceeds their annual Quota will SO from EB4(if any) got to EB5 first.
openaccount,Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
No.
EB4 can only Fall Up to EB1.
So, what can we expect this year from EB5? Around 3800 (considering 6200 visas are consumed in EB5) spillover to EB1 which might provide 3800 or less FD to EB2. Any spillover visas in EB2 will go to EB2-ROW first; so is there a possibility EB2-ROW PDs will move from now until Sep'12? Or is the case that the spillover that might be provided by EB5 has already been used up during the quarterly spillovers?
pch,Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
As far as I am concerned all expected spillover has already been given.
It only remains to see whether EB1 hits the maximum figure allowed (which is less than 40k) to reach 140k total visas. If it looks like it will hit it, some of EB1 may retrogress in September.
I think it is mighty close, if EB4 is not providing any numbers. I don't think the magic number for EB1 is more than 35k and they appear to be at nearly 30k already.
EB2 appears to have used around 49k to date, which means EB2 has used 9k spillover already. That would reduce the maximum for EB1 to 31k. Add on 4k from EB5 and you get 35k as the maximum that EB1 can use this year, assuming EB4 makes no contribution to EB1.
IMO, there is zero chance of EB2-WW moving forward in September.
Your view of the numbers used may differ, but I am sure you get the idea.
I'd like EB1 to finish without a COD. one less "headwind".
Senators Leahy and Grassley are co-sponsoring a Bill to make permanent the EB-5 program which they hope will eliminate uncertainty of the future of the program and improve usage.Currently these programs have been extended periodically for terms of between 1-3 years. This might make it more attractive to invest in these Regional centers.Traditionally wealthy Chinese families have been the biggest users of the Program. Is there a likelihood that this Bill might be included with the HR 3012 Senate version?
http://www.leahy.senate.gov/press/le...stment-program
I still have no clue why the EB-5 is part of the Employment Based immigration program.The beneficiaries bring no skills to this country except a fat wallet and should not eat into the annual 140,000 limit
The same could be said for EB4 as well (except they don't even bring the fat wallet).Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
But if they were both removed from EB, then the 140k limit would reduce to 120.1k and there would be no possibility of using any unused visas either.
As of now, there seems to be a lot factors that might impede EB2-I/C movement in 2013:
1) If EB1 has a COD in Sep bulletin, there will be more EB1 cases to approve in FY13. Even if they don't have a COD, they will be using the quota of around 40K.
2) EB5 will run out of it's yearly quota in FY13; so no SO from EB5
3) We don't know much about EB4 and statistically they haven't contributed much to the spillovers
4) EB2-ROW will have more approvals just because of the COD they have for the last 3 months of FY'12
5) Not sure how EB3->EB2 porting will be in the coming year as compared to the previous years; if we assume it to be the same as we have know, it will consume decent # of visas
Sorry to portray a grim picture but can't think of that many positives of EB2-I/C for the coming year. As Spec suggested, in the worst case scenario, there will be no FD from EB1 and EB2-ROW will consume its quota (i.e. no FA from EB2-ROW), meaning EB2-I/C will be left with their normal quota of 2800. I feel this might be true for EB2C as they have a lot fewer pending applications but EB2I will probably get some spillovers (even though, it will be a lot less than before). Will be happy if we are all proven wrong (maybe due to some unforeseen reason that suddenly props up)!
Seems to be season of pessimistic predictions ...oh well...it's called being realistic isn't it?
Time to get some scenario if HR 3012 passes!
Promise we will not get expectation grow on us ...
IF HR3012 passes, EB2IC gets 85% of annual quota (for FY2013) of which most will come to EB2I. So we are talking about 30-35K SOFAD in 2013. Without going back and looking at Inventory and Demand data, I assume we will clear 2008 PDs with that number.Quote:
Originally Posted by kkruna
There are roughly 21K EB2-I and 4.5K EB2-C pending applications till end of 2008. If EB2-I/C gets 30K - 34K SOFAD in 2013, the PDs will move well into 2009. For 2009, there are ~13.5K EB2-I and ~3K EB2-C applications and the COD will be somewhere in 2009. But, I think there are too many assumptions & uncertainties involved with HR3012 now to make any reasonable prediction at this point of time.
Guys , based on all the statistics and indicators so far , practically we will not see EB2 India cross Dec 07 until 2014 quota kicks in. I think this makes the 2007 PD wait almost to 7 yrs . Correct me if Im wrong .
Technically it is approximately 5 years if you are within a fiscal year. But when you look at it from the calendar year point of view, it will range anywhere between 4 and 7 years. But then cases from oct/nov/dec 2007 are proper 2008 cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07
FYI -I moved a few posts about changing jobs with AC21 to the Post 485 filing thread.
OFLC Performance Data
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rmancedata.cfm
Off topic but worth reading.
LCA – Extensive Revisions Proposed
Very interesting. This plus Grassley's HR3012 amendments will make the process painful.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...tification.pdf
Total Received - 49,700
Total Certified - 34,900
Total in Q3 to Date Received - 19,300 (39% of YTD total)
Total in Q3 to Date Certified - 17,200 (49% of YTD total)
The damn audit percentage just keeps going up and up. I don't like it one bit because my company will be filing soon.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Also, Indian IT migrants are completely dominating the PERM pool.
Based on the "Updated PERM Statistics", I think Canada and South Korea might have EB2 cutoff dates in future. Any Thoughts?
The audit % listed there is not the % of PERMs that are being audited. It is the % of cases pending that are pending because they are audits.Quote:
The damn audit percentage just keeps going up and up. I don't like it one bit because my company will be filing soon.
Also, Indian IT migrants are completely dominating the PERM pool.
Since audits take alonger to clear, the % of pending cases that are audits should be higher than the % of audits.
I hope I made sense.
For example, say 1,000 PERMs are applied for each month. Of those 100 go to audit. The other 900 go to analyst review and are cleared in two months. After six months of this going on, you see the following:
PERMs pending: 600 audits + 1800 analyst review = 2400. the audit % looks like its 25%, but we just said that it was only 10%.
redsox,Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
I don't think there is any chance of that because the 7% is based on EB & FB combined numbers. Normally, that is 7% of 226,000 + 140,000 = 25,620.
In FY2010 (the last figures currently available) Canada used 6,565 total FB & EB visas (1.74% of that yearly FB & EB numbers) and South Korea used 14,481 total visas (3.84%).
Both Canada and South Korea use insignificant numbers of FB numbers (0.3% and 1.1% in FY2010) which allows them to use more than 7% in EB (in FY2010 South Korea used 7.9% of EB (Canada only used 3.9%)) and still stay well within the overall 7% limit.
Even if numbers ramped up significantly, as you can see, there is little chance of reaching the overall 7% limit.
I was assuming a steady state backlog but yes, I understand what you mean. In your case, the audit backlog would be steadily increasing. So earlier the audit percentage was closer to 25-30% and now it's higher...so they've either gotten slower or they are just auditing more. I guess Trackitt might have better data, albeit a smaller sample size.Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
OR, they are getting faster with the analyst reviews, which from trackitt it looks like they have: it has reduced from 120 days in March to about 60 days now.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13