gcwait2007,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
I am hoping we will have a better understanding at these numbers once USCIS release March inventory update and DOL release Q2 PERM certification data.
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gcwait2007,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
I am hoping we will have a better understanding at these numbers once USCIS release March inventory update and DOL release Q2 PERM certification data.
Veni
You are correct the Q2 Perm certification data should reveal the true picture about EB3->EB2 porting.
If it turns out it is anywhere in the range of 8K-9K as mentioned in the worst case links above...it would not be a good sign for EB2 folks post April 2007 and then probably the dates will stagnate since it could indicate greater number of EB3 folks with PD's before 2005 porting to EB2.
I pray the pessimistic predictions about porting are wrong...just hope they release the Perm certification soon.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Veni
Also would you know if this is the place to look for the PERM certification data
http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx
The data seems to be only released annually...does this mean data for this year will not be available untill Dec ?
Yes, for annual updates, starting FY 2011 DOL is publishing quarterly updates which can be found at the following link.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm
If this is true then, by when is the key for this year's final quarter PD movement.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
Q and others estimates on this forum explain that this could be less than what everybody is estimating since the dates did not retrogress. I agree with them because if these estimates are true or at-least close then, definitely it should have been reflected in the demand data.
Agree that 485 inventory update will be helpful.
Not sure how Q2 PERM data could be used to determine portings? Any thoughts?
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I think this was reflected in the demand data but then we were all thinking in terms of use of 233 visas per month and not 450-500 which DOS used to avoid retrogression and thus ended up using annual limit.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
shaumack,Quote:
Originally Posted by shaumack
This is what DOS hinted in May VB and also only in the case of EB2I , i don't think DOS/USCIS has done something similar in the past!
If using 2.8k instead of 1.4K helped the PD not to retrogress in the first two quarters is a good news indeed, at this rate porting numbers will be in the same ballpark of our initial estimates 5-6k, instead of the extreme numbers 15-20k.
Hi,
My PD is 2nd Oct 2006 EB2, will it be current by end of year 2011.
Thanks
The chances are bright;Quote:
Originally Posted by tedtom
however, you pray for it.
No prediction can be accurate.
I must buy a parrot and some cards marked with dates for these predictions..Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Really surprised in this computer age uscis cannot tell exactly its current state of eb2, eb3 prediction. [eb3->eb2 porting is a variable is see]
Thanks
U don't need to. USCIS is that parrot! Except of course this parrot is blind deaf and mute.
:p
Having said that you have a 100% chance of getting it this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tedtom
Hi QQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
So would you say that chances of being current and getting the Green Card in Hand is also high by the end of the year for tedtom.
iFaith
Based on TedTom's PD (2 Oct 2006) and EB2 .... I think the chance is a 100% that he will get a GC by end Sep 2011.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifaith
For anyone interested, the USCIS Dashboard has been upadated with figures for February 2011.
http://dashboard.uscis.gov/
We saw that in May visa bulletin the EB2-India dates moved forward because of the fact that EB1 consumption is low and there might be 12 K spillover from EB1.
So I wondered why is EB1 consumption low? What has changed? Well it happens that TSC is sitting on a pile of 25K pending I-140s - from USCIS dashboard. Even if 3K of those are EB1s, then that would be about 7.5K visas that are waiting to be consumed.
So I would be cautious about assuming the so called 12K spillover from EB1. We have been burned last couple of years.
Should TSC get its act together, quite a large chunk of those 12K will get consumed.
Just being contrarily and a devil's advocate!
Spec
You are the man.Awesome link . Also to add to what kd2008 has posted below .I glanced at the I-829 apps (final stage of conditions removal for EB5 when the 2 yrs is done and 500K is vested and 10 jobs created ) .The apps filings and approvals are climbing very rapidly.There will be very very minimal spillover from EB5 atleast from this data.EB5 has an almost 99% approval rate and looks atleast half of those filings will be granted this year itself.
Also EB1 spillover might have been overestimated.......as kd said we have been burned a few times.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Not sure about 829. The pending are climbing fast but they are still only 2000. The monthly receipts are 200 but approval rate is very low. Wonder if you could recheck and if you still believe you are right then please explain.
On another note - I-140 completions show a consistent decreasing trend which is a good sign.
I would be worried about increase in pending 485 by 43K between oct-Feb. But remember this increase includes both family and employment. On the other hand preadj 485 are showing decrease first time this year.
However the data here doesn't tell us whether the 12K in EB1 is real. Wonder if anyone has any ideas to decipher :-)
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
I-140 receipts jumped in Feb.
Based on trackitt there haven't been any PERM approvals since March so I-140 numbers will eventually drop significantly for a few months.
I have been in the Immigration process for the last 5 years and in my opinion, Charlie Oppenhiem does not open his mouth unless he is 1000% confident of what he is saying.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
When he metioned 12K spillover from EB1, it can be taken as granted and at the minimum. Further after Kazarian vs USCIS case, all EB1A and EB1B are closely scrutinized.
2. 829 shows already approved GC for the EB-5 holders. It is just removal of the condition.
3. I am seeing change of attitude in recent H1-Bs from India. Many don't bother about staying back in USA.They want to move back to India happily. Many of my Mumbai and Delhi based friends worked in USA for few years and they went back to India. Almost most of them had PERM approval.
I did a query on Trackitt using the following parametersQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Country of Chargeability - ROW
Status - Approved
485 Approval date -(Oct - Mar) Repective years.
The 60% trend is definitely broken we are now at 85%.
EB2 ROW 6 Monthly Calculations (Oct - Mar)
Year 2010- 423
Year 2011 -362
Last Year EB2 ROW gave 11K as SOFAD.
consumption last year = 43K-11K-6K = 26K.
This year the consumption is 85% of last year ~ 22K.
However we must note that we are back to normal cap so ROW allocation
would be 40-6 ~ 34K.
So Nett ROW SOFAD would be 34-22 = 12K pretty similar to last year. However as Spec points out the trend of EB2 ROW rate increasing seems to be very real.
Thanks to everyone for their contributions - you guys are great! I ooked through the 2008, 2009 and 2010 PERM data and EB india filings dropped a lot in 08, dropped further in 09 and recovered well in 10. Of course these statistics have already been discussed extensively in this thread. But I also noticed that China EB applications are down big, including in 2010. So once we clear 07 dates, I genuinely think dates will move fast (ish) because China will not consume much EB visas. Even if porting is in excess of the 6k which is already in most of your models (Q, Veni etc), I think the extra 3-4k (in pessimistic scenario), can be met by the lack of China demand hence keeping overall potential spillover to India at levels predicted by the 'bullish' models. It is not that everyone in EB3 can port too. It is either Master or BS 4 + 4 years work ex - a lot of people came with a BSc Comp Science which is a 3 year degree and although they have tons of works ex, they are unlikely to be able to port to EB2. Just my thoughts...
gcwait2007:
EB1A and EB1B numbers are always very low. I believe it is in the range of 2-3K per annum. Plus since 2008 many universities as well as corporate research facilities are not hiring due to university level budget deficit and corporate profit situation within the US. That much I know being connected to an University. I think it is EB1C that consumes a huge proportion of EB1 visas. May seem to be assuming that EB1C is under a crackdown. This part, I do not know.
vishnu:
Falling China numbers is a good point and many estimates seem to be not taking that into account.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Exactly. Then add the fact that porting involves essentially a duplicate and more complicated GC application. Now why would any US employer would want to do that - especially in this recession when attrition is extremely low.Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
gcwait2007 I fully agree with you that we should take the 12K as the minimum from EB1 in the absence of any other good way to calculate EB1.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Yes Q.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Step 1of3 is I526.
Step 2of3 is I485 or CP.
Step 3of3 is I829.
Source : USCIS EB5 Filing Procedure
That's right, if some one files 829 now means he got his GC at least 20 months back. Most of 2k 829 pending now got GC's in FY 2009, there are 3,222 EB5 approvals in FY 2009.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
FY 2010 got only 1,139 EB5 approvals.
Going back to what I mentioned earlier, China EB2 + 3 in 2010 as per PERM data (inlcuded certified and certified-expired) was only 3314 ! So EB2 is probably 50% (1657). Remember also that 2010 is a recovery year, so it's NOT like the 08 situation. So all fall-downs and fall-across go straight to EB2 India (once of course we cross 2007). This is great for EB2 I and even if you aren't that optimistic, at the very least you've got to assume that the reduction in China should somewhat offset the 'additional porting' that some as assuming, to leave India porting deduction no greater than 6000. Am I missing something?
Q
Looks like Ravi and Gcwait chipped in with the answer to your question. I had the same idea that 829 is essentially the last stage,conditional gc is granted after 485 ... and if the graphs reflects an huge pending number and EB5 has an almost 99% approval ,would it not mean those visas will be granted this year especially when the turnaround time in EB5 is minimal...at any rate spillover from EB5 should be at minimal in the model.
I know conditional GC is granted but is that reflected in the Visa numbers ..have no idea...was under the assumption only after the conditons are removed it will be counted as normal gc.....might be wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ravi.shah
Thanks. Looks like 829 has no bearing on SOFAD. Because once 485 is adjudicated the number is used.
Now if 829 is not fulfilled then GC is possibly revoked but doesn't mean that the numbers return to the pool at all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
gcseeker,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
First, I must congratulate you on your lateral thinking to try to achieve some understanding of EB5.
I think veni is correct about when the GC is issued. From the link provided by ravi.shah:
EB5 is analogous to a Marriage based GC, which is initially issued for 2 years.Quote:
Acquiring lawful permanent residence (“Green Card”) through the EB-5 category is a three step self-petitioning process.
First the successful applicant must obtain approval of his or her Form I-526 Petition for an Alien Entrepreneur.
Second, he or she must either file an I-485 application to adjust status to lawful permanent resident, or apply for an immigrant visa at a U.S. consulate or embassy outside of the United States.
The EB-5 applicant (and he or her derivative family members) are granted conditional permanent residence for a two year period upon the approval of the I-485 application or upon entry into the United States with an EB-5 immigrant visa.
Third, a a Form I-829 Petition by an Entrepreneur to Remove Conditions must be filed 90 days prior to the two year anniversary of the granting of the EB-5 applicant’s conditional Green Card. If this petition is approved by CIS then the EB-5 applicant will be issued a new Green Card without any further conditions attached to it, and will be allowed to permanently live and work in the United States.
In that case, an I-130 is approved, followed by an I-485 or Consular Processing. If approved, a conditional GC is issued for 2 years. Finally an I-751 is submitted to remove those conditions.
For EB5, just substitute the I-130 and I-751 with I-526 and I-829.
If large numbers of previous EB5 applicants are asking for removal of conditions, it tends to say that the success rate has been quite high, even in difficult times. That will encourage others as the economic outlook improves. I'm not sure how long that will take to manifest itself - probably not this FY.
I do remember that USCIS have been criticised by both the Ombudsman and lawyers for the length of time it takes to complete EB5 processing, so I don't believe it is a particularly quick process.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I suppose it depends how you look at the data. I don't really see that.
Yes, the figure is less than the beginning of the FY.
Year on Year, the figures remain higher than the corresponding period in FY2010.
Mth --- FY11 --- FY10
Oct -- 7,442 -- 4,566
Nov -- 7,839 -- 3,901
Dec -- 5,161 -- 4,337
Jan -- 6,056 -- 4,108
Feb -- 6,859 -- 4,969
Tot - 33,357 - 21,881
Spec
My mistake. I meant completions and wrote receipts.
Its the completions that are tracking to about 70K per annum. Of which significant would be EB2/3 IC and EB3ROW which are all retro categories.
So the EB1 EB2ROW will be very less (someone could do the math and figure out). This method will corroborate at least the magnitude of SOFAD.
p.s. original post corrected.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I just did and you are right. Its really weird. I have not been on that site for a long time but I gave a search on All nationalities, all categories, approved perms and uptil end of Feb (i only saw Jan and Feb 2011)just about every working day has some entries and then from Mar 1 till today there are like 3 entries.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
I don't even want to dare to guess over here because it could be anything. Obviously they are just sitting on them for some reason in all likelyhood to allow someone up the chain to clear their backlog.
Yes, it is wierd. Until Feb2011, PERM was being processed in as few as 3 days ! Come March 1st, and they stopped processing them completely ! I am not able to digest the reasoning of 'Govt Shutdown'. It is all planned. I am predicting that by September, the dates will move somewhere in 2008/2009 and then retrogress. This is what the fortune cookie told me: A LONG TIME GOAL WILL SOON BE ACHIEVED :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Gclongwait
Enjoy your life,guys !
vishnu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
Porting is a constant process and will have its peak and low points, assuming that FY 2011 will see its peak my guess would be porting will go back to normal(2-3k) in the coming year or two.
As a side note, most of the new EBI cases are trying their best get in EB2.
Ravi ... humour never fails to lighten up your mood. Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by ravi.shah
On your speculation / hunch about why PERM processing stopped ... I belong to your camp. I think things happen for a reason. And the immigration policy drives USCIS and DOS actions. So yes .... laws give them the framework but policy is at times equally or more important.
veni - i agree that porting likely drops. but do you (and the others) see my angle on the china eb demand drop, which would leave more spillover to eb2 I.
If they want to restrict new I-485's in EB2 for some reason then thats the only way to do it. On a side note... as long as getting a GC is the only long time goal you have, I think we are good. Please suppress all you other goals for the time being.Quote:
Originally Posted by ravi.shah