EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Ok that number sounds unrealistic at least for me.
Is there any official source which confirmed from where Oct numbers are coming?

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In my opinion, in absence of official source info, we should think that the numbers come from FY 2012 cap only.

5-6k is a huge number to do the trick of assigning number in September for approval in October, if that's even legal, Ron Gotcher doesnt agree, neither does Spectator I would like to think. Especially if you are going to claim visas ran out in half the month, and keep EB1, EB2 ROW demand waiting for that. They even put the verbiage in that memo to USCIS that the abrupt exhaustion is due to sudden demand you showed to us in August.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

With each passing year, more people in the pool are being eligible. They are also being presented with reports like wait is 70 years. They are seeing huge movement in EB2 I/C this calendar year, it's a great motivator. Also consider that people are doing porting even with 2007, 2008 PDs. 6k is absolute worst case, to use in analysis.

The movement DOS is doing right now, is simply going by past trend and filling kitty of 30-35k applications, and rightly they are not considering porting, 140 backlog, pending inventory for EB1 EB2ROW (Oct 2011 inventory shows more stuff than Oct 2010 inventory). Early movement was always better as said earlier, and that's happening, and is a golden opportunity to get one foot in the system.

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Nishanth,

Do you know what the exact diff is in EN1 and EB2 ROW between Oct 2011 inventory and Oct 2010 inventory? If you already have the numbers it will be good.

That means, do you say dates will not move to max Jan'2008 as you were telling previously? it sounds not good hope for eb2 untill 2013 Jan

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Yes that is Ball Park what should come into the system. So Available Numbers = 16.5K + 3.5K (Porting) = 20K and numbers used = 6K, the October approvals are definitely from the 2012 cap. Credit to Nishant’s analysis porting is not that significant.

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Originally Posted by kumar_342

Guys
Do we need to submit the following for I-485,
# Tax returns for the previous two years;
# W-2 forms for the previous two years;
my lawyer is saying dont have to unless they ask , please suggest

thanks
Kumar

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your lawyer is right.
My lawyer also didnot cite tax returns in the list of supporting documents.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

In my opinion, in absence of official source info, we should think that the numbers come from FY 2012 cap only.

5-6k is a huge number to do the trick of assigning number in September for approval in October, if that's even legal, Ron Gotcher doesnt agree, neither does Spectator I would like to think. Especially if you are going to claim visas ran out in half the month, and keep EB1, EB2 ROW demand waiting for that. They even put the verbiage in that memo to USCIS that the abrupt exhaustion is due to sudden demand you showed to us in August.

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We will have to agree to disagree again. I am not sure if Ron agrees or not and He has been wrong multiple times in the past. I will wait for more concrete official proof.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

With each passing year, more people in the pool are being eligible. They are also being presented with reports like wait is 70 years. They are seeing huge movement in EB2 I/C this calendar year, it's a great motivator. Also consider that people are doing porting even with 2007, 2008 PDs. 6k is absolute worst case, to use in analysis.

The movement DOS is doing right now, is simply going by past trend and filling kitty of 30-35k applications, and rightly they are not considering porting, 140 backlog, pending inventory for EB1 EB2ROW (Oct 2011 inventory shows more stuff than Oct 2010 inventory). Early movement was always better as said earlier, and that's happening, and is a golden opportunity to get one foot in the system.

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I disagree. I don't think things have changed so drastically that porting will increase 40%.

Not sure why yiu made point about why\how DOS moving dates. I have a feeling that they are moving on a well thought out path.Remember they have much more accurate data than what we have.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

If I use Spec's tables, subtract from Nov 1 2007 the 15 July 2007, I get 8,641

Let's wait for Teddy to get back though.

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That's for EB2IC and EB3IC combined right? Teddy can easily produce 10K number out of this. With his conservative approach.

From Fragomen
http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...erts&news=1376

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Originally Posted by th5000th

From Fragomen
http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...erts&news=1376

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thank you buddy!

familyguy, I think now you can celebrate.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

That's for EB2IC and EB3IC combined right? Teddy can easily produce 10K number out of this. With his conservative approach.

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suninphx, this is for EB2IC only.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

I disagree. I don't think things have changed so drastically that porting will increase 40%.

Not sure why yiu made point about why\how DOS moving dates. I have a feeling that they are moving on a well thought out path.Remember they have much more accurate data than what we have.

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sure, I was just putting absolute worst case number as I said in post. It only takes around 2900 people to find eligible job offers to make 6k porting.

the point about moving dates was made so that we don't think that this indicates porting is not considered a problem at all. Even in this latest news alerts they have indicated that lot of people are upgrading from eb3 to eb2. They are just rightly ignoring all the variables which can change throughout the year, and just looking at past trend.

I am glad you disagree, it brings out good points and discussion. I dont think anyone of us here claim to know the truth.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

suninphx, this is for EB2IC only.

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Not sure if we are looking at same table. I am referring to this which has both eb2 and eb3 for IC.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...thly-Breakdown)

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Not sure if we are looking at same table. I am referring to this which has both eb2 and eb3 for IC.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...thly-Breakdown)

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suninphx I am looking at:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011

I see that this is a newer version of table than I had and as per this the difference between 15th july 2007 and 1st november is a bit less by like 20. It's still 8.6k.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

sure, I was just putting absolute worst case number as I said in post. It only takes around 2900 people to find eligible job offers to make 6k porting.

the point about moving dates was made so that we don't think that this indicates porting is not considered a problem at all. Even in this latest news alerts they have indicated that lot of people are upgrading from eb3 to eb2. They are just rightly ignoring all the variables which can change throughout the year, and just looking at past trend.

I am glad you disagree, it brings out good points and discussion. I dont think anyone of us here claim to know the truth.

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No one can deny that porting is there and will continue.
My point is as years go by we should be able to narrow down gap between actual and worst case scenario. Gap for this year is 42%. I have no problem with some one being conservative , but opinions needs to be refined based on the actual picture which is not happening IMHO
As far as comments from DOS about porting goes - you know very well that they are not consistent at all about their opinion in this regard.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

suninphx I am looking at:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011

I see that this is a newer version of table than I had and as per this the difference between 15th july 2007 and 1st november is a bit less by like 20. It's still 8.6k.

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Sure. I like to go with PERM data and calculate myself. I can make my own assumptions in that case :). I am getting around 8000 which is much less than what Teddy projected.

About Tax returns and W2 etc for 485.

Friends, I will just tell you what my lawyer asked for.

He did ask for last 3 years tax returns, 3 years W2. I did not question why he wants that.

My guess is that for AOS, you need to show that you have maintained status. For someone on H1, the one of those needs to maintain status might be that he got paid wages as offered in the LCA.

Everyone's case is different, and based on situation and lawyer, documents asked maybe different.

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Originally Posted by Gclongwait

Nishanth,

Do you know what the exact diff is in EN1 and EB2 ROW between Oct 2011 inventory and Oct 2010 inventory? If you already have the numbers it will be good.

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http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD


October 2010
EB1 ROW: 4,751
EB1 All: 7,595
EB2 ROW: 8,859

October 2011
EB1 ROW: 8,028
EB1 All: 14,072
EB2 ROW: 10,184

Thanks Nishanth and GCQ. I am going to try to FOIA route like you suggested.

My lawyer is also asking me to submit last two years w2 and tax returns. I have problem with my name all over the place due to unusually long name. My name is AAA BBBBBB CCCCCCCCCC and my father's name is XXXXXXXXX YYYYYYYYY. As per my passport the given name is AAA BBBBBB CCCCCCCCCC and the family name is XXXXXXXXX YYYYYYYYY. But in US, my name is just AAA BBBBBB CCCCCCCCCC for all every day things except for all immigration related papers. So, all my H1 and 140 have the full name, but my w2 and tax returns have only the given name part. To avoid any potential confusion, I am inclined to not submit the w2 and tax returns. Till date, I never had any problems due to the name mismatches and hoping that 485 will be smooth without any issues with this name confusion. Any suggestions please??

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

About Tax returns and W2 etc for 485.

Friends, I will just tell you what my lawyer asked for.

He did ask for last 3 years tax returns, 3 years W2. I did not question why he wants that.

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have to shop for lawyers now :)

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

thank you buddy!

familyguy, I think now you can celebrate.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD


October 2010
EB1 ROW: 4,751
EB1 All: 7,595
EB2 ROW: 8,859

October 2011
EB1 ROW: 8,028
EB1 All: 14,072
EB2 ROW: 10,184

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That's ~47% increase(or ~8K) in EB1+EB2ROWMP pending applications in the past year!

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Originally Posted by veni001

That's ~52% increase(or ~11K) in EB1+EB2ROWMP pending applications in the past year!

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Yes, and that's why its good they are doing intake early without considering all these variables.

I was also amazed by amount of EB1 from India pending. Almost 4k.

Thanks. The language here is interesting - Fragomen is quoting DOS

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The State Department is planning to move EB-2 dates further ahead in December because there has been less green card demand than expected in recent months. Similar EB-2 advancements are possible in January and February 2012 if demand continues to be low.

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For prior four years, "demand" meant "visa demand".
But now since there are less preadj cases, "demand" over here means "level of 485 filings relative to the supply DOS sees in 2012 fiscal" IMHO

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Originally Posted by th5000th

From Fragomen
http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...erts&news=1376

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Originally Posted by iatiam

Thanks Dec2007. While I wish I were "Dec 2007", I am glad that your ticket to freedom is one VB away.

BTW its funny that some sort of slavery always existed in the US. Now they just call it H1B.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indentured_servant

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I really wouldn't call our situation or those described in your link "slavery".

vizcard, its perspective my friend. One's perspective is shaped by one's experiences. Looking at mine I have come to the conclusion that it is slavery if you end up working for a company lower in the food chain where there is too much anti immigration sentiment and your job becomes shit. If your company is up in the food chain, performance matters more than other factors and anti immigrant sentiment takes a backseat and H1 guy doesn't feel like a slave. Just my 2 cents.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I really wouldn't call our situation or those described in your link "slavery".

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It depends on situation, i know many people who does not want to go back to India for various reasons and they were tortured by their employer with out giving their documents and proper pay.
My case was that i am lazy i cannot call salary but i am victim of this very horrible system ( if you compared to UK or australia or canada or newzealand or infact even India0

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I really wouldn't call our situation or those described in your link "slavery".

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Yes, and that's why its good they are doing intake early without considering all these variables.

I was also amazed by amount of EB1 from India pending. Almost 4k.

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Nishant,
Only in the short run, assuming USCIS will clear this additiol backlog (only!) and also assume demand accross the board similar to FY2011 then that is ~8K less SOFAD for FY2012!

Even my lawyer does not need W2 and tax returns for I-485. I know some of my friends working in mid-cap USA company were not asked for tax returns or W2. My general perception is that you don't need to submit tax returns, it is just an extra set of documents some lawyers submit.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

About Tax returns and W2 etc for 485.

Friends, I will just tell you what my lawyer asked for.

He did ask for last 3 years tax returns, 3 years W2. I did not question why he wants that.

My guess is that for AOS, you need to show that you have maintained status. For someone on H1, the one of those needs to maintain status might be that he got paid wages as offered in the LCA.

Everyone's case is different, and based on situation and lawyer, documents asked maybe different.

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I checked the I-485 instructions and there they didn't mention about any pay stubs, w2 or tax returns. Only thing they asked for is EVL. The list my attorney sent me doesn't ask for either of these..:).

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Originally Posted by Karma1979

Even my lawyer does not need W2 and tax returns for I-485. I know some of my friends working in mid-cap USA company were not asked for tax returns or W2. My general perception is that you don't need to submit tax returns, it is just an extra set of documents some lawyers submit.

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Originally Posted by veni001

That's ~52% increase(or ~11K) in EB1+EB2ROWMP pending applications in the past year!

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Not 11k, 8k increase. Eb1 All includes eb1 row. So it's 6.5k increase in Eb1 and 1.5k approx in eb2 rowmp. A 1.5k increase can be discounted since it's very nominal considering 40k quota. I guess eb1 is not going to give more than 6k this time.

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Originally Posted by Gclongwait

Not 11k, 8k increase. Eb1 All includes eb1 row. So it's 6.5k increase in Eb1 and 1.5k approx in eb2 rowmp. A 1.5k increase can be discounted since it's very nominal considering 40k quota. I guess eb1 is not going to give more than 6k this time.

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Gclongwait,
You are correct it is ~8.1K, that is a significant increase (~47%).

It could mean ~8k less SOFAD this year compared to last year!

October 2010
EB1 All: 7,595
EB2 ROW: 8,859
EB2 MP:1,056
Total = 17,510

October 2011
EB1 All: 14,072
EB2 ROW: 10,184
EB2 MP:1,356
Total = 25,612

Veni

This is a good post. I think on the balance this year we should see less SOFAD by 8K.

If you think about it - if USCIS starts relaxing Kazarian then that 8K will jump to upto 16K (8K unprocessed demand from prior year + 8K from this year). But the chances are less.

It is quite worrisome that EB2IC can't take EB1 spillover for granted because EB1 continues to have demand that matches or exceeds supply. In 2011 kazarian memo held EB1 processing back. Another worrisome thing isthat kazarian is resulting in more delay than denial or EB1 approvals. Which means EB1 demand continues to be there creating the potential to not only use its own quota but also utilize any EB5 spillover.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Gclongwait,
You are correct it is ~8.1K, that is a significant increase (~47%).

It could mean ~8k less SOFAD this year compared to last year!

October 2010
EB1 All: 7,595
EB2 ROW: 8,859
EB2 MP:1,056
Total = 17,510

October 2011
EB1 All: 14,072
EB2 ROW: 10,184
EB2 MP:1,356
Total = 25,612

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Q, I also believe that this next VB is extremely critical. This VB might spell out various tweaks and adjustments that might happen due to close co-ordination between USCIS and DOS, to have the Eb1, Eb2ROW demand "regulated", if I may, such that the spurt (highest point region reached by Dec or maybe Jan VB) is made the peak point around which the next FY can also be started. I think both sides want to have ammunition such that:
a. Categories that are current remain so for forseeable future
b. Inventory for EB2IC is just around the comfort level that each FY's beginning intake is necessary and sufficient

ps: After the 12k showdown this year between CO and USCIS, I hope the recent prediction announcement by CO was made with USCIS in agreement. I would really hate it if USCIS plays spoilsport. I really expect a high level of consensus and coordination between CO and USCIS, if the post july 2007 era is going to be successful for both of them, with regards to entire EB category.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni

This is a good post. I think on the balance this year we should see less SOFAD by 8K.

If you think about it - if USCIS starts relaxing Kazarian then that 8K will jump to upto 16K (8K unprocessed demand from prior year + 8K from this year). But the chances are less.

It is quite worrisome that EB2IC can't take EB1 spillover for granted because EB1 continues to have demand that matches or exceeds supply. In 2011 kazarian memo held EB1 processing back. Another worrisome thing isthat kazarian is resulting in more delay than denial or EB1 approvals. Which means EB1 demand continues to be there creating the potential to not only use its own quota but also utilize any EB5 spillover.

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Originally Posted by grnwtg

It depends on situation, i know many people who does not want to go back to India for various reasons and they were tortured by their employer with out giving their documents and proper pay.
My case was that i am lazy i cannot call salary but i am victim of this very horrible system ( if you compared to UK or australia or canada or newzealand or infact even India0

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This system sucks but it still isn't close to being slavery. The fact is we have a CHOICE. Its a CHOICE we have made to a) come here and b) stay here. We can choose to go back to our home country or to any other country you mentioned. I have friends who have descended from "real" slaves so I apologize if I'm coming off as insensitive. I'm in the same boat as everyone else on this forum but I still feel I am better off that my peers in Canada, UK, Japan and India (countries where I actually have former classmates)

Friend, how much do you think should we consider worst case porting. I am open to points given by you or anyone. All I am trying to do is to understand the picture for upcoming year(s) like all of us here. I made few points about people doing masters, and also I think everyone who went to EB3 in 2008 and onwards, has gone only to reserve the PD, they are all going to port as soon as they can.

My own analysis and teddy's input later on, showed max around 4k porting for last FY. So do we think we should stick to 4k for upcoming FY. What do you guys think. Believe me, I would be most happy myself due to vested interest.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

No one can deny that porting is there and will continue.
My point is as years go by we should be able to narrow down gap between actual and worst case scenario. Gap for this year is 42%. I have no problem with some one being conservative , but opinions needs to be refined based on the actual picture which is not happening IMHO
As far as comments from DOS about porting goes - you know very well that they are not consistent at all about their opinion in this regard.

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What I don't understand is that if they move dates upto mar 2008, then there really isn't going to be an immediate need to move it beyond. But its possible they will move it 4 months past that to generate sufficient demand and then retrogress.

One thing is for sure ... these guys don't want to issue a single EAD unless they thing a case is close to being adjudicated in 4-5 months. Seen from other angle, it means, if your case becomes current, there is a very good chance that you will get a GC in 4-5 months.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Q, I also believe that this next VB is extremely critical. This VB might spell out various tweaks and adjustments that might happen due to close co-ordination between USCIS and DOS, to have the Eb1, Eb2ROW demand "regulated", if I may, such that the spurt (highest point region reached by Dec or maybe Jan VB) is made the peak point around which the next FY can also be started. I think both sides want to have ammunition such that:
a. Categories that are current remain so for forseeable future
b. Inventory for EB2IC is just around the comfort level that each FY's beginning intake is necessary and sufficient

ps: After the 12k showdown this year between CO and USCIS, I hope the recent prediction announcement by CO was made with USCIS in agreement. I would really hate it if USCIS plays spoilsport. I really expect a high level of consensus and coordination between CO and USCIS, if the post july 2007 era is going to be successful for both of them, with regards to entire EB category.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni

This is a good post. I think on the balance this year we should see less SOFAD by 8K.

If you think about it - if USCIS starts relaxing Kazarian then that 8K will jump to upto 16K (8K unprocessed demand from prior year + 8K from this year). But the chances are less.

It is quite worrisome that EB2IC can't take EB1 spillover for granted because EB1 continues to have demand that matches or exceeds supply. In 2011 kazarian memo held EB1 processing back. Another worrisome thing isthat kazarian is resulting in more delay than denial or EB1 approvals. Which means EB1 demand continues to be there creating the potential to not only use its own quota but also utilize any EB5 spillover.

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Q,
Exactly, that's the head wind for FY2012. Only FY2011 is an exception for EB1. October'11 inventory and current i140 backlog could easily consume all FY2012 EB1 quota, if not more!

In addition, EB5 receipts & pending application are not showing any sign of downward trend as of August'11. Only hope for spillover for this year is EB2ROW-M-P & EB5, unless EB1 backlog continue to buildup through out the FY!

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

What I don't understand is that if they move dates upto mar 2008, then there really isn't going to be an immediate need to move it beyond. But its possible they will move it 4 months past that to generate sufficient demand and then retrogress.

One thing is for sure ... these guys don't want to issue a single EAD unless they thing a case is close to being adjudicated in 4-5 months. Seen from other angle, it means, if your case becomes current, there is a very good chance that you will get a GC in 4-5 months.

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Q,

Why do you think they do not want to issue EAD ?

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Originally Posted by Stemcell

Q,

Why do you think they do not want to issue EAD ?

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Stemcell,
Based on Oct'11 inventory ~100k EB3 application pending & going through EAD renewal every other year, so USCIS may not want to double their work load!

[QUOTE=nishant2200;12205]Friend, how much do you think should we consider worst case porting. I am open to points given by you or anyone. All I am trying to do is to understand the picture for upcoming year(s) like all of us here. I made few points about people doing masters, and also I think everyone who went to EB3 in 2008 and onwards, has gone only to reserve the PD, they are all going to port as soon as they can.

My own analysis and teddy's input later on, showed max around 4k porting for last FY. So do we think we should stick to 4k for upcoming FY. What do you guys think. Believe me, I would be most happy myself due to vested interest.[/]

Option of doing masters was always there so nothing new there. Also, eb2,eb3 depends on job description than what degree you have. You can have PHd but still be only eligible for eb3 , based on job description.
The people who are working for big shops it's extremely difficult to do eb2 in the same company. So, in most cases they have join new company. If new company is big shop they have to wait for couple of years before their process is started. If company small/ medium size then those guys are smart enough to figure out what you will do once you get GC. Hence they also delay process as much as possible. So this evens out across the years, in my opinion. I always go with mean of 3500 as porting level because I have a feeling that when we assume ratio 70:30 for eb2:eb3 we are absorbing some numbers there. Just my thoughts. We will see how it goes. It's going to be interesting.

PS: Pending cases are really worrisome as Q and Venni pointed out.