I belive next month we should see some movement for India Eb2 touching 2005. China should/will move close to 2008.
Printable View
I belive next month we should see some movement for India Eb2 touching 2005. China should/will move close to 2008.
Now because ROW is current can we expect some miracles in last 2 quarters?
November bulletin is out. EB2I is at 1st Sept 04. No change.
EB2C : 1st Sept 2007.
EB2 ROW : Current
Friends I feel the VB is just fine. EB2 ROW is current which is good I think they should be quite literally able to clean out all EB2 ROW backlog. Approvals are coming quite steadily for both EB1 and EB2 ROW. EB2 China is also moving. Eb2 India will be just fine when the spillover starts in May 2013 until then I believe we should not be reading the dates literally because they are based on 250 per month. I do however believe that we will have 6K nett porting this year however atleast 2K of that should be attributed to the last year this will be significant in light of the fact that we are expecting reduced SOFAD this year. EB3-I anyone beyond Jan 2003 should definitely explore porting to get to GC faster in absence of any reforms.
EB2-ROW - C is a huge relief..It reduces the "EB2 variables" to India and China. EB2-C is at a comfortable date, which EB2-I can easily catch up, barring any catastrophic rise in other visa numbers. If we assume 3k porting applications, prior to Sept. 1st 2007, it would take 6268 visas (2800 Regular quota visas+ SOFAD of 3468).
EB2-C would be a good date to follow moving forward. Assuming porting EB3C-EB2C porting is 0, just with its regular allocation, EB2-C will reach mid-August 2008. With a 3k porting estimate, EB2-I would need roughly 18600 vias (SO of roughly 16k).
I had a question about EB2-ROW being Current..
EB2-ROW gets roughly 2750 visas per month.
A COD for EB2-ROW (01/01/2009) was put in place in the July bulletin.In the October visa bulletin, a COD of 01/01/2012 was put in place.
So it is safe to assume that whatever applications were pending between 01/01/2009-01/01/2012, were processed and approved before the Fiscal Year began. (possibly by the 5k visas received from FB).
EB2-ROW is C for the November bulletin.So the 5500 odd visas that were allocated to EB2-ROW this year ( 2750 each for Oct. and November), were enough to take care of their demand.
Even if we assume that these 5500 visas are strictly the cases between July and October, EB2-ROW demand is not more than 22k visas. Add to that the 5600 visas allocated to EB2-IC. Does that mean, we can expect a spillover of at least 8-10k from EB2-ROW?
Hi Teddy,
It seems like CO is moving dates based on 250 per month. But even then, we should have seen dates still move (maybe by few months). Do we still have 250 more cases before Sep 2004 (after 250 that got or will be approved in Oct). Looks like porting is killing all the monthly quota.
Not an expert but here is my take.
VB was released on October 12th from Oct1-Oct10 there could have been some new porting numbers(probably<100) added to DD compared to previous month, that might have influenced in not moving PD. If in 10 days some X new porting numbers were added to DD then there is a fair chance for that number to become 2X by Nov1, that could be the reason for not moving PD.
I'm sorry, I didn't understand the calculation.
1. The ~6k Demand, that showed up in the Oct. Demand Data is the Carried Over Demand, correct?
2. Assuming the Demand is roughly 2k per month, the Demand for the month of November should have been 5300 (6000 (Carry Over) + 2000 (Oct. Demand) - 2700 (EB2-ROW quota) = 5300).
3. The Demand Shows up as 1650. It could mean either A. EB2-ROW received an excess of ~3.7k (5.3-1.6) visas in the month of October. Or B.The Residual Demand for October and Project November Demand Combined was 1050 (6000 -2700 (Oct.) - 2700 (Nov.) + 1050 = 1650).
The second scenario seems too good to be true and the first seems highly unlikely. What do you think?
My take on this
As it will be difficult to estimate or predict demand for last 2-3 months, in which case those might be added back to EB2-I as spill over. Hence my guesstimate would be around 10K from EB2-ROW. May be at the expense of them being unavailable to EB2-ROW for 1-2 months!
Thanks sportsfan on ROW demand explanation - makes sense. How could one guess the EB-1 demand, given the fact that, it is not mentioned in the demand data.
Hopefully 485 pending inventory that will be released(this month?) will give us some clue to Eb1 trends?
ROW PERMs for FY-2012
The below links show a total of 67K PERMs filed in 2012. Subtracting 10K withdrawn and denied applications we get 57K which will ultimately get certified (52K are already certified, rest are pending). Of these 62% (35K) would be India and China, leaving 22K for ROW. This includes both EB2 and EB3.
http://www.kidambi.com/resources/per...ics%202012.pdf
http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/05/dol...on-statistics/
Spec, i was comparing this number with your facts and data numbers for 2010 and 2011. Those are calender years so will be slightly off but since both are 12 months of data i guess they can still be compared for purposes of getting the trend. Both those years have 18-19K of PERMs for ROW. So this indicates slight increase in ROW-PERM filings in 2012.
Using a transformation ratio of 1 this should result in 22K EB2-ROW I-485s (some filed in 2012 and some in 2013). This should leave room for 10-12K spillover from EB2-ROW (on average). Will you agree or am i missing something. I think Q also had a similar question with past year ROW PERM data.
EB3I is unlikely to get any spillover from anywhere. When, for example, EB3ROW cliff reaches, EB3ROW dates will be moved forward to get new inventory just like they did for EB2IC, preventing any horizontal spillover to EB3I. As far as any vertical spillover is concerned - it is not happening any way because of EB2IC - and even if some did reach EB3 some time in future, they will first go to EB3ROW before reaching EB3IC because of the 7% rule.
Even though EB2I did not move in this VB, I am quite fine with it. EB2ROW getting to C is quite significant - that means horizontal spillovers are now accumulating and will flow to EB2I whenever CO decides to act on it (quarterly spillovers hopefully - then start of the new quarter - the Jan VB).
imdeng - you are right. Unfortunately that is true. The only way EB3I can receive any spillover is if EB3ROWMP is current. Even if ROW faces cliff - they will advance the dates. Even if they don't - EB3M has huge CP demand. So most of the spillover if any will go to EB3P.
As disheartening as it may sound, I doubt CO will go for QSP, as early as Jan. With his plate full with EB2-IC and with lessons learnt last year, I believe CO will move dates conservatively, until he is absolutely sure he doesn't have to put a COD on EB2-ROW or EB1. I think that point of comfort would come around May/June.
On the other hand - it is a possibility that the EB3M/P/ROW density is not very high post 07/07. So a path to EB3ROW being current some time in future is possible. I believe the ratio of EB3 to EB2 has declined after 07/07 and the transient factors that drove up the EB3 demand (like nurses from P, the big nurse shortage is over) have subsided. Plus the recession might have caused some real demand destruction there. We will know how this will turn out as we get visibility on the post-07/07 demand for EB3ROW/M/P in a few months.
Update: BTW - looking at Spec's collection of PERM data for ROW/M/P, the number of PERMs have declined drastically. From 44K for 2007 PDs to just 18K for 2011 PDs. However, both 2007 and 2008 are pretty dense - so it is a couple years at least before the low density will show up.
Some people have pointed out that the demand data did reduce by 250 however the dates did not move. The only explanation is that the agencies still feel that 250 porting cases can still come up before Sep 2004 with new porting related i140's being approved and interfiling. So essentially its a case of a moving target with the demand data reduction not being able to truly represent the situation. Unfortunately this will keep going on for a few months till the May - Jul. This actually is the default mode of operation (Very Conservative Movement) what we saw last year was an exception as an inventory had to be created. The big silver lining of this bulletin is that EB2 ROW is now current. Porting has not really increased however last year probably only 50% porting cases saw approval due to dates going to unavailable.
The Demand Data provide a good hint of how much porting is going on:
EB3I fell by 425. EB-3I before 2003 dropped by 175 - if you assume all of these were "charged" to EB3, then the difference 425-175 equals 250.
Therefore there is a minimum of 250 porting cases being approved for EB3 I
One caveat: EB3 ROW dropped by 1275 before 2007, but only by 1200 before 2012. This means applicants may be adding dependents (such as follow to join) or 2007 cases are being preapproved even at this late date. The same may be happening on EB3 I, which would "mask" the true size of porting.
Q/ Spec/ Gurus ,
Exactly what month or range of months do we predict EB2-India to reach or cross Dec 07
Sportsfan - none of the EB3 dates have even reached 2007 yet, let alone 07/07. CO has months to plan and get additional inventory for EB3. While they don't seem much efficient up there, I doubt they will mess up something this predictable and well in advance. I think something like 4 months before they estimate to reach the demand cliff, they will extend PD beyond 07/07 and get enough inventory to to carry forward as usual. They might even push the dates far beyond 07/07 (say 2009, 2010) so that they get enough inventory to last a couple years.
Update: Based on current inventory and burn rate of the inventory ROW (11.4K) should be the first to show movement along with C (1.4K) and M (1.2K). I and P have enough demand. Hmm... they do not have much time. Assuming a 4-6 months processing time for USCIS and a 250/month burn rate for countries and 2K/month burn rate for ROW, they need to extend PDs beyond 07/07 and accumulate inventory in next few VBs. If they fail to extend PDs in next 3 months then yes, they may reach a situation where its Sept and they need to use all the visas - but they don't have enough documentarily qualified ROW/C/M applicants. If that happens then I can see a horizontal spillover to EB3I (it could go to EB3P as well - but if its not going to ROW then it will go to I since P and I both are over the 7% limit and I has older PDs). Am I correct in assuming that P has reached the 7% limit - I do not recall top of the mind right now.
Shouldn't the 485 Inventory Report be out by now? Last year's report was as of Oct 1st.
So I was reading Ron's Forum and I came across the following:
Obviously, people were skeptical and asked the to explain - and his explanation is something worth reading:Quote:
For once, the demand data is a more valuable predictor. Given the historic number of visas given to Indian EB2 applicants and the number of pending cases, I think that movement deep into 2009 this fiscal year should not be a problem.
It is amazing that for someone who is in the industry and has a widely read forum, he is so much off base. No consideration of the carryover EB2ROW and porting demand from last year, no discussion of increased demand from EB1 - just a blanket assertion with an arbitrary date. His explanation makes no sense and there is no way we are touching "deep 2009" in FY2012.Quote:
Looking at historic data, the pre-2009 demand for India EB2 is about 80% of what Indian applicants get annually. Because of the age of those cases, I suspect that perhaps as many at 15 to 20 per cent of them are no longer active and will not receive visas. There will be new "upgrade" cases coming on line as priority dates advance, but keep in mind that it takes the USCIS a while to close out these types of cases. If someone has a pending I-485, the case can be closed quickly if the applicant knows what to do (which most don't) and acts promptly. For new I-485 cases that will be filed in response to cutoff dates moving forward, count on those taking between six and twelve months to get approved. Since cutoff date movement is controlled in large part by actual visa issuances (demand), I don't see these cases really having any effect on FY2013 cutoff date movement.
Link: http://www.immigration-information.c...ad.php?t=18349
@Ron's post - why would someone show up in demand data (i.e. file an I485) if they don't have an active offer?
I think 2012 EB1 numbers are not indicative of the EB1 demand because of the delay in 140 approvals in 2011, and they all applied for 485 in 2012. I still think 2013 quota should see EB2I moving at least to May/June 2008, if not more (We know good number of people upto March 2008 already got greened). But i agree with you, going deep into 2009 is un-imaginable at this point.
This is the conspiracy-theory-guy in my talking, but perhaps CO/DHS/USCIS realize the absurdness of EB3I PDs in 2002s (10+ year wait). If they let the status-quo go on and not get new inventory for EB3ROW/C/M this FY- then say 15K visas land into the lap of EB3I in Sept. That would take EB3I PD up by about 2.5 years to a 2004 number (8+ year wait) - which would still be infuriating but at least understandable given that EB2I has a 5+ year wait.
Of course, as we reach closer to the possibility, EB3ROW/C/M folks will raise enough stink (and rightfully so from their point of view) that this will never happen. I guess porting is the only option left for EB3I.
Folks - I have shifted all the posts regarding EB3 to EB2 porting and whether it is right or not in its own thread - so that we can keep the main thread clean and on focus.
You can continue the discussion here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...or-and-Against
Thanks.
Gurus - I read some data about porting and have been troubled after that. I read somewhere that CO had said that only in the month of February 2012 USCIS processed 336 applications with PD of 2005. If this is true then porting is exploding right? All these case have to be interfiling cases correct? that were tackled by USCIS in Feb. If porting is so huge then how would dates ever move? Another concern is I looked at May 2012 485 inventory and I see that EB1 usage is double than last year. So what does that mean for SOFAD? The situation looks almost hopeless to me. BTW my PD is EB2 Feb 2005 and with all this I am reading I am no hopeful about my own date. Please someone give me some hope
2005 FEB appears too old as quite a few up to 2007 were cleared early this year, unless you have ported recently or your case was held in audits etc.
But my opinion is that EB2-ROW might contribute to a very good spill over as usual and my guess in minimum 10,000 which will easliy clear dates upto early 2008. But not sure if will happen in December/January 2013 with quarterly spill over and year end spill over.
Only Gurus can explain.