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[QUOTE=druvraj;9799]Q,
If USCIS and/or DOL are eager for BTM why not move the dates in one shot give people a 30 day window and then retrogress?
Benefits of moving dates in one shot
1. Get demand data at the start of year.
2. Less complaints/confusion and more clear way forward for visa year 2012.
3. USCIS used to this way.
Drawbacks
CO will not be able to screw your life :)
Veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I totally agree with you. I think it's a bit to early to jump on any conclusion but based on the trackitt trends for the first couple of days, there seems to be no indication of any quarterly spillover. So far, there are only 1 - 2 approvals and both seems to be older PDs (EB3->EB2 porting cases) which probably weren't approved last year because all the visas were used up. So, we might be back to the FB visa date trend where forward movement happens until Dec followed by retrogression in Jan bulletin.
druvraj - i (and many others on this forum) would've done a BTM like you mention below :) But we are at somebody else's mercy unfortunately.Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
If you read carefully, the total is 100%. But as you can see the way I phrased it puts the probability of exactly 3 months movement at ZERO!Quote:
Originally Posted by cbpds1
Sorry was multitasking !!
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
The biggest drawback is the USCIS indicating problems with having huge inflows of applications and having to receipt them, start processing of EAD/AP to adhere to their SLAs. I think only reason DOS would stagger the movement is for USCIS convenience.Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
Nishant,Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
I don't think 10k-15k additional is huge for USCIS compared to 300k received in July 2007.
Considering the fact that EB1 demand is down (about the same number above) USCIS should not see any big change in workload.
Thanks Veni. This augurs well for big movement then.
There is no reason then why we should limit ourselves to 3 months, just because the first intake was 3 months, or the FB intake comparably done was 3 months. FB is mostly CP, and DOS has more handle on its demand.
If its quarterly SO on their mind, then it would be 0 or minimal. I am not giving good chance to quarterly SO.
If its not quarterly SO on their mind, then the movement should be reaching end of 2007 at least either in one VB or two VB.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I seriously doubt they intend to approve the cases that become current in this month. I only saw 2 approvals on EB2-C. I suspect they will not approve more than several hundreds cases in this month. Quarterly spillover has very small possibility.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Agree. I think it's possible DOS wants to move PD slowly to make it convenient for USCIS. It's kind of difficult to send receipts/EAD/AP if 20k people rush into their system. I think 5k-10k per month is reasonable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Yes, although Veni pointed out its not that bad, it's still my gut feeling that USCIS is throttling the intake and stopping CO from going gung-ho.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
The early approval trend does not seem to be great on Trackitt either, there are EB2 ROW, EB1 and EB3 approvals, the EB2-I approvals are for PWMB's who filed in the previous months or older cases. No one in the range from Apr 15 to Jul 15th has been approved yet for EB2 I/C let’s wait and watch. Also it will be interesting to see the approval rates of EB2 ROW and EB1 this month.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Last time 300k took them almost 1-2 years to process. I think maybe 10k per month is a comfortable number for USCIS.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
yes, one EB2-C case with PD March 15 2007 and the other one is PD April 17 2007. I don't see huge approvals on mitbbs. We have to see what will happen later this week.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
yes, I agree. Last time CO said that he was planning to move PD to July in the last bulliten of FY 2011, but USCIS stopped him and claimed they found large number of old cases. I think maybe CO intends to move PD faster, but USCIS does not want him to do that. It's a battle.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
N.... I am seeing inflation of hopes again....Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
"July 2007" is the "best" date ever previously reached for EB2IC to-date. So let's see what DOS/USCIS going to do when they pass that best ever date, one long jump ("BTM") or multiple shot jumps followed by "TBM".Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Isn't 140/12 ~ 12K should be normal monthly workload for USCIS.. They are used to getting 100k applications on first day/week for H1Bs and issuing receipt notices to them.. I know it is little different but I think workload should not be much of concern.. (truly speaking I want them to do BTM for my own sake)..
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
veni...the usual practice once you have your best date ever... is to propose for long term relation ;-) = take in lot of apps(responsibilities) and process one by one ...Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Quote:
Originally Posted by evoori
Agree, sooner or later they have to do BTM for EB2IC, assuming similar to past couple of years SOFAD trend for this FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
It would be better for agencies as well as for the applicants if they do it beginning of the FY as opposed to beginning of spillover season.
Yes agree, and I think we should be blamed for it. We should let USCIS alone and stop creating pressure throuh SRs and Senators, but then wait is so long for us that as soon as we see 'C' against our PD, we go crazy and goo-goo-gaga and just want to get GC asap.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
This is a very practical reason pointed out by you, and as you said, can't blame the applicant from doing that also.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaumack
Can someone provide some insights. Posted it in the old thread few days back. Thanks for the idea SmileBaba :) Saw you re-posting your post and then i thought, i can do that too.
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09-22-2011 09:55 PM #7889 GhostWriter
First post here. I have been following this great forum for a few months now, my PD is far away (EB2-I, end of 2009) so was watching from the pavilion. Thanks to Q and all other gurus here for the great analysis. I signed up today to view Spec's latest miracle. Also have a few questions
- I was going through the data section and noticed the very small number of Perms for China vs India after 2008. So is there a chance that EB2-C will get current sooner and then only EB2-I will be the only category to use spillover.
- Are SOFAD numbers for last 3-4 years listed somewhere (couldn't find in the data section, please point me to the link, i might have overlooked it).
Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
Although EB2-C have a much smaller number of applications in the backlog, it is too many for them to become Current ahead of EB2-I, as the current system works.Quote:
- I was going through the data section and noticed the very small number of Perms for China vs India after 2008. So is there a chance that EB2-C will get current sooner and then only EB2-I will be the only category to use spillover.
Although the normal allocation will will take them to a later Cut Off Date than EB2-I, it isn't enough to make them Current. When Spillover starts, it goes to the earliest PD, so EB2-I catches up.
As EB2-C normal allocation takes their COD further ahead, they receive less spillover.
The spillover interpretation changed with effect for FY2008. Here are the figures for FY2008 to FY2010:Quote:
- Are SOFAD numbers for last 3-4 years listed somewhere (couldn't find in the data section, please point me to the link, i might have overlooked it).
------------------ CHINA -------------------------- INDIA -------------------------- CHINA & INDIA
-------------------FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 ----- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 ----- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010
Normal Allocation - 3,257 --- 2,803 --- 3,016 ------ 3,257 --- 2,803 --- 3,016 ------ 6,514 --- 5,606 --- 6,032
Spillover --------- 3,698 ----- 242 --- 3,489 ----- 11,549 --- 7,303 -- 16,945 ----- 15,247 --- 7,545 -- 20,434
SOFAD ------------- 6,955 --- 3,045 --- 6,505 ----- 14,806 -- 10,106 -- 19,961 ----- 21,761 -- 13,151 -- 26,466
Thanks for both the answers Spec, very helpful for my beginner level understanding.
Didn't know that SOFAD for 2009 was so much less that 2008 and 2010, hope we don't see that again. Was SOFAD in similar range of 25K for recently ended 2011 as well.
Once again your chart from last month is simply amazing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
GhostWriter,Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
Glad you found it useful.
I think the general consensus is that SOFAD for EB2-IC for FY2011 was about 30k (give or take).
We won't know the true figure until January, when the DOS Visa Statistics are usually published.
Thanks Spec.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Veni001, I agree with this statement for PWMBs: "Since all new filings will not get into pipeline for at-least 3 months"
But, I think there are not many of us in the current VB.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Leo,Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
The movement from 15APR07 to 15JUL07 may have introduced about 2.1k PWMB for EB2-IC. That's about 26% of the total numbers for that movement.
Leo,Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
Considering PERM approvals after July 2007 and other's who missed July 2007 filing deadline, EB2IC-PWMB filings for October 2011 should be around 3K.
Spec has already replied about the improbability of EB2C becoming current since their demand is still more than the annual quota and spillover rules will make EB2I catch up with EB2C. However, it would effectively mean that EB2I will receive ALMOST ALL of the spillover. EB2C will move enough with normal quota and most of the spillover will be consumed just to make EB2I catch up with EB2C. It is possible that in a year or so, all the spillover is not enough to catch up with EB2C and then EB2I will get ALL the spillover. EB2C does not need to e current for EB2I to get all the spillover.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
That's very true. Very good summary.
Lets paint the flip side of it. If EB2C demand falls below annual quota, they will become current but then EB2C will no longer stand out a separate category. Rather they will become part of EB2ROW and EB2ROW's quota will increase by 2.8K. That will actually bode well for EB2C since then there won't be any quarterly limit they will be subjected to. It will dramatically improve their cycle time. Its quite tragic how a demand difference of couple of thousand could possibly improve EB2C's plight today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Good point imdeng, thanks. Noticed that in the different spillovers consumed by EB2-I and Eb2-C provided by spec. So basically if any other country besides India or China were to lose the "current" status, it would be almost impossible for them to get it back since the spillover will go in the order of PDs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
I think EB2-C demand will be a little more than 2800, so it's difficult to become current. I think maybe the annual demand will equal annual supply. Basically PD for EB2C will move forward one year in one year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Tonight I saw 5 extra EB-2C approvals and they have PD ranging from April to July. It looks like they are not approving based PD and it's like random.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
This scenario is quite improbable though since there is enough accumulated demand in EB2C. Even if regualar yearly demand becomes less than 2800, only the difference will go towards backlog reduction and without any significant spillover (since EB2I will get most of that in this scenario) - it will be decade or more before EB2C becomes part of EB2ROW. Still - we do seem to me moving in that direction.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Yup - once a country becomes backlogged, it will likely remain backlogged unless their regular demand drops significantly before accumulated backlog becomes too large. South Korea is probably a candidate to join India and China soon.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
It will be interesting to see how much lead EB2C PD will take over EB2I PD before spillover season makes then catch up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Wow - 2009 was a horrible year. 2010 was decent only because of 10K FB bounty. Both years we received no spillover from EB1. BTW, in 2009 South Korea got more EB2s (4991) than China (3045). In fact, South Korea got more EB3s that India and China combined! Wow - that is messed up!!
By all accounts, we have had the best SOFAD in history. EB1 is key to the trend continuing - I hope it does.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
imdeng,Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
I don't think it will be a factor this year.
DOS demand for the movement to date uses most of it up even without PWMB and once we reach 01AUG07, it will have been exceeded.
Trackitt is also showing a couple of EB2 I approvals with PD May and June. It's definitely random.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan